April 3, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by horus93
55-50*  ?
50%
14%
12%
9%
6%
4%
1%
0%
Total votes: 286
horus93Aim at a six cut tossing AK? Or something more reliable, and toss 4K? Go ham and throw 5K?
james500
3915 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:41 AM
Quite a few X cards available, so the two fives in A45J could become eight points. I've chosen to keep 445J though.
Gougie00
5722 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:43 AM
Go wide.
Ras2829
5145 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:59 AM
Thought for the day: One who sings their own praises soon becomes the only voice in the choir. Choosing offense to include the pegging at hole 55. Considered only A-K discard. Lead the 4D and take any pegs offered.
horus93 says: I don't sing my own praises, and pretty frequently say "am not sure about x" or "so and so convinced me of x" etc. The big boaster here is jqt, who is incapable of rational argument and basically pretends to be an expert.
horus93 says: Also, can recall a number of times when you've sung your own praises, dismissing contrary opinions by bragging about your acc record. Not recently, but in years past certainly.
cribbagepogo says: Seems horus93 and jqt had volumes of word on this website. Ad nauseum. Pots should not call kettles black. Ras's accomplishments are well documented. Where are you in history?
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Why the 4d rather than the 4s?
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Your're sharp! Yup, should be 4S as if not pegging on the first card played, would want to keep 4-5 intact.
mrob2199
1427 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:10 AM
Like the chance for a 3 or 6 cut for a double run,the A-K discard while holding 2 fours,and the 4 lead from a pair
dec
6350 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:23 AM
When over 80% of deck add on and there is a wide discard that is my calculated choice. Play position. Four lead. dec
ZulwarnGames
123 votes

Joined: November 2022

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:40 AM
It's a tougher situation, but I don't see how this isn't the best call (which isn't saying much for me :P). Forgive me as I walk through my thoughts, and feel free to point out any errors in my reasoning.

Yeah, I'm praying for a 3 or 6 cut to make my par at 69~70, but I also don't want to accidentally help the opponent reach it either. And they have 3 counts to get there! Lead the 4 of diamonds to keep the option of a flush fake alive.

**Keeping 4-4-5-J** gives me 4 points, but 3 improves it to 10 and a 6 improves it to 14! Ace and 5 help us get to 8, which isn't anything to sneer at. And all those X and even a 7 will help. Essentially, all but 8 and 9 cuts improve the hand. 11/13 for improvement, 1/13 for excellent, 1/13 for good, 9/13 for average, and only 2/13 for poor hands.

**Keeping A-4-4-5** gives us only 2 to start, though many cuts improve it. Best would be again be a 6, giving us 14. 3, 5, and any X card give us 8. A 4 gives us 6 points (though I already know where two of them are). Ace, 2, 7, 8, 9 improve to only 4. 13/13 cards improve, 1/13 for excellent, 7/13 for average, and 4/13 for poor.

PLUS, you tossed the J-K which is considered 4.77 on average compared to A-K's 4.3 (according to Schell).

**Tossing the 5-K and keeping A-4-4-J** wasn't even one I considered. The sac of the 5-K is too much in this instance for me. You're going from an around ~4.5 point toss to a 7.25 one. Not worth it. Maybe if I was far behind or going for a skunk?

FYI. I'm using Chambers labels for hands. Excellent (14+), Good (10-13), Average (6-9), and Poor (0-5).

Played another online tourney last night on eCribbage. I'm happy to say that I won more than I lost (barely). Love the community on there! Super nice people!
JQT says: Very good analysis! Don't worry if you cannot imagine being able to perform such deep analyses and thoughts during an actual game: studying such hands often enough as you have done here, you WILL begin to make better decisions in real live games, and do so in less time when you play over the board or online!
Jazzselke
2583 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:45 AM
Offense with open-ended double-run, defense with negative delta holding the fours.
mfetchCT425
1393 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:50 AM
In agreement with those above. Strong balking toss with additional negative delta as we have two of the 4s out of circulation), and keeping the touching cards together for chance for a double run hit in the hand.
horus93
1281 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:58 AM
I'm going ham today. This keep has the best odds of getting us into position by a long shot. Cards are strong enough that I'd rather lean in hard to offense than worry about dealer scoring with him at 50*. Little to fear in the "front" from him - his deficit is 19 points there... I don't think 5K will let him outscore his averages by 19 points. And I don't think AK will do much to set him back.
sharp21 says: I'm with you. Keep the most in your hand, and work that pegging
sterno
451 votes

