February 11, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
0*-0  ?
38%
28%
16%
9%
6%
0%
0%
Total votes: 266
scottcribAs my dad would say, there's a whole passel of options today.
Ras2829
5095 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:50 AM
Choosing defense as dealer of hand one, hold A-4-5-6 with discard of 9-10. Play defense to the lead. Play away from small card lead or mid card lead (though take 15-2 on a 9 lead), play the 6 on any X-point lead, close the count for the frequent 31-2 with the 6. Deler has 14 points in hand after seeing the starter card, a guaranteed peg, and a crib of questionable value. The 9-10 to own crib averages 4.398.
Ras2829 says: When considering all possible discards, crib averages 4.8. So, 9-10 is nearly 1/2 point off that average because of the reluctance of n/d to discard a Jack.
Ras2829 says: "play the 6 on any X-point lead, close the count for 31-2 with the 6" What? Make that final 6 a 5!
Ras2829 says: Considered only discards of of A-10 and 9-10. The 9-10 average of 4.398 is nothing to crow about although nearly one point better than A-10 at 3.509.
Rosemarie44 says: Good morning! You paved the way right off the bat.
Eolus619 says: Morning Ras..what is your thinking about the vulnerability of the “dangling” Ace when it comes to pegging?..
Eolus619 says: Ras…plz also answer what is your reply to a four lead thx
MiketheExpert says: It seems to be a rather distasteful decision between pairing the 4 lead, or dropping the A and making the count 5. Odds I think suggest to go for the "distasteful" pair, but could be wrong.
Ras2829 says: Am sorry, looking at my math on the paper I scribbled on early this morning, the 4-5-6-9 had the edge by a full point in potential hand value and gave up slightly less in pegging. Jumped to the second column, retained A-4-5-6 and discarded 9/10. Although my math is somewhat different than HalscribCLX, the figures definitely support the 4-5-6-9. Guess getting on first is not a good thing for me. Oh, yeah and no morning cup of coffee besides.
Rosemarie44 says: I'll ask if you have had your coffee first before reading your comments in the future!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. what if the strategy was offense/
Ras2829 says: HI Inushtuk1: If strategy was offense the choices flip-flop, and 1-4-5-6 has the edge by about the same margin that 4-5-6-9 has the edge if choosing defense. If choosing offense, A-4-5-6 leads in combined values by about .2. Just ran query on Cribbage Prof and agrees in principle. The Prof gives A-4-5-6 the edge if choosing offense by .15.
james500
3863 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 4:07 AM
A9 or AT would allow me to start with two more points in my hand than this arrangement, but I'm hoping the crib comes to my rescue.
mrob2199
1378 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 4:24 AM
Looking for a 4,5 or 6 cut for a huge hand here-the A456 doesn’t peg nearly as well in the dealers hand and 9–10 looks a lot better than it actually plays out-much prefer to go for the bingo cut of the 4 instead, especially in the first hand of the game
Rosemarie44
2039 votes

Joined: March 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 4:56 AM
I originally had decided to toss A-!0 to my crib. But Ras has come on site early and opened another path choosing 9-10 to the crib! I always defer to the "man in authority"!
dec
6291 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 4:59 AM
I respect the pegging prospects with 9/10. Bigger bang with this keep and sill can play defense with this keep. dec
Gougie00
5669 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 5:11 AM
Hold the flush. Everyone's a winner today
RubyTuesday
875 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 5:51 AM
I thought 9 10 would be happiest in my crib, it leaves me with some points and 5 + 6 = 11.
Andy (muesli64)
2210 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 6:09 AM
I assume you had this hand in your dreams? If I am ever dealt this I will throw 9-10. Very little between the two options so I will help the crib.
glmccuskey
4044 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Sunday 6:18 AM
Hard to argue with RAS
MiketheExpert says: I don't like to either, although a little friendly debate or difference of opinion never hurt anybody, lol.
zeke76
1335 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Sunday 6:25 AM
We are all flushed with success today.
Eolus619
1281 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 6:47 AM
Hmmmm…. a great plenty of options indeed Scott. Early on in my cribbage journey , when faced with these six cards , I was advised to hold the nine in case a deuce was cut ..so that’s what i have been doing..I can also hear JQT’s voice fussing about that lone “dangling” Ace..I see Mr. Ras has another way for me to consider…

oh….wasa please don’t tell me you didn’t flush today❗️❗️
wasa says: Almost always pays to flush!
Jazzselke
2551 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 7:09 AM
Will follow a couple guidelines, both already mentioned separately: 4569 a better hold than 456X, and 910 can be over-rated, because of the proclivity of the opponent to avoid throwing a Jack.
Eolus619 says: proclivity...you kicked it up a notch..well done
horus93
1240 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Sunday 7:16 AM
Start with an 11 point hand and throw AT, or start with an 8 point hand and throw A4? Or an 8 point hand and throw 69? Eh not a hard call for me. Do appreciate the black flush over the red flush, which is rather alarming in the early morning. Haha. I think without knowing the Ras rules of thumb it would be quite tricky, but if you know them, this just doesn't look like an exception.

