June 11, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by fentesk
11-3*  ?
50%
44%
3%
1%
0%
Total votes: 278
fenteskIs there a strong preference how to split this hand?
Gougie00
5790 votes

Joined: March 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:09 AM
I'll settle for the 16 hand. Lead the 7.
mrob2199
1482 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:11 AM
Ill play for the 6 or 9 cut for 24-7 or 8 for 20- I’ll throw 3/6 every day and twice on Sunday
james500
3980 votes

Joined: June 2013

 
 
 
Tuesday 3:15 AM
Helped by cuts of 2 and 5 also.
RedTailRogue
780 votes

Joined: December 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:02 AM
I played it safe with the double run. Of course the 9 got cut
dec
6435 votes

Joined: April 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:03 AM
This is when I am going for a three point win. That is my preference. dec
zeke76
1453 votes

Joined: August 2018

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:09 AM
What Rob said.

Whatever you do, don’t flush.

And for those that also play Wordle and need another daily game, I give you Worldle, which tests your geography knowledge:
https://worldle.teuteuf.fr/
kal79 says: I’ve been a routine player of Worldle as well. We were thrown an easy one today! The bonus rounds are a nice twist.
zeke76 says: I was pleased I got South Georgia on my first guess a few weeks ago, but yes today is easy (though with the wrong answer for the capital oddly).
Eolus619
1400 votes

Joined: June 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:52 AM
A very high likely hood to be dealing first…and ahead… from at least 23 next hand…why not toss a fairly defensive 3/6 and have a cut chance to 24.?
Ras2829
5214 votes

Joined: November 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:55 AM
With opponent at 3 holes with the deal, move down the board. Flushes are a good choice when points are equal. Here one would reduce hand count by three points to hold the flush. Why not go for the 24-point hand? If cutting a middle card, there are only four 7/8 in the deck and seven 6/9; so, if turning a middle card the 6 or 9 is most likely. Holding 7-7-8-8, no benefit is gained by cutting A/2; so, combined values are slightly better if holding the double run. The double run is also slightly better for offensive pegging. Even, so will opt for the 24-pointer. Suspect HalscribCLX choice will be the double run. The cribbot might even choose defense. Guess I should let Hal Mueller speak for himself. My choice is offense with a reasonable chance to bust the game wide open. Why not?
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Would defense have made you play it differently?
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: If choosing a defense strategy, the 6-7-7-8, with 7 lead becomes more palatable. A cut of Ace, deuce, or five add significantly more value to 6-7-7-8 than in holding 7-7-8-8. With dealer at hole 3, I see no reason to eliminate the 24-hand prospect since the cards needed to make the 24 points are the mid-cards most available in the deck (6-6-6 and 9-9-9-9). It seems very counter intuitive that 7-7-8-8 has lower loss % than 6-7-7-8 and also has lower win %.
mfetchCT425
1439 votes

Joined: February 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 4:59 AM
Better shot at 24.
sterno
479 votes

Joined: December 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:07 AM
All the shiny toys this morning, double run, two pairs and a flush? I focused on the double run and what would be the best balk to the dealer.
Jazzselke
2625 votes

Joined: March 2009

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:15 AM
Open-ended for 24.
wasa
3073 votes

Joined: November 2014

 
 
 
Tuesday 5:50 AM
I prefer 6-7-7-8 for the 2 or 5 cut.
horus93
1326 votes

Joined: December 2017

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:11 AM
I handle these situations this way; but here, it's a perfect tie in hand mean between this and 6778. 6778 is a better offensive pegger, but this has a shot at 24. Whether going for a skunk or not doesn't make a difference in choice of strategy, offense is the best way. Little to fear from oppo with him at 3*, and a good example of how starting dealer can end up on offense.
kal79
74 votes

Joined: April 2024

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:27 AM
I’m not going to restrain myself and keep the double run. Let’s shoot for 24. Not as many cuts but higher upside. Plus we already have 12 anyway. Lead the 8.
glmccuskey
4153 votes

Joined: April 2011

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:28 AM
Nice cut
Assman
41 votes

Joined: May 2024

 
 
