July 24, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by fentesk
114*-111  ?
49%
25%
11%
5%
3%
2%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 277
fenteskGame is most likely ending this hand, how do we best end up reaching 121 first? Bonus question, how do you respond to an 8 lead?
Ras2829
5285 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:08 AM
With n/d needing ten to win, it's defense and peg avoidance. Four different cards wide-ranging cards have best chance to do that. So will flush. Play off the lead and take only pegs that seem safe. Considered only discards of 7-10 and 10-10.
Ras2829 says: Best way for dealer to reach 121 first is to prevent n/d from doing so. Respond to an 8 lead with the Jack.
Eolus619 says: Ras…geeez…you have 80+ years of experience playing cribbage, #2 all time in GRPs…then you get up & post first @ 3:08am ..then you choose the flush..like me..but your comment is so detailed, insightful and helpful that all I can do is comment on how helpful, insightful & detailed your comment is…THANKS
MiketheExpert says: The only exception for me on the 8 lead might be if a J is cut. Then I am thinking strongly of taking the 15-2, as all of a sudden I like my chances of pegging 5 better than waiting for pone to count his hand.
Ras2829 says: Holding the flush, a 9 lead would be most problematic. In that case would play the 6 for 15-2.
james500
4056 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:38 AM
Two tens and two sevens in my hand means fewer of each in circulation, and less chance my opponent can pair either. As Fentesk says though, an 8 lead, (or a 9), leaves us without a safe reply if we keep the two pairs.
677J has a wider spread of cards,allowing me to more easily escape getting trapped in a run. Jack reply to an 8.
Gougie00
5870 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:40 AM
No low cards makes things difficult. I kept as low as I could. The average cribbage hand is 7, so there is 50% the pone already has enough. I don't intend to help him. Playing off to any lead, except a 7 lead. If the dealer leads a 8 or 9, then I am in trouble.
JQT
4218 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 3:51 AM
We are the Dealer at Hole 114, needing just Seven Points to WIN, but Pone sits at Hole 111, needing just Ten Points (or Pone Average) to defeat us.

Our primary effort shall be to defend during the pegging the best way we can, since Pone threatens us with First Hand Show.

A FLUSH is often the SAFE pegging choice, because it is usually filled with "random" ranked cards. But the (6c 7c Tc Jc) FLUSH seems like a red herring today, and it is very likely NOT best 'suited' to do the Defensive Pegging here, so let's NOT Toss (7d Ts) today.

The fact is, this FLUSH is actually two sets of "Touching" Cards in disguise! This can be a dangerous pegging hand, and we do have other options. Unless we could reliably peg Seven Points with such an idea, which is never going to happen (unless maybe a Jack Cut occurs), it pays to look elsewhere and NOT FLUSH TODAY.

Alternatively, we could seek some "Safety in Numbers" with Two PEARS 🍐 🍐 as we can still begin with Four Points if we Keep (7 7 T T) and Toss (6 J). Even without any help whatsoever, as the Dealer, we shall ALWAYS peg One Hole, thus we will get to Hole 119 with certainty by completion of this deal.

Therefore, our worst "survival outcome" result is probably a score of (119-120*). More likely is that we get at least Two Points in our Crib, so we should NOT WORRY AT ALL about our own points scored today! Doing such only leads to disaster.

Some may feel the need to retain three parts of a Double Run by holding onto either 6-7-7 or T-T-J in any of its four different forms, but I believe that ANY AND ALL of these ideas are much more dangerous than simply retaining the Two PAIRS, and almost as dangerous as the FLUSH.

Let's Toss (6 J) today, and tread as carefully as the cards we have dealt ourselves allow. If a Jack Cut occurs (6.5% chance), pegging aggressively is up to the individual!

After the Trey of Spades Cut, we still have Four Points in our Hand, and no known help coming via our Crib. Still, even though our NET Total may not 'cover the distance' by completion of this deal, our sole focus must remain on Defensive Pegging.

If Pone leads ANYTHING BUT a 5 Card or a 6 Card, let's respond with a 7 Card. An 8 Card Lead is probably the only idea worthy of serious debate, although after a 5 Card Cut, I might PAIR a Ten "T" Card Lead, since we're likely to lose anyway.

