Tuesday 3:02 AM

Trying it this way

   

Tuesday 3:09 AM

I hate going with two unrelated pairs in my hand. Never works out.

Sticking with the 4-card 11 in my hand and not giving up any points overall. Cut means I just might make the 15 needed to get out if I can peg a few.

   

Tuesday 3:45 AM

Hmm. I tried it a third way.

   

Tuesday 4:11 AM

I wanted to keep the AA3, "five", together, like. Zeke above. K6 is price I have to pay.

   

Tuesday 4:12 AM

Any cut but a two would due. X-6-X-3 go then peg four. Hope this isn't a sixteen point cut for them. dec

   

Tuesday 4:45 AM

We have the “ luxury” of not needing a monster hand here,so let’s hold the AA36 which will improve with every cut and provide us with decent pegging potential for 3-5 points

   

Tuesday 4:51 AM

Wanted to keep wide cards (and safely in numbers) in case they lead low (e.g., a 4 lead would be problematic for us with A-A-3-6).

   

Tuesday 5:30 AM

I thought about keeping A-A-K-K, but positioning strongly favors us, barring a monster hand from our opponent. Hopefully the 5 cut, or “everybody’s friend,” doesn’t enable this, and we can sputter our way to the finish line either on this hand or counting first on the next.

I’m keeping A-A-3-6…this hand has greater odds of improving my hand by a couple points, but not so much the home run type of hand. For pegging, I’m playing defense, avoiding any pairs in order to prevent an opponent pair royale and potential end of game for us. Hopefully the aces can yield a 31 for us and the only point our opponent gets is last card. Again, our biggest goal with pegging is to prevent our opponent from scoring.

With the 5 cut, we have at least 12 between our hand and our crib, eight more than we started with. If our opponent threw any pictures, that might be enough for us to go out. We’re guaranteed to be at 117 by the end of this hand, and we count first next time, so let’s slow this one down!

   

Tuesday 5:54 AM

Definitely pondered the 6-K toss, keeping the "better" A-A-3-K hand, but 6-K to crib is a poor toss needing 15 points to win. Keeping the two pairs is not something I often do, but 3-6 is about 0.7 more than 6-K (according to Schell). Always like a 3 in my crib (to hopefully go with the 2 my opponent likes to toss) and maybe the 6 will catch a 9. In any case, this is what I would do in a game.

   

Tuesday 6:01 AM

Well wasa, we're in good company since Fetch chose our toss as well :)and Gougie too

   

Tuesday 6:27 AM

When pairs are involved always worth a reminding review of the discard tables. You can see that Aces ( group #2) make Ras’s list and Ks do not.

https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen6.asp

Agree with Mike Fetch’s post, i need “protection” from a four lead

And..for extra credit ..note, as Pone, that discarding pairs to dealer crib has 11/13 pairs averaging more than six points

http://www.cribbageforum.com/SchellDiscard.htm

   

Tuesday 7:24 AM

A-A-3-6 looks nice; but those high value pegging cards could give up enough to put Pone out, or put him/her close enough with Dealer pegging advantage next hand. My (6-K) looks bad, but leaves me with a better escape card. The 5 cut could be quite helpful in the Crib. I'm Pone next at 115 minimum. I just need to keep current Pone from a big pegging score.

   

Tuesday 8:04 AM

With pone 16 holes out, I will bank on both this deal and next deal having the first count after seeing these cards. (A A K K) offers a solid escape opportunity in case of a 3 or especially a 4 lead, having 2 cards at the high or low end works fairly well defensively in my experience even without having the flexibility of different ranks. While having both A's can often be used to score back-to-back, or having to split them will usually not be disastr.ous. Safety in numbers DOES work much of the time. After the cut, I may switch gears to try and set my sights on getting out on this deal, with a little sense of caution here based on pone's opening lead.

   

Tuesday 8:40 AM

Tough call. I think I would rather have a sure combined 6 points plus 1 peg rather than throw a weak 36. Yes some danger with pegging
but don't want to be 10 out either.

   

Tuesday 10:03 AM

Wow! lots of comments on this one, and very different ideas, although 3rd and 4th place choices are very similar. I went this way for 3 reasons: 1) cut potential for enough to go out with some pegging, if not next hand 2) keeps me out of pegging trouble, esp with the usual 4 lead 3) potential for flush fake until the end, and perhaps 4 or more at the end!

   

Tuesday 2:32 PM

K K to my crib. Other have explained why much better than I can do!

   

Tuesday 2:47 PM

I'll look at A-A-3-K (6-K) and A-A-K-K (3-6):

A-A-3-K: 4pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.13) = 7¼pts

A-A-K-K: 4pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 8pts

Potential:

A-A-3-K: Improves with AA, 2222, 333, 4444, 5555 + 14xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 8/12pts with AA, 2222, 333, 4444, KK = 15 cuts.

A-A-K-K: Improves with AA, 333, 4444, 5555, KK = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 8pts with all cuts.

Position:

We need 15pts to go out this deal while it's unlikely that Pone will score enough so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg well and playing Defense perhaps A-A-K-K will peg better playing Defense but I favour the three low cards and a high card with A-A-3-K.

Summary:

A-A-K-K is better for starting value by ¾pt but A-A-3-K has more cuts for improvement and 15 cuts for 8/12pts while A-A-K-K just has 15 cuts for 8pts. So I'll throw a 6-K.

   

Tuesday 2:47 PM

At 106*-105 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W1 %____W2 %
A-A-K-K____5.65+(-1.91)+3.88=7.62____21.4____77.9
A-A-3-K____6.52+(-2.39)+3.02=7.15____21.6____76.0
A-A-3-6____4.91+(-2.35)+4.50=7.06____17.2____74.4

Defense______L1 %____L2 %
A-A-K-K________8.4____15.6
A-A-3-K_______10.8____17.4
A-A-3-6_______12.5____19.2

A-A-K-K is best for expected averages by 0.47pt. and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 3-6 to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

   

Tuesday 2:54 PM

Late to the party today but I’m going with the 2 pairs

   

Tuesday 4:05 PM

Considered only 3-6 and 6-K discards since choosing defense strategy. This type of puzzle has surfaced a few times in the past year. Holding well-spaced pairs often provides a fine opportunity to avoid pegs. Play off small and mid- cards with a King; play off X-pointers with an Ace. With cards at the ends of the deck, should be able to wiggle out of problem on the pegs. This often works this way with hands of four points when dealing, especially if small pair of Aces or deuces and the upper pair of Q-Q or K-K. With n/d needing 16, dealer if not winning this deal will be in good shape to do so on the next deal. Might have picked up a 4 or 7 (perhaps both) discarded to crib, and crib score will put dealer in the game hole with no need to look at the next six cards.