April 22, 2024
30% | |||||
15% | |||||
14% | |||||
13% | |||||
5% | |||||
4% | |||||
4% | |||||
4% | |||||
2% | |||||
2% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
| Total votes: 305 | |||||
| SallyAnn3 | I tossed 9/10 |
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sharp21 189 votes Joined: January 2010 |
Monday 3:04 AM
Tough one! Gave up two points songs not to give Jake a head start sharp21 says: *so as |
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Gougie00 5740 votes Joined: March 2008 |
Monday 3:25 AM
Try it this way. I thought about 69 |
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zeke76 1406 votes Joined: August 2018 |
Monday 3:33 AM
I’ll give up two to get two more, but which two? |
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dec 6368 votes Joined: April 2008 |
Monday 3:53 AM
I went conservative early. Ten lead. I will note touching cards to crib. dec |
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mrob2199 1442 votes Joined: February 2009 |
Monday 4:03 AM
Tough puzzle today Sally-I went for the highest potential hand ( the J cut) -will lead the 10 SallyAnn3 says: Glad I made you think lol |
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Jazzselke 2592 votes Joined: March 2009 |
Monday 4:16 AM
Agree with holding the open-ended double run and 6 points as the first non-dealer. 1010 may seem like one of the better pairs to throw, but JQ a too common toss. We also have some negative delta against the crib. SallyAnn3 says: 2 more days! I got a 27 in our GRNT, so maybe my horrid streak is over and Deadwood will be good to me. Ras2829 says: Hi SallyAnn3: Nice score of 27 in GRNT - that ought to get you about another 60-80$ out of the prize fund. Good luck in Deadwood; don't sit at a poker table with your back to the door in the local saloon! SallyAnn3 says: TyTY. I am not a poker player. Dan and I are craps shooters! So I can stand and run if there is trouble lol
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HfxKen 894 votes Joined: February 2020 |
Monday 4:17 AM
As first hand pone , I want to get up the board as far as possible. Don't want to spot the dealer 2 pegs, but since it's the first deal, there's lots of board left. |
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MA2906Bptrs 203 votes Joined: October 2023 |
Monday 4:18 AM
I sent 6,10 over still have double run potential and less damage in their crib |
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Ras2829 5164 votes Joined: November 2008 |
Monday 4:49 AM
Choosing offense to inlcude the pegging as n/d of hand one, considered only discards of 6-9 and 10-10. The former has the edge in combined value (pegs, hand score, minus crib score). So, it is and lead 10D and take any pegs offered. These two choices are close (likely within .25). And 10-10 is not a low scoring pair on that side of the board as 2-3 and J-Q are very common dealer discards. A pair of tens to own crib scores much less as seldom will opponent toss 2-3 or J-Q. Discard averages for all 91 discards have greater value on the other side of the board, and some are much more. SallyAnn3 says: Interesting final sentence, RAS...hmmmmmm. Ras2829 says: Hi SallyAnn3: It took me a while to figure this out. To opponent crib 6-9 averages 6.204 (421); to own the average is 5.114 (2,590). To opponent 10-10 average is 6.187 (187) and to own 4.721 (780). Wrote a paper many years ago on the profound differences in 8-8 to own crib 5.496 (1,501) and averages 7.907 (205) on the other side of the board. Think that paper is still one of the playing tips documents on www.cribbage.org So, it is with all 91, though some are by a few tenths of a point. A serious problem in cribbage is that many are unable to recognize that there are two entirely different games being played at the same time, and they do not look much alike. Many players tend to recall that 6-9 or 9-9 does not do much to own crib. So that must also be true on the other side of the board. Most frequent dealer discard by wide margin is 7-8. How often can you expect 7-8 as discard to your crib? So, it is essential that players recognize that these two games are much different. Discard and peg values favor dealer throughout. Some folks attribute these differences to pure chance, Lady Luck, an Unhappy Cribbage God, etc. Truth is that most of the difference is a predictable result of probabilities. Ras2829 says: If somebody wanted to take the time to go back through HalscribCLX analysis, record crib values (+ for dealer and - for n/d), list the 91 discards, show dealer and n/d totals. Five years of data would likely give all the possible. Those would show + when dealing and minus when not dealing. SallyAnn3 says: Thanks RAS! :) |
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mfetchCT425 1404 votes Joined: February 2009 |
Monday 4:55 AM
Went for the balking 6-10, which includes some negative delta as well (holding two 9s and a 10). Still have chances for 10/12 points in the hand with the right cut. Would lead the 10. cribbagepogo says: I feel better now. Mike confirmed my feelings. Yea Mike. |
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james500 3933 votes Joined: June 2013 |
Monday 5:22 AM
As has been said, 9-9-10 in my hand has the potential to become valuable, 6-10 in their crib not so much. |
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Eolus619 1353 votes Joined: June 2020 |
Monday 5:40 AM
Thx Sally for the challenging puzzle ..it is worth review of an experiment that Ras, using his convoluted cribbage mind , conducted a 2000 hand experiment about always keeping max points verse considering board position & making balking discards when he deemed it appropriate. As you can see from this link below ,his win % increased substantially when he decided to play defense at certain positions. Ras counsels his “rules” apply 95% of the time..my problem ( well actually it’s one of many cribbage problems I have ) is figuring out when it’s the remaining 5% that is the best choice.
