Daily Cribbage Hand

May 11, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by dph

109-100* ?

			39%
			16%
			15%
			13%
			3%
			3%
			2%
			1%
			1%
			0%
			0%
Total votes: 236

dph	CribbagePro hand (my choice was rated 100 by the app but I remain skeptical). I threw the aces in hopes of a 5 or 2 cut (10C was cut). Dealer kept A-4-4-J so I don't think I would have managed to trip the aces anyway.

Gougie00
5825 votes

Joined: March 2008

Saturday 3:33 AM

The 10 starter renders all the strategy moot. Lead the 6 and parlay the AA. Maybe.

mrob2199
1495 votes

Joined: February 2009

Saturday 3:56 AM

mrob2199 says: I’m playing for the 20 cuts that get us to at least 8( 16 pictures and four deuces)-this hold also provides great pegging potential as well

dec
6472 votes

Joined: April 2008

Saturday 4:18 AM

Are these hands being taken by Dan Barlow's Miracle on 4th street ? Seen a few of these lately. Which two for me to give up? I will take the amounts of cuts possible and pegging value of these cards. dec

horus93
1330 votes

Joined: December 2017

Saturday 5:00 AM

This should give us the best shot to get into peg-out range and today as yesterday, with dealer already at 100*, I'd rather be bold than cagey. Approaching it "gut-wise" without counting cut by cut, the AA66 and 3466 jump out; then I think "eh there's no nickle(s)", then I think "even if I do cut a X holding AA4? it's only six points, often wouldn't be enough even with pegging." So between AA66 and 3466, 3466 looks to have more helpful cuts. And checking Liam, this keep does give us the best odds of scoring 9, 10, 11, 12 points off the cut by a solid margin. However, toss A4 to keep A366 is 10% more likely to give us a min of 8. Still think this is preferable. As for pegging, a couple of bullets is nice, but so is the 664 five trap - I don't think this is worse enough of a pegger than the other choices for that to make one of the others preferable. Dealer at 100* won't be able to muck his hand for defensive pegging and may well be vulnerable to the trap.

MiketheExpert says: Hi horus, all is not lost with this, as it gives us at least 6 automatic winning cuts (5555,66) and the 4 deuces practically win as well needing only 1 point to peg. The (A A) is safer than the (6 6), and I think we still have a good chance to see the next deal if we can't get out. The main issues seem to be the number of cuts which offer little to no help, plus with dealer ought to be on maximum defense, it will also be tough to generate much in the way of pegs if we do get a cut (such as any X) which leaves us short. There is certainly no perfect choice today, and all of these decisions have their own individual strengths and weaknesses.

Inushtuk1 says: Hi Mike and horus. The deuces do put us out in fact with the 2-3-4-6, four card 15-2 doubled.

Inushtuk1 says: Scratch my previous sentence. Can we edit out my previous sentence. LOL.

MiketheExpert
1214 votes

Joined: April 2021

Saturday 5:02 AM

Great puzzle, a real head-scratcher! And similar position as yesterday, thus it feels like we should play offense, but how?? Yesterday I threw (6 6) and today this seems like a solid option as well, as (A-A-3-4) leaves us with a hand that improves on every single cut...How will this fare as a pegging hand vs. the much safer throw (3 6) while keeping (A A 4 6) however? How about starting with 4 pts and keeping (3 4 6 6)? Too much sacrifice of hand improvement on the cuts as well as pegging potential maybe...Yesterday I mentioned the pegging combo of (A 4 6) being a great one for pone! And that normally I would rely on hand strength before keeping one with great pegging strength...Can I justify a MUCH safer crib throw and increased pegging strength with a hand such as (A A 4 6) here? This hand also improves on every cut except for a deuce! In this instance, I think it CAN be justified. I'll try it this way, and after that X-card cut, it would seem I have better chances here and on the next deal with the added safety of that crib throw.

MiketheExpert says: Now if I had kept (A A 3 4), I actually start with 2 more points here. We are at an automatic hole 117 with any X-card cut. But now chances are higher that we will need to count out here, but with dealer at hole 100, the risk of (6 6) is still not that high....Could these extra 2 starting pegs with any face-card cut be worth it here...It could be, in fact. And if we were starting at hole 110, or for sure hole 111, I would have to say go for it all for sure.....

MiketheExpert says: @dph, As per CribbagePro, if (3 4 6 6) is offered here as the top rated (100) choice, I would have to say it is not fully taking board position and pegs into consideration. I would choose either the (A A 3 4) or (A A 4 6) option in preference to this here.

MiketheExpert says: I think the practical win with any deuce cut, and starting with 8 pts with every X-card cut may in fact win the day, as the pegging hand is still good enough (A A 3 4), and dealer is still far enough back that the (6 6) is not too dangerous. Could be good enough to put this one into first place, but we shall see.

Eolus619 says: Morning MtE…seeing the 10c as the cut ..what is your lead from A-4-6…? thanks

MiketheExpert says: Good morning Bruce. I would try the 4 in this spot. I can't see dealer risking a pair of my opening lead in this spot, and so I want to keep my A's intact while leading from the middle of the 3-card 11. I think it is the best chance for 15-2/31-4 combo, or to keep A-A for a score late in the pegging, as dealer is even more liable to drop some other card on my A lead, then I may be in no-man's land.

Eolus619 says: thanks MtE makes sense to me ..no doubt ..this is a critical decision based on score

dph says: I agree that CPro's ranking doesn't reflect the board position. Thanks for your thoughts.

bbaer1 says: Especially in end game scenarios

JFS147 says: Correct, Cribbage Pro is showing what the highest hand average +/- crib average is for a given discard. It is not trying to represent a complete strategy, but provide you with information to inform your strategy. As such, it is not representing a choice based on pegging potential or board position. Sasid another way, the top Hand Grade in Cribbage Pro does not mean it is the "right" choice in any/all situations.

