July 27, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by Eolus619
71*-74  ?
36%
25%
19%
6%
5%
3%
1%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 240
Eolus619What do you do with the pair of fives? Does the Big Hand rule apply?
james500
4056 votes

Joined: June 2013
 
 
 
Saturday 3:09 AM
The six point A559 immediately catches the eye, but I'd like to try this arrangement instead.
Very fortunate with the cut of a 7.
MarktheShark
199 votes

Joined: January 2024
 
 
 
Saturday 3:35 AM
A-3 or 3-6? Both have the potential meld I need to not fall too far behind, so I will keep the better pegging hand.
MarktheShark says: 5-5 is tempting, but my style is to prefer pegging cards.
Gougie00
5870 votes

Joined: March 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 3:38 AM
Tossing 55 and hoping for a big payday in the crib
dec
6514 votes

Joined: April 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 4:33 AM
Keeping the 5-5 with the open ends. Pegging depends on the lead might be a few points there. Congrats Mike Fetchel nice write up in Cribbage World. dec
zeke76
1517 votes

Joined: August 2018
 
 
 
Saturday 4:35 AM
So many choices. I went with the straightforward play, but have little confidence in it.
fentesk
1334 votes

Joined: January 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 5:19 AM
Not being able to decide where I most wanted the 5s between hand and crib, I decided to do both. The final decider for me was this kept a strong two-card 11 (5-6) in hand. My second choice (A-3-6-9) doesn't have one.
JQT
4218 votes

Joined: October 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 6:25 AM
We are NOT "Ahead and Dealing" but we are very proudly "Dealing" from One Point Beyond the Third Street Par Hole 70; therefore, in spite of trailing our Opponent by Three Holes, we have an excellent Relative Position in this "Last Saturday in July" Cribbage Puzzle by Eolus619.

"Tell me more" you ask. With two Small Cards, two Middle Cards, and "save the best for last" two 5 Cards, we dealt ourselves an enterprising bunch, but no Runs or FLUSHES to be found (and I looked twice). 🤔

We could consider Toss (3 6), Toss (A 3), Toss (5 5), Toss (6 9), or even Toss (3 5)!

Toss (5 5) allows us to still retain Two Points in our Hand, so it's likely a strong contender.

Toss (3 6) seems natural, as we hold Six Points to start, but this (A 5 5 9) hand only grows significantly with a same-ranking Cut Card (AAA, 55, 999). This looks weak. 🙄

Keep (A 5 6 9) and Toss (3 5) is the "Sleeper" Idea today, as we begin with Four Points in our Hand, and we get a 5 Card into our Crib, so it's a balanced, hybrid approach. It does surprisingly well as it gets help after Forty-Two Cuts (AAA, 333, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 8888, 999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), and thus only Four Cuts (2222) fail to help us! 😎 Didn't see THAT one coming, did we?!

Let's Toss (3 5) today, and choose the VISINE OPTION: Get the 🚚 RED OUT, and be a real "snake in the 🐍 grass."

After the 7 Card Cut, we now have Seven Points in our Hand, with prospects for a good Crib.

Wordle 1,134 4/6 (losing my strength)

⬛⬛⬛⬛🟩
⬛⬛⬛🟨⬛
🟨⬛🟨⬛⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
JQT says: Note that (A 5 6 9) starts with just as many points as (5 5 6 9), and it will likely peg better, and in addition it gets a 5 Card into our Crib. The (A 3 5 6) hand will also ensure Four Points, since all cuts help, but Toss (5 9) is inferior to Toss (3 5). 💐
Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. I read with interest your comments in Ras's post yesterday. Specifically, if the score was 113-114*. You said 5-6-T-T toss (3-3). I think you meant 5-5-6-T, as we were only dealt one T. Still 5-5-6-T has many cuts that will put us out. And even if the cut is a fail, a 5 lead may go thus: 5(5)-X(15-2)-X(25)-GO-6(31-2). Although I don't think Dealer will be prone to keeping such a hand at that score Thoughts?
JQT says: Thanks for the correction! 🧁 The Dealer is often stuck with a difficult choice in such a position. Imagine either (114*-113) or (117*-118), if you are Dealer at those scores, what cards do you WANT TO GET? It probably varies among different players. Maybe defend at (114*-113) as Dealer with something like (2 2 2 6) or some such, but then a 4 Card Lead ruins your day! Most players will just accept it as fate, since winning depends upon what Pone is dealt, but we should at least have some preference. At (117*-118) of course, we are trying to peg out as the Dealer, so (A A 5 6) may be good. Even at Hole 118, Pone is forced a bit to hold enough to go out if no pegging, and this will often WEAKEN Pone's pegging options just slightly, say Pone decides to Keep (4 T J Q) and Toss (6 9) or Pone is dealt (A 2 3 5 5 8), it's interesting how to optimize such a hand as Pone whether at (113-114*) or at (118-117*). Needing Four Holes to WIN is almost an entirely different task as opposed to needing Three Holes, and so on. In Cribbage Endgames, whether we are Dealer or Pone, we should always be thinking about how the score AND the Cut Card might be *forcing* some imposition onto our Opponent, and contributing toward an Opponent making a possible sub-optimal discard or play during the pegging! 🍬
Assman
127 votes

Joined: May 2024
 
 
 
Saturday 6:42 AM
Ditto.
RubyTuesday
1024 votes

Joined: January 2019
 
 
 
Saturday 7:14 AM
I was going to throw 3 6, but looked at the discard tables and decided that 3 5 should gain me more points than I’d lose.
Jazzselke
2678 votes