https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/uploads/5/6/7/4/56741021/keep_points_or_dont_keep_points.pdf and I am off to play at Deadwood this week…DCH’s long time commenter Jazz..Dan Selke ..is a co- Director ..Thx Dan..C U soon! SallyAnn3 says: BRUCE! We get to meet,then :) I did;t think anyone else from here was going but me and Dan. Nice! Eolus619 says: Great news!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! farleysma says: I’ll be there too! Eolus619 says: yes..nice to have more CHDers SallyAnn3 says: Yay farley :) Anyone else from New England?
SallyAnn3 says: oh wait..Wendyis going as well.:) mrob2199 says: Sally do you who Farley is? SallyAnn3 says: yessssssssssssss hahahahaha
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kal79 24 votes Joined: April 2024 |
Monday 5:40 AM
Tough one Sally. I’m throwing 6-9 in order to preserve my hand and it’s double run upside. Plus, 5-X hands always have a good chance of finding new friends with the cut, which we got on this one. I briefly considered throwing 10-10, but this gives our opponent too much upside in their crib should they throw a 5 or J-Q, or any other similar throw. 6-9 doesn’t play nicely with a lot of other common throws, so I’ll cross my fingers our opponent doesn’t throw another 6 or 9, or a 7-8.
The K cut helps us a lot, taking away the possibility of an opponent double run in the crib. Leading with the “off card” 9 here. I want to make an impression I have a double run hand, not a 5-10 hand. If things line up and I get the first go, after maybe a 9-Q-10 sequence for example, I’ll hope I can steal a 15-2 and either break even or net one point pegging 🤓 |
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ZulwarnGames 140 votes Joined: November 2022 |
Monday 5:51 AM
Why do I need to make tough decisions on a Monday? C'mon Sally! LOL
I kept the biggest hand potential, and I'm not too scared of the 6-9 toss (at least that's what I tell myself). I also considered the 9-9 for a possible 4 or 7 cut, but the lure of the double runs from an 8 or J cut was too much for me to overcome. Here's to hoping for a good week and even better cards for everyone on here (unless you end up playing against me 😜). SallyAnn3 says: C'mon Zack. You're a teacher---you can handle anything! Wait till you've done it for 35 years like I did hahaha. |
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scottcrib 1646 votes Joined: August 2019 |
Monday 6:13 AM
I pretended to throw 6-9, but instead threw 6-10 and I was therefore called for a balk. 😀 SallyAnn3 says: LOL...baseball season on CHOD. Annabella says: Scottcrib, you always make this ( DCH) fun! Thanks for the chuckle. |
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24hrb 479 votes Joined: December 2022 |
Monday 6:31 AM
Great puzzle 🤔 @SallyAnn3 thanks!! SallyAnn3 says: :)
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sterno 455 votes Joined: December 2020 |
Monday 6:53 AM
Agree good puzzle. The circumstances seem to indicate a strong balk is needed. Away the 6-10 unsuited. No easy 15 for two combo's to the enemy's crig.
Ok cut. I am out of the herd again. Checking with Liam.... I seem fine. Keeping the pair of 10s over the 9's seemed to be more popular. |
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SallyAnn3 914 votes Joined: March 2020 |
Monday 7:07 AM
I'm glad to see that this was a challenge for you. I made a better decision in the heat of the moment than I did today, and still was "wrong". I have a thing about keeping 5/6 together.I really appreciate all of the different ways you guys think :) Ras2829 says: Those who have voted this day have chosen 13 ways to hold this hand as of this posting. If responses exceed 10, that's testimony to the quality of a puzzle. You score big this day, and several have commented accordingly. Keep 'em coming! SallyAnn3 says: I post the ones that perplexed me in real games. My downfall is forgetting to have a pen and paper handy.
