Tuesday 3:06 AM

Another Taco Tuesday, and another puzzle by Inushtuk1, who never disappoints. We are Ahead and Dealing on First Street, and we have a wonderful position, yet it's still very early in the game. 🌮 🌮 🌮

We have a Small Card Run-of-Four, but in order to retain it, we would have to swallow the "poison" that is also known as Toss (9 K). It was just last Thursday, July 18, 2024, when I similarly diagnosed Dealer Discard Toss (9 Q) as "Crib Poison" because it has a Crib Value below Three Points. I went on to further lament that only TWO Dealer Discards in Cribbage have such a low Crib Value: Toss (T K), and Toss (9 Q). But wait! 💊 💊 💊

And then, as I often do, I went on to tell a long and detailed, almost painful (yet eloquent) story, one that was somewhat related to the topic; and if you missed it, or skimmed over it, you really should go back and re-read the entire entry for this date (we'll wait right here for you): https://www.dailycribbagehand.org/show.php?date=2024/07/18

We need something to talk about while those negligent readers who were remiss complete their make-up session. Did you ever notice how different Ideas or "Camps" often develop in games like Cribbage? I mean, as Pone with (2 3 3 4 5 9), you have your Toss (2 9) Camp, and your Toss (5 9) Camp. And as the Dealer with (5 5 6 7 J Q), you have your Toss (J Q) Camp, and your Toss (6 7) Camp. Which "Camp" are you in? Me? In both cases, I spend my free time in the Latter Camp. More on this later. 🪔 🪔 🪔

Welcome back, itinerant readers! And now: What about Toss (9 K)? As it turns out, enough Kings are relinquished by our careful Opponents in Cribbage to allow the Crib Value of Toss (9 K) to "tread water" just a 'skosh' above Three Points, but barely. Therefore, if you wish to believe that Toss (9 K) is substantially any better than either Toss (9 Q) or even Toss (T K), go ahead; but do it at your own peril! 🍉 🍉 🍉

Toss (9 K) is NOT what we like to give ourselves; it's what we like to throw in the Other Player's Crib! It's NOT what's for dinner. At least maybe. Cribbage enjoys its reputation as a sophisticated game, and like an elegant restaurant, it likes to fancy itself by not putting prices on the discard menu. "Would the gentleman like to order now? I can come back. More wine for the lady, perhaps?" 🍷 🍇 🍷

It will decrement our Run by only a Single Point if we decide to either: Toss (A 9), (4 9), (A K), or (4 K) today, and any of these will boost our Initial Hand up to Five Points, with a slightly better Crib as well! The only "cost" for this double-enhancement appears to be that we now have Four Ideas from which to choose, whereas those who like the Four-Card-Run have their minds already made up with just that one choice! But aren't ANY OF THESE Three-Card-Run ideas superior to Toss (9 K)? Probably, yes. Who knows?! Do I have to do all the work here? 🪓 🪓 🪓

Why say "probably"? Well, if you flat-out enjoy the opportunity to peg with four Small Cards, then by all means, Toss (9 K), and enjoy yourself! Frankly, many players find that four Small Cards do not often peg as well as three Small Cards and one higher "Kicker" Card.

But the Four-Card-Run does have added possibilities for "catching" a four-card Double Run, and that will attract many players, to be fair. It's very important to note that Keep (A 2 3 4), while ostensibly starting out with just Four Points, does improve to at least Six Points after ANY Cut Card, so keep this in mind if you're leaning toward retaining the Four-Card-Run. (Nobody shall accuse me of not knowing my audience.)

If we do decide to Keep (A 2 3 K), we can obtain up to Fourteen Points, and while this will only happen after Three Cuts (222), or 3/46 equals 0.065 or about 6.5% of the time, the thing is, Keep (A 2 3 4) can only reach a Maximum Hand of Ten Points, which is something I discussed last Friday, July 19, 2024, when we had a similar Four-Card-Run as Pone. You might want to browse through that puzzle again, because heaven knows that 30% of 'you people' picked this choice (mostly, it should be noted, those folks that slept in and voted late): https://www.dailycribbagehand.org/show.php?date=2024/07/19

