May 12, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by Andy (muesli64)
118-118*  ?
26%
22%
13%
9%
9%
7%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 253
glmccuskey
4188 votes

Joined: April 2011
 
 
 
Sunday 3:15 AM
I plan on leading a queen and holding my opponent to two goes.
Gougie00
5826 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 3:28 AM
No low cards to lead, and nothing here that adds to 11. Ugh. Lead the Queen and pray we survive the pegging.
MiketheExpert
1214 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Sunday 3:31 AM
Not that we need the flush, but for posterity's sake. I expect to have to peg my points, but this hand should give me the best chance to either peg or count out first. Lead the 7, as dealer should be very nervous about pairing or 15'ing this card with pone 3 points out...He may likely end up throwing either a low or high card instead, and if it is the K, you never know, we could end up pairing for the go and win right here and now. In fact, now that I am thinking about it the proper keep may be the spaced (5 7 J K) instead, and pitch both those Q's, since we have 2 of them, dealer would be less likely to play one of them.
MiketheExpert says: The Q is still the safest X card to play however if we are forced to lead at some point, which is likely.
MiketheExpert says: There may be times that dealer will pitch a 3 INSTEAD of an 8 to 15 upon a 7 lead...There may be other times he will just go for it and take the risk if he will have trouble pegging 3 points. From his perspective, he needs to peg out, so the 7 lead, trying to throw him off may not always work. If he does hold a 5 especially, I could see this (7-3-?) line coming into play. In that case, if we get the first 15-2, good chance dealer will then be forced to pair the 5...The A is the only card that could then save him.
MiketheExpert says: 7 is just not a really good card to keep around imo, as we definitely don't want to lead it any other time than first card...It does have some moderate pegging value, but would we want to pair it if pegging goes (Q-7-?), or would we want to take our chances instead of playing another high card, and holding dealer to pegging less than 3...
MiketheExpert says: I would definitely play it next on a line such as (Q-9-?), rather than my remaining high card, assuming then dealer hand does not hold a 5 (so making the count 26 seems to be the safest we can do).
james500
4014 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Sunday 3:35 AM
This would've been a great hand to have been dealt earlier in the game.
Samgash
421 votes

Joined: November 2016
 
 
 
Sunday 3:59 AM
I guess lead a Q, probably lose…
dec
6473 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Sunday 4:01 AM
More about keeping the seven maybe for a late go. Oh its a Queen lead hope they did not get dealt a five. dec
mrob2199
1495 votes

Joined: February 2009
 
 
 
Sunday 5:33 AM
Not exactly an ideal hand at this late juncture of the game-no matter what we keep our hold will be fraught with great peril-we need the 7 for a lead because dealer will be too afraid to 15 it -if the dealer has a 5 he’s likely keeping it here-so therefore we DONT want one in our hand-our best hope is a picture card response or dealer using 2 cards for his go
Eolus619 says: Rob..thanks for your insight on not keeping the five …when it comes to pegging..saving myself from myself can be nearly overwhelming at times.
MiketheExpert says: Hi mrob. I was thinking along the same lines as you with the 7 lead. I assume your real hope is only to prevent dealer from pegging 3 points. Unfortunately seems like we need to force a go in this scenario no matter what we do. I assume if dealer is going to use 2 "small" cards for his go, we are only left with face cards, so we are lost no matter what if dealer holds a 5, having to lead one. That would be the same result even if we held onto the 5, then having to lead either that or a face.
MiketheExpert says: However, I see advantage of holding all 3 face cards, in that now we have a great opportunity to win by pairing ANY face card response to this 7 other than the 10! This could in fact be the best solution.
MiketheExpert says: *greater meaning better, not great :)
zeke76 says: Couldn’t you make the same argument about a Jack as a Five!
Eolus619
1432 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Sunday 5:33 AM
Of late , we have been having some good discussions about pegging..recognizing pegging potential and the what & why for leading as Pone & reply as dealer. For those working on improving your pegging , Ras, in his video class, has conveniently listed the keeps that he feels have the best pegging potential for either Pone or dealer. If you are new to the game, I would recommend taking the entire pegging class ..which starts week three part 10…
1)here is the best potential pegging link..suggest you print it . https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/uploads/5/6/7/4/56741021/lesson5-3.pdf