HaydenSr says: I like to just take a quick pic with my phone. Inushtuk1 says: Good idea. I tried it. Rather challenging holding the cards in one hand and the phone in the other for me. I usually try to write the hand and score on the back of the card; and if I'm really on my game, I remember to take a pic of that hand while waiting for the next game. |
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wasa 3026 votes Joined: November 2014 |
Monday 7:49 AM
Not too many people like my 6-T toss. Might learn something today SallyAnn3 says: Look again! That was the majority vote of commenters wasa says: Hi Sally. Hmmm maybe time to get my eyes checked! Although only 12% of voters liked tossing 6-T I do see a bunch of commenters liked this option. SallyAnn3 says: go with the majority of the commenters, wasa. Many o them are high level players--not me, though! Is why I come here to pick up tidbits they are so willing to share :) Ras2829 says: Looks like 5-9-9-10 has just broke 2%! So somewhere there are three others who made this choice. |
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MiketheExpert 1132 votes Joined: April 2021 |
Monday 8:16 AM
I like the negative delta associated with the balking crib toss of (6 10) enough to sacrifice 2 pts while keeping the open-ended double run possibilities intact. The K cut doesn't change the 2-pt starting deficit, but neither have I given up in the opponent's crib to start. Let's lead from our 9 pair and play the 5 next if it appears reasonably safe. (Or of course triple if our 9 lead is paired!) MiketheExpert says: (6 9) is a close next choice for me, which is also certainly a viable option as far as I'm concerned. MiketheExpert says: If either a 6 or 9 is cut however, I am glad I kept it this way.... MiketheExpert says: Playing it a little backwards, because I think there is a good chance for very few pegs and possibly a 0-pt crib - Even as first pone, I think exchanging 2 pts for these possibilities could be worthwhile. |
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Inushtuk1 1495 votes Joined: July 2016 |
Monday 9:02 AM
At 0-0* i have to go for maximum in my hand. At least the K cut gives me two more points, and doesn't seem to help Dealer's crib too much. I'm hoping the negative delta will be in play in their Crib as well. Lead the 10d, and take all I can get. |
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fentesk 1213 votes Joined: January 2021 |
Monday 9:53 AM
Focusing on myself to start the game and sent the 6-9 overboard. I will admit that I was surprised how well 6-10 performs when running the numbers, it was not an option I looked at very long.
I think even after seeing the numbers I'd still take the 6-9 toss to get down the board, but wonder, if originally choosing 6-10, if I'd also convince myself that was the correct choice for me. Nice puzzle! |
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RubyTuesday 919 votes Joined: January 2019 |
Monday 11:51 AM
Unsuited 6 10 for dealer as pretty much everything else would give points to dealer I didn’t want to give. |
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cribbagepogo 3253 votes Joined: October 2007 |
Monday 12:24 PM
Don't want to help dealer, even on first hand. |
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Coeurdelion 5604 votes Joined: October 2007 |
Monday 2:17 PM
I think it's between 5-6-10-10 (9-9) and 5-9-10-10 (6-9):
5-6-10-10: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.34) = -¼pt 5-9-10-10: 6pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.26) = -¼pt Potential: 5-6-10-10: Improves with 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 99 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 9/11/12pts with 4444, 555, 777, 1010 = 12 cuts. 5-9-10-10: Improves with AAAA, 555, 666, 8888, 99 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 12/14pts with 555, 8888, 1010, JJJJ = 10 cuts. Position: As First Pone positional hole is at 18pts so I'll play Offense and try to reach or exceed it. Pegging: I think 5-6-10-10 will peg slightly better. Summary: The starting value for each hand is the same and the number of cuts for improvement but 5-6-10-10 has 12 cuts for 9-12pts and 5-9-10-10 has 10 cuts for 12/14pts. So I think I'll throw a 6-9. |
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HalscribCLX 5327 votes Joined: February 2008 |
Monday 2:17 PM
At 0-0* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Our Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W9 %____W10 % 5-9-9-10S__6.78+1.41+(-3.74)=4.45____23.8____24.4 5-9-10-10__8.61+1.43+(-5.61)=4.43____28.1____24.4 5-6-9-9____8.43+1.48+(-5.69)=4.22____27.5____23.9 5-6-10-10__8.09+1.74+(-5.68)=4.15____26.5____23.3 Offense______L9 %____L10 % 5-9-9-10S_____35.0____49.1 5-9-10-10_____40.1____50.9 5-6-9-9_______40.5____51.4 5-6-10-10_____40.3____51.8 5-9-9-10S and 5-9-10-10 only differ for expected averages by 0.02pt while 5-9-9-10S is much lower for Loss %s and 5-9-10-10 is much higher for Win %s. So as I'm recommending offense in this position as First Pone I'll throw a 6-9. After the K cut I'll lead the 5 and play Offense: Lead_____________Our Pegging Points 5_______________________1.38 10______________________1.32 9_______________________1.21 Inushtuk1 says: Wow! The 5 lead. Ras2829 says: RAS chose the10D as a lead. Can see the value (though very small) of leading the five as it gets rid of that lone 5 as card one and leaves 9-10-10 intact to pick up possible run in next pegging sequence. |
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