Sunday 3:09 AM

KA must be better in the crib than K9, but I'd prefer my hand had two fives in it than two Kings.

Wordle 1,135 4/6

⬛⬛⬛🟨⬛
🟨⬛🟩⬛🟨
🟩⬛🟩⬛🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

All Ten #678
10/10
1✅ 9✅ 3✅ 4✅ 5✅ 8✅ 6✅ 7✅ 10✅ 2✅
https://beastacademy.com/all-ten

Sunday 3:28 AM

As dealer of hand one, it is defense. That means retain A-A-4-K and discard suited 9-K, play off the lead. Would, pair an Ace if led though and score 15-2 on a five lead. Not much more to say. Discarding 9-K and K-K are quite close even so because of the appallingly low score of 9-K to own crib.

Sunday 3:29 AM

Easy peasy.

Sunday 3:33 AM

I will do the six keep this way . This one a tick away from the other two but still defense and crib has a little better of a chance. dec

Sunday 4:14 AM

Hmm. I'll keep my 6 with the shot for 10 or 12. Lets hold AA to parlay for 3 pts.

What isnt on fire in Western USA and Canada? I hope rain is in your forecast.

Sunday 4:39 AM

We have a combined, known starting tally of Six Points after Toss (9 K), Toss (A 9), or Toss (K K). What to do?

In a specific Pegging Scenario at the 'other' end of the board, I might Toss (K K), but at this end I don't believe such an idea maximizes our overall potential. Toss (K K) might obtain a slightly better Crib Value, but I doubt we will recoup as much as those Two Points we relinquish in the Hand.

On an open board at an even score, I would likely Toss (9 K), but as First Dealer with the 'Dealer Advantage,' it's probably better to be more protective of our Positional Advantage and Toss (A 9).

Toss (9 K) hovers (🐕‍🦺 Rovers?) near that Three Point "Crib Poison" or "bargain basement" level action in our Crib, and it should therefore be avoided if possible. Today, it is possible to avoid.

This puzzle is a good example of an instance in which it costs us nothing to throw 👔 SUITED cards, whether we Toss (As 9s) or Toss (9s Ks), so in either case we can seek that very rare Five-Card Crib FLUSH. Let's explore this issue a bit.

In fact, a good, four-part, two question Bonus Quiz that could accompany today's puzzle might ask: What's the Maximum Crib Score we could obtain after UNSUITED Toss (9s Kc) and Toss (Ah 9s); that is, if we FORGET to place same-suited cards in our Crib?

And then, let's examine what's the Maximum Crib Score we could obtain after Toss (9s Ks) and Toss (As 9s); that is, if we REMEMBER to place same-suited cards in our Crib?

Let's Toss (As 9s) today, and try to get the best of both Hand and Crib worlds. After the 7 Card Cut, nobody is happy! But Cribbage is not about Happiness, and you already knew this. Cheer Up!

- - -

Pop Quiz Answers 🎈 Maximum Crib After:

Toss (9s Kc) = (9s Kc 5 5) Cut 5 = Fourteen Points
Toss (Ah 9s) = (Ah 9s 5 5) Cut 5 = Fourteen Points
Toss (9s Ks) = (9s Ks Js Qs) Cut 5s = Fifteen Points
Toss (As 9s) = (As 9s Ts Js) Cut 5s = Fifteen Points

The important takeaway from this Pop Quiz is not that remembering same-suits can give us an extra point in the Crib today; what's important is that it costs us NOTHING (it is "free") to throw these same-suited cards. But there's more.

Most importantly, those "Monster 👾 Cribs" are a lot easier to get if we throw same-suited cards, i.e., Pone is much more likely to throw SUITED Toss (Js Qs) or Toss (Ts Js) than Toss (5 5)! In Summary: Crib FLUSHES are indeed RARE, but wishing for Toss (5 5) from Pone is much rarer! 🥩

Wordle 1,135 3/6 (protective uniformity)

🟩⬛⬛⬛⬛
🟨⬛🟩🟨⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Sunday 5:37 AM

I will reluctantly throw the "crib poison" (9 K) suited here on first hand. (K K) is probably too weak a pair to sacrifice those starting 2 points in hand even so, as well that (A 9) is not enough stronger in order to remove one of the fives from (A A 4) from my hand. Playing a defense strategy, this seems like the overall highest combined value by a nose, even with such a weak throw...but it is almost too close to call.

