February 12, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by Jazzselke
41*-50  ?
Total votes: 297
1378 votes

Joined: February 2009

Monday 3:12 AM
Obviously not a fan of the Q6 to my own crib but I’ll take the hand that usually scores double digit points -it also scores 7 pegging points on all all picture pone hand
2039 votes

Joined: March 2016

Monday 3:44 AM
I can see holding 4 cards that total 11 as dealer. I will go this way.
Rosemarie44 says: the Flush did not even register for me!
5669 votes

Joined: March 2008

Monday 4:41 AM
Without a flush, this is the way to play it. Going with my gut.
wasa says: Today, I did not choose the flush, yet RAS did. Looking forward to HAL's analysis.
1335 votes

Joined: August 2018

Monday 4:42 AM
The flush makes this too tempting.
6291 votes

Joined: April 2008

Monday 5:13 AM
Could be worse as a pegger you could be pone. I know the difference. dec
708 votes

Joined: December 2021

Monday 5:18 AM
Not the best pegging hand
Ras2829 says: Hi RedTailRogue: Actually, this is a pretty strong pegging hand for dealer on average with nearly 4 pegs. Admittedly the A-2-3-5 pegs very poorly for n/d.
1240 votes

Joined: December 2017

Monday 5:59 AM
That’s a pretty sweet flush, it improves on every cut. But 6Q in own crib is “useless as ***s on a warthog” as my one coworker would say. There are also pegging factors – I like A23Q more than A235 for offensive pegging because of that four-card sixteen. Not uncommon to play the A23 out for a 31-5. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to be wrong today; this is a pure discard puzzle and I’m not great at discarding. On the one hand, flushes get a sort of “boost” for me. But 6Q gets a demerit. So this is how my gut would handle it over the board.

Checking Liam think my gut is right today. The flush is south by 0.4 and pretty sure this is at least a somewhat better pegger.

Sixth hand with Inushtuk, 78-69*.

He dealt me AA779J. I did consider throwing the A9 but 9J is just not all that dangerous for me to mess up my hand that much, especially when my odds in the front are more than nothing, and AA77 is a great offensive pegger if it comes to that. Probably also a psychological factor at work – I’d been driving forward the whole game, couldn’t quite bring myself to slam on the brakes.

Inushtuk dealt himself A366TK and threw himself the TK. A bummer for sure but it’s the best you can do probably.

The cut was a 6 which did not hit the J I threw in his crib.

So it’s my AA77 vs his A366. I have a 12 point hand here that will get me to 90* next deal even with no pegging; there’s a case to just go for it, but I decided to play it safe, probably feeling some scruples about the 9J crib throw. And Inushtuk now has a 12 point hand of his own; TK sucks but you never know; makes sense to play offense.

Pegging went: A-A(2-2)-A(3-6)-6(6)-7(16)-3(19)-7(26-1)//6(1)

I led my ace for fewest losers. You can get hosed this way, and you can also get hosed leading the seven. Pretty sure the fewest-loser factor would make an Ace lead preferable on defense, but maybe not as much as one would think.

He paired me, and of course I tripled with such prospects in the front. What are the odds he’d get two double prials in one game?? Can’t even remember the last time I saw that.

He responds with his six. I’m nervous about my seven getting trapped but not too much, since I’ll have a good opening for an offensive win anyway even if he scores very well. Luckily he can’t trap it – he stays away with his trey, I get a “go” with my other seven, and he gets his “last” with his six.

In the show, I count my 12 point hand. He counts his 12 point hand; his TK met my 9J and a 6 cut to make 5 points, quite a good outcome for TK in your own crib. Think I made a typo writing down the score and I just don’t have time to work it out, may have even miscounted my hand in writing this? Oh well I'll figure that out later and you'll hear more about the game tomorrow!
horus93 says: Distributions are highly divergent here. The flush is certainly more reliable and beats my way for targets of min 13 and lower; but this keep pulls ahead for big scores in a big way; odds of hitting mean 18 are 18% vs 9% for the flush. Given the score makes sense to aim high, but likely at some scores the flush could be preferable. Then again it's not like a huge gap at the lower end.
horus93 says: Maybe the five in hand plus the 11 would make the flush even or better pegging than the a23x; hard to see it being over 0.4 better; could see it being a tossup in the end.
horus93 says: Still, will gladly bet you 50 bucks that your opponent is not holding xxxx.
1372 votes

