April 2, 2024
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| Total votes: 287 | |||||
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Joined: October 2008 (4332 votes) Tuesday 3:07 AM
We are Pone at the intriguing score of (106-109*), trailing the Dealer by Three Holes, and we need Fifteen Points, or 50% higher than average, to WIN this game by completion of this deal.
We were dealt a Heart 💖💖💖💖 FLUSH along with an awkward PAIR 🍐🍐 of 5 Cards, so we can either hold the FLUSH and Keep (2h 3h 5h Th) and Toss (5s 9s) and start with Eight Points, or we might hold the PAIR of 5 Cards with either the Ten "T" Card and Trey with Keep (3 5 5 T) and Toss (2 9) and begin with Six Points, or hold them alongside the Deuce and Trey with Keep (2 3 5 5) and Toss (9 T) and begin with just Four Points. (3 5 5 T) has Twenty-Four Cuts (222, 4444, 55, TTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK) that yield Ten Points or more, while (2 3 5 5) has just Six Cuts (4444, 55) that yield Ten Points or more, so although it might serve as a Defensive Choice, we can probably eliminate Toss (9 T) from the list of candidates, as it has Seven Cuts (6666, 999) that sadly leave us with only Four Points. The FLUSH only has Six Cuts (6666, 999) out of Forty-Six that DO NOT propel the Hand up to at least Ten Points, and quite a few of those Forty Helpful Cuts, or specifically Twenty-Eight Cuts (Ah, 222, 333, 4444, 55, TTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), will bring us up to a Dozen Points or more! Now we're talking! Since well over HALF the deck, or 28/46 equals 0.609 which means that over 60% of the time, we shall "Cut our Way" to at least a Dozen Points, this makes the FLUSH an overwhelmingly compelling choice. The FLUSH has an Expected Value that exceeds all other choices by over Two Points, making it the only rational choice here. Let's Toss (5s 9s) today, and venture into the unknown! Even if the Dealer has enough to go out, which will occur more than 50% of the time, this is the only idea that gives us any reasonable chance of winning. Just as importantly perhaps, the FLUSH will with certainty minimize the Spread Points by which we may lose, a concern that in tournament play and during games with stakes, is nearly as important as winning. The better Cribbage Players are ALWAYS cognizant of managing Spread Points. After the Ace of Diamonds Cut, we now have Eleven Points in our Hand, and we have the challenge of needing to peg Four Points in order to WIN by the completion of this deal. This transforms a very good Cribbage Puzzle into a lovely Endgame Pegging Battle! We might also peg out as Next Dealer, when we would of course have the Pegging Advantage; but given the score, and the fact that we placed a 5 Card into the Enemy Crib, we should be pegging Offensively here, so let's lead the Ten "T" Card. Leading any other card is a mistake of the highest order! I'll peg aggressively during this deal, and gobble points as we can, and especially if I can score Two Holes with the Second Card Played, then I'll risk almost anything to obtain the final Two Points needed to prevail during this deal: we likely won't see another! Typically, we'd peg just HALF of what we need here, and if that does occur, hopefully the Dealer will also come up short, so that we can ultimately WIN during the Next Deal. But we cannot count on this, so let's peg aggressively. Pegging Four Holes with these cards is NOT unreasonable, but it requires being aggressive, and the Ten "T" Card Lead 🖐🏼🖐🏼 is really imperative. Here's an interesting Pegging Battle, which I believe finely illustrates the Offensive Power of leading the Ten "T" Card: (106-109*) (2h 3h 5h 5s 9s Th) April 2, 2024 by scottcrib. (2h 3h 5h Th) (5s 9s) vs (2s 2d 3d 4h) (8d Qc) Cut = Js First off, we should notice that if we had tried to maintain a Defensive Posture, and if we didn't retain the FLUSH, we would have already lost this game before starting. Only with the FLUSH can we possibly 'wrap things up' during THIS DEAL, and we're very unlikely to get another deal. The Jack Cut gives me a Dozen Points, but it also pushes the Dealer up to Hole 111. Aggressive pegging is required: T! (10) 2 (12) 3 (15-2) 3 (18=2) 5 (23) 4 (27=3) 2 (29-4) 2 (31=4), Pone = 6, Dealer = 9. As outlined earlier, we should lead the Ten "T" Card, and the rest of the pegging proceeds from this. After tallying the Jack Cut and the completion of the pegging, the score is: (112-120*), and as Pone, we WIN the game (121-120*) with First Hand Show! A wonderful Pegging Battle, disguised as a Cribbage Puzzle, has concluded. Yesterday's Wordle anti-clue: "whole 🌿 leaf" and my guesses were: SLATE, FROWN, FROND. My recent Wordle Statistics: 2 guesses (07.4%) 3 guesses (33.3%) 4 guesses (42.6%) 5 guesses (12.9%) 6 guesses (03.8%) Today's Wordle: Wordle 1,018 3/6 (whatever 🧪 cells) 🟨🟩⬛⬛⬛ ⬛⬛🟩⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 |
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Joined: November 2022 (161 votes) Tuesday 3:56 AM