 
Tuesday 6:42 AM
I'm usually pretty conservative and try to play the best odds. I passed on the flush once I saw it was a loser. Clearly the 3 gets tossed, and then it comes down to the 6 or the 8. I read the comments and understand that tossing the 6 has the biggest upside. I initially thought 3-8 in the pone crib was safer than 3-6. I'm right, but not by much. I will come back later for the calculations and odds. Thank you so much for all the comments and suggestions. This is a good group and I feel like I'm learning with each puzzle.
kal79 says: Assman, this group is an excellent one to learn from. I’ve been playing for a long time, but since joining the dialogue here, I’ve really taken my understanding of those difficult hands to a new level and am learning continually. Glad to see I’m not the only one jumping in in 2024!
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Assman. I believe (3-6) over the board is actually safer than (3-8). At least using Schell, and Ras's discard averages.
Assman says: Thanks for the comment, Kal. I agree. I enjoy the daily hand the minute I wake up, but then I always have to think about it and then even later I come back to see the comments. I've been following yours quite a bit as you always have good insight.
Assman says: Hi Inushtuk1, good evening. You're right. Per the Schell table 3-8 give pone an average of 5.05 while 3-6 offers pone only 4.87 by comparison. Live and learn. I appreciate you pointing that out to me. Thank you. I need to study the tables more..
hecklebush
210 votes

Joined: February 2022

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:26 AM
Sgt Pegger
332 votes

Joined: July 2017

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:27 AM
Today was a day for learning for me on many levels. After reading the submissions thus far, I now see the wisdom in reaching for the 24.
hecklebush
210 votes

Joined: February 2022

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:28 AM
Looks like I, and 51% of respondents, caught a 24 hand!
MiketheExpert
1180 votes

Joined: April 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 7:41 AM
Let's not mess with a good thing!
MiketheExpert says: Well, there is more ways to reach 24 if you keep the 4 fifteens I suppose....I don't see much harm in trying either.
MiketheExpert says: Yes, this has more cuts for improvement, but on second thought throwing (3 6) for the 24 cuts is growing on me, as trying to get as far down the board as we can couldn't be a bad thing.
kal79 says: Mike, this was similar to my thought process. 6-7-7-8 has more ways to make it to 16, but 3-6 vs 3-8 isn’t that much of a difference in discard. Why not go for the 24 here. Worst case we still have 12 in the hand…
RubyTuesday
957 votes

Joined: January 2019

 
 
 
Tuesday 9:37 AM
I looked at the discard tables, saw that 3 6 was a slightly better throw than 3 8, but went for the latter anyway. Oh well.
fentesk
1261 votes

Joined: January 2021

 
 
 
Tuesday 10:24 AM
I appreciate all the comments today. Posting this one I was most interested in the thinking people have behind how they choose for a hand like this (where there are multiple similar options) and am happy to see the detail people are sharing.

This is one of those hands I'd happily take multiple times per game to try out different strategies!
guideontheside
374 votes

Joined: July 2020

 
 
 
Tuesday 12:26 PM
A little bit more pegging flexibility, and I like the 8-3 to the crib better than 6-3. I almost went for the 24.
Coeurdelion
5646 votes

Joined: October 2007

 
 
 
Tuesday 1:43 PM
I think its between 6-7-7-8C (3-8D) and 7-7-8-8 (3-6). I don't like the 3-7 discard as 5s often find there way into the box:

6-7-7-8C: 12pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.05) = 7pts

7-7-8-8: 12pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.87) = 7pts

Potential:

6-7-7-8C: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 5555, 666, 77, 88, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 16/20/24pts with AAAA, 2222, 77, 88, 9999 = 16 cuts.

7-7-8-8: Improves with AAAA, 666, 77, 88, 9999 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 20/24pts with 666, 77, 88, 9999 = 11 cuts.

Position:

We have a good initial lead and if we reach 28pts at the end of this deal we'll be on target to reach 44pts first as Pone. This requires 17pts so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 6-7-7-8 will peg better.

Summary:

According to Schell 7-7-8-8 is better for starting value by 0.18pt. but the 3-6 is suited so this reduces to 0.15pt. 6-7-7-8 has more cuts for improvement and 16 cuts for 16-24pts compared to 11 cuts for 20/24pts with 7-7-8-8. So I'll throw the unsuited 3-8.
HalscribCLX
5371 votes

Joined: February 2008

 
 
 
Tuesday 1:43 PM
At 11-3* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total____W8 %____W9 %
6-7-7-8C___14.65+1.20+(-4.33)=11.52____45.2____67.9
7-7-8-8____14.70+1.07+(-4.47)=11.30____44.4____66.8
6-7C-8-8___14.48+1.11=(-4.34)=11.25____44.8____67.5

Offense_______L8 %____L9 %
6-7-7-8C_______10.2____8.5
7-7-8-8_________9.9____8.8
6-7C-8-8_______10.3____8.7

6-7-7-8c is best for expected averages by 0.22pt. over 7-7-8-8 and is slightly best for Win %s although 7-7-8-8 is very slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 3-8D to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll lead a 7 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead___________Net Pegging Points
7____________________(-0.89)
6____________________(-1.27)
8____________________(-1.32)