"Throwing Wide" with either Toss (A 9) or Toss (A K) is known to be defensive when we are Pone, so there is a strong likelihood that these are "Easily Discarded Discard Ideas" for inflicting upon our own Crib, and this leaves Toss (4 9) or Toss (4 K) as our candidates; some players might see the King as a "Shiny Object" to attract attention in our Crib, while others will prefer to Toss (4 9), and I'm firmly in the latter camp. (Truth be known: I spent time every summer as a kid at Camp Latter! You can tell I'm almost finished here.) 🛶 🛶 🛶

Let's Toss (4 9) today and get this game going again. After the 8 Card Cut, we still have Five Points in our Hand, with prospects for another possible "total miss" in our Crib. But even if we knew the Cut Card ahead of time, as long as we are breaking up the Run, we've done the best we can do here. Maybe we should have slept in late and kept the Four-Card-Run, because these folks now have Eight Points, and probably just as good or better in the Crib. Ah, but they missed a gorgeous sunrise. And Our Camp is way better than theirs; did I tell you? Our Camp is co-ed.

Wordle 1,130 4/6 (plugged in to all green today!) 💚 💚 💚

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Tuesday 4:07 AM

I think the four run with a truly bad crib toss has more growth potential than a three run with a somewhat less bad toss, but these close hands are why I’m a duffer at home and not a tournament player.

Tuesday 4:21 AM

A234 is good, but the associated K9 puts me off. I think 234 is a better run to keep than A23 because it works immediately with cuts of Ace,2,3,4,5,6,8,9 and X, (42/46), whereas A23 only works immediately with cuts of A,2,3,4,9 and X, (30/46).

KA in the crib can immediately be helped by A,4,5 or K, (13 cards), whereas A9 in the crib can immediately be helped by A,5,6 or 9, (14 cards).

234K (A9) it is then.

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
23rd Jul 2024
🏆Score: 121 to 116
🌋SP: 1425
📅Streak: 2
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/192/3333658/1

Tuesday 4:28 AM

I liked the fourteen hand potential but I will play the odds for cuts with this keep and discard. Defense on the pegging. I will throw my hat in the ring here GSND ... great start now dealer ? dec

Tuesday 4:32 AM

I like keeping the lowest three cards (A-2-3) in the hand for possible pegging. Hand has max 14 potential with the 3 cut. We have a magic 11 with the 2-9. All the viable options leave a sub-par toss to our crib, but maybe the 4-K catches the often tossed K from non-dealer.

Tuesday 4:53 AM

I'm going to end up with a poor crib toss if I'm keeping some part of the run together. I decided to go with try 2-3-4-9 as it has an 11 and a three-card 16 that will take advantage of X-X-X-X or X-X-X-5.

Tuesday 4:58 AM

Excellent puzzle. I don't know the right answer. If its your crib, A-K. My crib I'll toss 4-9 and pray for a 2 starter. Al Miller would preach about tossing odd cards in the crib to get a 15 somewhere. Cannot do that with even cards.

I might learn something today. Even this dullwit can learn something new.

Tuesday 5:10 AM

Several choices for max points, but this is the best pegging hand of the bunch.

Tuesday 5:14 AM

Excellent puzzle. Lot's of possibilites however each scenario has high costs. Frankly I flip floped around and ended up dumping da ends. This leap of desperation was in line with Liam and others. I need to follow up with JQT's reading after work.

Tuesday 5:16 AM

Prefer the 2349 as it is helped by a 6 or 8 cut; the A239 is not. Not crazy though about AK; for the crib I would favor 49. So there's your choice; a close call.

Tuesday 5:20 AM

I have Fetch on my island today LOL. Real cards on Thursday!Taking the summer off from club, so it will feel good to hold cards again.

Tuesday 5:21 AM

Raleigh roll call: who am I going to see in Durham for the Open?

Tuesday 5:56 AM

Who am I to disagree with Colvert. On Page 57..% plays ..four card runs …counsels against holding A-2-3-4…advises A-2-3 when holding a lone nine

Tuesday 5:58 AM

Lots of good choices today. I don't think any stand out significantly more than others. Didn't want to toss myself 9-K so A-2-3-4 is out. As per Barlow, don't want to toss myself cards that add to 10 so the A-9 is out. A-K not great as harder to form runs. But the K is often a good card in the crib as opponent will often toss the K. So, decided to go this way today.

