June 11, 2024
50% 50% | |||||
44% 44% | |||||
3% 3% | |||||
1% 1% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
| Total votes: 278 | |||||
| fentesk | Is there a strong preference how to split this hand? |
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Joined: March 2008 (5962 votes) Tuesday 3:09 AM
I'll settle for the 16 hand. Lead the 7. |
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Joined: February 2009 (1547 votes) Tuesday 3:11 AM
Ill play for the 6 or 9 cut for 24-7 or 8 for 20- I’ll throw 3/6 every day and twice on Sunday |
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Joined: June 2013 (4145 votes) Tuesday 3:15 AM
Helped by cuts of 2 and 5 also. |
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Joined: December 2021 (944 votes) Tuesday 4:02 AM
I played it safe with the double run. Of course the 9 got cut |
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Joined: April 2008 (6610 votes) Tuesday 4:03 AM
This is when I am going for a three point win. That is my preference. dec |
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Joined: August 2018 (1531 votes) Tuesday 4:09 AM
What Rob said.
Whatever you do, don’t flush. And for those that also play Wordle and need another daily game, I give you Worldle, which tests your geography knowledge: https://worldle.teuteuf.fr/ kal79 says: I’ve been a routine player of Worldle as well. We were thrown an easy one today! The bonus rounds are a nice twist. zeke76 says: I was pleased I got South Georgia on my first guess a few weeks ago, but yes today is easy (though with the wrong answer for the capital oddly). |
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Joined: June 2020 (1558 votes) Tuesday 4:52 AM
A very high likely hood to be dealing first…and ahead… from at least 23 next hand…why not toss a fairly defensive 3/6 and have a cut chance to 24.? |
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Joined: November 2008 (5370 votes) Tuesday 4:55 AM
With opponent at 3 holes with the deal, move down the board. Flushes are a good choice when points are equal. Here one would reduce hand count by three points to hold the flush. Why not go for the 24-point hand? If cutting a middle card, there are only four 7/8 in the deck and seven 6/9; so, if turning a middle card the 6 or 9 is most likely. Holding 7-7-8-8, no benefit is gained by cutting A/2; so, combined values are slightly better if holding the double run. The double run is also slightly better for offensive pegging. Even, so will opt for the 24-pointer. Suspect HalscribCLX choice will be the double run. The cribbot might even choose defense. Guess I should let Hal Mueller speak for himself. My choice is offense with a reasonable chance to bust the game wide open. Why not? Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Would defense have made you play it differently? Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: If choosing a defense strategy, the 6-7-7-8, with 7 lead becomes more palatable. A cut of Ace, deuce, or five add significantly more value to 6-7-7-8 than in holding 7-7-8-8. With dealer at hole 3, I see no reason to eliminate the 24-hand prospect since the cards needed to make the 24 points are the mid-cards most available in the deck (6-6-6 and 9-9-9-9). It seems very counter intuitive that 7-7-8-8 has lower loss % than 6-7-7-8 and also has lower win %. |
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Joined: February 2009 (1505 votes) Tuesday 4:59 AM
Better shot at 24. |
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Joined: December 2020 (531 votes) Tuesday 5:07 AM
All the shiny toys this morning, double run, two pairs and a flush? I focused on the double run and what would be the best balk to the dealer. |
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Joined: March 2009 (2729 votes) Tuesday 5:15 AM
Open-ended for 24. |
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Joined: November 2014 (3205 votes) Tuesday 5:50 AM
I prefer 6-7-7-8 for the 2 or 5 cut. |
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Joined: December 2017 (1330 votes) Tuesday 6:11 AM
I handle these situations this way; but here, it's a perfect tie in hand mean between this and 6778. 6778 is a better offensive pegger, but this has a shot at 24. Whether going for a skunk or not doesn't make a difference in choice of strategy, offense is the best way. Little to fear from oppo with him at 3*, and a good example of how starting dealer can end up on offense. |
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Joined: April 2024 (227 votes) Tuesday 6:27 AM
I’m not going to restrain myself and keep the double run. Let’s shoot for 24. Not as many cuts but higher upside. Plus we already have 12 anyway. Lead the 8. |
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Joined: April 2011 (4315 votes) Tuesday 6:28 AM
Nice cut |
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Joined: May 2024 (221 votes) Tuesday 6:42 AM
