July 26, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by Ras2829
53-54*  ?
30%
30%
26%
26%
23%
23%
16%
16%
2%
2%
0%
0%
Total votes: 276
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (5911 votes)

Friday 3:09 AM
In this position getting to hole 60 is paramount. I'll hedge tossing 3-6. Elsewhere on the board I'd toss 6-10 and go for the 20. Things arent that dire yet.
Its been one crazy July so far.
Eolus619 says: Morning Gougie00…The well know cribbage fairy is alive and well in Raleigh. Posted on the ACC Facebook is the score card of Michael D’elene..Coventry, RI..Before lunch he won 9/10..after lunch won 2/10..
mrob2199

Joined: February 2009 (1522 votes)

Friday 3:40 AM
This is a good position to go for broke-a 10 to 12 point hand is always nice but in this particular spot it doesn’t do us a ton of good-the 4 cut would immediately put us in a great position-the 6-10 discard is a nice bonus as well
scottcrib says: I see you sneaking in as low qualifier. 😃
Eolus619 says: Posted on the ACC Facebook is the opening hand 0*-0 of Rob’s opponent ..His opponent’s six cards..5s…5h…6d…7h…7s…8s..does not say what the discard was …for extra credit what would you discard…No need to post an answer
dec says: I saw the posting. I take it the game was over . I am assuming Rob won that game and his opponent is questioning what they could have done . I went with the luck factor a dozen keep. dec
Eolus619 says: Clearly see you point dec..sacrificing four points to toss 7-8 or 5-8 not for me either
Eolus619 says: Rob has advanced to the final four today..🤞see how it goes
zeke76

Joined: August 2018 (1531 votes)

Friday 3:48 AM
Decided keeping the 10 wasn’t worth what i was throwing over. And ill take the lucky cut.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6559 votes)

Friday 3:52 AM
Defense with a big time hits possible here. Three of clubs lead here. dec
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4258 votes)

Friday 4:21 AM
Today, RAS sets us up on the 'quiet side' of Second Street, and deals us Two 🍐 🍐 PAIRS; and not just any PAIRS, but Treys and Fives! Say no more!

We can "take a chance" with Keep (3 3 5 5) and Toss (6 T), and be the benefactors of Eight Points or more after Thirty-One Cuts (2222, 33, 4444, 55, 7777, TTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), which is 31/46 equals 0.674 or what turns out to be a 67% or Two-Thirds of the Remaining Cards "Roll of the Dice"! It's not really "chance-taking" at all, it appears, especially with such a SAFE discard!

Those are frankly very good odds, considering that we have only Eleven Cuts (AAAA, 666, 8888) or 24% that are real losers, and of course after Four Cuts (4444) or nearly 9% of the time, we'll have Twenty Points!

Let's Toss (6 T) all day 🌞 long.

After the 7 Card Cut, well, you know the drill. We get a Dozen Holes. I'll tell you a little story about drills: Every year, all over the world, Black & Decker sells millions upon millions of drills. But nobody wants drills: What they want are 🕳 holes! And today, we shall score Twelve of them! Lead a Trey.

Wordle 1,133 4/6 (What do Houston and Toronto have in common?)

🟨⬛🟩⬛⬛
⬛⬛⬛🟩⬛
⬛⬛🟩🟩⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
JQT says: I would have no problem leading a 5 Card from (3 3 5 T), because a Magic Eleven in Cribbage is very often in actuality a Magic Twenty-One, especially when we are Pone. Thus 5 (5) X (15=2) T (25) "go" 3 (28) 3 (31-4)! Yet we cannot discard a 5 Card! But with (3 3 5 5), the three-card eleven of 3-3-5 is a bit inert, and we are frequently 'stuck' at making the Count become either Eighteen or Twenty after the Fifteen-Two has been scored, and thus I see many fewer ways to profit from this. Additionally, unless the Count can be pushed to Twenty-Two or higher, we are denied many of the "tricks of the trade" for setting up pegging traps. Therefore, I will lead a Trey from (3 3 5 5), and who knows; if the Dealer has (5 X X X) and is remiss and 'blows 🌋 a gasket,' we might even get to 'drop' our 5 Cards back-to-back in quick succession and out-peg the Dealer 10-to-1: 3 (3) X (13) 3 (16) 5? (21) 5 (26-2) "go" 5 (31-8)! 🤪 Ouch!
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4096 votes)

Friday 4:57 AM
I'd choose the 6 with the black 3 card.