It pays to flush! ♥️♥️♥️♥️
I kept this because I thought it gave me the best chance for a cut that gets us close to going out. A cut of A-2-3-4-5 or a X would all get us close. 7-8 are helpful but not enough and only 6-9 don’t help at all. Additionally, it’s a much better pegging hand and we’ll need all the help we can get! As for throwing the 5-9, two thoughts: - I’m hoping they won’t get to count it. - A much smarter player recently told me not to be so scared of the 5-9. It’s not as bad as your instincts say it is. Usually… As always, looking forward to hearing what the pros have to say! Jazzselke says: I would also recommend "Winning Cribbage Tips" by Dan Barlow. 50 chapters, some one page, covering all aspects of the game. ZulwarnGames says: That’s next on my list! JQT says: I assembled some Cribbage Resources about a dozen years ago back on June 18, 2012 on this site, and here is some of this info, with updated links:
If you really want to improve your Cribbage Game, you don't need to study permutations and combinations and get a four-year degree in mathematics (it wouldn't hurt, of course : - ), but I do strongly recommend the RAS Class Cribbage Video Series, which has been very nicely put together with an outline at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCX59D-99Ks
I recommend printing out all of the slides (PDF files) ahead of time, and then simply dedicate a certain amount of time, maybe a half hour every day, and carefully watch and STUDY one or two of the segments. I always learn something every time I watch these, and I've been through it three times already.
A while back, I ventured that there are more books published on Poker or Chess each month than exist in the entirety of Cribbage! If you've already read Wergin and Chambers and Colvert and all of Barlow, plus Cribbage World and Cribbage Forum online, Now What?! I try to pick up ideas anywhere I can, and once in a while, a book comes along that I believe can add to our ability to play Cribbage, in spite of it having nothing specifically to do with This Card Game Of Ours.
"The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" (a book about randomness and uncertainty) by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, is now in its Second Edition, in Paperback, and With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility."
Another gem I stumbled upon by a superb young writer is "Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error" by Kathryn Schulz. Remarkably, this is her first book, in which Schulz argues that, of all the things we're wrong about, our ideas about error are probably our "meta-mistake: we are wrong about what it means to be wrong."
She continues, "Far from being a sign of intellectual inferiority, the capacity to err is crucial to human cognition." She charts the three stages of our disbelief at other people's ideas when they differ from our own. (We first assume that they are ignorant, then idiotic, finally evil.)
Schulz observes how much we adore being right, and how we blithely assume that we nearly always are. Then she pulls the rug out, noting that being wrong, because we're blithely unaware of it, "feels like being right." I like her reasoning, and the way she coins terms such as "wrongology" and "confabulators" (the term "confabulatory personality" was great!).
Until more books are written about Cribbage Itself, we have to look for help wherever we can find it. I don't think either of these books would hurt. Another comment by Schulz I found highly interesting: "we declare ourselves convinced less because we are convinced and more because we need to be convinced of something, anything."
For those who still have yet to 'crack open' any of the books on Cribbage, here are some very good titles to get you started and enhance your Summer Reading pleasure: First there is that classic, "Play Winning Cribbage" by DeLynn Colvert; next try "Cribbage: A New Concept" by John Chambers; and now, a bit 'lighter' material is "Fun with Cribbage" and "Miracles on Fourth Street" by Dan Barlow.
And then there is Cribbage Software: first and foremost of course, by Hal Hal Mueller, is the one and only "Halscrib" and its close cousin "Rex Cribbage." I would also highly recommend "Royal Cribbage" (a.k.a. "Cribbage King") by Tim Schempp. It has a weak endgame (this part of the program was never completed to the extent that the other portions of the program were developed (via numerous e-mails I have pleaded with him to do so!), but the discarding and playing algorithms themselves are exceedingly powerful and extremely tough to beat. And for those who are inclined to maybe 'author' or develop a program or some code of their own, like his program itself, Schempp's algorithms are freely published and given in a few PDF files.
There is also some very good information on a few various web sites, such as Cribbage Forum (http://www.cribbageforum.com/) where notable players such as Michael Schell have given us a lifetime of valuable information that they have gathered.
