Friday 4:33 AM

I can't easily give 3-4 to the dealer in this position. Choosing to toss 4-10 and keeping a run of three.

   

Friday 4:36 AM

Definitely not keeping the 4 card run to discard the dangerous 3-4- slightly prefer the 3789-if you lead the 3 and it’s matched you obviously have the 9 for 15- there is a chance you can run your 78 for 3 if dealer has 3 littles and a picture

   

Friday 5:04 AM

Less riskier discard. Chance for twelve still. Three lead for a check play. dec

   

Friday 5:31 AM

I don't like tossing my opponent 34. Usually makes a bang. I kept the 4 to lead.

   

Friday 5:34 AM

Alright Colvert I’ll try it your way for the thousandth time… and if I get screwed over just once more, then that’s it!
If you read 0-0* as -6/+11, I think it’s a no-brainer to go this way. The defensive gap of 34 vs 4T or 3T isn’t going to outweigh the superior hand; and I’d say the same thing about the relatively poor defensive and offensive pegging of 789T.

If you read it as -8/+8, probably more of a case to hedge a little bit. Even then, though, I would favor this way. The behind player in a balanced score should etc.

The cut makes me very glad I went this way, even with the 34 in his crib. A five cut should incline you to strong offense at 0-0* no matter what – dealer will usually be pushed up too much for defense to be worth it. Eight lead, go for the ol’ mid-card exchange, for all that it’s highly unfavorable for pone. Starting dealer is pretty far away from shortening the game, so you have space to be a little wild when the situation calls for it.

Yeah sure 4789 or 3789 have cuts for 12. But this is twice as likely to score 12 or more. When your scoring and oppo’s are roughly equally important, and you’re pone, I think you shouldn’t be overly worried about the crib when you can hold a much better hand. The calculus isn’t my hand versus his crib, but my overall scoring compared to the average, versus his overall scoring compared to his average. And when you look at it like that, the crib is just less important than your hand.

I was surprised yesterday that the bot went with an optimal strategy at that spot, but it often does things like that – for example, it’ll read a score as offensive, then switch to defense with a favorable cut, even though most of the humans wouldn’t. I thought A249 would be a better offensive pegger than A559, but the bot didn’t report those numbers; might well be wrong. But to me, the potential for a x-5-5-5 exchange would pull it ahead (though not actually bridge the gap); A249 can trap lows, but not as much as a lot of other LLLM/X hands.

Asked my brother which way he’d throw and he said “either 24 or 55.” You can only pick one dingus! Asked my friend at work, who you could call a skilled kitchen table player, and he thought it was obvious to toss 55. Not to me man, A249 is a very lame hand averaging under 5 points, but at least I know better now.

Third hand of the game with Inushtuk, 32*-22.

I dealt myself 34799K, and naturally threw 34. It’s usually a heart-breaker of a crib toss, but surely the best option there. Hand/crib throw are weak enough that I would play defense even if the cut hit one or the other.

Inushtuk had a much more interesting decision and he spent some time thinking about it. A235KK. I’d say there are three good, defensible choices here:

1.) Toss A2 to hold 35KK. Fairly safe crib throw, and still a solid hand averaging 8.0. Not a great pegger, but not the worst. You have a shot at parleying your kings, or a five exchange.

2.) Toss A5 to hold 23KK, lead the K. This is +0.3 over the 35KK for hand mean. But is that really worth the dangerous throw, even at 22-32*? Leading the X from 23XX usually doesn’t work, though when it does work, it works quite well. Of the three, I like this least.

3.) Throw 5K to hold A23K, lead the K. Call it the mad bomber option. This averages 7.8 for the hand; I think the pegging would make it on top for your own scoring; but is it worth it to throw something as dangerous as 5K? That could push dealer so far up he’s threatening to shorten the game.

It’s tough, but I do like to make desperate plays in desperate situations; some days I would throw 5K, some I would throw A2.

Inushtuk went with the more reasonable A2 to hold 35KK in this particular game.

The cut was a six. Nice, a six point hand now for me, but probably a lame crib. And doesn’t help Inushtuk at all. So I’m on defense, and I’m sure he was on offense, hoping to stay enough forward that a lucky great hand or pegging coup could get him back in the game later.

So it’s my 799K vs his 35KK. Pegging went:

3-9(12)-K(22)-9(31-2)//5-K(15-2)-K(25-3)//7(1)

I think there are good arguments for either the trey lead or the K lead. The K lead is going for a five-exchange; the trey lead is going for a two-on-none with the kings. When you consider that I’m going to go out of my way *not* to take a fifteen at this score, if I can, the trey lead looks pretty smart. Offensive pone pegging is difficult in the best of circumstances; it’s really hard if your opponent is playing defense, and you’re holding a fairly poor pegger like 35KK.
For my response – I have 99, 7, or K to choose from. The K’s out; and I don’t really like the seven or the nine much more. The seven because pone tends to hold a five; and the nine because pone tends to lead from a pair. In this case since I have two nines; and 79K looks safeish to hold going ahead; and if he doesn’t have another trey, but plays a X, I’ll get a 31; I played a nine.

Inushtuk played his K; I do think you could argue for playing the five, keeping the KK together, but I acknowledge that it’s a reach of a plan. Writing up that one game with Bozo Mae helped me think more about the second series for sure, since he stomped me bad with that kind of reasoning. You might say “why not play the K and keep the 5K together for later instead?” It’s generally better to save the higher cards for a two-on-none; makes more space for oppo to play his out.