All Ten #676
9/10
10✅ 9✅ 8✅ 7✅ 6✅ 5✅ 4✅ 3✅ 1✅ 2⬜

https://beastacademy.com/all-ten
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4269 votes)

Friday 5:07 AM
I want the open ended chance for the double run. Would like to get as close to 70 as possible for my need deal.
sterno

Joined: December 2020 (523 votes)

Friday 5:40 AM
two pairs are dealt on second street in a close game. I kept the pair of fives and broke the treys.
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1512 votes)

Friday 5:50 AM
Me thinks Ras’s admonition about not playing for a favorable cut does not apply to today’s puzzle..Trying to get all ten Pone points here. Start with six..28 cuts get me to at least eight ..tame(?) 3-6 across the board ..Rob, dec & JQT are deciding differently from me..hmmmm
MiketheExpert

Joined: April 2021 (1266 votes)

Friday 6:02 AM
Gutshot draw for 20 pts is not my main reason for keeping it this way today. In fact, whether on offense or defense I will hold the 3 3 5 5 if I can get a (6 10) in my opponent's crib.
MiketheExpert says: That 7 cut gives me a cool dozen, and I have no objections if we may try the 5 lead here, just to give us an extra chance on the pegging.
asevenson

Joined: August 2011 (3054 votes)

Friday 7:06 AM
I'm tossing the red 3 -6 to fake the flush. Not same suit to crib sp why not?
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (440 votes)

Friday 7:15 AM
I like Rob's reasoning and at first glance was subscribed to his path as well but then I "flipped a coin" and landed on this path.

If we miss the cut that would leave us with 4 pts and some possible pegging pts. If we keep the 6 pts, we still have the cards to get us over the hump and still eek out some peggers plus we have the 10 to get us out of a trap.

Whether we keep the 3,3,5,5 or the 3,5,5,10 it leaves us with a 61% chance of getting a favorable cut card because the A,6,8,9 cards do not help us. So, faced with the same odds either way..... why give up 2 pts for a "roll of the dice" on a potential huge pay out with 1 card?

On the other hand, cutting into a 12 or better with the 3,3,5,5 is attractive.
usacoder

Joined: August 2019 (1062 votes)

Friday 8:20 AM
I score the 6-10 toss at 6.96 while either 3 with the 6 gets 6.74. Almost too close to call. The 7 sure helped.

I see a 3-6 toss has the majority of votes.
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3165 votes)

Friday 9:07 AM
Decided to balk the crib with 6-T
31for14

Joined: May 2019 (763 votes)

Friday 9:13 AM
Need some luck here. Either a great cut or bad hand and crib for your opponent. Giving myself a chance for both.
Eolus619 says: oh my goodness…great to see you comment..plz continue !
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (169 votes)

Friday 10:26 AM
I like it this way...TGIF!
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5749 votes)

Friday 11:48 AM
I think it's between 5-5-6-10 (3-3)3-5-5-10 (3-6) and 3-3-5-5 (6-10):

5-5-6-10: 6pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.68) = -½pt

3-5-5-10: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.87) = +1pt

3-3-5-5: 4pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.31) = -¼pt

Potential:

5-5-6-10: Improves with 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 32 cuts = 32/46 = 69.6% up to 10/12/14/16pts with 4444, 55, 7777 + 15xXs = 25 cuts.

3-5-5-10: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 55, 7777 + 15xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12/14pts with 2222, 4444, 55, 7777 + 15xXs = 29 cuts.

3-3-5-5: Improves with 2222, 33, 4444, 55, 7777, 9999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/10/12/20pts with 2222, 33, 4444, 55, 7777 + 15xXs = 31 cuts.

Position:

Ideally we'd like to deal from 70pts or more as Dealer next hand. This 17pts+ away so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

With two low cards and two 5s plus a 3-card magic eleven I think 3-3-5-5 will peg best.

Summary:

3-5-5-10 is best for starting value by 1¼pt over 3-3-5-5 but 3-3-5-5 has most cuts for improvement and 31 cuts for 8-20pts compared to 21 cuts for 10-16pts with 5-5-6-10 and 29 cuts for 10-14pts with 3-5-5-10. Also I think 3-3-5-5 will peg better. In terms of hitting our target 5-5-6-10 has 4444, 55, 7777, 101010 = 13 cuts for 12/14/16pts. 3-5-5-10 has 55, 101010 = 5 cuts for 12/14pts. While 3-3-5-5 has 4444, 7777 = 8 cuts for 12/20pts. Even so I'll throw the lower scoring 6-10 to opponent's crib.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5477 votes)

Friday 11:48 AM
At 53-54* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W5 %____W6 %
3-3-5-5____8.35+1.96+(-3.98)=6.33____27.9____23.0
3-5-5-10___9.09+1.35+(-4.33)=6.11____28.8____24.2
5-5-6-10___9.48+1.39+(-6.35)=4.52____30.5____19.8

Offense______L5 %____L6 %
3-3-5-5_______42.7____57.8
3-5-5-10______43.3____57.1
5-5-6-10______52.4____61.8

