Monday 3:12 AM

Obviously not a fan of the Q6 to my own crib but I’ll take the hand that usually scores double digit points -it also scores 7 pegging points on all all picture pone hand

Monday 3:44 AM

I can see holding 4 cards that total 11 as dealer. I will go this way.

Monday 4:41 AM

Without a flush, this is the way to play it. Going with my gut.

Monday 4:42 AM

The flush makes this too tempting.

Monday 5:13 AM

Could be worse as a pegger you could be pone. I know the difference. dec

Monday 5:18 AM

Not the best pegging hand

Monday 5:59 AM

That’s a pretty sweet flush, it improves on every cut. But 6Q in own crib is “useless as ***s on a warthog” as my one coworker would say. There are also pegging factors – I like A23Q more than A235 for offensive pegging because of that four-card sixteen. Not uncommon to play the A23 out for a 31-5. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to be wrong today; this is a pure discard puzzle and I’m not great at discarding. On the one hand, flushes get a sort of “boost” for me. But 6Q gets a demerit. So this is how my gut would handle it over the board.

Checking Liam think my gut is right today. The flush is south by 0.4 and pretty sure this is at least a somewhat better pegger.

Sixth hand with Inushtuk, 78-69*.

He dealt me AA779J. I did consider throwing the A9 but 9J is just not all that dangerous for me to mess up my hand that much, especially when my odds in the front are more than nothing, and AA77 is a great offensive pegger if it comes to that. Probably also a psychological factor at work – I’d been driving forward the whole game, couldn’t quite bring myself to slam on the brakes.

Inushtuk dealt himself A366TK and threw himself the TK. A bummer for sure but it’s the best you can do probably.

The cut was a 6 which did not hit the J I threw in his crib.

So it’s my AA77 vs his A366. I have a 12 point hand here that will get me to 90* next deal even with no pegging; there’s a case to just go for it, but I decided to play it safe, probably feeling some scruples about the 9J crib throw. And Inushtuk now has a 12 point hand of his own; TK sucks but you never know; makes sense to play offense.

Pegging went: A-A(2-2)-A(3-6)-6(6)-7(16)-3(19)-7(26-1)//6(1)

I led my ace for fewest losers. You can get hosed this way, and you can also get hosed leading the seven. Pretty sure the fewest-loser factor would make an Ace lead preferable on defense, but maybe not as much as one would think.

He paired me, and of course I tripled with such prospects in the front. What are the odds he’d get two double prials in one game?? Can’t even remember the last time I saw that.

He responds with his six. I’m nervous about my seven getting trapped but not too much, since I’ll have a good opening for an offensive win anyway even if he scores very well. Luckily he can’t trap it – he stays away with his trey, I get a “go” with my other seven, and he gets his “last” with his six.

In the show, I count my 12 point hand. He counts his 12 point hand; his TK met my 9J and a 6 cut to make 5 points, quite a good outcome for TK in your own crib. Think I made a typo writing down the score and I just don’t have time to work it out, may have even miscounted my hand in writing this? Oh well I'll figure that out later and you'll hear more about the game tomorrow!

Monday 6:21 AM

Like 5-6 in our crib and some spacing in our hand for some flexibility in the pegging. If we had a little better position, I might keep the flush.

Monday 6:31 AM

5-6 from me too.

Monday 6:55 AM

ah yes..the jazzman & his cribbage theorem ..the flush is the answer until it isn’t?. A-2-3-5 gets cut help from 13/13 ranks & starts with seven points ..but the crib potential seems weak to me..The other choice ..sending the 5-6 gives gets cut help to hand & crib from 12/13 ranks ..also starts with seven when hand & crib are considered. hmmm. I am favoring the 5-6 ( in the top 10 dealer discards) to my crib…ready to learn ..btw..do not like my board position …..

