March 30, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by JQT
107*-111  ?
64%
26%
5%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 247
james500
3915 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Saturday 3:10 AM
Pone will be less able to pair anything I lay down, since there are fewer in circulation and so less chance they were dealt one. Hopefully they'll have scored
james500 says: ... less than 10 by the conclusion of the hand. (The symbol for, "less than", seems to have cut my initial post short.
MiketheExpert
1114 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Saturday 3:32 AM
Our first order of business is to do our best to prevent pone from counting out. If he has a good hand, there is nothing we can do about it. We don't have a strong enough hand that it is automatic we'll make it out from hole 107. (A 6) isn't a good throw, but the 9 cut makes it probable we won't need to peg very much. Defense on any opening lead, but will pair a 3 since 14 pegging points is enough to make it out.
MiketheExpert says: I think pairing a K lead is worth the risk, as we may need the points, and there seems to be only 1 card that can immediately beat us.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 3:37 AM
Yesterday, we were the Dealer trailing Pone by One Hole, as we had just stumbled our way onto Fourth Street, and we saw that stowing away a PAIR of Small Cards in our Crib was NOT the way to proceed; this idea, which severely limited our Hand Maximum, was not even considered among the Top Four Choices by the program.

Today, we are the Dealer once again, now holding both a Small Card PAIR as well as a High Card PAIR, and once again trailing Pone, but this time we trail by Four Points, and here we are much farther along on Fourth Street and in fact we are in an Endgame Battle. Our choices appear to be very limited: are we adiabatically cooked and thoroughly bumfuzzled, or can we see our way through this sticky morass?

With Pone sitting just Ten Points (or an Average Tally) away from defeating us, our main concern must be limiting Pone's Pegging, but how do we do this with such a nondescript arrangement? We use MAGIC! (Just Kidding, Folks.) If we jettison the Small Card PAIR, we would be leaving ourselves with a Lone Small(er) Card, the veritable, vulnerable Ace. We probably don't want to do that.

However, if we 'dump' (technical term) the High Card PAIR of Kings into our Crib, now we might get 'jammed up' during the pegging into allowing a dangerous RUN. What to do?! How can we best attempt to thwart our Opponent today?

If we follow the logic this far, Keep (3 3 K K) and Toss (A 6) should suggest itself as james500 (above) has already discovered, and it should 'jump out' as at least an interesting idea. The concept of "Safety in Numbers" might mean a safe path during the pegging can be achieved by simply holding onto the Two PAIRS. 🍐 🍐 Who knew such fructification was even possible?

Toss (A 6) might also be the best way to optimize the scoring potential of our Crib, and by placing an 'odd' Small Card Ace alongside an 'even' 6 or 8 Middle Card is often a good way to energize our Crib.

Let's Toss (A 6) today, and try to negotiate our way through the pegging minefield unscathed.

After the 9 Card Cut, we now have Six Points in our Hand, with prospects for a decent Crib. But this puzzle is really all about the PEGGING.

If Pone leads anything but a Trey, or a 9 Card, or a Jack, or a Queen, we'll respond with a Trey; and if Pone leads anything else, we'll respond with a King: yes, we'll risk PAIRING a King Lead, because the Two Points come with very low risk when we hold the "case" King!

We must defend our way through the pegging phase, but with just two card ranks present within our Hand, a large amount of thought won't likely be required during the pegging!

Of course, this game probably still isn't immediately over if Pone fails to 'cover' the distance, since it's likely that our Hand and Crib total might leave us 'shy' of winning. And if we go onto yet another deal, our Opponent shall become the Next Dealer, and will have the Pegging Advantage, which includes a possible Jack Cut.

For these reasons, it will certainly help us if we can peg a few holes during the current deal, but our primary focus MUST be to defend, so only take risky pegs if Pone shows a very weak Hand. Remember, the 9 Card Cut gives us AT LEAST Two Points in our Crib, since we stuffed a 6 Card in there!

Friday's Wordle Anti-Hint was: "branch neighborhood proximity range" and my guesses were: SNARE, GRIMY, REALM. I thought of REALM after my initial guess, since I thought the word likely began with RE and I knew that A was the middle letter vowel.

