May 15, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by Eolus619
40*-40  ?
55%
16%
10%
10%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 274
Eolus619What to do with the fives?..keep all three together?..send one five to the crib?..send two fives to the crib?
mrob2199
1463 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:09 AM
There is just too much potential value in pegging with the 3 fives as dealer that they can rarely be broken up( and this hand is not one of those cases) -im not thrilled with throwing A9 to my own crib but holding the 3 opens up our hand to a 2,4,or 7- as well as the 5 or picture
Sgt Pegger says: I'm riding the "Rob train" today....choo choo!
Inushtuk1
1517 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:32 AM
What Rob said. Missed the cut in my hand but 2 minimum in the Crib. Offense to the lead.
Inushtuk1 says: Quoting from Rob above, "...too much potential value in pegging with the 3 fives as dealer that they can rarely be broken up) and this hand is not one of those cases)". Well, I just had to try and find a couple. Like 5-5-5-6-6-7, where the correct keep, most places on the board would be 5-6-6-7(5-5). Or 5-5-5-6-6-6 where one might keep 5-6-6-6(5-5). But even that latter hand might be better to keep 5-5-5-6(6-6). As an exercise lets try to find a few more.
Eolus619 says: Morning Mike..thinking about this ..Rob’s observation combined with your “exercise” just might be better puzzle than my puzzle! here is my try at it ………A-4-5-5-5-6
Eolus619 says: A-5
Inushtuk1 says: Good one Bruce. For both Dealer and n/d
Eolus619 says: hey Mike…with your keep today..what is your reply to a trey or four Pone lead?
Inushtuk1 says: Hey Bruce. Good questions. i would pair the trey. I think i need to take a chance and grab a few pegs. On the 4 lead I will dump a 5. If he scores a 12-3), I recoup with my trey and (15-4). If he dumps a 6 (15-5), my trey is (18-4). Thanks for pointing out the possible pegging perils (a lot of alliteration), when keeping this hand. That's my story.
Inushtuk1 says: But check out wasa's post below.
Eolus619 says: Thx Mike...suspected it was perilous...but trading points from 0*-0 may be the place it does least harm..
MiketheExpert says: I don't disapprove of playing the trey on a 4 lead either. He is unlikely to have a 5, and we can play one for 14-4 if he has a deuce. We can also score 15-2 if he happens to pair our trey response. The thing I don't like it about it still leaves pone open to scoring 15-7 (run of 5) without a scoring response.
zeke76
1427 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Wednesday 3:51 AM
The upside of keeping the 3 seems worth the bad A9 throw and as folks said, you can’t break up the 5s here.
dec
6392 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:36 AM
Quite a few ways to get fourteen points here. Seventeen and twenty pointers make the big hit list also. dec
Eolus619 says: morning dec…3-5-5-5….2 = ? had to count twice to get it right
Gougie00
5762 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:41 AM
Ugh! A six.
Inushtuk1 says: Not so bad. It hit that poor Crib toss.
HfxKen
911 votes

Joined: February 2020

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:49 AM
I'm 3 points back from the minimum of where I want to be; so I'm keeping 8 + 1 points , with 16 X cards ( hopefully in the deck).

Nine + ace in my crib doesn't work well, esp with three dives in my hand.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ken. How do you figure 8 + 1 with (3-9) to the Crib? Not saying you're wrong. I'm just saying I don't see it. Btw, I spent most of my youth in Dartmouth, NS.
HaydenSr says: Dont want to speak out of turn, but i believe the +1 refers to the guaranteed one peg for dealer...
HfxKen says: HaydenSr, you are correct.
Inushtuk1 says: Gotcha.
horus93
1300 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:55 AM
Interesting puzzle today. I'll go another way and toss A3, a toss I have a bias for. Checking Liam, this way is statistically tied with tossing A9 (Liam claims it is 0.1 short). I don't think 3555 or 5559 will peg all that differently in the vast majority of cases. If you look at distributions, my way is slightly better for the right side of the bell curve but slightly worse for the middling scores. This scores min 18 30% of the time to A9's 27%, scores min 20 17% of the time to A9's 13%. But it scores min 15 49% to A9's 54%. Nothing wrong with tilting toward the far end especially when the difference isn't so vast in the middle and the score is 40*-40.

Still to me it looks like a virtual toss-up between these two. Just wanted to make the case for "the other way" because it seems just as good. A3 is not a horrible little toss, nearly on a par with 68 and significantly better than A2, while A9 is a straight balk to own crib, with a mean nearly a point lower than tossing TK to oppo's crib (in all fairness, the average tossing A3 is still like tossing 6Q to oppo, but that's a lot better than ~1 point worse than TK). As Liam makes clear this difference in the crib actually bridges the gap re: the potential for a huge cut holding 3555.
wasa
3048 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:12 AM
Looking like wrong choice for me. I wanted a 5 in my crib and really didn't want to toss the A-9
wasa says: Not sure why others are saying the 3-5-5-5 is a better pegging hand vs A-5-5-9. I'm hoping for 2 points by playing a 5 on a X lead, then 2 more points with my 3-card magic 11 (5-5-A). For low cards, the 3-5-5-5 has no "out" card. I assume people would play the "3" on a 4 lead, and then run through the 5s.
Inushtuk1 says: I guess we are shooting for X(10)-5(15-2)-5(20-2)-5(25-6)GO-5(30-13). Pie in the sky perhaps.
Eolus619 says: wasa..food for thought for sure..have to consider the value of that out card..as you said,3-5-5-5 seems bunched and vulnerable to trading pegging points in runs
wasa says: HAL is showing that A-5-5-9 is better for "our pegs" vs the other choices. After reading HAL (and others) I stand by my choice and would not change my mind! :-)
Eolus619 says: wasa..gave you credit in reply to Ras at the bottom..look at your cleverness AND not even a flush involved!!!!!!!!!
james500
3954 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:24 AM
A-3 is the most frequent discard common to both Dealer and Pone. Is this significant, or just a piece of trivia? (something must hold this title, no matter its position on the two lists of 91).

