Monday 3:11 AM

It’s not as if there are NO offensive considerations at a score like this. I want to be dealing, ideally, at 105+ next hand to get out of the yellow zone. Even so, defense is paramount. So I’m throwing this heavy balk that also leaves a safer pegger than 5678, at the cost of (per Liam) 0.5 in mean hand score vs tossing 8Q. At an analogous spot earlier in the game, this would be hyperpositional and 8Q would be correct, but fourth street rewards extreme plays imo. That said I think 8Q is defensible because 5788 isn’t really much safer as a pegger than 5678 (though I think it IS safer). I don’t think 5Q is defensible. The odds of 6788 getting us into peg-out range, though non-negligible, are lower than the odds that the 5Q toss loses us the game by letting oppo count out next hand. Of course you make plays like this, you get hosed, but you also get hosed doing it the other way, and I think the latter is somewhat more likely than the former.

   

Monday 3:23 AM

Captain, We've been hit! We're going down.

   

Monday 3:37 AM

Going with Horus’ logic and with that cut, glad I did.

   

Monday 4:21 AM

If opponent was back a few pegs, I would have gone defensive with the 8-Q (or 6-Q) discard. With them 24 points away and with three counts, I’ll go all out aggressive here.

   

Monday 4:25 AM

Total defense for me. Who amongst us has struggled to get out in three hands from where the dealer is at 97.

   

Monday 5:09 AM

I think fewer points for them is better than a few more points for me.

Wordle 1,087 4/6

⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
⬛⬛🟨⬛⬛
🟨🟨🟨⬛⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

   

Monday 5:14 AM

Oh, you mean THOSE torpedos!

   

Monday 5:30 AM

Defense for me. I tossed the 6 instead of the 8 (with the Q) with the thought it breaks up my hand a little bit, but am still concerned how bunched things are. I would lead from the pair.

   

Monday 6:00 AM

If the opponent was at Hole 100 or beyond goodbye 5Q. At 97 I will try the 6Q balk.

   

Monday 6:07 AM

Full offense for me... looking like it's checkmate against me... let the dominoes fall where they may.

   

Monday 6:41 AM

The "book" says 96-97 as dealer should count out in three hands . Twenty four hand we are out . Bet we get the cut or they combine for 12 or less. Defense instead of low pct for a game hand or close. Maybe a close win? dec

   

Monday 8:08 AM

At hole 99, we could go for a 8/46 = 17.3% chance of getting a winning cut. Otherwise, we will have a difficult time getting into peg-out range on next deal. I like my chances best with the heavy balker (6 Q), which gives the lowest scoring crib throw as well as leaving a safer pegging hand in my opinion than the long run of (5 6 7 8). After the 5 cut, I will thank the lucky stars I did not toss the (5 Q), and try to fidaddle my way out of trouble on the pegs. I'm kind of partial to leading with the 7 myself, which seems to minimize the risk of a 15-2 occurring. Won't be able to escape if this lead is paired (having to play my 5 next), but it seems the least risky to me.

   

Monday 8:13 AM

Wow! I know I have my own drum sometimes but today really surprises me. Any cut card helps this hold, and the 8/Q is not a great toss to the pones crib. I will lead the 7.

   

Monday 10:58 AM

Looks like it’s just me and Sgt Pegger with this one! We simply cannot afford to keep the double run with things as bleak as they already are. Keeping it this way vs 5-7-8-8 just felt a little more flexible to me, even though to do not want to concede any runs to our opponent. I’ll lead the 6 and play off best I can. We’ve got a dozen in the hand but are far from out of the woods here.

   

Monday 11:58 AM

Usually I am damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead! But I felt like I was bit too far back for that - so opted for defense instead, hoping that I can get out in the next 3 hands, while holding them.

   

Monday 1:11 PM

It’s one of those “I wish I hadn’t thrown that” days. It just seemed like a good idea at the time!

   

Monday 1:37 PM

I'd normally keep the dozen but I'll also look at 5-6-7-8 (8-Q):

6-7-8-8: 12pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.34) = +4½pts

5-6-7-8: 6pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = +1¾pts

Potential:

6-7-8-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 555, 666, 777, 88, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 16/20/21/24pts with AAAA, 666, 777, 88, 9999 = 16 cuts.

5-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 88, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 9/10/12/14pts with 2222, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 88, 9999 = 23 cuts.

Position:

Dealer is already 1pt past 4th street positional hole so I think we should play Defense and keep them short of 11pts if possible. On the other hand we could go for the win needing 22pts which if we don't go out this deal we could go out in the pegging next deal.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 5-6-7-8 will peg better and this hand normally pegs well.

Summary:

6-7-7-8 is better for starting value by 2¾pts but in this position do we really want to discard 5-Q to opponent. 5-6-7-8 has guaranteed improvement and still has 23 cuts for 9-14pts. So I'll throw an 8-Q.

   

Monday 1:37 PM

At 99-97* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total___W1 %____W2 %
6-7-8-8____14.57+(-2.61)+(-7.63)=4.33____14.2____36.6
5-6-7-8_____9.52+(-2.93)+(-3.87)=2.72_____0.4____27.0
5-7-8-8_____9.00+(-2.72)+(-3.94)=2.34_____0.1____39.7

Defense______L1 %____L2 %
6-7-8-8_______12.9____56.3
5-6-7-8________4.2____51.7
5-7-8-8________3.4____48.4

6-7-8-8 is best for expected averages by 1.61pts but in this end of game criticcaal board position Win/Loss %s are more important. 6-7-8-8 is very much best for Win %s and although the 5-Q results in very high Loss %s the former are not outweighed by them. So I'll select the 5-Q to discard.

After the 5 cut I'll lead an 8 and play Offense:

Lead___________Our Pegging Points
8______________________1.30
6______________________1.15
7______________________1.03

   

Monday 2:24 PM

I went aggressive and got burned. I think I understand the logic and learned the lesson. The goal isn’t to win on this hand, but rather to position ourselves favorably while keeping the opponent below 110. Plenty of point to reach 105 or more with a defense approach. Excellent puzzle and excellent comment. Thank you.

   

Monday 2:46 PM

My choice was offense at all points with dealer at 97 needing the deal in 4th street CPZ (95-99). will lead an 8 and take any pegs offered. If had chosen defense would have discarded 8-Q as did Coeurdelion above. Note 6-Q is the lowest scoring discard in this hand. The 8-Q moves to the fore in this case because of the presence of the 7-8 remaining in n/d hand (both account for negative delta) making it less likely that the 8 discard will score in the crib. N/d holds no 6/9 cards; so, the 6 discard is more likely to score in the crib even though pure averages suggest otherwise. Would have chosen 8-Q discard if dealer were at hole 90-95. Have a hard time doing so with dealer already at 97.