I'm usually pretty conservative and try to play the best odds. I passed on the flush once I saw it was a loser. Clearly the 3 gets tossed, and then it comes down to the 6 or the 8. I read the comments and understand that tossing the 6 has the biggest upside. I initially thought 3-8 in the pone crib was safer than 3-6. I'm right, but not by much. I will come back later for the calculations and odds. Thank you so much for all the comments and suggestions. This is a good group and I feel like I'm learning with each puzzle. kal79 says: Assman, this group is an excellent one to learn from. I’ve been playing for a long time, but since joining the dialogue here, I’ve really taken my understanding of those difficult hands to a new level and am learning continually. Glad to see I’m not the only one jumping in in 2024! Inushtuk1 says: Hi Assman. I believe (3-6) over the board is actually safer than (3-8). At least using Schell, and Ras's discard averages. Assman says: Thanks for the comment, Kal. I agree. I enjoy the daily hand the minute I wake up, but then I always have to think about it and then even later I come back to see the comments. I've been following yours quite a bit as you always have good insight. Assman says: Hi Inushtuk1, good evening. You're right. Per the Schell table 3-8 give pone an average of 5.05 while 3-6 offers pone only 4.87 by comparison. Live and learn. I appreciate you pointing that out to me. Thank you. I need to study the tables more.. |
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Joined: February 2022 (300 votes) Tuesday 7:26 AM
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Joined: July 2017 (490 votes) Tuesday 7:27 AM
Today was a day for learning for me on many levels. After reading the submissions thus far, I now see the wisdom in reaching for the 24. |
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Joined: February 2022 (300 votes) Tuesday 7:28 AM
Looks like I, and 51% of respondents, caught a 24 hand! |
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Joined: April 2021 (1266 votes) Tuesday 7:41 AM
Let's not mess with a good thing! MiketheExpert says: Well, there is more ways to reach 24 if you keep the 4 fifteens I suppose....I don't see much harm in trying either. MiketheExpert says: Yes, this has more cuts for improvement, but on second thought throwing (3 6) for the 24 cuts is growing on me, as trying to get as far down the board as we can couldn't be a bad thing. kal79 says: Mike, this was similar to my thought process. 6-7-7-8 has more ways to make it to 16, but 3-6 vs 3-8 isn’t that much of a difference in discard. Why not go for the 24 here. Worst case we still have 12 in the hand… |
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Joined: January 2019 (1092 votes) Tuesday 9:37 AM
I looked at the discard tables, saw that 3 6 was a slightly better throw than 3 8, but went for the latter anyway. Oh well. |
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Joined: January 2021 (1424 votes) Tuesday 10:24 AM
I appreciate all the comments today. Posting this one I was most interested in the thinking people have behind how they choose for a hand like this (where there are multiple similar options) and am happy to see the detail people are sharing.
This is one of those hands I'd happily take multiple times per game to try out different strategies! |
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Joined: July 2020 (516 votes) Tuesday 12:26 PM
A little bit more pegging flexibility, and I like the 8-3 to the crib better than 6-3. I almost went for the 24. |
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Joined: October 2007 (5765 votes) Tuesday 1:43 PM
I think its between 6-7-7-8C (3-8D) and 7-7-8-8 (3-6). I don't like the 3-7 discard as 5s often find there way into the box:
6-7-7-8C: 12pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.05) = 7pts 7-7-8-8: 12pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.87) = 7pts Potential: 6-7-7-8C: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 5555, 666, 77, 88, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 16/20/24pts with AAAA, 2222, 77, 88, 9999 = 16 cuts. 7-7-8-8: Improves with AAAA, 666, 77, 88, 9999 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 20/24pts with 666, 77, 88, 9999 = 11 cuts. Position: We have a good initial lead and if we reach 28pts at the end of this deal we'll be on target to reach 44pts first as Pone. This requires 17pts so I'll play Offense. Pegging: Playing Offense I think 6-7-7-8 will peg better. Summary: According to Schell 7-7-8-8 is better for starting value by 0.18pt. but the 3-6 is suited so this reduces to 0.15pt. 6-7-7-8 has more cuts for improvement and 16 cuts for 16-24pts compared to 11 cuts for 20/24pts with 7-7-8-8. So I'll throw the unsuited 3-8. |
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Joined: February 2008 (5520 votes) Tuesday 1:43 PM
At 11-3* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Our Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total____W8 %____W9 % 6-7-7-8C___14.65+1.20+(-4.33)=11.52____45.2____67.9 7-7-8-8____14.70+1.07+(-4.47)=11.30____44.4____66.8 6-7C-8-8___14.48+1.11=(-4.34)=11.25____44.8____67.5 Offense_______L8 %____L9 % 6-7-7-8C_______10.2____8.5 7-7-8-8_________9.9____8.8 6-7C-8-8_______10.3____8.7 6-7-7-8c is best for expected averages by 0.22pt. over 7-7-8-8 and is slightly best for Win %s although 7-7-8-8 is very slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 3-8D to discard. After the 9 cut I'll lead a 7 and play Optimally (cautious offense): Lead___________Net Pegging Points 7____________________(-0.89) 6____________________(-1.27) 8____________________(-1.32) |
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