Wordle 1,131 4/6 (knack might have been easier)

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JQT says: Let's just look at one aspect of holding the FLUSH (6c 7c Tc Jc) as compared with retaining the Two PAIRS (7 7 T T). I already pointed out that this particular FLUSH is essentially two groups of "Touching" Cards, and as such, it is much more prone to getting 'tangled up' into a Run during the pegging. But what about Pone being able to score simple PAIRS against us while pegging? The hand with Two PAIRS can only be scored upon via PAIRING with Four Cards (77, TT), while the FLUSH (6c 7c Tc Jc) is able to be PAIRED by Pone using Ten Cards (666, 77, TT, JJJ) since all four card ranks are different, which is a whopping 250% increase! Holding a PAIR also makes it possible for us, if we do get PAIRED, to score PAIRS Royal on some occasions. And maybe most important of all: if Pone cannot score upon one of our cards today, then, since we hold PAIRS, we always have a relatively "safe" second card to play later, and I dub this effect the 🔒 "Safety in Numbers" principle of holding two or more cards of the same rank while pegging in a Defensive Pegging Scenario. Remember: Whenever we are dealt an abundance of something, the odds that our Opponent was dealt any of that same thing is vastly reduced!
JQT says: I'm in the 3% voting bloc today, as the NASDAQ falls 📉 by a similar amount, and still over an hour of trading to go!
RubyTuesday
1024 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:06 AM
I wanted to put a pair in my crib so went for 7 7.. none of the commenters have done that so far so I may be alone here in my 7 7 boat.
JQT
4218 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:25 AM
Here is a close playout of today's game:

Sweet Summer Endgame JQT-REX 24 Jul 2024 (fentesk puzzle)

Score: (114*-111)
Seeds: Twists [0][0][0] Scenario Deal 1, Cut 3h
REX : Pone = Keep (Qd Qc Kh Kc) and Toss (8h Td)
JQT : Deal = Keep (7d 7c Ts Tc) and Toss (6c Jc)
Tally: Pone 4 Points, Dealer 4 Points, Crib 0 Points

Pegging: Q 7 K (27-1), T K T (30=1), Q 7 (17=1), Pone = 1, Dealer = 2

The pegging seemed uneventful, which is the way we like it in such a precarious endgame! As it turned out, both players were clutching onto Two PAIRS. We go to another deal.

Score: (120-116*)
Seeds: Twists [6804][13517][7547] Deal 2, Cut 3h (AGAIN!)
JQT : Pone = Keep (As 2c 5c 7d) and Toss (9s Th)
REX : Deal = Keep (Ac 5s 6h 8c) and Toss (6d Qc)
Tally: Pone 7 Points, Dealer 4 Points, Crib 2 Points

Pegging: A 8 2 6 7 5 (29=3) "go" A (30=1), 5 (5-1), Pone = 1, Dealer = 4

Another 3h was the Cut Card AGAIN, but it had no bearing on the game whatsoever, even though it occurred twice in a row! Did I hold the correct cards? Maybe not. Our primary task is to lead in such a way so as to produce that maximum number of scoring replies. Holding the 9 Card and leading a Deuce might have been better (covers a 4 Card Response), I'm not sure without more analysis. The Dealer can so easily obtain Four or Five Points before we wake up in the morning as Pone, especially if a Jack Cut occurs. Remember: Pone cannot score with the Lead Card!

Final Score (121-120*)

And BANG! Just like that, it's over! The 5 Card can "make or break" many an endgame for us. The important idea is to not panic early on and give up needless points, and it did look troublesome there for a moment, until we scored Last Card.
JQT says: The craziest endgame with this puzzle might occur if Pone is holding an almost-identical Hand, with 7-T-T and anything but an Ace as the fourth card, and Pone leads a Ten "T" Card after a 5 Card Cut, during which we go into what I call "Desperation Pegging" mode: (114*-111) (7 T T ?) vs (7 7 T T) Cut = 5: T (10) T! (20=2) T (30-7), 7 (7) 7 (14-2) 7 (21=6) Final Score (121*-120)! 🍡
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Great commentary. Much of what you had to say about holding the pairs was part of my rationale for holding the suited 6-7-10-J. Turns out that flush was an also-ran. Coeurdelion and HalscribCLX often select different solutions. Today they agreed on the pairs. Thanks for sharing your analysis and insight.
dec
6514 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:34 AM
If they get a below average count here we just might pull this off. Kept three mid cards to push counts into goes. The ten is an odds thing since we have two of them. Defense to the lead. After that lead watch their hand count it out. dec
sterno
509 votes

Joined: December 2020
Wednesday 4:42 AM
Ah.... at work and responding quickly (before coffee no less). Good puzzle. I tossed the pair of sevens to balance crib and hand. Good comments
wasa
3136 votes

Joined: November 2014
 
 
 