On the (Cribbage.org) site, several excellent players and/or authors, including not only the infamous Elmer George "Ras" Rasmussen, but also Dan Barlow, John Chambers, and many others have provided TIPS and other information on This Game Of Ours. And if you know of anything about studying Cribbage that I missed, please add it here, or post it in the days ahead! guideontheside says: I haven't read it yet, but people have recommended "Cribbage - Not Just a Game: Introduction to Organized Cribbage - Tips for the Novice and Expert" by Norm Nikodym
Norm was a long-time beloved member of the ACC who hosted multiple tournaments a year in the Southern California area. We all miss him - the book was published just prior to his unexpected passing. guideontheside says: P.S. Thanks for the list! People new to cribbage are always asking me for resources - I will add them to my list. I also always send them here! ZulwarnGames says: Super helpful! Thank you all! |
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Joined: March 2008 (5986 votes) Tuesday 4:11 AM
I tried it this way. I needed a 5 or a 4. Didnt happen, chalk up an L. JQT says: With Keep (3 5 5 T), which I believe is the Second-Best Idea today, after a poor Cut Card, you might *still* play for a WIN with such a Hand, because Toss (2 9) is a fairly Weak Discard, and the Ace Cut may not be of any help to the Dealer. Leading the Trey is most Defensive, and we can only imagine the Dealer's surprise when each player is holding a PAIR of 5 Cards during the final volley of pegging, and the Dealer is leading! You could even try an Offensive Gambit and lead a 5 Card, because the Dealer might hold something such as (4 5 6 6), and the Dealer might panic, and resort to 'gobbling up' a 5 Card PAIR in order to dodge a possible RUN! (Just hope that if the "case" 5 Card was dealt to the Dealer, that in this scenario, it's tucked away in the Crib!) Now, after scoring your (15-8), you just need to peg One More Point in order to get to Hole 115 and WIN the game via First Hand Show: Never Give Up! |
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Joined: April 2008 (6650 votes) Tuesday 4:13 AM
Cut another five peg one possibility. Now get an hand of eleven points just maybe peg four with the 2-3. Or get another chance with a last bar end game. dec |
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Joined: June 2013 (4169 votes) Tuesday 4:44 AM
Lead the 2. |
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Joined: February 2009 (1559 votes) Tuesday 4:59 AM
Zul gives an excellent explanation this morning ZulwarnGames says: Thank you! Even a broken clock is right twice a day! SallyAnn3 says: FYI Zach: Rob is one of the top players in the nation, so that is very high praise :)
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Joined: February 2009 (1511 votes) Tuesday 5:34 AM
Needing 4 pegs, I like the 10 lead. |
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Joined: March 2009 (2748 votes) Tuesday 5:39 AM
Only way to start with 8 points, pegging possibilities and a chance to get close. |
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Joined: April 2011 (4337 votes) Tuesday 5:41 AM
Agree with the crowd |
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Joined: April 2021 (1266 votes) Tuesday 6:05 AM
Our only reasonable shot at winning is to keep the flush and peg enough to try and count out providing we get a good enough cut. There is no reason to try and "balk" the crib here with dealer already at hole 109, as this cuts down our scoring potential, and we are probably not going to "save" the day even if we are lucky enough to prevent dealer from counting out only 12 holes away. (This is in contrast imo to the hand a few days ago with dealer sitting at hole 103, and us more advanced at hole 109, where surviving into the next hand DID seem to provide us with another reasonable chance.) MiketheExpert says: The A doesn't seem like it will be quite good enough, but we have to try our best to peg 4. Lead the 10H J.W.B. says: Do you lead the 10 with the expectation thedealer will play a 5 that you can play your 5 for 2 pegs? John JQT says: Mike is correct in leading the Ten Card. The Deuce, Trey, and 5 Card all have Pegging Value that exceeds the Pegging Value of any Ten or "X" Card. By leading the "T" we not only retain the most Pegging Value to score later, but since Pone cannot score with the Lead Card, we are essentially "ridding ourselves of it" by leading it. Saving our best Pegging Cards for last is a tactic I refer to as, "Keeping Our Powder Dry." And yes, we would hope to PAIR a 5 Card if the Dealer scores Fifteen-Two, but we hope to also score some additional points as well, perhaps a RUN or Thirty-One, with our Trey and Deuce. MiketheExpert says: Thanks JQT. Hi J.W.B, yes as JQT has stated very well, my primary hope is to save my high-value pegging cards to score with later in the pegging or to trap a dealer low card...If he makes it easier for me by playing 15-2 on my 10 card, that would be all the more welcome! |
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Joined: November 2014 (3226 votes) Tuesday 6:36 AM
Playing to win I think we have little choice but to keep the flush.
