June 8, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
0*-0  ?
39%
39%
32%
32%
26%
26%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 243
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4165 votes)

Saturday 3:11 AM
JQ is better than J7, but is it two points better?
Eolus619 says: James500..in your camp today…J/Q not on Ras’s “approved” two point sacrifice list..deep respect for Rob’s cribbage acume…so we will see what Ras says later about ours verse the sacrifice path https://vashoncribbage.weebly.com/uploads/5/6/7/4/56741021/chart_11.pdf
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4333 votes)

Saturday 3:12 AM
I like the 2-3-3 together. Not sure throwing J-Q is worth the sacrifice of two points.
zeke76

Joined: August 2018 (1531 votes)

Saturday 3:13 AM
Ditto on logic
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6630 votes)

Saturday 3:56 AM
A three cut would be seven. I probably would be more sure if it was a pair of tens here. Lets see how close it is. dec
dec says: 3-3-3-2-7 six fifteen fifteen fifteen = twelve. Back to the coffee duh.
mrob2199

Joined: February 2009 (1555 votes)

Saturday 4:10 AM
Pretty close call here but I’ll sacrifice the 2 points for the better crib throw and pegging flexibility
horus93

Joined: December 2017 (1330 votes)

Saturday 5:00 AM
Definitely see the case for JQ, but I'll do it the "boring" way. I also simply have bias against JQ. The big advantage with 2337 as I see it is the lower ranks make it more likely that you parley your treys or trap an ace. Per Liam, 2337 is 0.3 south. Will that offensive upside make up the difference? It's probably near a tie, but I still narrowly favor this way as I don't think 2337 will peg all THAT much better than this. Some people think starting dealer should default to maximum offense, but this is not true.
horus93 says: Max defense, I meant. Not being a bot, I don't have to commit myself to one of 3 play-styles on every hand, and can weigh the value of any given pegging play on a case by case basis.
horus93 says: Oh yeah and this has a three card sixteen, too
horus93 says: 8-q-7 and then 31 for 4, many such cases
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (5982 votes)

Saturday 5:08 AM
I wonder if tossing the JQ is the right answer? I tossed suited 7-J as a natural reaction. 233Q has more cards that can marry in to a 12, like an Ace or 4. That's my story officer, and I am sticking to it.
fentesk

Joined: January 2021 (1443 votes)

Saturday 5:41 AM
Not a fan of J-7 in crib, and I like hands like 2-3-3-7 that improve with every cut, but I'll keep an X in hand for a bit more of an out in defensive pegging.
kal79

Joined: April 2024 (239 votes)

Saturday 5:55 AM
I wanted to toss J-Q, but didn’t feel it was worth the two point sacrifice. After seeing the cut, that throw might give us a higher crib than 7-J will BUT we now have 10 in the hand and scored heels for 2!

A big contributor for me was that there’s not a lot of wiggle room with 2-3-3-7 pegging and I’d like to lean conservative, given we are dealer to start the game. The Q gives us an escape route if things start to get dicey with small cards. I’m only going to go after pegs if I know I have an out (I’ll pair a 3 because I have a response for a n/d pair royale with the 3.)

We know we have two in the crib now, but I can’t say I’m too optimistic about our crib’s chances at this point. However, ending this deal around hole 16 won’t be bad at all.
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (242 votes)

Saturday 6:52 AM
I like it this way. I was definitely gonna throw the 7 and I know throwing the J leads to more points on average, but I’m not sure why because I wouldn’t expect my opponent to dump Js.
horus93 says: It's more likely to form a run, and this outweighs the fact that it's less likely to form s pair. That said, correct for nob and you're talking a tenth or two, if not a fraction of a tenth, in mean crib value, so it's pretty minor when comparing say 8j to 8q or k.
Assman says: Thank you, Horus. I got you…I was only thinking about pairs and forgot about the run. And you’re right of course that the J statistically has one more run possibility than a Q and also 10, Q, and K are often dumped into opponents cribs.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2746 votes)

Saturday 7:41 AM
I usually do not give up points, but 2337 does improve on any cut, so in this case I will throw the JQ.
Ras2829 says: Hi Jazzselke: Think you nailed it. This would not work this way if X-pointers had been 10-Q or Q-K. The JQ gives the best return followed by the 10-J. Will have to do a little pencil work as J-J might also work. Always appreciate your presence and willingness to share in a concise manner. Best to you as always.
JCMO

Joined: June 2023 (120 votes)

Saturday 7:57 AM
If the 2 of hearts were a 2 of diamonds, we would have a diamond flush to consider. How should we discard then?
Eolus619 says: JCMO..you are back 👏👏…see you near the top many times on cardsjd..well done
Eolus619 says: and Liam says no to keeping the flush..close though https://cliambrown.com/cribbage/?data=2D3D3S7DJDQSY
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (511 votes)

