June 9, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by scottcrib
52*-45  ?
66%
20%
12%
0%
0%
Total votes: 251
scottcribGrass roots hand from last night.
dec
6435 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:17 AM
Yes I saw the flush and the pair of nines. Go standard here. dec
Ras2829
5215 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 3:30 AM
The flush has a much superior potential hand value. The 9-Q though, does not even average 3.0 to own crib. In this case since dealer holding cards of benefit to 9-Q (adjacent or 15-2), that miserable combination barely breaks 2.8. Given that discarding 5-Q 6.593 is the way to go. Holding the double run or the flush, even so, are still very close in combined value with double run having a very slight edge. At hole 52, after seeing the starter card (no apparent help to hand or 5-Q discard), dealer ought to choose defense as that guaranteed peg, 8 points in hand, and two known in crib will put dealer at hole 63. Looks like can improve dealer advantage in this game if avoiding risk in the pegging. Take pegs though avoid giving up six on a triple. With 9-9-10-J, not much to be expected in pegging. Play a 9 on leads of 5/6. If n/d leads a five, likely has X-pointers to go with it. By retaining 10-J, dealer gives up 2 on the 15-2 believing that the 10-J will likely score a run in the later pegging sequence.
Eolus619 says: Morning Ras…appreciate the pegging advice…what would be your reply to a trey or four lead ?
Ras2829 says: Hi Eolus619: Would play the 9C on either 3/4 lead as more likely that n/d would have deuce with a trey or an Ace with four spot. Might as well minimize the chances of those frequent 15-2's.
Eolus619 says: thx Ras❗️
Ras2829 says: You know those discards - all 91 of them have lower values to own crib than when tossed to opponent. The lowly 9-Q to own crib without concern of negative delta averages 2.994. To opponent crib 9-Q averages 4.12. The 5-Q as discarded here averages 6.593 when tossed to self and 7.102 on the other side of the board. When looking at the 91 discard combinations, only 2/91 score less than 4 points on the other side of the board. When tossed to own crib 43 of 91 score less than 4.0.
Ras2829 says: If somebody wants to do the hard work required, you can review HalscribCLX analyses over the past few years and note the difference in value of same discards to own/opponent crib. The discards will be of lower value to own crib and higher on the other side of the board. Be wary of discard tables that show a single value for each of the 91. That's not how it works in this wonderfully complex game, live or electronic.
james500
3980 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Sunday 4:01 AM
Nice puzzle Scott.
zeke76
1453 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Sunday 4:18 AM
Would there be any thought on the two 9s to the crib? I obviously didn’t go that way.
mrob2199
1482 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Sunday 4:37 AM
Why don’t I deal more of these hands to myself!!!!!! I’m with the crowd today-the 8 point double run with the Q5 to our crib
glmccuskey
4153 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Sunday 4:40 AM
Nice hand at hole 52.
Eolus619
1400 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 4:53 AM
Thx for the puzzle Scott…in Rob I trust..” don’t over think this”
Starting with a keep worth eight points AND being able to send a 5/F to the crib is rarely a bad idea ..at least for me.
Jason19 says: Agree.
Gougie00
5790 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 5:40 AM
No need for a brain cramp.
Annabella says: You are so funny!
MiketheExpert
1180 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Sunday 6:27 AM
The flush will be a poor sister today towards the other choices of the double run or the 9-pt hand keep with the pair throw, due to the weakness of the (9 Q) crib throw. The double-run seems to have the most eye candy, along with the strongest crib throw in (5 Q), and no surprise this is the majority choice. But I think (9 9) might have a relatively increased value (still lower than that of 5 Q), but since in order to work it will likely need help from a 5 or X-card, why not go for the glory and keep those cards in my hand, starting with the max 9-pts. The (9 9) crib toss could find a friend in the 7 cut, as it does nothing for my hand.
MiketheExpert says: Of course, knowing the flush does start with 11 here, I shouldn't say that 9 is max - it is just 1 more point than the double-run. In fact all 3 choices may be somewhat close in combined value, but the (9 Q) throw still may put it in 3rd place. Interesting to see HAL's take on it. Could the tiebreaker be in the defensive pegging value for each of these hands?
kal79
74 votes

Joined: April 2024

 
 
 
Sunday 6:37 AM
Not going to overthink this one, doesn’t get much better than 5-Q to my crib AND a double run in my hand! All we need to do is choke down the high card double run pegging and we are set.