Sunday 5:40 AM

I wish I’d thought of keeping both kings in my hand, throwing 4 9 rather than 9 K. But I didn’t.

Sunday 5:43 AM

After a few days out of the country, I’ve found my way back to CHOD! Keeping it a bit differently than the rest of the commenters so far, but tossing K-K maintains the 6 points we start with keeping the other suggested hands so far.

I would like to retain the A-A-9 to try and score 4 pegs here, as this hand presents the opportunity. I also don’t see a whole lot of difference in the hand + crib value when keeping it this way vs the others, except that a 4 cut only yields me 8+2 while keeping A-A-4-K or A-4-K-K with a 4 cut would yield a dozen. I will take my chances trying to peg a couple today!

Sunday 6:01 AM

Holding AA49 to throw KK reduces the potential of the hand too significantly IMO. And A9 is no bargain to hold A4KK. So I will bite the bullet and toss K9.

Sunday 6:34 AM

9-K or K-K? Hand values and pegging values are very close. More upside potential to K-K.

Sunday 9:08 AM

What is one of the most tossed cards to our crib by the pone? ....a King! So, I am hopefully tossing my 2 kings to join the party in the crib with the 10,K the pone gave us. Any 10 cut on the deck would help us. We will also likely grab some pegging points with the 9,A,A combination. I'd love to see a 10 lead by the pone.

Sunday 12:27 PM

I went this way. Oh look; I have a Sweet Sixteen, as well as a two card Magic Eleven. Could the pegging go thus: *(8)-K(18)-7(25)-4(29)-GO-A(30)-A-(31-4).? Or is that more "pie in the sky" than those keeping A-A-4-9 and, X(10)-9(19)-X(29)-A(30)-GO-A(31-4)? And the latter risks giving up 3 holes if Pone leads a 10, or a J. And we're supposed to be playing defense at 0*-0. What do I know?

Sunday 1:20 PM

A straight choice between A-A-4-KC (9-KS) and A-A-4-9 (K-K)?:

A-A-4-KC: 6pts + 3pts (Schell: 3.06) = 9pts

A-A-4-9: 4pts + 4¾pts (Schell: 4.58) = 8¾pts

Potential:

A-A-4-KC: Improves with AA, 3333, 444, 5555, 999 + 14xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 10/12pts with AA, 444 + 14xXs = 19 cuts.

A-A-4-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 444, 5555, 6666, 999 + 14xXs = 34 cuts = 34/46 = 73.9% up to 8/12pts with AA, 444, 5555, 999 + 14xXs = 26 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is at 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to score the averages 16pts or more.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg well but with a 3-card magic eleven A-A-4-9 will peg better.

Summary:

A-A-4-KC is better for starting value by ¼pt but A-A-4-9 has more cuts for improvement and 26 cuts for 8/12pts compared to 19 cuts for 10/12pts with A-A-4-KC. However A-A-4-KC has 7 cuts (AA, 444, KK) for 12pts compared to only two cuts with A-A-4-9 (AA) so I think I'll throw the suited 9-K.

Sunday 1:20 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
AH-4-K-K___7.78+(-1.89)+3.37=9.26____32.7____47.3
A-A-4-KC___8.43+(-2.30)+3.03=9.16____34.9____47.7
A-A-4-9____6.78+(-2.39)+4.51=8.90____34.3____47.0

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
AH-4-K-K______24.5____26.0
A-A-4-KC______27.3____26.6
A-A-4-9_______27.4____27.2

AH-4-K-K is best for expected averages by 0.10pt. and although A-A-4-KC is appreciably best for Win %s AH-4-K-K is lowest for Loss %s so I'll select the suited A-9 to discard.

After the 7 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Sunday 2:10 PM