I reasoned that knowing if the letter I or Y was present would likely lead me toward the solution, but I probably could have tried REALM as my second guess, because the only logical solution that does NOT begin with RE is probably the unlikely DEAIR or BLAER, or something equally bizarre, and while Wordle sometimes invokes rare words, it also tends to have simple, straightforward solutions. Other words starting with RE are: REACH, REACT, or READY, and in hindsight, guessing REACH or REACT both appear to mathematically best optimally refine our search.

Wordle 1,015 4/6 (Do we really have Space for this?)

⬛⬛🟨⬛🟩
🟨🟩⬛⬛⬛
⬛🟩⬛🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
JQT says: Errata: About paragraph nine or thereabouts, when it says: "If Pone leads ANYTHING BUT a Trey, or a 9 Card, or a Jack, or a Queen..." it should read: "If Pone leads a Trey, or a 9 Card, or a Jack, or a Queen..." (delete "ANYTHING BUT" from this clause).
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Wonderful analysis, insights, and thanks for sharing. Choosing defense, has to be very close between discarding A-6 and 3-3. Got to do some more number crunching and will post later. Fine work on full display.
JQT says: Thank you, Sir; I continue to learn from players like you, and others who have also given so much to 'This Game of Ours' and it's a privilege to have your frequent company as well as commentary here on this site. 🦅 🌎 ⚓
Gougie00
5722 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 4:14 AM
Got to play it like the pone doesnt have enough. Play off and I just might steal this game.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Saturday 4:30 AM
I’m probably supposed to think somewhat about defensive pegging, but I don’t think we really have that luxury with a hand like this. What’s the sense in holding pone back if we end up at a score like 117-119*? Who do you think will win then? And even there – would much rather be at a score like 119-119* than 117-119*, gnomesayin’? I think this is more important than the difference in pegs given up which will be fairly small.

When I started playing this would be kinda tricky, because I’d be thinking “hmm if I keep that A33 together I could cut a deuce… is it worth it?”. This is human cognitive bias and nothing more. 33KK will do better overall; A6, while a poor toss, is among the best lo-mids. Yeah that’s like “tallest midget”, but still. One of the fun things about cribbage is that the math can be so surprising and go against what you would "reckon" without doing any math.

Checking Liam, I must confess to a certain degree of egg adhering to my face, because tossing 33 to hold A6KK is basically tied with this way (-0.1 per Liam). But in the grand scheme of things, don’t think there’s a huge difference between A6KK and 33KK as defensive peggers. I can see A6KK getting in trouble with its lone ace (pone leads a low and “smokes” it out, chasing it down the count); I can see it getting in trouble with its two-card sixteen; I can see 33KK getting in trouble with its three-card sixteen, but perhaps less so (it at least *seems* to me that two-card sixteens are more of a liability than three-card ones). And treys are harder to trap than aces. I see A6KK has an eleven to perhaps shut out the count. A6KK also has a nice response to most low-card leads in the six. Then again, a savvy pone at a spot like this is often fishing for a mid-card response to his low-card lead. Overall, doesn’t look like a big difference, in fact probably a small enough gap that whichever of these is Really Best for hand-plus-crib, in the big chart in the sky, is narrowly on top overall, but I couldn’t tell you which of them it is, even if Liam likes my way.

There are also offensive considerations… would be nice to peg a couple, even if thinking primarily defense, with cards this poor. Here, again, looks close to me.

I am confident that tossing something more subpar, like KK, is not going to be worth it, even if the hand is better defense (and is it? Well, I don’t have to worry about that because already decided it doesn’t matter lol).

What about distributions? My way is in theory on top for hitting min 10 (49% vs 48%); and for hitting min 11 (32% vs 30%); toss KK is supposedly better for hitting min 12 by 0.6%; it’s tied with 33 for hitting min 13 (or technically Liam thinks 33 has a 0.1% edge) What’s the margin of error for Liam’s distributions? I imagine these are all within it.

“Well then it looks like KK isn’t so bad after all” – I disagree; tosses A6 and 33 do significantly better at the lower end of the curve. Would you rather be at 112-118* next hand, or 114-118*?

So my overall verdict – too close to call between toss A6 and toss 33. A lot of people will be talking about the AK eleven – it *is* a defensive asset, but there’s more going on than that. You can pick any number of pegging factors to say that one is better than the other – the truth is, they both have assets and liabilities. In general, 33XX hands also seem to do well on defense. The trey can often safely break up low-card mischief at the end of the first series, which the ace can’t really do, etc.

