Saturday 3:20 AM

A tough one this morning. I'll take a stab in the dark at 4467. 4d lead.

   

Saturday 3:36 AM

Definitely a tough choice this morning. I am going with the flush.

   

Saturday 4:46 AM

A-4 is best compromise. Oppo is nearly out of sight already.

   

Saturday 4:54 AM

Got to play offense potential here so the flush is my keep here. Lately that A-4 discard rarely goes over four in my games. Rewarded lets take a chunk of that lead off. dec

   

Saturday 5:37 AM

Cheers to all on International Cribbage Day and thanks to Sir John Suckling ♠️♦️♣️♥️

   

Saturday 5:49 AM

I fell in love with the flush too.

   

Saturday 6:21 AM

To win from this score, we have to gamble on offense. And I wouldn’t be close to giving up on a win. If you’re concerned about a skunk – cards are strong enough that offense will probably work just as well as defense or better. We’re right on par to dodge a skunk in the front, so a lot of the time winning and dodging a skunk require opposite strategies, but not necessarily here.

Keep 446 together hoping for a five cut? No thanks. This, too, has big cuts, and with a better starting hand.

A46 eleven? Four points in the bag, right? Not so. It’s a nice feature; especially when I’m on defense, it’ll make it more palatable to muck up my hand. But on the offensive side, isn’t really worth so much when you’re comparing it to a better hand, as the bot’s own numbers indicate, and as you would expect based on the actual frequency of XX hands and so on. Whatever hand you’re comparing it to has some kind of offensive potency of its own, maybe something that’s harder to see. So yeah A446 is an okay pegger, but 4679 is no dud, and I just don’t think it’ll bridge the gap in the show.

What about defense? We simply can’t afford it; I’ll even throw something nuts like 5X if I feel I have to at a spot like this, and hope it’ll give up only a 4-6 crib, or that oppo will have a bad hand anyway – and this is not such a wild wager, especially when your odds of winning are only ~10%. A4 is down there with KK as one of the safest point-containing throws to dealer, and though I seem to have bad luck with it, don’t doubt Ras and others on that one.

That said – throwing A9 to hold 4467 isn’t so off-base and would not be surprised if some people go that way. You get a balk in oppo’s crib, and you have potential to score well. It still seems to give up too much, to me. Cuts for four could be fatal.

There’s a train of thought that says, “KK starts with two, while A4 is pure angeldust, so it’s much worse and the means are misleading.” There’s some truth to this, the effect just isn’t nearly as big as is sometimes implied. For example, I plugged in a rando hand to discardpro to compare the distributions of A4 and KK: A4 scores 5+ 55% of the time; KK, 50%. A4 score 8+ 27% of the time, KK 31%. A4 scores 12+ 3% of the time, KK 8%. And A4 will score “just 2” 13% of the time; KK, 27%. That *is* a meaningful difference, but I hope you see what I mean, that the means don’t quite mean what people imply that they mean. Even Schell fell into this mistake; I used to write that way too, but Liam opened my eyeballs to the truth.

With that cut – 12 points; probably like many others here I do a quick calculation and say “okay say I peg 0, where will I be?” 63*, still six points south. So I see no room for defense.

But this Is an interesting pegging situation and one of the many I’m not sold about. 4679 – you can lead your seven to entice an 8; and if he does take the bait, play the six not the nine of course, because you don’t want to give up a 31-5, and because if he continues the run with a five, you stomp him with your four.

But a wily opponent will likely not take that 15. He’s much more likely to fifteen your six lead. And maybe, just maybe, you’ll get a 31 out of it too.

So if I was playing Inushtuk, I would lead my six. But if I was playing one of the unwashed masses, I would lead my seven.