Saturday 8:30 AM
Jack & Jill went into the crib to fetch us some points. lol
Roookii

Joined: December 2022 (336 votes)

Saturday 8:53 AM
Why have so many thrown the Jack? Wouldn't it be better to throw the Queen? The Jack gives you the opportunity for Nobs.
Roookii says: Never mind...our crib. I get confused.
Ras2829 says: HI Rookii: In this game everybody starts as a rookii. Those who live a long life, play with high-ranking players regularly, read volumes on crib strategy, play electronically with some of finest of the cribbage tutorials have a chance to move up a notch or two. The game has so many nuances and complexities, that one lifetime is not enough to become an expert. If you want to reach that level, you'll need to be reincarnated at a young age with a high level of pre-determined general mathematics ability. If you should return in middle-age or later, need a calculator to balance your checkbook, there's no hope even the second time around. Nice to see a new voice in the choir. Sing on!!!
Roookii says: Thank you. I'm an old, lazy cat who likes to play a few rounds with friends every so often. I'm not that bad for having started playing last year (think it was) and I've surprised a few seasoned players, but I'll never reach any higher level. My memory is just not sharp as it once was and I forget what I learned. I simply enjoy playing, win or lose.
MiketheExpert

Joined: April 2021 (1266 votes)

Saturday 11:37 AM
(J Q) doesn't appeal to me enough to start with 2 points less. Let's play the old-fashioned way here. Defense to the lead (but will pair a 3 lead here for sure.)
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5765 votes)

Saturday 1:19 PM
I think it's between 2-3-3-7 (J-Q) and 2-3-3-Q (7-J):

2-3-3-7: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.81) = 8¾pts

2-3-3-Q: 6pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.53) = 9½pts

Potential:

2-3-3-7: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 6666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777 + 14xXs = 34 cuts.

2-3-3-Q: Improves with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, 5555, 777, 9999 + 14xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/12pts with AAAA, 222, 33, 4444 + 14xXs = 27 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is at 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg well playing Defense but perhaps 2-3-3-7 slightly better.

Summary:

2-3-3-Q is better for starting value by ¾pt but 2-3-3-7 has guaranteed improvement and 34 cuts for 8-12pts while 2-3-3-Q has fewer cuts for improvement and 27 cuts for 10/12pts. It does have 16 cuts for 12pts (AAAA, 222, 33, 4444, QQQ) so I don't think it's clear which will be better. However, with the slightly better pegging I think 2-3-3-7 will make up the ¾pt so I'll throw the J-Q.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5536 votes)

Saturday 1:19 PM
At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____W9 %____W10 %
2-3-3-Q____9.52+(-2.20)+3.47=10.79____37.9____50.5
2-3-3-J____9.74+(-2.24)+3.17=10.67____38.3____50.8
2-3-3-7____8.00+(-2.22)+4.77=10.55____37.3____48.4

Defense_______L9 %____L10 %
2-3-3-Q________26.9____24.2
2-3-3-J________27.1____24.0
2-3-3-7________29.4____26.6

2-3-3-Q is best for expected averages by 0.12pt. over 2-3-3-J and 0.24pt. over 2-3-3-7. However 2-3-3-J is very slightly best for Win %s and even for Loss %s. Even so, as it is the very start of the game, I'll decide based on the expected averages and select the suited 7-J to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5384 votes)

Saturday 2:51 PM
Sorry chose the wrong position for this hand to work in the way I depict here. It flip-flops if choosing an offense strategy. So those who have retained 2-3-3-X with 7-J discard had it all as a defense strategy ought to be the choice as game's first dealer. Thanks for the divergence of opinion - almost a 50/50 split. Should have known the cribbot would get it right! I'll do better the next time around.
Ras2829 says: Maybe Coeurdelion's response is best: "...so I don't think it's clear which will be better." And that sees true of many of the puzzles submitted here. The choices made are not clearly right/wrong. Could it be?
Ras2829 says: typo above - "sees" should be "seems".
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. So on Offense with 2-3-3-J-Q, or 2-3-3-10-J the X-Cards go in the crib. What about J-J?
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Thought the J-J would do even better than J-Q or 10-J if choosing offense strategy as it starts with two points in the crib. Combined values favor holding 2-3-3-7 discard of J-J by nearly 1/2 point. Cribbage Prof agrees.
guideontheside

Joined: July 2020 (533 votes)

Saturday 6:28 PM
Hey - I didn't get an email today - did I accidentally unsubscribe?
Ras2829 says: Do you prefer E-mail over a visit to this site? Easy access to Hand of the Day is assured.