Sweet cut, hits hand and crib, can play maximal defense. MtE raises the issue of a K lead – I’d pair it for sure, think that’s the best defensive play and obv a couple of points for us are nice.

Well I really argued this post, thinking many people would be going another way, but so far am in the herd of commenters. Hope some people pick 33 because I think it’s also a good play :)
horus93 says: Ace lead – I’d play trey. Most hands with A2?? Pone wouldn’t be leading an ace… unless maybe he has enough to go out and is thinking about the spread, and in that case it doesn’t matter what I play. This sort of thinking might seem sort of suspect, but it's served me well. Deuce lead – play the king, surely. Odds are low that he has a trey, making the count “five” is rarely a good idea. Trey lead – pair it. Four lead – I’ll plug my nose and play the K. Two points with the fifteen won’t necessarily lose the game, and I have at least seen one of the aces. Five lead – play the trey… not many people will lead a five from 45??. However against a good player, like Inushtuk or my brother – good players really would quite possibly lead a 5 from 45XX; against them, I’d play my King. Six, seven, eight, nine leads, all of these play a King. I’m more afraid of a fifteening to my trey on those leads than I am of my treys getting in trouble later, though that is surely possible, just because of the nature of the sorts of hands that elicit those leads; I do think playing the trey to a 9 is an interesting idea but I can’t quite stomach it. As for pairing a trey lead – if he leads a trey his tripling it is a sort of special case since we might well peg out in that case. Anyway I’d be way more afraid that he has a deuce and will fifteen a K reply. I ofc wouldn’t play a King to a J or Q lead, you’re just going to give up a run often enough. And like I said would pair a K lead.
horus93 says: Rob is of course right about this hand giving up a 31 to 5x; but against 69, 78, we peg 4 and likely only give up last; 3- and 4-card fifteens will peg on the 6x sixteen, sometimes in a big way; etc
horus93 says: And re: jqt's little dig at throwing 22 yesterday - look up the numbers on liam yourself if you don't believe me. It was tied, and better for higher scores. He, and others, really did underestimate it.
horus93 says: And today we both underestimated 33
horus93 says: Many cases where the bot doesn't consider a good play, like the other day with 5666
horus93 says: Pretty classic behavior for him though; he can't really understand a point of view different from his own, and is a total phony.
horus93 says: Too stupid and/or lazy to consider what someone else is saying, too narcissistic and lacking in empathy to so much as follow an argument. No, for him it's "gotta be right... gotta be right.... oo look the bot didn't consider it it must be way off!" Of course he couldn't consider the points I actually made because, again, stupid/lazy and insufferably arrogant. A btw - jqt likes to lecture people about "improving their win rate", yet refuses to play online because he thinks the rngs are rigged against him... make of that what you will.
dec
6350 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 5:03 AM
The six doesn't equate in this hand. Lets keep four this way and if opponent has a minimal hand we could still find a way to have a win here. dec
mrob2199
1427 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Saturday 5:11 AM
Rough hand for this position-this hold provides us the best defensive pegging flexibility while also maintaining crib potential with the 33 discard-don’t like the configuration of the 33Kk for pegging-if dealer leads a J or Q we are forced to play our 3 which could eventually lead to a 31 for pone which would bring an 8 point hand home-
mrob2199 says: Oops meant pone leading the J or Q not dealer
J.W.B.
348 votes

Joined: March 2014

 
 
 
Saturday 6:48 AM
This game likely won’t be won or lost on this hand. The 8 points we’ve accumulated in our hand and crib takes us to 115. Hopefully, a couple of pegs along the way pushes us to 117, or more, and high enough to peg a couple in the next hand where we also count first and can win the game!
dph says: I made the same discard choice; let's hope pone does his part by throwing a 3rd King into our crib.
SallyAnn3
902 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Saturday 8:56 AM
A-2-3-6-8-9 help on the cut, and maybe the pone will toss the junky K to me.
SallyAnn3 says: and the 5...I always forget that combo.
bbaer1
3684 votes

Joined: February 2011

 
 