Yesterday’s puzzle is a good example of what I’ve been saying about the bot’s “offense” formula – I’m *not* saying that the bot (and most of the commenters) are wrong about that particular discard call, I’m on the fence there. But the 789T underpegs 4789 by 0.19, and outpegs 3789 by 0.09. So its mean overall scoring will be 9.59; 4789’s will be 8.56. Is it really so crazy to say that a hand that scores a point more in averages is better for offense? Of course that’s not to imply that you should straight ignore the crib at 0-0*. But there have been “many such cases”, as Trump would say, where the bot rules on a hand as “better on offense” because it subtracts the crib mean. I think Chesterton would have loved DCH because you can be controversial and common-sensical at the same time.

Alright, fourth hand with Inushtuk, 49-31*.

He dealt me 2334TK. I throw the bogus TK balk. “What do you mean bogus balk? It’s the best balk in the game.” Ras covers this issue pretty well, and so does Schell. If it seems like TK is failing all the time, it isn’t your imagination…

TK will give up an 8+ crib (in this hand, with this delta) 14.8% of the time. That’s exactly the same as the odds of 24 giving up an 8+ crib, which everyone recognizes as not the safest toss. Something that has about as much “kablooie” in it as 24 is not a top shelf balk, and I do avoid throwing it, as well as QK or TQ, if I can help it. Unless I’m in a situation where I really *need* a 0 point crib, as opposed to like a 4 point crib, I think of it as a fairly weak balk.

Of course doesn’t matter much when you have a sixteen point lead, and I wasn’t too shook about it, but it’s worth noting.
Inushtuk had A3359K and makes the clear play, tossing himself 5K.

The cut was a Queen. So with a 12 point hand at 49 – certainly mostly playing defense, but something big in the pegging could get me up there where I’m threatening a front win. And Inushtuk has only a 4 point hand, but with 5QK?? In his crib, surely thinking offense. And really you’d be playing offense no matter what at such a score, unless you really needed to avoid a skunk, in which case I’d play conservatively.

So it’s my 2334 vs his A339. Pegging went:

3-3(6-2)-3(9-6)-3(12-12)-4(16)-9(25)-2(27)-A(28-1)

I lead my three, he pairs me, I triple. I can’t remember the last time I passed on a triple before late third street. I’m not sure about the odds, but seems like I give up a double pair royal maybe every few weeks or once a month or something like that – it’s rare, and six points in the pegging is huge, it’s worth it imo.

Also, in this case, six points in the pegging will push me up to near par in the front. So it’s even more worthwhile than normal; worst case, he gets 12, and he’ll still probably be in the hole; and often I’d get away with it, and be opening up a second path to victory.

But he does get the double pair royal. Oh well that’s the game.

I play my four because if I play my deuce, he could get a 15-5 with his ace.

He plays his nine, probably hoping against hope to pin a stray ace, as well as dodging a run he wouldn’t be able to retaliate against obviously, but na I have the deuce, and he gets last with his ace.

In the show – my 12 points, and six in the pegging, get me up to 67*. Inushtuk had his four point hand; in the crib, his 5K met my TK “balk” and the Queen cut to make 10 points. Call it “King Tut’s Revenge”. Plus 13 in the pegging, he’s at 60.

So at 67*-60, this certainly wasn’t ideal, but I regret nothing! No longer a desperate game for Inushtuk, but a plain ol’ double marginal. He mostly has to play offense, unless he gets a sweet hand+cut, although Hawthorn has tilted me a bit on this question. I can play offense or defense depending on how strong my cards are. More tomorrow!

   

Saturday 6:30 AM

Board position…Goodness gracious Mike..much in need of better card luck..perhaps even better play too? Considered keeping A-4-4-6 because of the cut help especially from all the Xs since we have seen none. ..but it starts with just four points. So..today I am going wasa since the flush seems to be the best part of a bad bargain. Start with six ..but only 20 cut cards help ..have to wonder if this is a desperate enough situation to consider A-9 and 🤞 for a four or five cut? thanks for the puzzle…whatever happens won’t be hard to count!!

   

Saturday 6:43 AM

Best of a bad situation. A446, 4467 and 4469 all looking for a 5 cut for for 14 or 16 points; it gives us 12 with a better starting hand. And we hit for 12 with the 8.

