Sunday 3:20 AM

Another pregnant 3s problem. I'm tossed AA and praying for a 3,6,or 9. Lead the 3.

   

Sunday 3:34 AM

Yeah, as much as dislike it, I think here is where the (A A) goes. Yes, we still have the 16 face card cuts for 8 points (2 points better) if I toss the (6 9), but on balance, I seem to risk much more by giving the (6 9) in case I DO get a "matching" pregnant 3 toss. (A A 3 3) looks pretty solid, but could still get jammed up in pegging, and because the count of ranks is so low, unlikely to peg a lot even with a cut for 8. Just glad I didn't cut a 2 for a would-be 16 pts. I don't see an experienced dealer readily pairing a trey lead here, so I'll try the more "optimal" 6 lead and hope to squeeze in some pegs which may land me around hole 44 if I'm lucky to begin next deal.

   

Sunday 4:04 AM

Plenty of useful cuts, and the 9AA eleven. Just two points to start with though.

   

Sunday 4:12 AM

I’ll risk it.

   

Sunday 4:18 AM

I need to get down the board and am taking the hand that gives me the most guaranteed points.

Happy Easter to all who celebrate it, and a wonderful Sunday to everyone.

   

Sunday 4:39 AM

I am going on recency bias .. Ive seen the 3 6 9 thing get positive cuts over the last few weeks live. Although that "ten" item pops up in my head. Same to all have a great day. dec

   

Sunday 4:44 AM

3/6/9 hands don’t improve much; doesn’t mean they’re always wrong, but when you’re looking at a lower-scoring hand with significant potential, that way should be better, at least for your own scoring. AA33 meets the bar imo. You could make a “reliability vs big boom” argument for 3369 but I would rather go for it. It improves on every cut but 4, 5, 6, and with many of them it improves “bigly”, as Trump would say… 3369 *fails* to improve on every cut but 3, 6, 9, albeit these are big scorers.

Wouldn’t quite say there’s “nothing to defend” here. Dealer is far enough up that he could jump the gun, or at any rate we could end up at something approaching a double marginal (41*-54 etc). Even so, I will put a huge premium on my own scoring, and would not actually play any defense, while recognizing that it’d be real nice for oppo not to get a ton of points... would be less of a concern if he was further back. AA isn’t that much safer than 69, anyway.

In general, I think the language of “defense” is kinda delusive and leads to misunderstandings. Normally, in other games, defense is about holding onto your advantage and preventing opponent from catching up – it’s static. In cribbage, defense means something else entirely.

By means, this is only 0.1 better. But this is a great illustration of how means can be misleading since these hands are as different as chalk and cheese. AA33 fails to improve at all about 25% of the time (like I said above) where 3369 always scores 6 at least. But AA33 will score 8 or more over 60% of the time, compared to 3369’s 17%. 3369 will score 12+ 17% of the time, but this way will score 16+ 9% of the time, to 3369’s 4%.

However, because the bot tends to lean hard on means, especially in early game, and since, by means, these are so close, I could easily see it going with AA, but I don’t think it’d be right. I also don’t think tossing AA is an awful play, and I get the case for it – after all, six points and a couple of pegs and we’re “in position”, and cuts for 4 would hurt, but gotta disagree. I want to be as far past par as possible, and think this is worth the risk of cuts for 4. But I’ll definitely read and think about the other side, and not just write it off as not even worth consideration… nor will I claim some sort of “VICTORY” just because the bot might happen to favor this play. I’ve tried to present all the relevant data honestly, and not just cling to those numbers that support me.

So far the person making the most thorough case for the other way is MtE; and I can’t disagree with him on much that he said, we’re just both seeing different things as more important. I’m seeing those big odds of +2 over 3369, not to mention cuts for 16, as worth more than the cuts for -2 to 3369; he’s seeing it just the reverse; and it is a close call. I also understand why he’d be a bit cautious about getting into some long run exchange with dealer at 36* - I talked above about the threat of dealer’s scoring here. I’m just leaning in much harder to offense, and we often fall on opposite sides on a call like that, and nothing wrong with that. Basically, I’m so afraid of a trend in my scoring like 34, 43*, 55, etc., L, that I’m not super shook about dealer making up his six point deficit in n-1. But I can’t say for sure he’s wrong.

Overall verdict – the gap between 69 and AA, as crib tosses, with the delta of the treys accounted for is, per Liam, 0.5; normally a gap worth considering, but not at this score.

Comparing the hands, this is more likely to score huge; it’s *way* more likely to score at least 8 (again, 60% vs 17%), and also about twice as likely to score 16. It does have cuts for only 4, but should be a worthwhile gamble, as the odds of this are only 25%, while the odds of this scoring over 8 are ~60%.

As for pegging – 3369 does have a four-card “21”, so you’ll peg four against XXXX (odds of dealer holding this are ~5% or a bit more with delta); or three against many/most hands full of high ranks; it also contains the 6-9 which is a reliable ploy (lead six and pair dealer’s nine).

