June 10, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by MY Tian
99-97*  ?
68%
20%
8%
1%
0%
0%
Total votes: 278
horus93
1326 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Monday 3:11 AM
It’s not as if there are NO offensive considerations at a score like this. I want to be dealing, ideally, at 105+ next hand to get out of the yellow zone. Even so, defense is paramount. So I’m throwing this heavy balk that also leaves a safer pegger than 5678, at the cost of (per Liam) 0.5 in mean hand score vs tossing 8Q. At an analogous spot earlier in the game, this would be hyperpositional and 8Q would be correct, but fourth street rewards extreme plays imo. That said I think 8Q is defensible because 5788 isn’t really much safer as a pegger than 5678 (though I think it IS safer). I don’t think 5Q is defensible. The odds of 6788 getting us into peg-out range, though non-negligible, are lower than the odds that the 5Q toss loses us the game by letting oppo count out next hand. Of course you make plays like this, you get hosed, but you also get hosed doing it the other way, and I think the latter is somewhat more likely than the former.
Gougie00
5790 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Monday 3:23 AM
Captain, We've been hit! We're going down.
Gougie00 says: I saw a chance to win and I took it.
zeke76
1453 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Monday 3:37 AM
Going with Horus’ logic and with that cut, glad I did.
mfetchCT425
1439 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Monday 4:21 AM
If opponent was back a few pegs, I would have gone defensive with the 8-Q (or 6-Q) discard. With them 24 points away and with three counts, I’ll go all out aggressive here.
cribbagepogo says: Tom Jones just had a birthday, I can hear him singing, "It's now or never!"
Ras2829 says: Hi mfetchCT425: Like your thinkg and stated so concisely.
glmccuskey
4153 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Monday 4:25 AM
Total defense for me. Who amongst us has struggled to get out in three hands from where the dealer is at 97.
james500
3980 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Monday 5:09 AM
I think fewer points for them is better than a few more points for me.

Wordle 1,087 4/6

⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬛⬛🟨⬛⬛
🟨🟨🟨⬛⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Eolus619 says: James500..maybe the most obscure word i have ever seen for wordle
james500 says: Hi Bruce. Indeed. Quite niche I thought, but maybe quite commonplace for other people? I've not really been on this site as often over the past fortnight or so, apologies if there have been other comments that I haven't responded to.
kal79 says: Agreed on the Wordle! Wasn’t even sure that was a word. Wordle 1,087 6/6 ⬜⬜🟨⬜⬜ 🟨⬜⬜⬜⬜ ⬜🟩🟩🟩⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩⬜ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
HfxKen
938 votes

Joined: February 2020

 
 
 
Monday 5:14 AM
Oh, you mean THOSE torpedos!
fentesk
1261 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Monday 5:30 AM
Defense for me. I tossed the 6 instead of the 8 (with the Q) with the thought it breaks up my hand a little bit, but am still concerned how bunched things are. I would lead from the pair.
Jazzselke
2625 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Monday 6:00 AM
If the opponent was at Hole 100 or beyond goodbye 5Q. At 97 I will try the 6Q balk.
wasa
3073 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Monday 6:07 AM
Full offense for me... looking like it's checkmate against me... let the dominoes fall where they may.
dec
6435 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Monday 6:41 AM
The "book" says 96-97 as dealer should count out in three hands . Twenty four hand we are out . Bet we get the cut or they combine for 12 or less. Defense instead of low pct for a game hand or close. Maybe a close win? dec
MiketheExpert
1180 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Monday 8:08 AM
At hole 99, we could go for a 8/46 = 17.3% chance of getting a winning cut. Otherwise, we will have a difficult time getting into peg-out range on next deal. I like my chances best with the heavy balker (6 Q), which gives the lowest scoring crib throw as well as leaving a safer pegging hand in my opinion than the long run of (5 6 7 8). After the 5 cut, I will thank the lucky stars I did not toss the (5 Q), and try to fidaddle my way out of trouble on the pegs. I'm kind of partial to leading with the 7 myself, which seems to minimize the risk of a 15-2 occurring. Won't be able to escape if this lead is paired (having to play my 5 next), but it seems the least risky to me.
MiketheExpert says: Gave the double-run slightly too much credit. It seems there are only 5 winning cuts = 10.8%. But the 6's will leave us only 2 points shy of the winning hole.
Sgt Pegger
332 votes

Joined: July 2017

 
 