   

Saturday 8:46 AM

Shocked that the 4,4,6,7 with the A/9 toss is not the popular choice.

As always, I hold the flush apart and make the other cards & situation/position dictate why I should not go with the flush.

The A/9 is the best defensive throw and if we hit a 5 or even a 4, life is pretty good! There are 28 cards left in the deck of the remaining 40 that can help us. So, basically a 70% chance of improving this hand with the cut card.

   

Saturday 8:59 AM

Desperation tactics for me at this score...Against the "normal" advice, today I will play for a FAVORABLE cut, as I need to stall my opponent badly, and this combo seems to have the best "5-card" cut insurance that I can think of.... The 8 cut is not that bad, next to a 4 or 5. Hey, at least it's not a face card....Doesn't look like I'll make 3rd street deal, unless dealer foolishly pairs my 4d lead (without having two 4's himself, mind you, which I would worry about more than usual if I find an experienced player doing this against me...). Lead from the "pair" anyway, and let's try and optimize our score while giving away the least possible. We should still have several deals to try and make our way back into this game.

   

Saturday 9:30 AM

New here-so forgive my inexperience. I agree with MiketheExpert, felt A4 dangerous toss, but heard a voice (RAS) saying; don’t forget to flush.

   

Saturday 10:29 AM

If choosing offense, the best keep is A-4-4-6 with 7-9 discard. Combined values favor the 7-9 discard heavily. You're not supposed to cut an 8 spot admittedly. Discarding the A-4 would be my second choice. Will lead the four from the pair although leading the Ace might be better choice retaining 4-4-6. The hand plays well in pegging game in any strategy because of the 3-card "eleven from heaven" (A-4-6).

   

Saturday 2:55 PM

I'll look at 4D-6-7-9 (A-4S), 4-4-6-7 (A-9), 4-4-6-9 (A-7) and A-4-4-6 (7-9):

4D-6-7-9: 6pts - 6pts (Schell: 5.72) = 0pt

4-4-6-7: 4pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.55) = -½pt

4-4-6-9: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.89) = -¾pt

A-4-4-6: 4pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.26) = -1¼pts

Potential:

4D-6-7-9: Improves with 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 10/12pts with 44, 5555, 666, 8888, 999 = 16 cuts. Plus 9 diamond cuts for 1pt for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

4-4-6-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 8/9/12/16pts with 44, 5555, 777, 8888 = 13 cuts.

4-4-6-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 8/14pts with 2222, 44, 5555, 666, 999 = 16 cuts.

A-4-4-6: Improves with AAA, 44, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 44, 5555, 666 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

Position:

We're well behind and opponent is Dealer at 3rd street positional hole. I'll play Offense to try to catch up.

Pegging:

A-4-4-6 has 3 low cards and a middle card with a 3-card magic eleven so I think will peg best.

Summary:

4D-6-7-9 is best for starting value by ½pt over 4-4-6-7 and 1¼pts over A-4-4-6 but A-4-4-6 has by far the most cuts for improvement and has 28 cuts for 8-14pts. Also I think it will peg best so I'll throw the 7-9.

   

Saturday 2:55 PM

At 55-70* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W4 %___W5 %
A-4-4-6____7.57+2.17+(-4.94)=4.80____6.7____15.9
4D-6-7-9___8.41+1.39+(-5.91)=3.89____6.1____13.5
4-4-6-7____6.65+1.33+(-4.35)=3.63____5.0____13.0
4-4-6-9____6.17+1.17+(-4.40)=2.94____3.9____11.9

Offense______L4 %___L5 %
A-4-4-6_______46.6___75.1
4D-6-7-9______52.3___79.7
4-4-6-7_______45.0___78.4
4-4-6-9_______44.3___79.5

A-4-4-6 is best for expected averages by 0.91pt. and is appreciably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 7-9 to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll lead a 4 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Points
4_____________________2.29
A_____________________1.82
6_____________________1.65

   

Saturday 3:26 PM

Flush of course.

   

Sunday 12:10 AM

I wasn’t brave enough to go with the flush and toss A 4.