Joined: December 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:48 AM
Excellent muddle of a hand on what to toss without gelding our own hand. No real path to high points so I tossed "da ends".
Firmly in the herd. Ok cut, a 6 or a 3 would have been great. Checked with Liam who supported the play.
Eolus619
1334 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 6:27 AM
A tip of the hat , kudos & a thank you to Ras for his excellent post yesterday on strategy as it relates to board position. His methodology certainly applies to today’s puzzle. Above ..you can see the same discard all ( so far ) of the elite players have made when taking board position into consideration. Cribbage is a game of choice…and this is one of its most challenging & frustrating aspects of “this game of ours.” CHOD is certainly a place for different options. However, when Rob & Ras are in alignment …I am ready to learn from their choice.
ZulwarnGames says: Here here! I love the Ras videos and need to rewatch them again.
JQT
4143 votes

Joined: October 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 8:13 AM
The Dealer trails us by Five Points on the 'back porch' of Second Street, but it seems very unwise to Toss (5 K) at this early juncture, so shall we instead throw the Ace or the 4 Card with the King?

Both Toss (A K) and Toss (4 K) are very similar, and both are about Three Points SAFER than Toss (5 K). If we throw the 5 Card, we're giving away a Crib worth at least Three Points higher in value, only to obtain maybe One Point higher in our own Expected Value. Then, unless luck intervenes, we might have to spend the remainder of the game "chasing down" our Opponent!

We could also consider Toss (J K), while we're at it, which only fails to get help after Four Cuts (8888). While this might be a viable decision at some scores, today's relative position is not one of these.

Let's Toss (A K) and balance our Hand with our Discard today. After the Th Cut Card, we now have Six Points; let's lead a 4 Card from our PAIR, which allows us to score after Twenty-Three Responses (AAA, 3333, 44, 555, 6666, 7777, JJJ), or greater than half of the remaining deck.

Yesterday's Wordle anti-clue: "whatever 🧪 cells" MEATY, PORCH, SERUM.

Wordle 1,019 4/6 (tying-triple but not baseball)

⬛⬛🟨⬛🟩
⬛⬛🟩🟩⬛
⬛⬛🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. Can you give us a score where (J-K) would make the grade please?
JQT says: (A 4 4 5) is such a weak hand to start with, now that I look at it more closely, it's hard to find a place on the board where it works better than say (A 4 5 J); if the Dealer was any closer than about (110-105*) however, then I might Keep (A 4 4 J).
MiketheExpert
1114 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Wednesday 8:28 AM
I considered toss (A K), but let's try the hybrid approach with a (4 K) toss today. Considerable negative delta in the crib, 8-10 pts with any X-card cut. It is doubtful we'll make it to 3rd street, and I'd as soon try to optimize my advantage by getting modest help in both the cut and pegging perhaps, rather than rely on the "big" cut.
MiketheExpert says: No 5 in the crib for me, any other one works as far as I'm concerned.
MiketheExpert says: Numbers-wise, I'm going to have agree with (A K), I think I'd probably do this 80% of the time. But I felt this a good enough "other" option to be worthy of some consideration, which is why I may be the "lone voice" today in support of it :)
wasa
3011 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Wednesday 8:31 AM
Not willing to toss the 5 today to keep 6 points. if I'm keeping 4 points, logic would dictate that I keep the 4-4-5 combo together. After that, I'm definitely keeping the J over the K (nobs and key connector). So, process of elimination, tossing the A-K.
Annabella says: Agree, the pain threshold of tossing the five was not worth the extra hand points, as ( later) evident by the cut.