Per Ras’s comment, I’ll play a 9 on a low card lead and play off a run on the first sequence. I’ll look to nab a couple pegs later on. Bummer cut today.
RubyTuesday
957 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Sunday 8:15 AM
Lots of good choices possible today - 5 with run of court cards, double run or the flush. I threw 5 Q and kept the double run because I liked both the hand and crib.
Assman
41 votes

Joined: May 2024

 
 
 
Sunday 8:54 AM
I’m going against the popular choice today. I’m not likely to play a flush unless it’s clearly the best option. Here I get 9 with my 5-10-J-Q with significant improvement with any X (which didn’t happen as usual). Plus 2 more waiting in my crib. But that pair is not quite as likely to improve as compared to 5-Q in the kitty. And I suppose that’s why the most popular choice was throwing the 5-Q.

Another fun and educational puzzle.
Eolus619 says: hello..the random cut card proves us all right ot wrong !…. however the more you can remember about the dealer discards in these groups..the more likely your game will improve https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen6.aspi
Inushtuk1
1544 votes

Joined: July 2016

 
 
 
Sunday 9:12 AM
Unless we can change that Qd to a Qc; the flush just doesn't work for me. Defense to the lead.
Sgt Pegger
332 votes

Joined: July 2017

 
 
 
Sunday 11:23 AM
I decided to go this way since we start with 12 combined and have potential to go much higher with a good cut. The pair of 9's to the crib might just meet up with the pones K/9 toss? After seeing the cut card, I have to wonder if the pone may have dropped that 4/8 in the crib.
HaydenSr
1518 votes

Joined: April 2020

 
 
 
Sunday 12:05 PM
going with the herd today
Coeurdelion
5646 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Sunday 2:06 PM
Flush or double-run?:

5-9C-10-J: 11pts + 3pts (Schell: 2.99) = 14pts

9-9-10-J: 8pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 14½pts

Potential:

5-9C-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 8888, 99, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 14/16/17pts with 555, 99, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 14 cuts. Plus 9 club cuts for 1pt extra for the flush and 1pt for his nob = 2x9/46 = 0.39pt.

9-9-10-J: Improves with 555, 6666, 8888, 99, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 12/15/16pts with 555, 6666, 99, 101010, JJJ = 15 cuts. Plus 9 club cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Position:

We need 18pts to reach 3rd street positional hole first as Pone so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 5-9C-10-J will peg slightly better.

Summary:

9-9-10-J is better for starting value by ½pt but 5-9C-10-J is better for a club cut by 0.19pt. and it has more cuts for improvement and 14 cuts for 14-17pts compared to 15 cuts for 12-16pts with 9-9-10-J. I think it will also peg slightly better so I'll throw the suited 9-Q.
HalscribCLX
5371 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Sunday 2:06 PM
At 528-45 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are;

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
9-9-10-J___10.46+(-2.13)+6.42=19.45____53.9____80.9
5-9C-10-J__13.72+(-2.02)+2,81=19.31____53.3____80.3
5-10-J-Q___11.39+(-2.15)+5.00=18.89____51.6____78.5

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
9-9-10-J_______7.4____ 4.7
5-9C-10-J______8.2_____5.2
5-10-J-Q_______8.2_____5.8

9-9-10-J is best for expected averages by 0.14pt. and is slightly best for Win %s and slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-Q to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.