And, even if we weren't on 4th street, I'd still keep the flush! ;-) |
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Joined: March 2014 (586 votes) Tuesday 6:41 AM
FLUSH! John |
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Joined: July 2017 (515 votes) Tuesday 8:29 AM
I say this all the time..... I hold the flush cards apart and make the other 2 justify not holding the flush and today, they could not. Only card that does not help us is a 9. And since we have one already, the odds of getting one of the 3 remaining just went way up against. |
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Joined: March 2020 (1090 votes) Tuesday 8:45 AM
echo, echo, echo... |
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Joined: July 2016 (1694 votes) Tuesday 12:27 PM
My friend JQT says it all for me; including the 10 lead. |
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Joined: November 2008 (5388 votes) Tuesday 1:39 PM
With dealer at hole 109, choice of strategy must be BOLD (aggressive offense). That tells n/d, needing 15 to win) what to discard and what to lead. Hold flush for 8 points, after seeing starter card and knowing of 11 points, lead the 10 and don't split 2-3 on second card played. Just might pick off a lone 4 or Ace or be able to pair a deuce or trey or perhaps both at end of pegging sequence. Several ways for n/d to get four pegs at end of pegging sequence with two consecutive small cards. Don't worry about the next deal. Try for the win on this one. Chances are very poor to limit dealer to no more than 11. That's one in 6! Ras2829 says: Some folks play cribbage a lifetime and haven't learned a thing about choice of strategy. What does one need to do to become strategy-conscious? First you need to be familiar with the Theory of 26 as espoused by DeLynn Colvert in "Play Winning Cribbage" Once you become familiar with that, you might find RAS' CPZ concept very helpful. The CPZ's (Critical Position Zones) are Fist Street 17-21; Second Street 43-47; 3rd Street 69-73; and Fourth Street 95-99. If dealing in those zones or beyond with opponent nearby, you have a positional advantage. Consider positional needs when looking at the pegs. That's the first decision point. Are you short, in the zone, or long? Based on that relative to the Street on which positioned, decide whether you need to defend an advantage, go for distance with offense, or choose a more nuanced approach described as optimal by HalscribCLX and cautious offense by Coeurdelion. Then look at the six cards dealt and use the same approach at decison point #2. Now the third decision point arrives with the turn of the starter card. To what degree does it add to the value of hand or the discards to your crib? As in decision point one, you had favorable position and decided to defend; so it was at decision point 2; the starter card makes a 17-point hand. Even though your choice to begin with had been defense, knowing of 17 points in hand, potential pegs and crib score, you might now switch to offense and move down the board in a mighty leap. Be flexible enough to consider strategy at each one of those three decision points and make a change based on the evidence stacking up in front of you. This will eliminate hunches, ease the decision-making process as to discard, and presentation of cards in pegging game. If this is all you knew about the game, your winning percentage would improve greatly, and the speed of your games would be accelerated. Fully consider these CPZ's whether dealer or non-dealer, choose strategy that seems to best fit your needs first. In close games, temper that choice dependent on needs of opponent. |
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Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes) Tuesday 3:43 PM
I'll look at 2-3-5H-10 (5S-9) and 3-5-5-10 (2-9):
2-3-5H-10: 8pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.15) = +1¾pts 3-5-5-10: 6pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.70) = +1¼pts Potential: 2-3-5H-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 55, 7777, 8888 + 15xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 11/12/14pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 55 + 15xXs = 31 cuts. Plus 9 heart cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt. 3-5-5-10: Improves with 222, 333, 4444, 55, 7777 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12/14pts with 222, 4444, 55, 7777 + 15xXs = 28 cuts. Position: We need 15pts to go out so I'll play Offense and try to win this deal as Dealer only needs 12pts to go out. Pegging: Playing Offense I think the flush will peg better and be harder to read. Summary: The flush is better for starting value by ½pt and has more cuts for improvement and 31 cuts for 11-14pts compared to 28 cuts for 10-14pts with 3-5-5-10. Plus 2-3-5H-10 has an extra 0.20pt. potential for a heart cut and should also peg better so I'll throw the 5S-9. |
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Joined: February 2008 (5541 votes) Tuesday 3:43 PM
At 106-109* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_________________Our Offense____Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total___Win %___Loss % 2-3-5H-10___11.37+1.67+(-6.15)=6.89____47.6____52.4 3-5-5-10_____9.04+1.37+(-4.40)=6.01____14.1____68.8 2-5-5-10_____8.52+1.28+(-4.35)=5.45_____9.7____68.0 2-3-5-5______8.57+1.96+(-5.30)=5.23____17.7____75.8 2-3-5H-10 is best for expected averages and best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select the 5S-9 to discard. After the AD cut I'll play Offense and lead the 10'; Lead______________Our Pegging Pts.___Win %____Loss % 10_____________________1.68___________17.8_____51.0 3______________________1.68___________11.7_____50.9 2______________________1.67___________13.3_____51.3 5______________________1.64___________13.2_____58.8 |
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Joined: August 2018 (1531 votes) Tuesday 3:49 PM
Late the party but agree. zeke76 says: Late to the … |
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