Joined: February 2009

Monday 6:21 AM
Like 5-6 in our crib and some spacing in our hand for some flexibility in the pegging. If we had a little better position, I might keep the flush.
guideontheside says: My thinking, exactly!
3863 votes

Joined: June 2013

Monday 6:31 AM
5-6 from me too.
1281 votes

Joined: June 2020

Monday 6:55 AM
ah yes..the jazzman & his cribbage theorem ..the flush is the answer until it isn’t?. A-2-3-5 gets cut help from 13/13 ranks & starts with seven points ..but the crib potential seems weak to me..The other choice ..sending the 5-6 gives gets cut help to hand & crib from 12/13 ranks ..also starts with seven when hand & crib are considered. hmmm. I am favoring the 5-6 ( in the top 10 dealer discards) to my crib…ready to learn ..btw..do not like my board position …..
301 votes

Joined: March 2014

Monday 7:37 AM
The four card flush and the 3 card run are the way to go today, but that’s going to be an underwhelming crib. Great cut with the K♣️
419 votes

Joined: December 2020

Monday 8:08 AM
As Willie Wonka once said,"Candy is dandy but a flush is tricker". The four card flush comes with benefits (small straight). 6-Q to my crib will result in a weak crib.

Five - Six away. nice cut.... The flush attracted most of the herd.Liam confirms 6-Q is a weak toss but I was surpised how much stronger the flush was to my 5-6 toss.
Gougie00 says: Candy is dandy and liquor is quicker. You can get all the liquor down in Costa Rica - Taj Mahal
bbaer1 says: Yes, and you can also get murdered pretty fast.
bbaer1 says: Thinking of Steve de Grandmaison from NH and my high school, a great athlete who went on to play Division One football at Purdue. Moved to Costa Rica and was a fishing guide there. Was shot and killed by his landlord over a rent dispute.
2959 votes

Joined: November 2014

Monday 8:35 AM
Tempted by the flush, but not liking the 6-Q to my crib. Tossing the 5-6 is a top discard, and every card is working.

Cut helps my hand and my crib so hopefully I can play a little catch-up.
858 votes

Joined: March 2020

Monday 9:03 AM
I know you love 5/6 in crib, so am going that way, coach LOl. Pretty flush, but ugly crib, so went this way. No Marv toss today.
Jazzselke says: Well then I better throw 56!
SallyAnn3 says: What did you do?
Jazzselke says: 56
858 votes

Joined: March 2020

Monday 9:03 AM
*hold, not toss...geez
1428 votes

Joined: July 2016

Monday 10:15 AM
Obviously I would have preferred the A-2-3-Q flush with (5-6) to my Crib. But this will do nicely. Continue on offense to the lead. Hoping to peg 6-7 holes here.
Eolus619 says: Mike..a recent bumpy counting journey 2-3-5-5...7 = 4-5-6-9...9 =
3236 votes

Joined: October 2007

Monday 10:37 AM
Going with Mike today, even if Rob did win this last weekend.
Sgt Pegger
220 votes

Joined: July 2017

Monday 10:59 AM
Great puzzle Dan!
Well, as usual I am not running with the herd today. I like the 5/6 toss to my crib. Doesn't always hit but when it does....kerpowie!
Sgt Pegger says: "not running with the herd" by popular percentages. It appears a number of us that write comments are trending this way, however.
5095 votes

