Friday 3:39 AM

Best overall harmony of Pegging, Hand, and Crib.

Friday 4:09 AM

This is one of those don’t overthink it hands-it’s not very good so just make the best of the situation-don’t go for the miracle 7 cut to look like a genius

Friday 4:27 AM

Steady Ready go. dec

Friday 4:42 AM

Trying to not kill my own crib.

Friday 5:23 AM

A reasonable hand with some reason for optimism in the crib.

Friday 5:30 AM

I’m not going for the miracle seven cut, I’m seeding the crib. Also, A,5,6,7,8,9 helps my hand and all the 10 cards help the crib.

Friday 5:53 AM

Cannot win a game on 1st street, but you can lose it. Lets not futz around shooting for gut cards. Disappointing cut. Peg like a maniac.

Friday 5:58 AM

I accidentally selected the wrong cards to toss, but I meant to toss 6Q to hold 2588. Hate it when that happens in online play. That’s one of the ways I (and probly most ppl) do better irl than online, it’s easy to click the wrong cards, or lose track of whose crib it is, which pretty much never happens in a live game.

That said I’ll “bite” yet again. With these cards I might well want a bit of offense in the pegging, so 256Q is kinda tempting on that front for its eleven. And 2688 is tempting for its huge cuts and great crib toss. I’m assuming the bot will narrowly favor something like that, but that doesn’t mean it’s right.

Checking Liam, this keep is tied with 2688 (5Q). But I’d rather keep the five in hand for an easy fifteen, and prefer real points to speculative points all else being equal. If choosing a maximal defense strategy from the get-go (not the right move with cards that average only 11 in hand+crib imo)… even there, I don’t see a massive difference between 2688 and 2588. There’s always risk of the five getting paired, much less of a risk of its getting trapped in a run with this configuration, but I think the offensive upside of a five-in-hand outweighs this, and 2688 could run into trouble against some mid hands. Also, a hand like 2588 is usually good for “holding” the five and pairing pone’s as the last play, if I do end up on max defense to the cut.

The bot probably favors 2688 (5Q) but the numbers will likely be well within the margin for error.

With the cut I’ll play balanced, i.e. play to what happens without going crazy in either direction. But usually when I go in saying “balanced” I end up playing defense or offense, based on the opportunities presented. I’d definitely pair an 8, I’d even fifteen a seven, I’d fifteen a X, I wouldn’t pair a deuce. Usually when pone leads an ace or deuce, it is from a pair – despite good players’ tendency to hold these cards for later, as JQT rightly pointed out, it is also really common to lead from a pair for various reasons. It seems like usually, or anyway a lot of the time, when I forego pairing an ace or deuce lead, I end up seeing his second ace or deuce soon enough.

5.) 53*-50

+11/-9, our “balanced” game continues. Maybe I’ll win for once.

I had an easy throw, the AK balk to own crib to hold 59TJ. Sometimes you just have to forget about the crib and keep the points.

Denmark also had an easy one, throwing the risky 9T to hold 3455. Definitely worth it.

The cut was the wrong 4. So I have a decent 7 point hand and A4K?? in the crib, I’m playing balanced. Denmark holding 16 points ofc plays full offense. So it’s Denmark as pone with 3455 vs me dealing with 59TJ

Pegging went: 4-9(13)-3(16)-J(26)-5(31-2)//T-5(15-2)-5(20-3)

The four lead makes sense, but a three would probably be a little better; I think a five lead also makes sense. A two on none isn’t likely holding all lower ranks, and leading a five leaves you with more diversity for later. But leading a four (or three) leaves you the (rather distant) possibility of pairing your own fives in the first series. Also, an eight response to a four or three lead is pretty common. I’d cautiously suggest that the four/three lead might score a little more on average, but a five lead would more likely result in a big coup.

Anyway, to a four lead, I follow my “anything but a X” rule of thumb and play the nine as I’m sure anyone else would. When he makes the count sixteen, the risk of giving up a 31 with a X reply is certainly lower than the risk of a trap if I play my five. He does get the 31 for two, but if I’d have played my five, he would have tripled it with his pair for seven. The rest of the play was straightforward.

So I had a seven point hand and a four point A49TK in the crib, good stuff for AK, leaving me pone at 67.

Denmark pegged four, great for pone, and held 16. So he’s dealing right around par at 70*.

6.) 67-70*

The game is no longer balanced… as long as my cards don’t suck, I’m on defense.

I tossed Denmark 3Q to hold 55JJ. 3Q does decently in normal circumstances, and with two fives and two Jacks gone it’s a heavy balk comparable to 8K. So much for “key connectors”. Even though the position is defensive, my 8 point surplus can’t sustain discarding for defensive pegging, and anyway the crib side would probably outweigh that.

Denmark made a booboo here, tossing himself KK to hold 888K. I suspect he was thinking of the pegging (two-card sixteen), but that doesn’t outweigh the superiority of 88 over KK as a crib toss.

The cut was the wrong 7. So Denmark is grinning over there, the proverbial Danish luck; for me, my 12 point hand is certainly strong enough to play defense even with a missing cut.

Pegging went: J-8(18)-5(23)-8(31-2)//5-K(15-2)-J(25-1)//8(1)

I led the Jack. “What happened to prevent defense?” I don’t think this is a prevent defense score, but a normal defense score :)

My five reply to his eight was… questionable. But I got away with it. In the moment, I was thinking “that Danish bastard is going for the eleven!” But I should have been more concerned with his holding 348? and thus trapping my five. Then again, the risk of a trap now has to be weighed against the risk of holding 55 for later. Overall, though, I suspect playing my other Jack would have been a bit smarter – say he had a 34 five trap, he’d be forced to spoil it for a 31 saving me a point. But it didn’t matter much in this case.