 
Monday 8:13 AM
Wow! I know I have my own drum sometimes but today really surprises me. Any cut card helps this hold, and the 8/Q is not a great toss to the pones crib. I will lead the 7.
horus93 says: I think you could well be right. The defensive pegging upside doing max defense as most are probably doesn't outweigh the value of the better hand. Surprised more didn't go your way honestly.
horus93 says: And a lot of us probably overvalued 6q vs 8q as balks. With this delta they're equal and it's a small difference to begin with.
MiketheExpert says: The (8 Q) is of even less value than usual when holding an 8 and a 7. Not a very comfortable hand no matter how you slice it, but I figured if I am going to play this way, might as well go all out to try and prevent as much dealer damage as possible (I will try to hold him to 12 or less, or a failing that, no more than 111 where he'll have a theoretical 50% chance of counting out on the next hand.) (5 7 8 8) still has 17% chance of leaving you at the min 6 (with either an A or a 4 cut), but it is still min hole 105. Had I been at hole 97 though, I probably would have gone this way where all cuts do improve.
MiketheExpert says: To horus's point, the delta between (6 Q) and (8 Q) should be negligible at best...it is the perceived risk of holding (5 6 7 8) vs. (5 7 8 8) which swung me, but that is more of a hunch than likely backed up by the "actual" numbers in this case.
kal79
74 votes

Joined: April 2024

 
 
 
Monday 10:58 AM
Looks like it’s just me and Sgt Pegger with this one! We simply cannot afford to keep the double run with things as bleak as they already are. Keeping it this way vs 5-7-8-8 just felt a little more flexible to me, even though to do not want to concede any runs to our opponent. I’ll lead the 6 and play off best I can. We’ve got a dozen in the hand but are far from out of the woods here.
kal79 says: By flexible, I mean that leading a 5,7, or 8 just doesn’t seem like a good idea at this point. I don’t want to encourage any runs or give up an incredibly easy 15-2 with the 5. We have to be thinking lockdown defense here, especially post cut.
guideontheside
374 votes

Joined: July 2020

 
 
 
Monday 11:58 AM
Usually I am damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead! But I felt like I was bit too far back for that - so opted for defense instead, hoping that I can get out in the next 3 hands, while holding them.
RubyTuesday
957 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Monday 1:11 PM
It’s one of those “I wish I hadn’t thrown that” days. It just seemed like a good idea at the time!
Coeurdelion
5646 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Monday 1:37 PM
I'd normally keep the dozen but I'll also look at 5-6-7-8 (8-Q):

6-7-8-8: 12pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.34) = +4½pts

5-6-7-8: 6pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = +1¾pts

Potential:

6-7-8-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 666, 777, 88, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 16/20/21/24pts with AAAA, 666, 777, 88, 9999 = 16 cuts.

5-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 88, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/10/12/14pts with 2222, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 88, 9999 = 23 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is already 1pt past 4th street positional hole so I think we should play Defense and keep them short of 11pts if possible. On the other hand we could go for the win needing 22pts which if we don't go out this deal we could go out in the pegging next deal.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 5-6-7-8 will peg better and this hand normally pegs well.

Summary:

6-7-7-8 is better for starting value by 2¾pts but in this position do we really want to discard 5-Q to opponent. 5-6-7-8 has guaranteed improvement and still has 23 cuts for 9-14pts. So I'll throw an 8-Q.
HalscribCLX
5371 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Monday 1:37 PM
At 99-97* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total___W1 %____W2 %
6-7-8-8____14.57+(-2.61)+(-7.63)=4.33____14.2____36.6
5-6-7-8_____9.52+(-2.93)+(-3.87)=2.72_____0.4____27.0
5-7-8-8_____9.00+(-2.72)+(-3.94)=2.34_____0.1____39.7

Defense______L1 %____L2 %
6-7-8-8_______12.9____56.3
5-6-7-8________4.2____51.7
5-7-8-8________3.4____48.4

6-7-8-8 is best for expected averages by 1.61pts but in this end of game criticcaal board position Win/Loss %s are more important. 6-7-8-8 is very much best for Win %s and although the 5-Q results in very high Loss %s the former are not outweighed by them. So I'll select the 5-Q to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead an 8 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Points
8______________________1.30
6______________________1.15
7______________________1.03
MiketheExpert says: I can't see any way to play a SAFE strategy while at the same time discarding (5 Q) here. I will continue to throw one of the balking discards at this score, despite the "HAL" %'s.
MiketheExpert says: I did figure correctly it seems that the dealer's pegs "defensive" gains outweighed the slightly higher crib score of (6 Q) over (8 Q) given the delta, thus these numbers do make sense.
Assman
41 votes

Joined: May 2024

 
 
 
Monday 2:24 PM
I went aggressive and got burned. I think I understand the logic and learned the lesson. The goal isn’t to win on this hand, but rather to position ourselves favorably while keeping the opponent below 110. Plenty of point to reach 105 or more with a defense approach. Excellent puzzle and excellent comment. Thank you.
Ras2829
5214 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Monday 2:46 PM
My choice was offense at all points with dealer at 97 needing the deal in 4th street CPZ (95-99). will lead an 8 and take any pegs offered. If had chosen defense would have discarded 8-Q as did Coeurdelion above. Note 6-Q is the lowest scoring discard in this hand. The 8-Q moves to the fore in this case because of the presence of the 7-8 remaining in n/d hand (both account for negative delta) making it less likely that the 8 discard will score in the crib. N/d holds no 6/9 cards; so, the 6 discard is more likely to score in the crib even though pure averages suggest otherwise. Would have chosen 8-Q discard if dealer were at hole 90-95. Have a hard time doing so with dealer already at 97.