Sunday 3:17 AM

Yes I saw the flush and the pair of nines. Go standard here. dec

   

Sunday 3:30 AM

The flush has a much superior potential hand value. The 9-Q though, does not even average 3.0 to own crib. In this case since dealer holding cards of benefit to 9-Q (adjacent or 15-2), that miserable combination barely breaks 2.8. Given that discarding 5-Q 6.593 is the way to go. Holding the double run or the flush, even so, are still very close in combined value with double run having a very slight edge. At hole 52, after seeing the starter card (no apparent help to hand or 5-Q discard), dealer ought to choose defense as that guaranteed peg, 8 points in hand, and two known in crib will put dealer at hole 63. Looks like can improve dealer advantage in this game if avoiding risk in the pegging. Take pegs though avoid giving up six on a triple. With 9-9-10-J, not much to be expected in pegging. Play a 9 on leads of 5/6. If n/d leads a five, likely has X-pointers to go with it. By retaining 10-J, dealer gives up 2 on the 15-2 believing that the 10-J will likely score a run in the later pegging sequence.

   

Sunday 4:01 AM

Nice puzzle Scott.

   

Sunday 4:18 AM

Would there be any thought on the two 9s to the crib? I obviously didn’t go that way.

   

Sunday 4:37 AM

Why don’t I deal more of these hands to myself!!!!!! I’m with the crowd today-the 8 point double run with the Q5 to our crib

   

Sunday 4:40 AM

Nice hand at hole 52.

   

Sunday 4:53 AM

Thx for the puzzle Scott…in Rob I trust..” don’t over think this”
Starting with a keep worth eight points AND being able to send a 5/F to the crib is rarely a bad idea ..at least for me.

   

Sunday 5:40 AM

No need for a brain cramp.

   

Sunday 6:27 AM

The flush will be a poor sister today towards the other choices of the double run or the 9-pt hand keep with the pair throw, due to the weakness of the (9 Q) crib throw. The double-run seems to have the most eye candy, along with the strongest crib throw in (5 Q), and no surprise this is the majority choice. But I think (9 9) might have a relatively increased value (still lower than that of 5 Q), but since in order to work it will likely need help from a 5 or X-card, why not go for the glory and keep those cards in my hand, starting with the max 9-pts. The (9 9) crib toss could find a friend in the 7 cut, as it does nothing for my hand.

   

Sunday 6:37 AM

Not going to overthink this one, doesn’t get much better than 5-Q to my crib AND a double run in my hand! All we need to do is choke down the high card double run pegging and we are set.

Per Ras’s comment, I’ll play a 9 on a low card lead and play off a run on the first sequence. I’ll look to nab a couple pegs later on. Bummer cut today.

   

Sunday 8:15 AM

Lots of good choices possible today - 5 with run of court cards, double run or the flush. I threw 5 Q and kept the double run because I liked both the hand and crib.

   

Sunday 8:54 AM

I’m going against the popular choice today. I’m not likely to play a flush unless it’s clearly the best option. Here I get 9 with my 5-10-J-Q with significant improvement with any X (which didn’t happen as usual). Plus 2 more waiting in my crib. But that pair is not quite as likely to improve as compared to 5-Q in the kitty. And I suppose that’s why the most popular choice was throwing the 5-Q.

Another fun and educational puzzle.

   

Sunday 9:12 AM

Unless we can change that Qd to a Qc; the flush just doesn't work for me. Defense to the lead.

   

Sunday 11:23 AM

I decided to go this way since we start with 12 combined and have potential to go much higher with a good cut. The pair of 9's to the crib might just meet up with the pones K/9 toss? After seeing the cut card, I have to wonder if the pone may have dropped that 4/8 in the crib.

   

Sunday 12:05 PM

going with the herd today

   

Sunday 2:06 PM

Flush or double-run?:

5-9C-10-J: 11pts + 3pts (Schell: 2.99) = 14pts

9-9-10-J: 8pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 14½pts

Potential:

5-9C-10-J: Improves with AAAA, 555, 6666, 8888, 99, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 14/16/17pts with 555, 99, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 14 cuts. Plus 9 club cuts for 1pt extra for the flush and 1pt for his nob = 2x9/46 = 0.39pt.

9-9-10-J: Improves with 555, 6666, 8888, 99, 101010, JJJ, QQQ = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 12/15/16pts with 555, 6666, 99, 101010, JJJ = 15 cuts. Plus 9 club cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

Position:

We need 18pts to reach 3rd street positional hole first as Pone so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 5-9C-10-J will peg slightly better.

Summary:

9-9-10-J is better for starting value by ½pt but 5-9C-10-J is better for a club cut by 0.19pt. and it has more cuts for improvement and 14 cuts for 14-17pts compared to 15 cuts for 12-16pts with 9-9-10-J. I think it will also peg slightly better so I'll throw the suited 9-Q.

   

Sunday 2:06 PM

At 528-45 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are;

________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____W4 %____W5 %
9-9-10-J___10.46+(-2.13)+6.42=19.45____53.9____80.9
5-9C-10-J__13.72+(-2.02)+2,81=19.31____53.3____80.3
5-10-J-Q___11.39+(-2.15)+5.00=18.89____51.6____78.5

Defense_______L4 %____L5 %
9-9-10-J_______7.4____ 4.7
5-9C-10-J______8.2_____5.2
5-10-J-Q_______8.2_____5.8

9-9-10-J is best for expected averages by 0.14pt. and is slightly best for Win %s and slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-Q to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Optimally (cautious offense) to the lead.