June 7, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
44*-47  ?
53%
41%
4%
Total votes: 287
Samgash
413 votes

Joined: November 2016

 
 
 
Friday 3:14 AM
Close call certainly but like 23 in the crib here. Going to look for opportunities to peg here.
glmccuskey
4153 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Friday 3:49 AM
See no reason not to throw 2-3. Offense in the pegging.
james500
3980 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Friday 3:56 AM
2-3 tends to do pretty well.
kal79
74 votes

Joined: April 2024

 
 
 
Friday 3:58 AM
Thought about 7-7 but 2-3 is just so good in the crib. Cant pass it up. Not willing to pair a 9 or 10 lead, but will play 15-2 if I can. I’ll play the 9 on a small card lead.
kal79 says: To further address my choice yesterday to lead 6 from 6-7-7-8 as pone, I’ve been burned a handful of times recently where as pone, the sequence goes 7(7)-8(15-2)-6(21-3)-9(30-4) and I as pone say “GO.” Dealer nets 3 on me and retains control of the go. They net 5 if they happen to have the A, which has also happened. I get that this is a specific scenario not guaranteed to happen, but situations like these scare me as pone when playing into a 6-7-8-9 run.
kal79 says: Ras and Gougie…I appreciate your feedback on my comment yesterday and like to read your daily comments as well…IF you had 6-7-7-8 as pone, lead 7, and dealer plays 8(15-2), what do you play next? 21-3? 22? 23-2? We’ve opened up a very volatile pegging sequence here. What would you guys play next to give us the best chance to turn a profit? This is one I tend to avoid as stated above, but if there’s a better way to go about it I’d like to know!
Ras2829 says: Hi kal79: If am choosing offense am only concerned with pegs scored by self. Four pegs for n/d when choosing offense are of greater value than six scored by dealer in most cases. If you're concerned about opponent gaining pegs, lead the 7 and there are 2 seven and 3 8s that could score, a total of five cards. If you lead the 6, there are 3 6's and 4 9's that might score, a total of 7 cards. You can plan on giving up pegs if leading from middle cards and dealer is holding the same. Just play the numbers as pointed out above. The laws of probability will favor leading from the pair.
kal79 says: Thanks Ras! I suppose this ties into the idea to play offense as n/d throughout to take away dealer advantage. One might “lose” the pegging battle getting out scored 4-6, but by advancing the score they are eating in to the dealer’s intrinsic advantage.
dec
6435 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Friday 4:46 AM
2-3 is a possible big hit. Peg on. dec
horus93
1326 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Friday 4:58 AM
23 is the way; seems like the only crib toss that yields a great crib with any consistency besides maybe 55. I get it that by means there are other tosses that are nearly as good, but certainly "gut"/experience really likes 23. Checking Liam, tossing 77 is only supposed to be 0.2 south, and perhaps 239T is a better pegger (though I'm not sure about that since this has an opening for the heavy-hitting midcard exchange). Probably in the big chart in the sky it's basically a toss-up between those two, and the bot may "shock" us by going with 77 especially if it figures the mean crib values of 23 vs 77 slightly differently (and everyone does, because crib means have a margin of error). Positionally, same situation as yesterday, I'd play maximum offense.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi horus93. "2-3-9-10 has an opening for the heavy-hitting midcard exchange." Sorry, but I'm not following your meaning.
horus93 says: "This" refers to 779t, contrasted with 239t (which does have an 11, an ace trap, a jack trap, so no dud in its own right)
Inushtuk1 says: Yes the Jack trap. I had f missed that one. This makes me like my off the wall choice even more.
mrob2199
1482 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Friday 5:16 AM
2-3 to the crib could salvage a bad hand here
Eolus619 says: Rob..your June CW column ..end game pegging scenarios…very educational ..thanks
Sgt Pegger
332 votes

Joined: July 2017

 
 
 
Friday 5:37 AM
Call me "cattle" cause I'm a runnin with the herd today! lol
Inushtuk1
1544 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Friday 6:11 AM
"When in doubt toss (2-3)." Wait a minute. Now you've lost your Magic Eleven. We only dealt ourselves two cards of high pegging value; and we stowed them in the Crib. All that, plus it's a Ras puzzle, and I'll take my chances this way. If I'm wrong, I don't think it's by very much.It could be on Offense to include the pegging this way. Then again, 7-7-9-10 may not be very good for defense either.
Ras2829 says: Like your thinking - 2-3-9-10 actually has a bigger margin if playing defense stategy.
Inushtuk1 says: Very intteresting Ras. No doubt because of, and I quote guideontheside below, "...not getting trapped."
wasa
3073 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Friday 6:20 AM
I agree with Inushtuk's first statement- when in doubt, feed the crib. In this case, the 2-3 is just so powerful in my crib that, to me, overshadows a 7-7 or a 9-T toss (not that I actually considered a 9-T toss, but our hand in reality consists of three combo cards: 2-3, 7-7, 9-T, and one of these combos is going in my crib.
Assman
41 votes

Joined: May 2024

 
 