Tuesday 6:31 AM

I kept A-2-3-9 and tossed 4-K to my crib. If given a choice, I'll discard a King to my crib since opponents also like to toss Kings. This hand also has a potential of 14 should a 3 cut, but, alas, a useless 8 showed up. CribPro results: 33-18, pretty much par for the course...

Tuesday 7:49 AM

I want to play defense now that I appear to have established good position, so let's keep the face card while trying not to completely undermine my crib score. (A 9) suited might be a slightly better crib throw than the (4 9) taking delta into account, and the hand also improves on more cuts, thus this discard best seems to fit the bill today for me.

Tuesday 8:12 AM

I like it this way. I get that 4-9 to the crib is more favorable than A-9 but I prefer the 2-3-4 run to the 1-2-3 run for possible straights.

Great puzzle and fantastic comments. Thank you all.

Tuesday 8:28 AM

Tough decision for me but went with 9-4 to crib today.

Tuesday 8:32 AM

Yaye! I'm finally on a teeny tiny island today! (dead last to be exact) lol

With a 9 point lead, I decided to "salt" my crib with the beloved 2,3 combination. If I decided to play in more sensible manner Jazz says it all for me.

Tuesday 10:22 AM

At hole 19 as dealer am choosing to extend my advantage rather than defend it. If choosing defense, would have discarded 4-9. Holding A-2-3-4 as dealer provides more potential hand and peg points. Will peg optimally taking pegs that look reasonably safe. For those discarding 4-9 or 4-K, the difference is razor thin as to pegs, hand/crib scores and potential pegs with 4-9 by a whisker.

Tuesday 1:27 PM

I'm glad I submitted this puzzle, and it was not deleted by the mods. Yes, some of my submissions get deleted too. But today I learned that there were even more possible options than I had originally seen. The reason for my choice can be seen in my question to Ras at the end of his post. After the cut for only 7 in my hand, and a balking Crib Toss I will play offense.

Tuesday 2:38 PM

I liked 4 K much better than 9 K in my crib.

Tuesday 2:57 PM

I'll consider A-2-3-K (4-9), 2-3-4-K (A-9) and A-2-3-4 (9-K):

A-2-3-K: 5pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.72) = 8¾pts

2-3-4-K: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.40) = 8½pts

A-2-3-4: 4pts + 3pts (Schell: 3.06) = 7pts

Potential:

A-2-3-K: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 999 + 15xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8/9/12/14pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, KKK = 15 cuts.

2-3-4-K: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 8/9/10/12pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, KKK = 19 cuts.

A-2-3-4: Improves with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 15xxs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 7/8/10pts with AAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 38 cuts.

Position:

It looks as if it's the third deal and we were First Dealer. We've scored 3pts above average and opponent has scored the average. Our target is 34pts+ so I'll play Offense but with caution.

Pegging:

I think all these hands will peg well but both A-2-3-K and 2-3-4-K have an out card so I think will peg better.

Summary:

A-2-3-K is best for starting value by ¼pt over 2-3-4-K but 2-3-4-K has more cuts for improvement and 19 cuts for 8-12pts compared to 15 cuts for 8-14pts with A-2-3-K. A-2-3-4 starts 1¾pts lower than A-2-3-K and although it has guaranteed improvement I don't think it is in contention. So I'll throw the A-9 to my box.

Tuesday 2:57 PM

At 19*-10 playing a Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W8 %____W9 %
A-2-3-4____8.69+3.80+3.10=14.99____45.2____51.0
A-2-3-K____7.78+3.46+3.59=14.83____45.2____51.5
A-2-3-9____7.96+3.50+3.34=14.80____44.9____51.1
2-3-4-9____8.09+3.48+3.20=14.77____44.6____49.9
2-3-4-K____7.96+3.37+3.40=14.73____44.5____50.5

Offense_______L8 %____L9 %
A-2-3-4________26.8____30.5
A-2-3-K________25.9____29.8
A-2-3-9________26.0____30.0
2-3-4-9________27.1____31.1
2-3-4-K________26.4____30.6

A-2-3-4 is best for expected averages by 0.16pt. over A-2-3-K and although A-2-3-K is very slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s at this early stage of the game I'll decide based on expected averages and select the 9-K to discard.

After the 8 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Tuesday 8:23 PM

Tuesday 9:22 PM

Choosing the discard is only the price of admission... Thanks for the insight to how you would play the different options.