Saturday 3:10 AM

Pone will be less able to pair anything I lay down, since there are fewer in circulation and so less chance they were dealt one. Hopefully they'll have scored

   

Saturday 3:32 AM

Our first order of business is to do our best to prevent pone from counting out. If he has a good hand, there is nothing we can do about it. We don't have a strong enough hand that it is automatic we'll make it out from hole 107. (A 6) isn't a good throw, but the 9 cut makes it probable we won't need to peg very much. Defense on any opening lead, but will pair a 3 since 14 pegging points is enough to make it out.

   

Saturday 3:37 AM

Yesterday, we were the Dealer trailing Pone by One Hole, as we had just stumbled our way onto Fourth Street, and we saw that stowing away a PAIR of Small Cards in our Crib was NOT the way to proceed; this idea, which severely limited our Hand Maximum, was not even considered among the Top Four Choices by the program.

Today, we are the Dealer once again, now holding both a Small Card PAIR as well as a High Card PAIR, and once again trailing Pone, but this time we trail by Four Points, and here we are much farther along on Fourth Street and in fact we are in an Endgame Battle. Our choices appear to be very limited: are we adiabatically cooked and thoroughly bumfuzzled, or can we see our way through this sticky morass?

With Pone sitting just Ten Points (or an Average Tally) away from defeating us, our main concern must be limiting Pone's Pegging, but how do we do this with such a nondescript arrangement? We use MAGIC! (Just Kidding, Folks.) If we jettison the Small Card PAIR, we would be leaving ourselves with a Lone Small(er) Card, the veritable, vulnerable Ace. We probably don't want to do that.

However, if we 'dump' (technical term) the High Card PAIR of Kings into our Crib, now we might get 'jammed up' during the pegging into allowing a dangerous RUN. What to do?! How can we best attempt to thwart our Opponent today?

If we follow the logic this far, Keep (3 3 K K) and Toss (A 6) should suggest itself as james500 (above) has already discovered, and it should 'jump out' as at least an interesting idea. The concept of "Safety in Numbers" might mean a safe path during the pegging can be achieved by simply holding onto the Two PAIRS. 🍐 🍐 Who knew such fructification was even possible?

Toss (A 6) might also be the best way to optimize the scoring potential of our Crib, and by placing an 'odd' Small Card Ace alongside an 'even' 6 or 8 Middle Card is often a good way to energize our Crib.

Let's Toss (A 6) today, and try to negotiate our way through the pegging minefield unscathed.

After the 9 Card Cut, we now have Six Points in our Hand, with prospects for a decent Crib. But this puzzle is really all about the PEGGING.

If Pone leads anything but a Trey, or a 9 Card, or a Jack, or a Queen, we'll respond with a Trey; and if Pone leads anything else, we'll respond with a King: yes, we'll risk PAIRING a King Lead, because the Two Points come with very low risk when we hold the "case" King!

We must defend our way through the pegging phase, but with just two card ranks present within our Hand, a large amount of thought won't likely be required during the pegging!

Of course, this game probably still isn't immediately over if Pone fails to 'cover' the distance, since it's likely that our Hand and Crib total might leave us 'shy' of winning. And if we go onto yet another deal, our Opponent shall become the Next Dealer, and will have the Pegging Advantage, which includes a possible Jack Cut.

For these reasons, it will certainly help us if we can peg a few holes during the current deal, but our primary focus MUST be to defend, so only take risky pegs if Pone shows a very weak Hand. Remember, the 9 Card Cut gives us AT LEAST Two Points in our Crib, since we stuffed a 6 Card in there!

Friday's Wordle Anti-Hint was: "branch neighborhood proximity range" and my guesses were: SNARE, GRIMY, REALM. I thought of REALM after my initial guess, since I thought the word likely began with RE and I knew that A was the middle letter vowel.

I reasoned that knowing if the letter I or Y was present would likely lead me toward the solution, but I probably could have tried REALM as my second guess, because the only logical solution that does NOT begin with RE is probably the unlikely DEAIR or BLAER, or something equally bizarre, and while Wordle sometimes invokes rare words, it also tends to have simple, straightforward solutions. Other words starting with RE are: REACH, REACT, or READY, and in hindsight, guessing REACH or REACT both appear to mathematically best optimally refine our search.

Wordle 1,015 4/6 (Do we really have Space for this?)

⬛⬛🟨⬛🟩
🟨🟩⬛⬛⬛
⬛🟩⬛🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

   

Saturday 4:14 AM

Got to play it like the pone doesnt have enough. Play off and I just might steal this game.

   

Saturday 4:30 AM

I’m probably supposed to think somewhat about defensive pegging, but I don’t think we really have that luxury with a hand like this. What’s the sense in holding pone back if we end up at a score like 117-119*? Who do you think will win then? And even there – would much rather be at a score like 119-119* than 117-119*, gnomesayin’? I think this is more important than the difference in pegs given up which will be fairly small.

When I started playing this would be kinda tricky, because I’d be thinking “hmm if I keep that A33 together I could cut a deuce… is it worth it?”. This is human cognitive bias and nothing more. 33KK will do better overall; A6, while a poor toss, is among the best lo-mids. Yeah that’s like “tallest midget”, but still. One of the fun things about cribbage is that the math can be so surprising and go against what you would "reckon" without doing any math.