 
Friday 6:40 AM
Great puzzle and great comments! Thank you Ras! It was either the 7-7 or the 2-3 for me. I can see the logic in putting the favorable 2-3 into the crib. Probably the better play. But I can peg better with the small cards and the magic 11 combo.
Ras2829 says: Hi Assman: Thanks for the kind words. Like your thinking on this puzzle.
MiketheExpert
1180 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Friday 6:53 AM
I like to toss (2 3) given two reasonably close alternatives in most places on the board. Here is no exception. I'll prioritize the hand and crib strength combined to pegging strength other things being equal, even using an offense strategy for all areas.
MiketheExpert says: Despite the numbers which seem to bear out the best numbers for the (7 7) crib throw using all strategies according to HAL, hand + crib strength overall is close to equal, while I don't perceive the benefit on offensive pegging as much (which is also +0.24 according to HAL's numbers). However I feel the (2 3 9 10) performs significantly better on defense, and if I felt defense to be a priority, I would throw (7 7) in preference to this hand that is left after the (2 3) crib toss.
Jason19
370 votes

Joined: March 2023

 
 
 
Friday 9:07 AM
23 ofeten yields 8 - 10. Magic 11 would yield 2. I'd rather salt the crib than try to peg a couple more.
guideontheside
374 votes

Joined: July 2020

 
 
 
Friday 10:30 AM
I salted the crib a different way - it would take 2 face cards to make a 4 pt crib, vs. a random middle card to make it 6 (in this case, perhaps more?). That plus the pegging possibilities and not getting trapped.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi guideonthe side. In my first play out our way, i snagged 12 points in my Crib. I had 7 in my Crib when I went with the (2-3). But that's only one play out each way.
Coeurdelion
5646 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Friday 12:35 PM
I think it's between 7-7-9-10 (2-3) and 2-3-9-10 (7-7):

7-7-9-10: 2pts + 6¾pts (Schell: 7.00) = 8¾pts

2-3-9-10: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 7¾pts

Potential:

7-7-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 5555, 6666, 77, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 5/6/14pts with 77, 8888, JJJJ = 10 cuts.

2-3-9-10: Improves with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 44 cuts = 44/46 = 94.7% up to 5/6/7/8pts with AAAA, 222, 333, 4444, 8888, 101010, JJJJ = 25 cuts.

Position:

We're at 2nd street positional hole while Pone is 13pts short of where they'd like to be so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 2-3-9-10nwill peg best with two low cards and two middle/high cards as they should allow us to play off easily. Probably better to play one of the low cards early in order not to be caught with them together at the end of pegging.

Summary:

7-7-9-10 is better for starting value by 1pt but 2-3-9-10 has many more cuts for improvement and 25 cuts for 5-8pts compared to 10 cuts for 5-14pts. Also, I believe, 2-3-9-10 will peg better. Therefore, although 7-7-9-10 has by far the better maximum with 4 cuts (8888) I'll throw the pair of 7s.
HalscribCLX
5371 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Friday 12:35 PM
At 44*-47 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense____Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W5 %____W6 %
2-3-9-10____5.30+2.89+5.95=14.14____11.7____34.8
7-7-9-10____4.26+2.65+6.96=13.87____11.5____34.3

Offense________L5 %____L6 %
2-3-9-10________11.6____34.7
7-7-9-10________10.8____33.9

2-3-9-10 is better for expected averages by 0.27pt. and is very slightly better for Win %s. Although 7-7-9-10 is slightly lower for Loss %s I'll still select 7-7 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play offense to the lead.
zeke76
1453 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Friday 12:42 PM
Went this way. I normally toss 23, but I didn’t like what that left me in my hand. Commenting less and late this week while traveling in Portugal. Wine, sardines, and sun, but less cribbage.

RubyTuesday
957 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Friday 2:49 PM
My first reaction was to throw 7 7 but then I looked again and threw 2 3. Both Halscrib and Coeurdelion say I was wrong!
Ras2829
5214 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Friday 2:55 PM
Looking at position of pegs, the six cards dealt, it's offense to include the pegging at hole 44. That means 2-3-9-10 because of much greater hand value and slightly great pegging potential. Those two factors more than cover the greater crib value potential with 2-3 discard. And the 6 on the deck could bode well for the crib as n/d might not have much use for an 8 in the hand. Expect to find it in the crib as in 8-K or 8-Q. Might even toss 6-8, cards either side of the 7-7. That often happens when dealer holds pairs. If dealer has pair of Jacks on the table, 10-Q or Q-K not likely to work in n/d hand; so those are discarded. If choosing a defense strategy to include the pegging, 2-3-9-10 does even better because of that "magic 11" (2/9) which often closes the count at 31-2 and a great variety of cards which allows more chances to avoid pegs. Appreciate all the quality comments of this day.
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks for the puzzle Ras. What if the hand was 2-3-7-7-9-any other X-Card? Now does the (2-3) come to the fore on any strategy?
Inushtuk1 says: I can see on defense definitely 2-3-9-J, Q, or K being even better than 2-3-9-10. Don't know about offense.
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Actually 2-3-9-X with 7-7 discard is better in combined value because of the greater potential hand value and the edge in pegs. Those two factors outweigh the value of 2-3 to the crib even if the X-pointer is Queen or King. That's true in offense or defense. As you surmise the presence of Q/K if choosing defense strategy provides a very safe escape card and decreases peg total of opponent. Ran a query as I usually do just to confirm my assessment, and the Prof agrees with my comments above. In no case does, the Cribbage Prof, defense or offense, give the 2-3-9-X with 7-7 discard less than a .2 advantage in combined value.