May 14, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
41%
33%
9%
9%
3%
2%
0%
Total votes: 278
mrob2199
1463 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:04 AM
I’ll take a chance at bingo cuts of an A or 4 to possibly jump out to a nice lead
Jazzselke
2608 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:16 AM
This is referred to as the "Mick Michaelis" hand, named after the Hall of FMe player from Marinette, Wisconsin. Maybe A234 could be held in some end-game situations where you need to peg; otherwise 23 seems to be the ticket.
Gougie00
5762 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:56 AM
remedial cribbage.
zeke76 says: As I mention below, I definitely used to need remedial cribbage. I fear on bad days, I still do.
zeke76
1427 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:56 AM
Hey, I’ve learned something on this site over the years! I would have kept a three card run in my more naive days.
dec
6392 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:25 AM
Can't wait for the counters. Been doing this one successfully for years. dec
james500
3954 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:41 AM
2-3 is the standard discard from this sort of hand, but I seem to remember that if one of the X cards is a Jack, it works out slightly better to keep A234.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi James. I think you are correct, on *Offense*. Particularly if the X-X are J-Q, and 10-J will do in a pinch. But on Defense, the four cards of high pegging value may be more of a liability than an asset, as far as peg avoidance is concerned.
mfetchCT425
1424 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:09 AM
If the face cards weren’t 10-J or J-Q, would toss 2-3 in a heartbeat. I like the “touchers” everywhere in this situation. Any cut helps our hand and strong pegging cards could garner a nice run at the end of a pegging sequence.
Eolus619
1373 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:56 AM
On Page 57, Play Winning Cribbage, Colvert specifically discusses the four card run …A-2-3-4. As a general rule, he counsels against holding it ..He does show examples of holding A-2-3 with a lone 9 or F/T when needing 14 points. At 0*-0, I don’t know if this is the 5% of the time his counsel doesn’t apply. The powerful 2-3 is my choice today.
SallyAnn3
933 votes

Joined: March 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:15 AM
I was taght early on to get a 5 in the crib, and don't hold A234 (except maybe end game if warranted) becase the most it can turn into is 10.I remembered th "Mick" hand rom mentor Dan, but ended up holding for the run instead. I will stick with Mick or sure now!
SallyAnn3 says: taught*
SallyAnn3 says: and excuse all of my typos...need a new keyboard ugh!
kal79
44 votes

Joined: April 2024

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:41 AM
I thought I’d seen almost every cribbage hand there is to offer, but this site never fails to disappoint! I’m guessing this is the type of hand to separate good players from great. My mind immediately went to keeping the run of four, but looks like a lot of you disagree.

For those who threw the 2-3, what’s the benefit? Beyond the fact that experts recommend you throw it 😉
kal79 says: After checking Liam, looks like the crib upside outweighs the limitations to the hand here…starting to make more sense but would still appreciate input
Eolus619 says: Morning Kal79…Your discard should be board position dependent ..however, knowing the value of certain dealer discards is almost a must ..https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen6.aspo
Eolus619 says: and read Sgt Peggar below
kal79 says: Appreciate the feedback Eolus. The risks involved with the four card run are clear to me now as described by Sgt Pegger below. I’ll take a look at Ras’s tips!
Sgt Pegger
305 votes

Joined: July 2017

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:02 AM
A suited 2/3 to the crib is really hard to pass up for me.

Keeping the A,2,3,4 at max can only grab a 10-point hand and yes, I do agree that pegging can be fun with this hand.......IF, you are the pone. Since we are the dealer, I cannot understand how we have any "outs" or advantage over the pone with A,2,3,4. In fact it seems to me that we could get trapped with no way out. However, the A,4,X,X will usually give us some sort of control over pegging which we should have anyway over the pone and /or a way out if things get tricky. Besides, a 2/3 will usually work with almost anything the pone and the cut deliver to our crib.
SallyAnn3 says: Perfect explanation
arthurk
69 votes