In the second series, having seen two eights, I lead the “Colvert five”. Damn you Colvert!

Denmark’s Kings don’t improve at all in his crib, but he held a 12 point hand. I also had a 12 point hand. So the score next hand is 80*-89, -15/+4. At least my surplus has increased so I can likely play heavy defense with success, at +11 versus the +8 it was. But Denmark is running away with the game at 89. Much defense is called for.

Friday 6:18 AM

Well, at least I have my minimum of 7 pts as dealer of first hand...the difference between (5 Q) and (6 Q) is so great, however, that I wouldn't protest too much for going this way. There is a small chance you could get stuck with a 2-pt hand and 2-pt crib, but there is also quite a good chance it can outperform this way. Probably not a critical decision on first street, so I'll go with the typical mrob line, and "not overthink it".

Friday 6:37 AM

Not hoping for a cut, hoping for a crib.

Friday 7:21 AM

Probably did overthink this one. I knew that throwing the 8-8 would probably lead to a lower expected average than throwing the 2-6 or 5-Q, but thought it might be sufficiently close that keeping the 5-6 for the pegging would nudge 8-8 ahead. Having looked at Discard Pro, though, the gap (one whole point) in expected averages is almost certainly too large a gap to bridge.

Friday 7:40 AM

I call this hand a "three-point fifteen" as you have three cards that total 15 and if you cut any of the 3 then your hand goes from 6 to 12 (with a very occasional 14). Will play this out on CribPro but not now - gotta run errands...

Friday 7:55 AM

Keeping it simple by playing the highest point hand I was given.

Friday 8:36 AM

One of the crowd, I kept the best hand and threw 6 Q to do its best in my crib.

Friday 8:36 AM

Friday 5:22 PM

I think the main two contenders here are 2-5-8-8 (6-Q) and 2-6-8-8 (5-Q) but I'll also look at 2-8-8-Q (5-6), 2-5-8D-Q (6-8S) and 2-5-6-Q (8-8):

2-5-8-8: 6pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.23) = 9¼pts

2-6-8-8: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 8½pts

2-8-8-Q: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 8½pts

2-5-8-Q: 4pts + 4½pts (Schell: 4.63) = 8½pts

2-5-6-Q: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.45) = 7¾pts

Potential:

2-5-8-8: Improves with 222, 555, 7777, 88 + 15xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 10/12pts with 222, 555, 7777, 88 = 12 cuts.

2-6-8-8: Improves with AAAA, 222, 555, 666, 7777, 88, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 6/14pts with AAAA, 555, 7777, 88 = 13 cuts.

2-8-8-Q: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 7777, 88, QQQ = 19 cuts = 19/46 = 41.3% up to 6/8pts with 555, 7777, 88 = 9 cuts.

2-5-8-Q: Improves with 222, 3333, 555, 7777, 88 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 8/10pts with 222, 555, 88, QQQ = 11 cuts.

2-5-6-Q: Improves with 222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 88, 9999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/7pts with 222, 4444, 555, 7777 = 14 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is at 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to reach the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think all these hands will peg quite well but I think 2-5-6-Q will peg best with a magic eleven.

Summary:

2-5-8-8 is best for starting value by ¾pt and although 2-5-6-Q has the most cuts for improvement 2-5-8-8 has 12 cuts for 10/12pts. Even though 2-6-8-8 has 13 cuts for 6/14pts I still think 2-5-8-8 will perform best so I'll throw the 6-Q.

Friday 5:25 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
2-6-8-8____4.26+(-2.04)+6.69=8.91____47.0____33.2
2-5-8-8____8.04+(-2.20)+2.94=8.78____47.7____33.3
2-5-8D-Q___5.96+(-2.11)+4.63=8.48____46.1____32.6
2-5-6-Q____4.74+(-2.02)+5.37=8.09____45.1____32.0
2-8-8-Q____3.35+(-2.26)+6.75=7.84____44.9____30.1

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
2-6-8-8_______25.1____26.3
2-5-8-8_______24.8____25.7
2-5-8D-Q______25.9____27.3
2-5-6-Q_______26.7____28.5
2-8-8-Q_______24.3____27.8

2-6-8-8 is best for expected averages by 0.13pt. However, 2-5-8-8 is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So, as it's the very beginning of the game I'll decide based on the expected averages and select 5-Q to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Friday 5:49 PM

Possibility of cutting the 7 combined with the 5 = 10 throw made up for the initial loss of two points in my mind.

Friday 9:41 PM

Not much to add here. JQT started the day with an excellent analysis and chose 5-Q to discard and HalscribCLX echoes to close. It matters not if choosing offense or defense, the 5-Q is the correct choice, though in offense or optimal it is a "push". You can know if it works this way with 5-Q, all other 5-X combinations do even better with 5-J at 7.088, 5-K at 6.726, and 5-10 at 6.698. Play defense to the lead although would 15-2 a 9 lead. Otherwise, the 2 would go on mid card leads, thinking dealer would fare better if showing the mid-cards later. Would play the 8 on J-Q-K lead and the 2 on 10 lead. On most mall card leads would play the 8, the 6 on a trey lead, and drop that lone deuce as second card played. Might give up a pair at that point. Holding it until end of pegging sequence after seeing small n/d cards on table would likely cost me far more.