Checking Liam, I must confess to a certain degree of egg adhering to my face, because tossing 33 to hold A6KK is basically tied with this way (-0.1 per Liam). But in the grand scheme of things, don’t think there’s a huge difference between A6KK and 33KK as defensive peggers. I can see A6KK getting in trouble with its lone ace (pone leads a low and “smokes” it out, chasing it down the count); I can see it getting in trouble with its two-card sixteen; I can see 33KK getting in trouble with its three-card sixteen, but perhaps less so (it at least *seems* to me that two-card sixteens are more of a liability than three-card ones). And treys are harder to trap than aces. I see A6KK has an eleven to perhaps shut out the count. A6KK also has a nice response to most low-card leads in the six. Then again, a savvy pone at a spot like this is often fishing for a mid-card response to his low-card lead. Overall, doesn’t look like a big difference, in fact probably a small enough gap that whichever of these is Really Best for hand-plus-crib, in the big chart in the sky, is narrowly on top overall, but I couldn’t tell you which of them it is, even if Liam likes my way.

There are also offensive considerations… would be nice to peg a couple, even if thinking primarily defense, with cards this poor. Here, again, looks close to me.

I am confident that tossing something more subpar, like KK, is not going to be worth it, even if the hand is better defense (and is it? Well, I don’t have to worry about that because already decided it doesn’t matter lol).

What about distributions? My way is in theory on top for hitting min 10 (49% vs 48%); and for hitting min 11 (32% vs 30%); toss KK is supposedly better for hitting min 12 by 0.6%; it’s tied with 33 for hitting min 13 (or technically Liam thinks 33 has a 0.1% edge) What’s the margin of error for Liam’s distributions? I imagine these are all within it.

“Well then it looks like KK isn’t so bad after all” – I disagree; tosses A6 and 33 do significantly better at the lower end of the curve. Would you rather be at 112-118* next hand, or 114-118*?

So my overall verdict – too close to call between toss A6 and toss 33. A lot of people will be talking about the AK eleven – it *is* a defensive asset, but there’s more going on than that. You can pick any number of pegging factors to say that one is better than the other – the truth is, they both have assets and liabilities. In general, 33XX hands also seem to do well on defense. The trey can often safely break up low-card mischief at the end of the first series, which the ace can’t really do, etc.

Sweet cut, hits hand and crib, can play maximal defense. MtE raises the issue of a K lead – I’d pair it for sure, think that’s the best defensive play and obv a couple of points for us are nice.

Well I really argued this post, thinking many people would be going another way, but so far am in the herd of commenters. Hope some people pick 33 because I think it’s also a good play :)

   

Saturday 5:03 AM

The six doesn't equate in this hand. Lets keep four this way and if opponent has a minimal hand we could still find a way to have a win here. dec

   

Saturday 5:11 AM

Rough hand for this position-this hold provides us the best defensive pegging flexibility while also maintaining crib potential with the 33 discard-don’t like the configuration of the 33Kk for pegging-if dealer leads a J or Q we are forced to play our 3 which could eventually lead to a 31 for pone which would bring an 8 point hand home-

   

Saturday 6:48 AM

This game likely won’t be won or lost on this hand. The 8 points we’ve accumulated in our hand and crib takes us to 115. Hopefully, a couple of pegs along the way pushes us to 117, or more, and high enough to peg a couple in the next hand where we also count first and can win the game!

   

Saturday 8:56 AM

A-2-3-6-8-9 help on the cut, and maybe the pone will toss the junky K to me.

   

Saturday 9:36 AM

Here we go again

   

Saturday 9:39 AM

Here we go again

   

Saturday 10:27 AM

I felt better about the 3s in the crib today as I expect pone will keep low cards if in need of going out, and this hand will hold up well if pone needed to keep X-X-X-X or X-X-X-5.

   

Saturday 1:41 PM

I threw K K to my crib, as I read down the responses I thought “oh dear” but was then pleased to see that some other commenters did the same.

   

Saturday 1:50 PM

I think we must play Defense as Pone only needs 10pts to go out which is the average. We could keep 3-3-K-K to peg Defensively or A-6-K-K but I think I'll go with A-3-3-6 and throw the K-K to my box.

   

Saturday 1:50 PM

At 107*-111 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

Defense_______W1 %_____W2 %_____L1 %_____L2 %
3-3-K-K_______23.0_____44.1_____39.0_____47.3
A-6-K-K_______24.7_____38.6_____45.2_____52.9
A-3-3-6_______23.6_____30.3_____54.8_____62.2

3-3-K-K is best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select A-6 to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Saturday 2:10 PM

With n/d needing 10 points to win, play SAFE. Play off the lead although would pair a King rather than split the treys and offer n/d chance to score 15-2. Sets of well separated pairs often minimize pegging of opponent. That's sorely needed here. For those who live in the White House or Fairfax County Virginia have a Happy Transgender Day of Visibility. For those who identify as Christian, Happy Easter! For those identifying with neither may the rest of this weekend be a glorious experience.