Joined: January 2024

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:10 AM
Objectively wrong but I wanted to hold onto the 4 points plus the two run possibilities. Thinking on it the A4 are clearly better than the 23 for pegging.
MiketheExpert
1153 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:45 AM
I will look for any ol' excuse to put (2 3) in the crib, especially as first hand dealer. Well, in this case the 3 only leaves my hand at 4, but I am expecting great things in the crib. Defense to the lead.
MiketheExpert says: Now if I was in heavy offensive mode, definitely would consider discarding the (10 J) in favor of keeping the run.
Inushtuk1
1517 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:10 AM
The (2-3) for sure on Defense, even if they weren't suited. Looks like 6 or more in the Crib. Defense to the lead.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Well done & thanks for sharing your insight with others.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks Ras.
Coeurdelion
5624 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 10:30 AM
Mick Michaelis demonstrated that discarding 2-3 from A-2-3-4-X-X was preferable. From Michael Schell's Cribbage Forum - "Michaelis A-2-3-4: The ploy of discarding 2-3 to your crib from A-2-3-4-x-x in order to maximize your expected average. Named for Mick Michaelis". However, I believe that Ras demonstrated that if the X-x is 10-J or J-Q then it is better to keep the long run. The fact that the 2-3 is suited will only add about 0.03pt. crib flush potential and I think A-2-3-4 will peg better than A-4-10-J. So I'll throw the 10-J.
HalscribCLX
5347 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 10:30 AM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
A-4-10-J___6.74+(-2.00)+6.48=11.22____38.9____52.2
A-2-3-4____8.09+(-2.20)+4.43=10.32____38.7____50.4
2-3-10-J___7.13+(-2.15)+5.25=10.23____36.1____49.8

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
A-4-10-J_______25.3____22.4
A-2-3-4________27.9____24.6
2-3-10-J_______25.6____24.4

A-4-10-J is best for expected averages by 0.90pt. and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select the 2-3 to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.


If we were to play an Optimal strategy for the pegging:

_______________Net
Optimal___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-2-3-4____8.09+1.61+4.43=14.13
A-4-10-J___6.74+0.50+6.48=13.72

and if an Offense strategy:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total
A-2-3-4____8.09+3.80+4.43=16.32
A-4-10-J___6.74+2.50+6.48=15.72

I am, however, recommending Defense.
Ras2829 says: Hi HalscribCLX: Appreciate your analysis denoting what the better choices are if choosing optimal or offense. The above should clarify. There are many places on the board where dealer would choose to retain A-2-3-4 when able to discard 10-J or J-Q. Let choice of strategy determine.
Ras2829 says: eEvberything looks good above alhtough don't understand how dealer would gain +.50 pegs by holding A-4-10-J. If dealer plays four cards, pegs will never be less than +1.0?
MiketheExpert says: Thanks for the different analyses, confirms my thinking that (10 J) would the correct throw in many situations with choice of strategy. I suppose it can be the case that +.5 pegs would be the result if optimal, since then I assume it is subtracting pone pegs for this number. This would mean about 50% of the time (or at least something that averages close to it), we would end up without a gain on the pegging, while the other 50% of the time, we may only gain 1 point. (Think it would be impossible on any particular hand to gain +.5 point).
MiketheExpert says: Actually, the math seems in line, since on defense we have (-2.00) pegs given up on average, while we score 2.50 pegs on offense. So this works to +0.50 net gain.
Ras2829 says: Hi MiketheExpert: Sorry- you are absolutely correct as optimal strategy results in net pegs.
Ras2829
5186 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 12:34 PM
Choosing defense as dealer of first hand infers peg avoidance. The A-4-10-J allows some wiggle room on the pegging not present with A-2-3-4. Be flexible enough to retain A-2-3-4 as dealer if able to discard 10-J or J-Q when choosing strategies other than defense. Play off the lead and take pegs that appear safe. Likely to have a very good scoring crib with that 2-3 discard and the trey on the deck.
wasa
3048 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:31 PM
Ditto
Annabella
93 votes

Joined: January 2024

 
 
 
Tuesday 8:34 PM
Yay! I paid attention. I’m learning something. Thanks Ras!