Joined: November 2008

Monday 11:16 AM
If choosing offense as dealer at hole 41 (2nd Street CPZ 43-47) it pays to flush though just barely. The potential hand value of this flush is so much superior to A-2-3-Q with 5-6 discard and offensive pegging also favors the flush. Those two advantages are just too much for the crib to recover. Admittedly the 6-Q is a lousy discard scoring 0-2 to own crib 44%. Will play on the lead and take any pegs offered. Nothing to defend with n/d at hole 50.
Ras2829 says: The flush has the edge in combined value (pegs, hand and crib scores. Win/loss % might favor A-2-3-Q with 5-6 discard. It's a close call and will defer to Halscrib on win/loss %.
Ras2829 says: Mrob2199 mentions pegging 7 holes for dealer with A-2-3-5. This happens more often than many realize. If n/d has all X-pointers or even a five with X-pointers, n/d leads a X-pointer, dealer score 15-2 with the play of the five. n/d will advance the count to 25, dealer makes the count 27 with the 2 or 28 with the trey, n/d says go, and dealer scores 31-5 (run of three and 2 for 31). This happens every time n/d has XXXX. It also happens quite often if n/d has a five with X-X-X. When dealer takes the 15-2, n/d will often pause as could pair the five for count of 20 though has to say go if count reaches 22 or or. Since n/d does not have a playable card if pairing the five, will often advance the count to 25 and have already indicated how that will play out. That's 7 unanswerable pegs and they are often avaiable.
293 votes

Joined: July 2020

Monday 11:38 AM
Trying for a "Ka-bangy" cut. Although in my club, I would hold 1-2-3-5, to go for the straight Flush, since it pays a bonus there.
SallyAnn3 says: I would have in club as well..to win win top poker pot of $50!
875 votes

Joined: January 2019

Monday 12:09 PM
It was 5 6 or 5 Q to my crib, but I liked the look of the hand after throwing 5 6 do that’s what I did.
RubyTuesday says: So not do!
1062 votes

Joined: April 2021

Monday 2:34 PM
The (5 6) is compelling to throw to the crib, and 2 points may seem to be within the sacrifice limits for the (5 6) toss, as opposed to a poor (6 Q). However, the fact that this is a FLUSH which is starting 2 pts higher, and we really need to be very aggressive in terms of pegging with our position, for which the (A 2 3 5) is substantially superior leads me to pick the flush today.
MiketheExpert says: As much as I like to "rag" on pegging value in certain situations, this doesn't negate the fact that it is still a very important part of the game, and when 2 discards seem to quite close in overall hand+crib total, a large pegging difference will OFTEN serve as a tie-breaker in my choice of selection.
5547 votes

Joined: October 2007

Monday 3:56 PM
I think it is between A-2-3-5 (6-Q) and A-2-3-Q (5-6):

A-2-3-5: 7pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.23) = 10¼pts

A-2-3-Q: 5pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 11½pts


A-2-3-5: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 11/12pts with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 39 cuts. Plus 9 clubs for 1pt. extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-2-3-Q: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 555, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/9/12/14pts with AAA, 222, 333, 4444, 9999 = 17 cuts.


We're 3pts short of 2nd street positional hole so I'll play Offense to try to improve our position.


A-2-3-5 has three low cards and a 5 with a 4-card magic eleven so I think will peg best.


A-2-3-Q is better for starting value by 1¼pts but A-2-3-5 has guaranteed improvement and 39 cuts for 11/12pts plus an extra 0.20pt. potential for a club cut. Also it should peg better so I think it will more than make up the 1¼pts therefore I'll throw the 6-Q.
5268 votes

Joined: February 2008

Monday 3:57 PM
At 41*-50 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %

Offense_______L5 %____L6 %

A-2-3-5 is very slightly better for expected averages by 0.04pt. but A-2-3-Q is slightly better for Win %s and lower for Loss %s. So as the difference in expected averages is so slim and we are approaching a critical positional hole I will decide based on the Win/Loss %s and select 5-6 to discard.

After the KC cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
MiketheExpert says: Not in a defensive frame of mind at all here, even after this cut. It is largely weaker than the "flush" in hand though after the K cut (7 points as opposed to 12). What could be the meaning behind this downshift in strategy...Perhaps the thinking is that our prospects are too "weak" in order to play the dangers of the pegging game, thinking that hole 60 is too far from sight - and we can end up pushing pone "undesirable" close to next CPZ with his 9-pt margin of lead on the board.