Monday 7:37 AM

The four card flush and the 3 card run are the way to go today, but that’s going to be an underwhelming crib. Great cut with the K♣️

Monday 8:08 AM

As Willie Wonka once said,"Candy is dandy but a flush is tricker". The four card flush comes with benefits (small straight). 6-Q to my crib will result in a weak crib.

Five - Six away. nice cut.... The flush attracted most of the herd.Liam confirms 6-Q is a weak toss but I was surpised how much stronger the flush was to my 5-6 toss.

Monday 8:35 AM

Tempted by the flush, but not liking the 6-Q to my crib. Tossing the 5-6 is a top discard, and every card is working.

Cut helps my hand and my crib so hopefully I can play a little catch-up.

Monday 9:03 AM

I know you love 5/6 in crib, so am going that way, coach LOl. Pretty flush, but ugly crib, so went this way. No Marv toss today.

Monday 9:03 AM

*hold, not toss...geez

Monday 10:15 AM

Obviously I would have preferred the A-2-3-Q flush with (5-6) to my Crib. But this will do nicely. Continue on offense to the lead. Hoping to peg 6-7 holes here.

Monday 10:37 AM

Going with Mike today, even if Rob did win this last weekend.

Monday 10:59 AM

Great puzzle Dan!
Well, as usual I am not running with the herd today. I like the 5/6 toss to my crib. Doesn't always hit but when it does....kerpowie!

Monday 11:16 AM

If choosing offense as dealer at hole 41 (2nd Street CPZ 43-47) it pays to flush though just barely. The potential hand value of this flush is so much superior to A-2-3-Q with 5-6 discard and offensive pegging also favors the flush. Those two advantages are just too much for the crib to recover. Admittedly the 6-Q is a lousy discard scoring 0-2 to own crib 44%. Will play on the lead and take any pegs offered. Nothing to defend with n/d at hole 50.

Monday 11:38 AM

Trying for a "Ka-bangy" cut. Although in my club, I would hold 1-2-3-5, to go for the straight Flush, since it pays a bonus there.

Monday 12:09 PM

It was 5 6 or 5 Q to my crib, but I liked the look of the hand after throwing 5 6 do that’s what I did.

Monday 2:34 PM

The (5 6) is compelling to throw to the crib, and 2 points may seem to be within the sacrifice limits for the (5 6) toss, as opposed to a poor (6 Q). However, the fact that this is a FLUSH which is starting 2 pts higher, and we really need to be very aggressive in terms of pegging with our position, for which the (A 2 3 5) is substantially superior leads me to pick the flush today.

Monday 3:56 PM

I think it is between A-2-3-5 (6-Q) and A-2-3-Q (5-6):

A-2-3-5: 7pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.23) = 10¼pts

A-2-3-Q: 5pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 11½pts

Potential:

A-2-3-5: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 11/12pts with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt. extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-2-3-Q: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/9/12/14pts with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 9999 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We're 3pts short of 2nd street positional hole so I'll play Offense to try to improve our position.

Pegging:

A-2-3-5 has three low cards and a 5 with a 4-card magic eleven so I think will peg best.

Summary:

A-2-3-Q is better for starting value by 1¼pts but A-2-3-5 has guaranteed improvement and 39 cuts for 11/12pts plus an extra 0.20pt. potential for a club cut. Also it should peg better so I think it will more than make up the 1¼pts therefore I'll throw the 6-Q.

Monday 3:57 PM

At 41*-50 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
A-2-3-5____11.09+3.98+2.99=18.06____12.0____33.3
A-2-3-Q_____7.85+3.46+6.71=18.02____12.8____34.0

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %
A-2-3-5________19.6____43.0
A-2-3-Q________18.2____41.2

A-2-3-5 is very slightly better for expected averages by 0.04pt. but A-2-3-Q is slightly better for Win %s and lower for Loss %s. So as the difference in expected averages is so slim and we are approaching a critical positional hole I will decide based on the Win/Loss %s and select 5-6 to discard.

After the KC cut I'll play Defense to the lead.