Then I get my cheap 31 with my other nine.

In the second series, Inushtuk leads the “Colvert” 5. It does seem that when the mids you’re seeing from oppo include a nine, the five lead tends to give up a fifteen and not even dodge a trap. But I’m not convinced enough and play it both ways. Also depends on exactly what I see from oppo.

I of course take the fifteen rather than play my seven… and I’ve already seen a K so it’s sort of safe.

But no, Inushtuk does have the third King, gets a pair and a go. Then I play my seven for last.

In the show – Inushtuk counts his six point hand; plus his three in the pegging, he’ll be dealing at 31*.

I got my six point hand; in the crib, the 34 met Inushtuk’s A2 and a 6 cut to make six points, pretty good. Plus five in the pegging, I’m at 49.

So 49-31*, things haven’t changed much. I’m primarily thinking defense, but still have an eye on jumping ahead entirely. Inushtuk has to play white knuckle offense to have a shot at beating the cards, which have not been very fair to him so far.

   

Friday 5:44 AM

Good morning, just couldn't see the 3/4 going to them likely giving them a chance at more points than I'm holding. Kept the 4 for the lead.

   

Friday 5:52 AM

My thinking @ 0-0* is ..if you can’t make it better then don’t make it worse. The 3/10 & 4/10 are on Ras’s list of 46 Pone discards averaging under five ..the 3/4 is NOT. Only 21/46 cuts help my keep and the five is one of them! In a further attempt to not self destruct, I will stay away from mid card leads that might cause a pegging war. So play the trey ..survive the first deal and advance to better hands 🤞

   

Friday 6:07 AM

3-4-7-8 is a hand with plenty of potential growth prospects, and a protected lead in the 4 card. Sadly, 9-T has plenty of potential growth prospects of its own.

4-T and lead the 3.

   

Friday 7:06 AM

4-10 to the crib for me

   

Friday 7:09 AM

I'm with Colvet (and horus). As pone first deal, full on offence. I need to get down the board as fast as I can, and the aggressive 3-4 toss leaves me with 6 points with a chance at 14.

Cut bites me, but such is life. I hope this is not one of those hands that RAS refers to when he mentions something like 30% of all games are won/lost on the first hand.

   

Friday 7:11 AM

echo. No need for a 4 card run here to give away 3-4. Toss even cards when I get the choice, and tossing 3's scares me lol

   

Friday 7:25 AM

I took the 4 card run bait and I’m ok with that at 0-0

   

Friday 8:23 AM

I read it as -8/+8 and will hedge. Whether I keep the 3, or the 4, both leads are covered. I kept the 3 only because it's a key connector. Whether that is best mathematically I don't know. Lead the 3.

   

Friday 9:27 AM

I kept the run and threw 3 4. I had no idea whether to throw 3 or 4 with the 10, so kept the 10.

   

Friday 10:10 AM

I chose this way because I prefer the 4 / 7 play over the 3 / 9. But 3,7,8,9, also works for me.

   

Friday 10:22 AM

I like 4-10 as it gives me a safe lead.

   

Friday 1:01 PM

I would sacrifice 1 point for the longer run and keep the small connector card. Would much rather throw (4 10) than (3 4) suited.

   

Friday 1:57 PM

Thank you for your comments today.

   

Friday 2:36 PM

Majority isn't always correct. Two square cards to the dealer.

   

Saturday 1:05 AM

I think I'll look at 7-8-9-10 (3-4), 4-7-8-9 (3-10), 3-7-8-9 (4-10) and 3-4-7-8 (9-10):

7-8-9-10: 6pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.96) = +¼pt

4-7-8-9: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.63) = +½pt

3-7-8-9: 5pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.53) = +½pt

3-4-7-8: 4pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = -1¼pts

Potential:

7-8-9-10: Improves with 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 9/12/14pts with 6666, 777, 888, 999, 101010 = 16 cuts.

4-7-8-9: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 101010 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 444, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 16 cuts.

3-7-8-9: Improves with 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 101010 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 333, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 16 cuts.

3-4-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 31 cuts = 31/46 up to 7/8/9/10pts with 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 27 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is at 18pts so I'll play Offense.
Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 7-8-9-10 will peg best.


Summary:

4-7-8-9 and 3-7-8-9 are best for starting value by ¼pt over 7-8-9-10. However 3-4-7-8 has by far the most cuts for improvement and 27 cuts for 7-10pts. It also should peg well so I'll throw the 9-10.

   

Saturday 1:06 AM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
4-7-8-9____7.13+1.43+(-4.68)=3.88____24.6____23.0
3-7-8-9____7.13+1.15+(-4.52)=3.76____24.4____23.3
7-8-9-10___8.35+1.24+(-5.87)=3.72____26.8____22.8
3-4-7-8____6.63+1.33+(-5.37)=2.59____23.3____20.7

Offense______L9 %____L10 %
4-7-8-9_______38.3____51.4
3-7-8-9_______37.4____50.8
7-8-9-10______41.1____52.0
3-4-7-8_______40.4____53.9

4-7-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.12pt. and although 7-8-9-10 is best for Win %s and 3-7-8-9 is very slightly lowest for Loss %s as it's the start of the game I'll decide based on expected averages and select 3-10 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead the 8 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Points
8______________________1.33
9______________________1.26
4______________________1.23
7______________________1.10