Wednesday 3:17 AM

Need to keep points sonthe 6-9 stays. That means the 7 is coming along for the ride to hopefully make a straight.

Choose the 4 for the fourth card in case a 5 turns.

   

Wednesday 3:36 AM

This is yucky hand week. Try it this way. The 34 has the potential of getting help.

   

Wednesday 4:06 AM

Not exactly a stirring hand at this juncture of the game-let’s play for the 2 cut -a 3 card lead opening match could net us 4 pegging points

   

Wednesday 4:12 AM

Needing our place to go eight to ten points we might gain more points by pegging with this keep. Goal two to five pegs with that eight point cut.We can only control to a point where we end up. dec

   

Wednesday 4:12 AM

Gotta keep the 2 points. Throwing mid with J to balk crib as best as i can after that. Leading 6 will give me good replies if paired or 15'd.

   

Wednesday 4:30 AM

This hand can be described pretty well as “yuck.” I knew the J was going to go and the 6-9 would stay, but tossing the 3 or 7 was a more difficult choice. While 7-J is the best balk we can throw, I’m going with 3-J to give myself the best shot I can to hit a run on the cut, hoping to keep myself within striking distance for the next hand.

Turns out 7-J would’ve yielded two more points than 3-J did 🤓 That being said, I still have six in my hand, and both 4-6-7-9 and 3-4-6-J are strong offensive peggers, so I’ll lead with my 4 and play on, but not too reckless.

The good news is that barring a 2 toss to our opponent’s crib, their crib should be marginal. I’d feel a little more uncomfortable throwing a 7 and seeing the cut. After the cut (and reading the other comments on this hand), I’d probably throw 7-J just for the pegging benefits, but I didn’t sabotage myself with the 3-J throw either.

   

Wednesday 4:55 AM

Like the pegging flexibility with this hold slightly more than other viable holds. 3, 5, 6, or 9 cuts to get us to 6, 8, or 9. Like the 6 lead here which is protected by our 3 or 9 if opponent pairs or 15’s us. And maybe we employ our 3-4 combo for some needed pegs later in the pegging sequence.

   

Wednesday 5:10 AM

Choosing offense to include the pegging as need to reach 3rd street CPZ (69-73) for next deal. Since choosing offense, potential hand score and slightly smaller average crib score provides the edge over discarding 4-J. Want to keep the 3-4 of high pegging value intact; so, will lead the 6 and take pegs as offered. With 8 points after seeing the starter card, 2-4pegs would be a very nice addition.

   

Wednesday 5:12 AM

Ras would counsel..look at the pegs and then the six dealt cards ..pick a strategy…So..for me the 7-J gets tossed..it is also on Ras’s list of Pone discards averaging under five..as to board position..i can hear Dylan singing..it’s not dark yet but it’s gettin there

https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen7.asp

   

Wednesday 5:13 AM

Pegging potential as noted; mild protection against a 5-cut.

   

Wednesday 5:14 AM

Lead the 6, and I can score whether paired or, "fifteened". Kept the Jack since 1/4 times it'll be worth a point.

   

Wednesday 5:19 AM

Thank you Horus93 for this morning's dog dish of a hand. It is hands like these I feel I do not optimize my score and therefore tend to lose tight games. 7-J away since it is a good balk and leave me with a hand of "potential".
Ok cut. Split herd this morning btwn throwing 7-J vs 4-J. Checking Liam.... tis a tough morning when as pone the dealer's crib has a higher expected value than our own hand.

Interesting posts on the difference btwn 7-J and 4-J

   

Wednesday 6:00 AM

Try to balk the crib

   

Wednesday 6:32 AM

This is where knowing your opponent matters so much.

Some players will never, ever pair a lead card here. In a spot like this against a conservative opponent, I’m leading the 9 and hoping they either neglect to dump their 5, or have a lone 6.
If I’m lucky, they have XXX5 and I’m able to get a critical 31 for 5.

   

Wednesday 6:58 AM

Thinking offense once seeing the cards, and certainly after seeing the cut. What started as a very poor hand suddenly has some opportunity once the cut provides us 8 points. Let's lead the 6 as it covers the most scoring opportunities and also leaves the 3-4 intact for a potential run or trap. Hole 69 now certainly seems like a reasonable or attainable goal to deal next hand.

   

Wednesday 1:12 PM

I'll compare 4-6-7-9 (3-J), 3-6-7-9 (4-J) and 3-4-6-9 (7-J):

4-6-7-9: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.86) = -2¾pts

3-6-7-9: 2pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.85) = -2¾pts

3-4-6-9: 2pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.68) = -2½pts

Potential:

4-6-7-9: Improves with 2222, 444, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/8pts with 2222, 444, 5555, 666, 8888, 999 = 21 cuts.

3-6-7-9: Improves with 2222, 333, 5555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/7/8pts 333, 5555, 666, 8888, 999 = 17 cuts.

3-4-6-9: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 5555, 666, 8888, 999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 6/8/9pts with 2222, 333, 5555, 666, 999 = 17 cuts.

Position:

We need 12pts to reach 3rd street positional hole so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg similarly.

Summary:

3-4-6-9 is best for starting value by ¼pt and while all these hands have the same number of cuts for improvement 3-4-6-9 has 17 cuts for 6-9pts with the best maximum. So I'll select the 7-J to discard.

   

Wednesday 1:12 PM

At 58-60* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W4 %___W5 %
3-4-6-9____4.35+1.74+(-4.63)=1.46____5.5____25.8
3-6-7-9____4.17+1.43+(-4.84)=0.76____5.0____24.5
4-6-7-9____4.30+1.41+(-5.010=0.70____4.9____24.0

Offense______L4 %___L5 %
3-4-6-9_______12.9___47.0
3-6-7-9_______13.5___48.7
4-6-7-9_______13.9___49.4

3-4-6-9 is best for expected averages by 0.70pt. and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 7-J to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll lead the 9 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Points
9_______________________1.80
6_______________________1.58
3_______________________1.57
4_______________________1.35

   

Wednesday 1:14 PM

I kept it this way for the three card 16 and the 5 card trap. So, leading the 9. I noted with interest Rob's 3 lead for a possible (15-4). I assume that is what he was alluding to.

   

Wednesday 3:08 PM

7 J seemed the most unhelpful throw to my opponent