Wednesday 4:51 AM
I agree with RAS
MiketheExpert
1251 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:39 AM
Am I keeping the flush just for posterity's sake? Absolutely not! I need to have the most flexibility and think about any opening lead that pone can make here to try and trap me. First response could be critical, and having 4 different cards to choose from could only be in my best interest. The flush happens to be a nice side prize though. And based on this cut card, those 4 points could indeed be needed.
MiketheExpert says: As to fentesk's question, how do I respond to an 8-lead? I have JQT's "duck-call" exactly in mind for this purpose :)
MiketheExpert says: To be quite honest, an 8-lead here by pone would be rather surprising, even with me back at hole 114. But, as it turns out, quite effective with the hand I'm holding.
MiketheExpert says: Having two sets of "touchers" does have the appearance of being dangerous, but I don't have a low card among them, thus I am fully expecting to have the opening lead at some point during a subsequent round. Having different cards to choose from the opening lead could indeed be the SAFEST maneuver we can make as well.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Mike. Remind me of JQT's "duck-call" again please.
MiketheExpert says: Hi Inushtuk. I am indicating I would reply with my J to an 8 lead. This is in response to JQT's post from about a week ago when he indicated that with many hands an 8 lead by pone triggers a J response with many hands, in which it would seem to be the case more often than is mathematically probable. I happen to agree, as in many hands rather than respond with a dangerous mid-card (or a 10 face card), if holding a J, would often make this reply. This end game just happens to be a special case of this.
hecklebush
257 votes

Joined: February 2022
 
 
 
Wednesday 6:49 AM
I decided to keep 6-7-7-T - not a popular choice today. The 3 cut is of no help. CripPro results are 121-118: peg 1, 2 point hand, 4 point crib. Busy day - regular cribbage game shortly followed by a Pinochle tournament tonight.
Assman
127 votes

Joined: May 2024
 
 
 
Wednesday 7:32 AM
I’m flushed with excitement and looking to hold off pone.
Assman says: I’d respond to the 8 lead with the J. Of course.
asevenson
3018 votes

Joined: August 2011
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:08 AM
With RAS today.
Sgt Pegger
403 votes

Joined: July 2017
 
 
 
Wednesday 8:33 AM
The flush is the only way to go here in my mind. The pone cannot track us and trapping us in any way would be very difficult if we don't take the bait on anything they play.
zeke76
1517 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Wednesday 9:55 AM
What Ras said.
Coeurdelion
5711 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Wednesday 12:24 PM
We need to stop Pone scoring 10pts, so I'll play ultra-safe and it shouldn't be a problem for us to score 7pts with the pegging, hand and crib, if we get the chance the last two. I think its probably between 7-7-10-10 (6-J) and 6-7C-10C-J (7D-10S). 7-7-10-10 should peg well playing safe but the flush will be hard to read. I think I'll go for the two pairs to limit Pone's chance of pairing.
HalscribCLX
5440 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Wednesday 12:24 PM
At 114*-111 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Net
Optimal_____Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total___Win %___Loss %
6-7-7-J______4.15+0.96+4.66=9.77____48.2____51.8
6-7C-10C-J___5.87+0.85+2.85=9.57____47.6____52.4
7-7-10-10____4.96+0.20+3.33=8.49____58.1____41.9

6-7-7-J is best for expected averages but in this end of game board position Win/Loss %s are more important and 7-7-10-10 is best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. so I'll select 6-J to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

fentesk
1334 votes

Joined: January 2021
 
 
 
Wednesday 5:03 PM
I think this was how I held this in the game, mainly relying on the two pairs to keep pegging down. Past-me's comment about the 8 lead makes me think that is what happened and I doubt I would have asked if I had the J left in my hand.

Not sure what to make of Hal's agreement today as the bot chose Optimal pegging, while I would have been ultra defensive.

Thanks as always for the great discussion and insights.
JQT says: I performed a number of playouts while holding the Two PAIRS (7 7 T T), and was able to prevail and WIN by just a point or two in many of them. The 8 Card Lead by Pone is indeed the true test of this puzzle, and a Ten "T" Card reply from this hand seems best, and it is what Halscrib recommends. I would also respond with a Ten "T" Card after a 5 Card or 6 Card Lead; all other leads by Pone get a 7 Card Reply. As I indicated earlier however, after a 5 Card Cut, I might PAIR a Ten "T" Card Lead, since we're likely to then lose anyway. 🍧
fentesk says: Thanks JQT. I agree with your thoughts on the pegging, my goal is to limit runs as much as possible since it's something in my control. That means the 10 on the 8, and 5/6 as you suggest for this hold. I go back and forth on the 7 lead. We win if the respond to 7-7-7, but as pone, if you see dealer jump on (or slow play) your 7-7 (14) response and you had an A, they may just go that route and win with A-A-7-7 (though this may be too specific of an example to worry about).
JQT says: An Ace Lead by Pone at Hole 111 screams of a hand such as (A 4 4 X) so I would reply with a 7 Card. We were dealt two of these, so we should play the odds. If Pone has (A A 7 8), then it may cost us the game, but I think we've still done our best. The Cut Card can help us figure out Pone's intent sometimes. It can get very tricky: Pone might have (A 5 5 7) and get a 5 Card Cut, and still need to peg Three Holes, and we could see a 5 Card Lead! Pone possibly unknowingly makes us reply with a Ten "T" Card, and we might prevail. Might not. Very nice puzzle!