Joined: March 2009
 
 
 
Saturday 7:19 AM
Holding no face cards its tempting to throw the nickels, but I do like the fact that A569 is helped by all but the 2 as detailed by JQT, and still sneaking a 35 into the crib.
MiketheExpert
1251 votes

Joined: April 2021
 
 
 
Saturday 7:51 AM
This was the 4th option I found today after looking at (3 6), (A 3), and (5 5). I think this position calls for a balanced approach, with most cuts helping for both hand and crib, while maintaining a (5 6) magic-11 in the hand for pegging. Sometimes the best choice is not the most apparent, and in a fast-paced game I probably would have chosen to discard (A 3) among the remaining options.
Eolus619
1471 votes

Joined: June 2020
 
 
 
Saturday 7:54 AM
Thanks to all for your comments..This has been in the que’ for so long I am fuzzy about my choice. I do recall deciding the big hand rule did not apply. AND.. I believe I split the 5s..but I doubt I had the quality of reasons JQT has given.
Ras2829 says: Hi Eolu619: Fine puzzle and has good application to play as this or similar seems to show quite often. Big Hand Rule does not apply as remaining cards are a longways from a potential 12 points.
Eolus619 says: Thx Ras❗️❗️❗️
asevenson
3018 votes

Joined: August 2011
 
 
 
Saturday 9:44 AM
Went with the 5-5 to crib
Inushtuk1
1610 votes

Joined: July 2016
 
 
 
Saturday 10:17 AM
On offense this is a *slightly* better pegger than 5-5-6-9
MarktheShark says: I agree that taking pegs safely often depends on your opponent. My experience is that 5-5-6-9 is more productive. Is there good explanatory pegging data somewhere that I can download from a website?
Jazzselke says: Mike, I approved you yesterday for the ACC site! Didn't think too long...
Inushtuk1 says: I was interrupted It has the Magic 11, as well as the Sweet Sixteen of A-6-9. We can choose to do the mid card exchange thing, and give up 3 to get 4 plus the A(31-2). Or we can use the A-6-9 to score the (31-2), and give up zero if Pone leads an 8, or a 7 and we play our Ace from the Sweet Sixteen, and he follows with the complementary mid-card.
Ras2829
5285 votes

Joined: November 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 10:57 AM
Choosing offense at hole 71, got to play the A-5-6-9 with 3-5 discard. Once seeing the starter card 7, knowing that it is of help to hand + crib, will exercise a bit of caution on the pegging. As in an offense pegging strategy, would play the five on a X-pointer and hope to close the count with the 6 for 31-2 and score 15-2 on a 6/9 lead. Will not pair an Ace lead and drop that lone Ace second card played if looks reasonably safe to do so. Don't be overly cautious on pegs except for that lone small card as 2-4 pegs could be of great benefit to dealer.
Coeurdelion
5711 votes

Joined: October 2007
 
 
 
Saturday 1:05 PM
I think it's between A-5-5-9 (3-6), 5-5-6-9 (A-3), A-5-6-9 (3-5) and A-3-6-9 (5-5):

A-5-5-9: 6pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 10pts

5-5-6-9: 4pts + 4¼pts (Schell: 4.52) = 8¼pts

A-5-6-9: 4pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 10pts

A-3-6-9: 2pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 10¾pts

Potential:

A-5-5-9: Improves with AAA, 4444, 55, 666, 999 + 16xXs = 31 cuts = 31/46 = 67.4% up to 10/12/14pts with AAA, 55, 999 + 16xXs = 24 cuts.

5-5-6-9: Improves with AAA, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 999 + 16xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 8/10/14pts with all cuts.

A-5-6-9: Improves with AAA, 333, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xxs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 7/8/9/10pts with AAA, 4444, 55, 666, 7777, 999 = 19 cuts.

A-3-6-9: Improves with AAA, 2222, 333, 55, 666, 8888, 999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 6/7/8pts with 2222, 333, 55, 666, 999 = 15 cuts.

Position:

We're 1pt past 3rd street positional hole and Pone is 12pts short of where they'd like to be so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

I think all the hands will peg well. Three have a magic eleven and A-3-6-9 has two low cards and two middle cards. I think A-5-6-9 will peg best.

Summary:

A-3-6-9 is best for starting value by ¾pts over A-5-6-9 and A-5-5-9 but it has the fewest cuts for improvement and only 15 cuts for 6-8pts. A-5-5-9 has 24 cuts for 10-14pts while 5-5-6-9 has all 35 of its improvement cuts for 8-14pts while A-5-6-9 has a high number of cuts for improvement and 19 cuts for 7-10pts. It also may peg best. So I think I'll throw 3-5 to my box.
HalscribCLX
5440 votes

Joined: February 2008
 
 
 
Saturday 1:05 PM
At 71*-74 playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____W3 %____W4 %
A-5-6-9____6.78+3.72+6.01=16.51____12.2____49.1
A-3-6-9____3.83+3.13+8.77=15.73____11.9____45.7
5-5-6-9____7.83+3.61+4.27=15.71____12.1____44.8
A-5-5-9____8.83+3.15+3.48=15.46____10.8____45.5
A-3-5-9____4.78+3.61+6.56=14.95_____8.9____41.5

Offense______L3 %____L4 %
A-5-6-9_______8.8_____30.1
A-3-6-9_______8.9_____32.5
5-5-6-9_______9.2_____33.0
A-5-5-9_______7.6_____31.3
A-3-5-9_______9.4_____36.7

A-5-6-9 is best for expected averages by 0.78pt.a nd is appreciably best for Win %s and slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select a 3-5 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.