You could hesitate over A9 vs AT - it's pretty welll known that 4569 is better than 456X all else being equal, but it isn't a big gap, and when you throw as pone, AT is lower-scoring than A9. But as dealer they're pretty much tied.

But hey look at that, I get egg on my face. This is not a no-brainer at all - while throwing AT is technically on top at 17.2, if you throw 9T and hold A456, that's supposedly only 0.1 worse. And how could this be? 9T, while a lame toss, is just so much better than AT that it bridges the gap. I do think weighing lame tosses (as opposed to starred tosses) and comparing them with the hand is difficult, and I suck at it, which is why I didn't even consider A456.

That said, these cards are definitely strong enough for defense. 4569 looks like a slightly safer hand than A456 just for the lack of a lone ace, and the higher pip count. But A456 or 456T hardly qualify as mistakes in my book. Would take some convincing to get me to say A456 is equal on defense to 4569, let alone better - Halscrib claiming a 0.2 gap or whatever wouldn't do it. I'm not saying it isn't so, I just don't see it.

With such a great hand, I would go full Colvert, drop the 6 on a X lead.

Fifth hand with Inusthuk, 67*-60.

I deal myself 2379JQ, easy to throw 79. Worth pointing out just how lame of a crib toss 79 is, though - it's not much better than any random lo-mid toss, and it's tied 9J; it's pretty far south from 68. Its mean is such that it would be like, as pone, tossing 9K.

Inushtuk also had an easy choice, throwing me A7 to hold 5TTJ.

The cut was a six hitting none of the Jacks in question.

So it's my 23JQ as dealer vs his 5TTJ.

Pegging went: J-2(12)-5(17)-J(27)-"go"-3(30-1)//T-Q(20)-T(30-1)

So 67*-60, obviously I have prospects in the front. But a 4 point hand, and 79 in my crib, even with a six cut, is going to put me on heavy defense here. And I'd play defense even if I was further up and Inusthuk was still at 60, with these cards. We've had a number of puzzles from scores like that where I argue for defense against almost everyone else, but it's not a crazy idea at all. You have two ways to win, not one.

At 67*-60 I imagine there'd be more appetite for defense from people here; but the same thing holds even if your standing in the front is stronger than this.

Inushtuk of course is on offense - his hand won't even get him to par without pegging.

I'd lead the 5 from 5TTJ in this situation; it's one thing if I'm holding like 5TTK, but if the Xs are bunched, pretty sure a five lead will pick up more points in the long run. For example, in this case, if he led the five and I took the fifteen (which I wouldn't, but most people would), he'd end up pegging three as opposed to one - and that's considering just this case where my X response would not be pairable ('cause if I did that I'd play the Q rather than the J) etc.

Also obviously has defensive upsides because it dumps the hot potato five.

But if you do lead one of the Xs from a hand like this for whatever reason (like maybe it turns out I'm full of crap on this question, or you're not on such heavy offense) - I'd just lead from the pair rather than try to save it. You're more likely to trap a run with TJ than make something happen with TT, at least imo. One argument for leading the J would be, it's a key connector, so you're more likely to force a run - there's a similar case that MtE has made for leading the Q from TJQK. I don't see it that way though; XXXX hands aren't common enough for me to hurt what I see as my chances in the second series.

But needless to say pegging is complicated, different people say different things, and I might be wrong about everything I just said.

So seeing a Jack lead, holding 23JQ on defense, I dump my deuce. You save so many points dumping your low cards early. Of course it's hardly fail safe, and I could still get in trouble with my trey.

He responds with his 5. I recognize that as a Schell play and I do it too - if the first card you've seen from your oppo is a 3 or less, Schell thought it was worth pursuing a two-on-none. So playing 5 keeps his TT together.

Looking ahead to a two-on-one, I get rid of my run-prone Jack and then play my trey for a go.

The two-on-one is TT vs my Q, so nothing bad happens besides Inusthuk stealing last card.

In this show, Inushtuk counts his 8 point hand, plus 1 in the pegging, he's at 69*.

I count my four point hand; in the crib, my 79 meets his A7 and a 6 cut for six points, sweet. Plus 1 in the pegging, I'm at 78.