 
Saturday 9:36 AM
Here we go again
bbaer1 says: Was replying to horus vs. JQT
horus93 says: Eh he started it, same as last time.
bbaer1 says: horus stop. Just. Stop.
horus93 says: Like, there are plenty of people here I like, that I disagree with quite regularly, almost every day even, but it's not the disagreement, it's that he's so close-minded and in love with the smell of his own farts. I've been "interacting" with him for years and never once has he given me a fair hearing on any subject. Like I said above, an absolute phony, and a flimflam man.
Ras2829 says: Hi horus93: You are giving the whole world a lesson on being phony! I disagree with many folks on this site and clash with a few. You'll never know who they are. If my differences are profound, I will find a way to address them with personal/ private contact. Differences of opinion on this site should be expected and respected.
bbaer1
3684 votes

Joined: February 2011

 
 
 
Saturday 9:39 AM
Here we go again
bbaer1 says: I replied to a comment and it ended up being an individual post. I guess you have to have a post yourself before you can reply to a comment?
fentesk
1195 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Saturday 10:27 AM
I felt better about the 3s in the crib today as I expect pone will keep low cards if in need of going out, and this hand will hold up well if pone needed to keep X-X-X-X or X-X-X-5.
RubyTuesday
907 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Saturday 1:41 PM
I threw K K to my crib, as I read down the responses I thought “oh dear” but was then pleased to see that some other commenters did the same.
Coeurdelion
5589 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Saturday 1:50 PM
I think we must play Defense as Pone only needs 10pts to go out which is the average. We could keep 3-3-K-K to peg Defensively or A-6-K-K but I think I'll go with A-3-3-6 and throw the K-K to my box.
HalscribCLX
5312 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 1:50 PM
At 107*-111 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

Defense_______W1 %_____W2 %_____L1 %_____L2 %
3-3-K-K_______23.0_____44.1_____39.0_____47.3
A-6-K-K_______24.7_____38.6_____45.2_____52.9
A-3-3-6_______23.6_____30.3_____54.8_____62.2

3-3-K-K is best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select A-6 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
JQT says: The WIN percentages after two deals (this deal, and possibly the next) as shown by the program reveal what I had tried to deduce as I described earlier: (A 3 3 6) is risky with Pone sitting just Ten Points out: for example, we are likely in immediate trouble if Pone leads a 4 Card! (A 6 K K) is perhaps better, but then we miss an opportunity to hold the Small Card PAIR, with its inherent safety. Cribbage is primarily a probabilistic endeavor, especially when we are in an Endgame Battle. Remember, when we are dealt a PAIR, then the odds that Pone was ever dealt any of that specific card rank have been reduced by HALF! If we play our first Trey and it isn't scored upon, now there is a reasonable chance that we can play the second Trey and also prevent Pone from being able to score easily. I call this Pegging Phenomena: "Safety in Numbers" and it works with our King PAIR as well. The fact that we can PAIR either a Trey or a King Lead today if we retain (3 3 K K), and do so with relative safety, is what makes this hand such a good solution to the problem, which is our Relative Score. The potential of our Hand and Crib is not too critical, as usually Pone will either have enough anyway (after which we lose, regardless); or we'll come up short, and if this occurs, we don't mind so much incurring another deal, especially if the score is say (115-116*). As Pone during Next Deal, we should be favored in such a game, unless our Opponent gets a Jack Cut, or starts from a better score, such as Hole 117 or higher. The fact that we can obtain over a 40% Win Rate after Toss (A 6) today is an illustration of the Defensive Resourcefulness of holding Two PAIRS at such a Relative Score!
Ras2829
5145 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Saturday 2:10 PM
With n/d needing 10 points to win, play SAFE. Play off the lead although would pair a King rather than split the treys and offer n/d chance to score 15-2. Sets of well separated pairs often minimize pegging of opponent. That's sorely needed here. For those who live in the White House or Fairfax County Virginia have a Happy Transgender Day of Visibility. For those who identify as Christian, Happy Easter! For those identifying with neither may the rest of this weekend be a glorious experience.
bbaer1 says: Here’s to positivity!
JQT says: Slightly over a century ago, in 1911, Lemuel K. Washburn wrote: "To correct in ourselves what we condemn in others would remove most of the evils of life." He also wrote: "Honesty is never seen sitting astride the fence." (I wonder if we could somehow apply this to Cribbage?) I noticed that these days, "Lemuel" is approximately the 2283rd most popular name for boys. If someone asks me what my pronouns are, from now on that's it: I think I'm going to say, "Lemuel"!
bbaer1 says: I saw a good one a couple days ago where she said her pronouns were she/he/it. So she was the sheit!
HaydenSr says: Thanks for the chuckle Ras and Baer.