Ras2829 says: Hi MiketheExpert: Some great analysis and comments. Appreciate your willingness to share those with others.

MiketheExpert says: Thanks Ras, I appreciate the support!...And now looking, I see that HAL (surprise!) has gone with the popular choice of (3-4-6-6). Could it be those number of 11-12 pt hands (10/46) cuts could be the solution after all? In that case, with the dud cuts, have to lead the 6 and see what we can salvage on the pegging after a missed cut. Maybe sometimes the simplest solution is the answer after all.

mfetchCT425
1456 votes

Joined: February 2009

Saturday 5:22 AM

Tough one. Went with the 3-6 toss with a little negative delta. We keep the 5s in our hand for any face cut, plus nice help from cuts of A, 4, 5, 8, 9. We also have some pegging potential with the A-4-6 three card magic 11.

MiketheExpert says: This hand also has more 5-card cut insurance. Even though the 5 improves (A A 3 4) with the run, it is only a 5-pt hand, and we have thrown (6 6), which leaves us in a very sticky situation. We have a 7-pt and perhaps a better chance of surviving if this were to happen. It is the deuce cut here that would be a real bummer, leaving us with only 2 pts and filling that 5 in dealer's crib.

Eolus619
1432 votes

Joined: June 2020

Saturday 5:40 AM

As Pone ,there better be a very good reason to toss pairs across the board , because 11/13 average over six points …5s,6s & 7s average over 7 points in dealer crib. Seeing no Xs ..keeping A-4s & Aces for pegging…….I do see the value of tossing 3-6…this puzzle may save me from myself in the future ..which is one of the reasons I am here to begin with !

http://www.cribbageforum.com/SchellDiscard.htm

james500
4013 votes

Joined: June 2013

Saturday 6:18 AM

4A6 combo, (conveniently also a flush here), might bring four pegs.

SallyAnn3
965 votes

Joined: March 2020

Saturday 6:30 AM

Ditto what Rob said (pretty much exactly--scary! lol)

asevenson
2977 votes

Joined: August 2011

Saturday 8:48 AM

I was thinking along the lines of mfetchCT425 - I I plan to try to get close enough to peg out next hand as dealer.

Eolus619 says: morning..think we all would appreciate & benefit from someone with a 2903 vote total commenting more frequently..looking fwd to it !!

asevenson says: Thanks Eolus - don't post much as usually don't have much (if anything) to add. I consider myself a mere student if this fine game.

Ras2829
5244 votes

Joined: November 2008

Saturday 10:38 AM

Seriously considered only 3-6 discard. The 4-6 would be next in line. Choosing offense to include the pegging at hole 109, lead the four spot and take any pegs offered. A six-point hand needs to gain 3-4 pegs for a reasonable chance to win with dealer pegging advantage next deal. Don't split the Aces - risk giving up a few pegs to dealer in order to keep those intact. Dealer needs 21 to win - that's room to score pegs for n/d w/o excessive concern for dealer pegs. In such situations very important to focus on own pegging needs and don't fret those scored by dealer. This hand benefits from starter cards of A, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, and K. Holding the majority choice of 3-4-6-6, hand benefits from cuts of A, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, and 9. Some fine comments this day.

Ras2829 says: If not this A-A-3-4 would have been my second choice. Am sorry would not have got around to holding the 3-4-6-6.

Coeurdelion
5674 votes

Joined: October 2007

Saturday 10:42 AM

If we keep A-A-3-4 (6-6) we have 16 cuts for 8pts (16xXs) and 4 for 10pts (2222) and a good hand for pegging a few points. So I'll risk the 6-6.

HalscribCLX
5400 votes

Joined: February 2008

Saturday 10:42 AM

At 109-100* playing an Optimal strategy the Win/Loss %s are:

Optimal_______W1 %____W2 %____L1 %____L2 %
3-4-6-6_______25.3____43.4____15.5____49.6
A-A-3-4_______21.7____44.6____23.9____46.8

3-4-6-6 is better for Win %s and lower for Loss %s so I'll select A-A to discard.

After the 10 cut I'll lead a 6 and play Offense:

Lead_________Our Pegging Points
6___________________1.67
2___________________1.12
4___________________0.87

Inushtuk1
1569 votes

Joined: July 2016

Saturday 10:57 AM

I went the same way as yesterday. Keep the 4-6-6 five Card Trap in play. Plus at least 8 cuts put us out (2222,5555). I will go back and read all the other comments today, to see what I am missing.

MiketheExpert says: Hi Mike...I am still counting 11 points with a 2 cut...I see 6 pts for the 15's, the run and a pair makes 11.

MiketheExpert says: The other 2 6's however give us a dozen, so those ones do...

Inushtuk1 says: Hi Mike. I'm afraid I owe you an apology. We'er at 109; *not* 110. And I missed the remaining two 6's.

MiketheExpert says: Hey, that's fine. And yesterday we WERE at hole 110. Whereas today, that would give us 10 WINNING cuts. It seems that you can go for the cut or the pegging, but not both. So, truly a magnificent puzzle submission from dph today.

Sgt Pegger
363 votes

Joined: July 2017

Saturday 1:45 PM

AA rarely does well in the pones crib from my experience. Lead the 6 and take it from there.

RubyTuesday
987 votes

Joined: January 2019

Saturday 2:05 PM

A A to my opponent.

kal79
104 votes

Joined: April 2024

Saturday 3:21 PM

Kept the 3-4-6-6 for the same reasons Inushtuk1 said above!