So 78-69* - I feel like things are slipping away from me a bit; no longer have much hope in the front; and Inushtuk's very much a threat dealing on the third street par. Certainly on defense unless the cards are cray cray. More tomorrow!
horus93 says: I mean not trying to be argumentative but Ras says "play away from a low card lead" - that's exactly what I'm afraid of with A456, "running away" and then getting my ace stomped in the end. It's not like it happens every deal, but it's definitely a possibility with a hand like that.
J.W.B.
301 votes

Joined: March 2014

 
 
 
Sunday 8:04 AM
Good thing we, as the dealer, didn’t shuffle very well 🤣
SallyAnn3
858 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 8:26 AM
Nice dileema to have. Touchers to the crib and keeping the ace. Everyone will agree with wasa today lol.
SallyAnn3 says: dillema*
Gougie00 says: Dilemma?
MiketheExpert
1062 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Sunday 9:55 AM
Won't break up the 4-5-6 run here to throw (A 4) or (6 9) in the crib. And the (9 10) throw was still not quite worth the sacrifice of 2 points for me. As mentioned before, (A 4 5 6) is a pegging hand I would rather have as pone than dealer. So, I was down to picking between the 2 poor crib throws of (A 9) or (A 10). Keeping the 9 in hand has a slightly better hand average, but stark defensive enthusiasts may prefer to have the 10 in the hand. Not me, with such a beautiful flush, I am no longer thinking defense (up to a certain point). Also, why not throw one card summing to 10 points rather than both (A-9), in case a 5 is thrown or cut, or especially (and more likely) if a face card is thrown... (A 10) it is!!
MiketheExpert says: I am going out of the normal defense, and in this case with such a strong hand (even after the cut), I will take the 15-2 upon an X-card lead (rather than playing the defensive 6), and I will encourage a play-on by playing the 9 over a 7 lead...Getting more points on top of this lovely 14-pt hand couldn't hurt, although my crib possibilities are sketchy.
MiketheExpert says: Even playing a 5 over a 7 lead is not a poor plan, but even I'm not going to quite swing this far...
MiketheExpert says: You may be curious...If I had just a "regular" good hold (i.e. this same holding but WITHOUT the flush, for instance)...my pegging strategy changes.(I would play the standard "defensive" response, i.e. the 6 for instance, to a 10 lead). But maybe more importantly, this may CHANGE my discard, making the lowly crib tosses of (A 9) or (A 10) somehow less appealing... And then, the stronger crib tosses of (A 4), (6 9), and even (9 10) become a consideration, and make this decision even MORE difficult!
MiketheExpert says: My other responses to opening leads with the above flush opening..(maybe a mixed bag, more offensive than basic "Colvert" defense, but still not overly aggressive.) A->5, 2->9, 3->5, 4->9, 5->9, 6->9, 7->9, 8->6, 9->6, all X-cards -> 5
MiketheExpert says: Sorry, one correction: Would drop the 4 on an 8 lead rather than the 6.
MiketheExpert says: Speaking of opening leads and responses, yesterday we had an opening-4 lead situation as pone, where I made the claim it would be "foolish" as a rule for dealer to pair it in this given situation. Probably a true statement under ordinary circumstances...But I was reminded as dealer of a keep such as (A 4 5 6) today...It is entirely possible that dealer will have no BETTER alternative than to make an unsound or unsafe pairing decision in the pegging. Thus, too often, and I even find MYSELF doing so, I will refrain from leading the pair from my hand, just on the belief that dealer will NOT possibly pair it, as it is a bad play. Sometimes I miss out on a well-needed triple for thinking this way, and trying to be "cute", while leaving the pair in my hand, missing out on these points. This also applies to leading from the pair with a set of high cards in your hand of the form XXXX. It is always useful to remember there are no ABSOLUTES when it comes to this game.
sterno
419 votes

Joined: December 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 12:02 PM
Notwithstanding an abundance of spades, this hand is a bit of a muddle. When in doubt toss the “ends”. Split herd this afternoon (I started late today). Ok cut. Checked Liam…. Interesting, the plays were a 15 for 2 or a five in my crib were significantly worse plays than tossing the ends.
cribbagepogo
3236 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 1:40 PM
Because you are with the majority doesn't mean you are correct.
horus93 says: Sounds like commie propaganda to me
Coeurdelion
5547 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 3:00 PM
I'll examine 4-5-6-9 (A-10), 4-5-6-10 (A-9), A-4-5-6 (9-10) and 5-6-9-10 (A-4):

4-5-6-9: 11pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.42) = 14½pts

4-5-6-10: 11pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.40) = 14½pts

A-4-5-6: 9pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.29) = 13¼pts

5-6-9-10: 8pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 13¼pts

Potential:

4-5-6-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 15/18/20pts with 444, 555, 666, 999 = 12 cuts. Plus 7 spade cuts for 1pt. extra for the flush = 7/46 = 0.15pt.