AA33 will have trouble parleying its aces because of all the low ranks, but it still *could* do it (again, against a dealer hand with a high pip count). And you can make mischief with the bunched low cards in general, in all sorts of ways, if you’re lucky enough to meet a hand that meshes with it. One thing I like about two-pair hands is – say I lead a trey, then play my ace as my second card, many people will (rightly) reason “well the second card is the least likely to be from a pair”, and pair it, perhaps having no other safe response, and then I get a triple. I’m not really sure which of these hands is a better offensive pegger, I think either could do very well under the right circumstances, but will have a depressing tendency to fizzle out against most hands.

   

Sunday 5:10 AM

We are both barely on second street here so basically 75 percent of the game remains-Just too much board to risk an AA or 69 toss for mediocre holds of 3369 or AA33- keep the 4 point hand with 6 cuts for 12 or 14( four deuces and 2 threes)while also discarding the best defensive toss of A6- this position is not the place to make a bold stand-hold your ground and look for better spots down the board

   

Sunday 6:06 AM

Hey, didn't I also Toss (A 6) to my own Crib yesterday? It's becoming a vast, Ace-Six Conspiracy!

Yesterday's Wordle I hinted "Do we really have Space for this?" and the solution was FORCE.

Wordle 1,016 4/6 (not worth mentioning)

⬛⬛🟨⬛🟨
⬛🟩🟨⬛⬛
⬛🟨⬛⬛⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

   

Sunday 6:24 AM

Advice I've followed for many years from one of my mentors and an original ACC member: do not fear tosing the 9/9 and 6/9, so off they go. More cuts this way, little peggers, faces give me 8, and maybe that 2 will magically appear.

   

Sunday 9:24 AM

A 6 to dealer’s crib. Thought of throwing 6 9 and A A. Still not sure which would have been best.

   

Sunday 11:10 AM

I'll look at 3-3-6-9 (A-A), A-A-3-3 (6-9) and A-3-3-9 (A-6):

3-3-6-9: 6pts - 6pts (Schell: 6.02) = 0pt

A-A-3-3: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -2¼pts

A-3-3-9: 4pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.91) = -¾pt

Potential:

3-3-6-9: Improves with 33, 666, 999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 12/14/16pts with all cuts.

A-A-3-3: Improves with AA, 2222, 33, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 35 cuts = 76.1% up to 8/16pts with AA, 2222, 33, 8888 + 16xXs = 28 cuts.

A-3-3-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 33, 5555, 666, 8888, 999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 8/12/14pts with 2222, 33, 999 = 9 cuts.

Position:

We need the average 10pts to reach 2nd street positional hole for our next deal. However, every point past positilonal hole will increase our winning chances considerably so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think both A-A-3-3 and A-3-3-9 will peg well but with a magic 16 perhaps A-3-3-9 the best.

Summary:

3-3-6-9 is best for starting value by ¾pt over A-3-3-9 and
2¼pts over A-A-3-3 but A-A-3-3 has the most cuts for improvement and 28 cuts for 8/16pts so I think it may well catch up the 2¼pts. It also should peg better therefore I'll throw the 6-9.

   

Sunday 11:10 AM

At 34-36* playing a Defense strategy fpor the pegging the dynamic expected averages and WIn/Loss %s are:

_______________Dlr's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib____Total_____W6 %____W7 %
A-3-3-9____6.04+(-2.26)+(-4.49)=(-0.71)___14.4____33.1
3-3-6-9____7.35+(-2.57)+(-5.67)=(-0.89)___16.6____34.8
A-A-3-3____7.43+(-2.43)+(-6.13)=(-1.13)___17.3____34.7

_____________L6 %____L7 %
A-3-3-9_______20.5____40.3
3-3-6-9_______23.2____40.6
A-A-3-3_______24.9____41.4

A-3-3-9 is best for expected averages and although A-A-3-3 is slightly best for Win %s, A-3-3-9 is appreciably lowest for Loss %. As I'm recommending a Defense strategy I'll decide based on the Loss %s and expected averages and select an A-6 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead the 9 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Points
9____________________1.86
3____________________1.60
A____________________1.09

   

Sunday 11:33 AM

For those who live in the White House or Fairfax County Virginia have a Happy Transgender Day of Visibility. For those who identify as Christian, Happy Easter! For those identifying with neither may the rest of this weekend be a glorious experience. Choosing offense this day as need to reach 2nd street CPZ (43-47) for upcoming deal. That means leading the 9 and taking any pegs offered. If had 8 or more after the starter card, would have led the 3H. Nothing to defend from hole 34. HalscribCLX excellent analysis above shows the reasons for this (fewer dealer pegs and smaller crib). Most players are fearful of discarding 7-8 to opponent with an average of 6.671 289). Well now, 6-9 is not far behind with an average of 6.204 (421). In this configuration, the 6-9 would score slightly less because of 3-3 in n/d hand. The cribbot shows 6-9 average with that adjustment at 6.13.