3-3-5-5 is best for expected averages by 0.22pt. over 3-5-5-10. Although 3-5-5-10 is slightly best for Win %s and about equal for Loss %s as it's still early in the game I'll decide based on expected averages and select 6-10 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll lead a 3 and play Offense:

Lead____________Our Pegging Points
3_______________________1.76
5_______________________1.62
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5325 votes)

Friday 12:19 PM
Choosing offense to include the pegging points the way to hold the two pairs. Although 3-5-5-10 has the better potential hand score, holding four cards of high pegging value, and discarding the low-scoring 6-10 more than compensates for the larger hand with discarding 3-6. Lead the 3C and take any pegs offered. HalscribCLX analysis shows why 3-3-5-5 has a slight edge.
JQT says: Nice Puzzle, RAS! It would be very interesting to examine those Relative Scores at which we would NOT choose to Toss (6 T), as those I would think should be unique. Maybe at (113-114*) we might Keep (5 6 T T) and Toss (3 3) for example, since this produces the highest Expected Value of our Hand, at about 9.5 Points. Others can maybe try to find a score at which we might Toss (3 6) or Toss (3 T), if any exist! The best Defensive Pegging, according to Rex Crib, is after Toss (5 5)! Therefore, maybe at (118-118*), we should Keep (3 3 6 T) and Toss (5 5). If Hal was still releasing updates to his program, this is the kind of adjunct tool that I would be asking him to develop: show all the different hypothetical scores at which all other possible discards are viable candidates. It would simply require an iterative process to be performed on the existing data. It's so sad that the source code of the program is no longer in existence.
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Thanks and appreciate your additional thoughts. You know how much I value the contribution that Hal Mueller made to this wonderful game. Am deeply saddened that so many have missed out entirely on the wonders of his cribbage tutorials. Many of the commonly used cribbage programs are so inferior that average players win 60% of the time. Looking back, Bruce Bowman's "Cribbage Master" program of about two decades ago was superior to most of the offerings currently accessed.
JQT says: Tim Schempp did a marvelous job on Royal Cribbage 3.1 (a.k.a. Cribbage King), but an even older program is "Crib '97" by Craig Hessel, and it requires a Windows XP or prior Op Sys to run these. Hessel's program is one that I would really recommend to beginners or intermediate players, because it SAVES GAMES (even if you quit mid-game, it can recover!), and you can see an easy-to-decipher running tally of your statistics, and all of your games are saved and presented in a very logical manner that is as close to a Portable Game Notation as anything that exists today. Hal was coming very close with his Base64 format, and as far as readability, I still like Hal's translated (xlate) from his Halsware (proprietary fonts) to Courier, which resulted in a pseudo-ASCII format (it still required visual columns to line up to parse correctly, and it used various font colors to help readability). True PGN would be human-readable and scripting-tool-independent, and not depend on color, columnar layout, etc.). I've spent two decades trying to come up with a PGN format for Cribbage Game Files that could also be used for Game Entry (thus, some semblance of sequential order must be imposed and maintained) and that would support a machine-readable format from raw ASCII. Hal's Base64 would have done EVERYTHING except be usable for game entry. My analogy for this game entry process is like that of a Bowling Score, or a Golf Scorecard, or a Baseball Game Box Score, something you can fill out sequentially in real time as the game proceeds, and that captures every score, card, and play. For example, if you want to capture a particular deal, you first denote the score as (53-54*) for example, and now you need 13 variables to denote the card ranks, and 4 variables to append the suits, since 6 cards for each player, and 1 card for the cut. However, if we want to "capture" these during a game, we need to enter them sequentially when we see them (pegging), so Pone might have (3c 3h 5c 5s 6d Tc) as in today's puzzle, but since Pone would only "see" Dealer's cards during the pegging, we need to "fill these in" as they are played during the pegging, and either a third party human, or a program, or either player in the game needs to be able to do this with a LITTLE INTERRUPTION and time delay as possible. Then, each card gets logged during the "play" (pegging) and this can even become a "checksum" to double check the earlier hand entry (everything gets entered twice, so an accidental omission won't cause loss of game). Also, if both players are logging a game, the two scoresheets become an additional checksum to help capture the game (if 3h gets logged as 3d by mistake, it will show up wrong in one place, but correct in three places, so any entered errors can usually thus be self-corrected by human or machine). Same thing with scores, which get logged before and after the deal, giving some quasi-cyclic-redundancy to the process. Sorry about the length and technical jargon, but I hope this offers a glimpse into what maybe could one day become a Cribbage Game Machine and Human Readable File Entry Protocol. 🧁 ☕ 🍉
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1055 votes)

Friday 2:20 PM
I thought the same as asevenson.