4-5-6-10: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 15/18/20pts with 444, 555, 666, 101010 = 12 cuts. Plus 7 spade cuts for 1pt. extra for the flush = 7/46 = 0.15pt.

A-4-5-6: Improves with AAA, 3333, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/13/16/18pts with 3333, 444, 555, 666, 999 + 15xXs = 31 cuts. Plus 7 spade cuts for 1pt. extra for the flush = 7/46 = 0.15pt.

5-6-9-10: Improves with AAA, 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 11/12/13pts with 444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 27 cuts. Plus 7 spade cuts for 1pt. extra for the flush = 7/46 = 0.15pt.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is at 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to score the average 16pts or more safely.

Pegging:

A-4-5-6 should peg best as it has 2 low card, a 5 and a middle card with a 3-card magic eleven and a 4-card magic 16.

Summary:

4-5-6-9 is better than 4-5-6-10 while A-4-5-6 is better than 5-6-9-10. 4-5-6-9 starts with 1¼ptsmore than A-4-5-6. So the question is whether the better potential and better pegging efficiency of A-4-5-6 will make up the 1¼pts? I think it will so I'll throw the 9-10.
HalscribCLX
5268 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:01 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense bstrategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
4-5-6-9____14.04+(-2.07)+3.11=15.08____52.4____61.5
A-4-5-6____13.00+(-2.11)+4.06=14.95____52.1____59.4
4-5-6-10___13.87+(-2.22)+3.13=14.78____51.7____61.6
A-4-5-10___11.22+(-1.96)+5.03=14.29____50.0____59.9
5-6-9-10___10.96+(-2.24)+5.33=14.05____48.7____58.7

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
4-5-6-9________27.5____16.0
A-4-5-6________30.0____18.0
4-5-6-10_______26.7____15.9
A-4-5-10_______27.1____17.1
5-6-9-10_______27.8____18.2

4-5-6-9 is best for expected values by 0.13pt. over A-4-5-6 and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select A-10 to discard

After the QS cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
wasa
2959 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Sunday 4:02 PM
It pays to flush (ha ha)
RubyTuesday says: I was pleased with myself for spotting the possibility of a flush today.
RGM
846 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Sunday 10:38 PM
JosephWhels
0 votes

Joined: February 2024

Monday 6:35 AM
Целью Академии является содействие членам в осуществлении деятельности в области жилищно-коммунального хозяйства, бытового обслуживания и экологии, объединение усилий в создании мультипликативного эффекта выраженного в развитии и модернизации жилищного фонда, эффективном использовании коммунальных ресурсов, создании благоприятного инвестиционного климата и совершенствования институциональной среды ЖКХ. https://www.acgkh.ru/
Чуть не забыл, советую хостинг, дешево, удобно, есть возможность покупки доменов всего по 200р, а самое важное - продление будет стоить так же 200р, а не 1000 как у того же рег.ру! Хотите перенести свой сайт на новый уровень? Знакомьтесь с NetAngels – вашим идеальным партнером в мире хостинга! Надежность, скорость и безграничные возможности ждут вас здесь. Оптимизированные серверы, безупречная поддержка и многое другое – всё это NetAngels! Переходите по ссылке https://netangels.ru/?p_ref=u114078 и начните свой невероятный онлайн-путь уже сегодня!
JosephWhels
0 votes

Joined: February 2024

Monday 7:29 AM
Целью Академии является содействие членам в осуществлении деятельности в области жилищно-коммунального хозяйства, бытового обслуживания и экологии, объединение усилий в создании мультипликативного эффекта выраженного в развитии и модернизации жилищного фонда, эффективном использовании коммунальных ресурсов, создании благоприятного инвестиционного климата и совершенствования институциональной среды ЖКХ. https://www.acgkh.ru/
Чуть не забыл, советую хостинг, дешево, удобно, есть возможность покупки доменов всего по 200р, а самое важное - продление будет стоить так же 200р, а не 1000 как у того же рег.ру! Хотите перенести свой сайт на новый уровень? Знакомьтесь с NetAngels – вашим идеальным партнером в мире хостинга! Надежность, скорость и безграничные возможности ждут вас здесь. Оптимизированные серверы, безупречная поддержка и многое другое – всё это NetAngels! Переходите по ссылке https://netangels.ru/?p_ref=u114078 и начните свой невероятный онлайн-путь уже сегодня!