2) here is the link to the entire class… https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/strategy.htm
Eolus619 says: And to all the Mother’s ..a most happy day for recognizing you !
MiketheExpert says: In many cases at these scores, there is no benefit to keeping the 5 in the hand, and it becomes a liability instead. Seeing as we are most probably "lost" no matter what if dealer holds onto a 5 (with the possible exception of the 7 lead scenario I mentioned in my post), it is probably worthwhile to assume that dealer does not have one, so this could definitely make a case for the lead of a Q, trying to force a go. Thus the 5 is more liable to benefit us at some point with a score I think if we hang onto it, than to hurt us in this situation. The sad truth is we are in big trouble no matter what with this deal - very tough to peg 3 points, and also difficult to hold dealer to less than 3. There seems to be arguments for leading either the 7 or a face card, but the sun is not looking very bright either way.
wasa
3101 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Sunday 5:52 AM
It might pay to flush...? No low cards, need to keep at least 3 points.
zeke76
1487 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Sunday 6:10 AM
I like the pair of queens for some safety. I wanted two low cards to keep the count down and also worried dealer would hold a jack if they had one. That said, Rob’s the pegging guru, so his warning about the five is undoubtedly correct.
Eolus619 says: FWIW…Ras says the Dealer’s “J” ends up in his/her crib VERY frequently
Eolus619 says: K most likely face to be held by dealer
zeke76 says: Interesting.
kal79
104 votes

Joined: April 2024
 
 
 
Sunday 6:15 AM
This type of cribbage game is the most exciting! Down to the wire and both sides could peg out. As with most of you so far, my discard was made with the intention of pegging out, even though standing our opponent up on pegs could also get us there.

I knew immediately I didn’t want the 7 in my hand, as it creates too many opportunities for me to lose. If I lead it, dealer could play and 8 for 15, then I play X to 25 and likely give up a go point to lose, or a 31 if the opponent kept a 8-6. If the dealer is cautious, I send the count up to 27, and any low card played by the dealer allows them to retain the go.

From what I kept, I’ll go high and lead the K. This card is most averse to being paired, and even though a 15 for 2 could lead to disaster, leading a non X card will cause the dealer to hold their 5 until we are forced to play an X later, and it’s inevitable we keep an X with this hand.

I feel the best way to win with this hand is to play off, trying to score a go point early on and net an easy 15 on the second or third pegging sequence. Hopefully our opponent holds on to an X to make that happen. Ideally, we lead K, opponent plays a high card, we play Q to raise the count to high 20s or 30, then give the lead to our opponent. If they have an X card in their hand still, and lead it, we’ve made it to 121!
Eolus619 says: Just a fyi..Ras counsels the most likely held card in dealer’s hand is a K..end games may skew that ..but it is a data point worth remembering ..he counsels J is often the safe lead when the dealt cards and board position says do it this way ..dealer sends a “J “ FREQUENTLY to his/her crib
Eolus619 says: clarification…J is a safe Pone lead
Eolus619 says: and further …i kept your keep…so my comment above is not criticizing yours
kal79 says: Eolus…good to know, and definitely a good nugget to learn from Ras as I get acquainted with this site. That being said, maybe 5-J-Q-Q would be a safer keep as the pone for the reasons you mention above
Sgt Pegger
363 votes

Joined: July 2017
 
 
 
Sunday 6:48 AM
Only reason to keep the flush is for the "un-trackability" of the cards. leading the 7 is the only real chance here of us getting a win. Rob is absolutely correct in his explanation as to why. The dealer will read this as now being in a tight spot if they have anything around it. With luck they play a Q or K on your 7.
asevenson
2977 votes

Joined: August 2011
 
 
 
Sunday 8:10 AM
It will be tough to win this one. My thought was lead the 5 and pair J-Q-K response. With count at 25 I may get the go and win. Otherwise try to cut the spread and move on to next game. Happy Mother's Dat tp all the Mom's!
asevenson says: Day that is.
jmath714
1304 votes

Joined: January 2012
 
 
 
Sunday 8:21 AM
Rob basically has it covered today.
farleysma
339 votes

Joined: March 2022
 
 
 
Sunday 8:59 AM
Not keeping the 5 here, because the dealer getting a 15 would be the kiss of death. Sure, you can match their 5 for two but then with the count 20 they’re very likely to end up with a go to win the game. Lead the 7 and hope for the best.
mrob2199 says: Very sagacious analysis Farley
mrob2199 says: Very sagacious analysis Farley
zeke76 says: Makes sense. There is a reason my grandfather usually beat me in close end games.
zeke76 says: Makes sense. There is a reason my grandfather usually beat me in close end games.
fentesk
1296 votes

Joined: January 2021
 
 
 
Sunday 12:43 PM
I kept the Qs for the safety in numbers. I also decided I should keep at least 3, which meant I had to keep either the 5, or J-K. Four face cards largely takes any decision making out of my hands and it becomes a question of what dealer kept. That may still be the case with the 5 and faces, but I want that way. I didn't like the 7 hanging out in the hand, it just felt like it gave too many more chances to be scored on with no response, so off it goes.

Lead a Q and see if we can possibly get to the count.