I'll try 6+2 points with A-5-5-9 (3-5) instead. One of each suit for aesthetic reasons, since no crib flush or fake hand flush are possible.
Jazzselke
2608 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 5:51 AM
No way would I split up the 5s, and more potential with the 3 as noted.
Eolus619 says: Dan…2600❗️👏…may also mean you are getting older
Inushtuk1 says: Maybe older; but definitely wiser.
mfetchCT425
1424 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 7:58 AM
Agree with above that held it this way. Great pegging potential and a chance to get do n the board with the right cut. Nice puzzle Bruce.
mfetchCT425 says: “do n” should say “down”.
Eolus619 says: Thanks Mike..intertesting input today on pegging potential by multiple commenters
RubyTuesday
936 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Wednesday 9:59 AM
I went the same way as most of you today, A 9 to my crib even though it’s unlikely to do anything particularly stunning there.
kal79
44 votes

Joined: April 2024

 
 
 
Wednesday 11:00 AM
As many of you have already stated, there’s too much upside keeping the 5s together today. I like the 3 as the fourth card we keep, as it opens the door for multiple cuts beyond Xs that lead to 14 in the hand. Yes, it sucks to throw A-9 to our crib, but again, there’s too much potential to break up.

If the pone leads X, 15 is an easy decision. If not, I may still play a 5 just to start getting them out of my hand. I’d hate to be left with 5s only and lose possession of the go
Coeurdelion
5624 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Wednesday 11:33 AM
I'll look at 3-5-5-5 (A-9), A-5-5-9 (3-5) and 5-5-5-9 (A-3):

3-5-5-5: 8pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.40) = 11½pts

A-5-5-9: 6pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 12pts

5-5-5-9: 8pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.52) = 12¼pts

Potential:

3-5-5-5: Improves with 2222, 333, 4444, 5, 7777 + 16xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 14/17/20pts with 2222, 4444, 5, 7777 + 16xXs = 29 cuts.

A-5-5-9: Improves with AAA, 4444, 5, 6666, 999 + 16xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12/14pts with AAA, 5, 999 + 16xXs = 23 cuts.

5-5-5-9: Improves with AAA, 5, 6666, 999 + 16xXs = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 14/20pts with AAA, 5 + 16xXs = 20 cuts.

Position:

We're both 4pts short of 2nd street positional hole but as dealer we have the advantage. We only need 30pts over two deals to reach 3rd street positional hole; 4pts above the average. So I'll play Offense but with caution.

Pegging:

A-5-5-9 has one low card, two 5s and a high card plus a 3-card magic eleven so I think it should peg best.

Summary:

5-5-5-9 is best for starting value but only by ¼pt over A-5-5-9 and ¾pt over 3-5-5-5. 3-5-5-5 has most cut for improvement and 29 cuts for 14-20pts so I think it should more than make up the ¾pt. So I'll throw the A-9.
HalscribCLX
5347 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 11:33 AM
At 40*-40 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging (cautious offense)) the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Net
Optimal___Hand__Pegs_Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
3-5-5-5____12.30+0.52+3.09=15.92____41.5____42.2
A-5-5-9_____8.70+1.24+5.91=15.85____38.9____40.3
5-5-5-9____11.04+0.48+4.24=15.76____40.8____42.1

Optimal_______L6 %____L7 %
3-5-5-5________33.0____39.5
A-5-5-9________33.0____41.2
5-5-5-9________32.0____39.4

3-5-5-5 is best for expected averages by 0.07pt. over A-5-5-9 and 0.16pt. over 5-5-5-9. It is also slightly best for Win %s and although 5-5-5-9 is slightly lowest for Loss %s I'll still select A-9 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Offense to the lead.
Ras2829
5186 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Wednesday 12:32 PM
At hole 40, it is clear offense for dealer as is 3 points short of 2nd street CPZ (43-47) and n/d is shoulder-to shoulder. Will take any pegs offered after the cut does nothing for hand and might lead to six in crib (two points known). Offense to the lead, pair a trey, pair a five, or score 15-2 on a x-pointer.
Ras2829 says: Am amazed that A-5-5-9 is only .07 hundredths less than 3-5-5-5 in combined value. See HalscribCLX analysis above.
Eolus619 says: Ras..I am even more amazed when Rob touted the pegging potential of 3-5-5-5 & Hal [ give wasa credit too!} says A-5-5-9 has more than twice the pegging value of 3-5-5-5.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi guys. Note this is *Net* Pegs; *not* Dealer's Offensive Pegs. That might show a closer result.
MiketheExpert says: This is probably due to the danger of (3 5 5 5) given some pone leads, also it may have the potential to perform well. I would actually consider them (3 5 5 5) and (A 5 5 9) to be very close options at this score. I could use a potential "max" score and cut, but neither do I want to get in a pegging war, and (3 5) in the crib rather than the unwanted throw of (A 9) certainly doesn't make this choice a mistake in my opinion.
Inushtuk1 says: It looks like 3-5-5-5((A-9) 0n offense for me, and A-5-5-99(3-5) on Defense.
Andy (muesli64)
2228 votes

Joined: August 2009

 
 
 
Wednesday 1:52 PM
Going for max.
RGM
920 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Wednesday 4:39 PM