Wednesday 3:41 AM

Quite a few X cards available, so the two fives in A45J could become eight points. I've chosen to keep 445J though.

   

Wednesday 3:43 AM

Go wide.

   

Wednesday 3:59 AM

Thought for the day: One who sings their own praises soon becomes the only voice in the choir. Choosing offense to include the pegging at hole 55. Considered only A-K discard. Lead the 4D and take any pegs offered.

   

Wednesday 4:10 AM

Like the chance for a 3 or 6 cut for a double run,the A-K discard while holding 2 fours,and the 4 lead from a pair

   

Wednesday 4:23 AM

When over 80% of deck add on and there is a wide discard that is my calculated choice. Play position. Four lead. dec

   

Wednesday 4:40 AM

It's a tougher situation, but I don't see how this isn't the best call (which isn't saying much for me :P). Forgive me as I walk through my thoughts, and feel free to point out any errors in my reasoning.

Yeah, I'm praying for a 3 or 6 cut to make my par at 69~70, but I also don't want to accidentally help the opponent reach it either. And they have 3 counts to get there! Lead the 4 of diamonds to keep the option of a flush fake alive.

**Keeping 4-4-5-J** gives me 4 points, but 3 improves it to 10 and a 6 improves it to 14! Ace and 5 help us get to 8, which isn't anything to sneer at. And all those X and even a 7 will help. Essentially, all but 8 and 9 cuts improve the hand. 11/13 for improvement, 1/13 for excellent, 1/13 for good, 9/13 for average, and only 2/13 for poor hands.

**Keeping A-4-4-5** gives us only 2 to start, though many cuts improve it. Best would be again be a 6, giving us 14. 3, 5, and any X card give us 8. A 4 gives us 6 points (though I already know where two of them are). Ace, 2, 7, 8, 9 improve to only 4. 13/13 cards improve, 1/13 for excellent, 7/13 for average, and 4/13 for poor.

PLUS, you tossed the J-K which is considered 4.77 on average compared to A-K's 4.3 (according to Schell).

**Tossing the 5-K and keeping A-4-4-J** wasn't even one I considered. The sac of the 5-K is too much in this instance for me. You're going from an around ~4.5 point toss to a 7.25 one. Not worth it. Maybe if I was far behind or going for a skunk?

FYI. I'm using Chambers labels for hands. Excellent (14+), Good (10-13), Average (6-9), and Poor (0-5).

Played another online tourney last night on eCribbage. I'm happy to say that I won more than I lost (barely). Love the community on there! Super nice people!

   

Wednesday 4:45 AM

Offense with open-ended double-run, defense with negative delta holding the fours.

   

Wednesday 4:50 AM

In agreement with those above. Strong balking toss with additional negative delta as we have two of the 4s out of circulation), and keeping the touching cards together for chance for a double run hit in the hand.

   

Wednesday 4:58 AM

I'm going ham today. This keep has the best odds of getting us into position by a long shot. Cards are strong enough that I'd rather lean in hard to offense than worry about dealer scoring with him at 50*. Little to fear in the "front" from him - his deficit is 19 points there... I don't think 5K will let him outscore his averages by 19 points. And I don't think AK will do much to set him back.

   

Wednesday 5:48 AM

Excellent muddle of a hand on what to toss without gelding our own hand. No real path to high points so I tossed "da ends".
Firmly in the herd. Ok cut, a 6 or a 3 would have been great. Checked with Liam who supported the play.

   

Wednesday 6:27 AM

A tip of the hat , kudos & a thank you to Ras for his excellent post yesterday on strategy as it relates to board position. His methodology certainly applies to today’s puzzle. Above ..you can see the same discard all ( so far ) of the elite players have made when taking board position into consideration. Cribbage is a game of choice…and this is one of its most challenging & frustrating aspects of “this game of ours.” CHOD is certainly a place for different options. However, when Rob & Ras are in alignment …I am ready to learn from their choice.

   

Wednesday 8:13 AM

The Dealer trails us by Five Points on the 'back porch' of Second Street, but it seems very unwise to Toss (5 K) at this early juncture, so shall we instead throw the Ace or the 4 Card with the King?

Both Toss (A K) and Toss (4 K) are very similar, and both are about Three Points SAFER than Toss (5 K). If we throw the 5 Card, we're giving away a Crib worth at least Three Points higher in value, only to obtain maybe One Point higher in our own Expected Value. Then, unless luck intervenes, we might have to spend the remainder of the game "chasing down" our Opponent!

We could also consider Toss (J K), while we're at it, which only fails to get help after Four Cuts (8888). While this might be a viable decision at some scores, today's relative position is not one of these.

Let's Toss (A K) and balance our Hand with our Discard today. After the Th Cut Card, we now have Six Points; let's lead a 4 Card from our PAIR, which allows us to score after Twenty-Three Responses (AAA, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, JJJ), or greater than half of the remaining deck.

Yesterday's Wordle anti-clue: "whatever 🧪 cells" MEATY, PORCH, SERUM.

Wordle 1,019 4/6 (tying-triple but not baseball)

⬛⬛🟨⬛🟩
⬛⬛🟩🟩⬛
⬛⬛🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

   

Wednesday 8:28 AM

I considered toss (A K), but let's try the hybrid approach with a (4 K) toss today. Considerable negative delta in the crib, 8-10 pts with any X-card cut. It is doubtful we'll make it to 3rd street, and I'd as soon try to optimize my advantage by getting modest help in both the cut and pegging perhaps, rather than rely on the "big" cut.

   

Wednesday 8:31 AM

Not willing to toss the 5 today to keep 6 points. if I'm keeping 4 points, logic would dictate that I keep the 4-4-5 combo together. After that, I'm definitely keeping the J over the K (nobs and key connector). So, process of elimination, tossing the A-K.