Sunday 3:24 AM

Another Yuck hand. I'll hold the heart flush.

   

Sunday 3:39 AM

Choosing offense to include the pegging, it pays to flush this day as it often does. The flush offers several opportunities for increased hand value benefitting from several more cuts than does holding A-2-2-10. In addition, holding the flush avoids discarding the 7-9 which has a higher average to dealer crib than does 2-7. Larger n/d hand potential, and a smaller crib give the "blush" the edge.

   

Sunday 3:42 AM

Should have wiped the sleep from my eyes. Didn't even see the flush!

Good draw though for a total of 8 in the hand.

I'll lead the two and try to peg more than 2 points.

   

Sunday 3:44 AM

I’ll take a chance on the first hand-any little card or picture will help my hand while providing no immediate help to the potentially dangerous discard of 7-9- that discard also scores a lot of zero and 2 cribs as well

   

Sunday 4:39 AM

I tend to flush when unsure.

   

Sunday 5:21 AM

I'll lead the 2h from the 2-7-2 eleven.

   

Sunday 6:08 AM

The flush allows a safer discard than the (7 9), so why not? (7 10) would force me to sacrifice 2 points although keeping the run possibility and better peggers. Usually if you can start with a flush and clear 2-pt head start, there would need to be a good reason to convince me otherwise. The cut only adds 2 points, so let's try and save that A-2 for some more pegs by leading the 9.

   

Sunday 6:12 AM

Tough decision between tossing 7-9 or 2-7. I’m sticking with the flush, I don’t want to be a part of a big opponent crib to open the game.

Leading the 9 to start the game, best case is probably a 9-X-10, followed by an opponent “GO” and a 31 for us, yielding a net one point pegging, assuming our opponent doesn’t hold an ace for last card.

Looks like we missed out on a couple points with the cut, but hopefully we can keep this hand low scoring for both parties. Ideally, it’s our deal at 8*-9. Let’s wait to play a little more offense until then.

   

Sunday 6:53 AM

Flush with a magic 11 and touching cards for runs.

   

Sunday 7:02 AM

The flush has way more cuts for improvement, and a safer discard. Even 50% of the X-Cards help the hand. I'll have to lead the 9 ,which allows Dealer to safely play one more X-Card than the 10 lead.

   

Sunday 9:28 AM

Win in the eight or the tenth deal. Less riskier discard. Two lead for me. dec

   

Sunday 11:24 AM

I think we must start with 4pts as First Pone so must keep either A-2H-9-10 (2C-7) or A-2-2-10 (7-9):

A-2H-9-10: 4pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.97) = -1pt

A-2-2-10: 4pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.26) = -1¼pts

Potential:

A-2H-9-10: Improves with AAA, 22, 3333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 7/8/11pts with 22, 3333, 4444, 5555, 8888, JJJJ = 22 cuts. Plus 9 heart cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-2-2-10: Improves with AAA, 22, 3333, 4444, 5555 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 8/12/14pts with AAA, 22, 3333, 101010 = 12 cuts.

Position:

As First Pone positional hole is at 18pts so I'll play Offense to try to reach or exceed it.

Pegging:

Both hands will peg well playing Offense but the flush will also be harder to read.

Summary:

The flush is a slim ¼pt better for starting value but also has 0.20pt. flush potential for a heart cut. It has more cuts for improvement and 22 cuts for 7-11pts compared to 12 cuts for 8-14pts with A-2-2-10. So although A-2-2-10 has the higher maximum I'll throw the suited 2-7.

   

Sunday 11:24 AM

At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense____Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-2H-9-10___6.76+1.83+(-4.75)=3.84____23.2____22.0
A-2-2-10____6.61+1.78+(-5.09)=3.30____23.4____21.6
A-2-2-9_____4.87+1.30+(-4.34)=1.83____19.7____19.6

Offense_______L9 %____L10 %
A-2H-9-10______38.1____52.1
A-2-2-10_______38.9____52.4
A-2-2-9________37.0____53.3

A-2H-9-10 is best for expected averages by 0.54pt. and is very slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 2C-7 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 9 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Points
9_______________________1.65
10______________________1.61
A_______________________0.93
2_______________________0.78

   

Sunday 12:29 PM

Might as well toss a coin?

   

Sunday 12:39 PM

Ha! I'm with Rob! Lots of room for improvement, whereas not much for the flush. I am willing to take the chance on the 7-9, especially this early.

   

Sunday 8:58 PM