July 29, 2024
32% 32% | |||||
31% 31% | |||||
19% 19% | |||||
7% 7% | |||||
5% 5% | |||||
3% 3% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
Total votes: 298 |
Inushtuk1 | From a Crib Pro Daily Scrimmage Game |
Joined: February 2009 (1533 votes) Monday 3:04 AM
Keep the double run-the 5-8 is probably the most innocuous discard from this fraught with peril hand Jazzselke says: Good luck to Rob, in the Finals of the National Open. Eolus619 says: Rob DID IT..Hail to the now two time champ Eolus619 says: whoops for the 3rd time ..yikes Eolus619 says: miss read Facebook info…..he has now won it twice and has become only the 3rd two time champ |
Joined: June 2013 (4119 votes) Monday 3:12 AM
Interesting puzzle Mike, 6-8 or 5d-8 both seem reasonable.
Only just: Cribbage Pro Scrimmage 29th Jul 2024 🏆Score: 121 to 120 🌋SP: 1425 📅Streak: 3 https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/198/3333658/1 |
Joined: October 2008 (4282 votes) Monday 3:15 AM
Trailing by Ten Points on a Monday Morning as Pone in this puzzle contributed by Inushtuk1, we find ourselves only halfway down First Street, mosquito-bitten, with holes in our wet socks, and we are perhaps like that guy who sings, "Nobody Knows When You're Down and Out" in the blues standard song with the same name, written by pianist Jimmie Cox in 1923.
https://youtu.be/626pNZB8xXE But Wait! We've been dealt three 5 Cards and a lovely three-card 6-7-8 Run! Shouldn't this help us? It's too much. We need to return two of these cards like recycled glass bottles to the Dealer's Crib. This arrangement proves that old adage of mine: "Good Cards Win Cribbage Games; Great Cards do NOT!" Mike says this puzzle comes from his Crib Pro Scrimmage Game, and that word "scrimmage" reminds me of my football years, those days in the early 1970s that preceded my half-century of headaches and neuralgia and daily pain medication. Our Team Captain had the brilliant idea of scheduling "Three-a-Day" practices that would occur in August, BEFORE the season even got started in early September. This meant that in the August heat, without coaches, we would gather for football practice very early in the morning, and go hard until about 10:30 a.m., then break for lunch and meet up later about 1 p.m. and now, in the mid-day Summer Sun, we'd practice again for a few hours, light pads and helmets, until around 4 p.m. And then after dinnertime, we would have our third practice of the day, from around 6 p.m. until, you know, I don't ever remember anymore! But it was like being in the military! And fifty years later, I do a similar grind studying Cribbage! Kids just don't get the discipline these days, do they? Cell phones and fidget spinners could be the end of society. Those summer practices were brutal, and all orchestrated before the official season began. But by the time our coaches saw us, we had already constructed a team. We could: Toss (6 8), Toss (5 8), Toss (6 7), or Toss (7 8), and while I am no fan of any of this savagery, I do tend to prefer these in the order listed. The highest Expected Average, which is around a Dozen and a Half Points, comes after Toss (7 8), but this unleashes a Crib Value of nearly Seven Points into the Dealer's Crib, which would seem to nearly negate the value of such a Hand in the first place, unless we were to obtain one of those superlative Seven Cut Cards (4444, 777) that yield a Triple Run. And what are the odds of this happening? Around 15% as it turns out; we have similar odds at Russian Roulette! (I know, I'm confusing the "good" and the "bad" with the "ugly" but I do that sometimes, and I count on the reader to figure it all out.) Toss (5 8) is the "Middle of the Road" idea today, and it's just sad, isn't it: People always seem to want the Front of the Bus, the Back of the Church, and the Middle of the Road, but I digress. This idea would 'bust up' the three 5 Cards, and send one of these packing 'over the board' away for summer camp. On the opposite end of the spectrum is Toss (6 8), and while this does produce a Crib Value close to Five Points, it's the LOWEST Crib Value we will find! I think it's the best way to navigate these treacherous and murky waters. Let's proceed carefully, construct some sort of team, and Toss (6 8) today. 🍰 ☕ After the Trey Cut, whoopie, we now have Fourteen Points in our Hand, and with any luck, there will be little in the Enemy Crib. Those who risked Toss (7 8) now must worry what might happen in the Crib! But at least none of us needs to worry about the occurrence of a Twenty-Four-Point Crib! Pegging Roulette: Let the Dealer point to one of our cards, and then Lead It! If it's a 5 Card, the Dealer will soon maybe think we have ALL FOUR OF THEM! Wordle 1,136 5/6 (prime marketing term) 🟩⬛⬛⬛🟨 🟩⬛🟨⬛🟩 🟩⬛⬛🟩🟩 🟩⬛⬛🟩🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 |
Joined: March 2008 (5936 votes) Monday 3:29 AM
I swung for the fences and missed. The bipolar cribbage fairy needs a dose of medication. Or I do. |
Joined: April 2008 (6583 votes) Monday 3:34 AM
I kept eight points without discarding two to their crib. A face card cut might be the ticket here perhaps. Leading the seven do not want to see a four or eight response. dec |
Joined: January 2010 (290 votes) Monday 4:35 AM
Nice draw! |
Joined: June 2020 (1534 votes) Monday 5:29 AM
When Liam lists his 15 “best” n/d discard options & 13 involve sending a five..you know you have been “wrong footed” by your six dealt cards ..and take a look …by board position too. We all use four things when deciding cribbage plays..1) cribbage stats 2) experience 3) guides/ axioms developed by us or others 4) card intuition. Keeping 5-5-6-7 gets cut help from 42/46 cards & 11 of those give it at least 16. In the past, discarding 6-8 has for me been frequently disastrous..sending a five with an A..2..8..9 less so. After reading the comments..still not sure what THE “go too” answer is
Eolus619 says: upon further review ..it is 7 not 11 cut cards that get this keep to 16+.. |
Joined: November 2014 (3182 votes) Monday 5:32 AM
don't want to toss 7-8 on first street. 5-8 was tempting, but I'd prefer to keep 8 points without tossing a 5.
Cribbage gods favoured me today. Yay! |
Joined: May 2024 (193 votes) Monday 5:50 AM
🫠 |
Joined: March 2014 (542 votes) Monday 5:55 AM
It’s not often I’m disappointed with 8 points but I was hoping for a 4 or 7. Oh well. I really thought about keeping the 7. |
Joined: July 2017 (463 votes) Monday 6:12 AM
Bingo! |
Joined: April 2024 (206 votes) Monday 6:24 AM
Keeping the double run today. Hurts to break up my 5-5-5 but I’m not willing to discard points to the dealer’s crib, given that dealer frequently tosses 7-8 to their own crib. 5-5-6-7 feels like the best of both worlds today, where 5-8 isn’t as risky as some other throws (I hold both a 6 and a 7 in my hand) but I still keep cards that have upside. Cut gives us 12 today! fentesk says: I wasn't sure from your write-up, but just in case you weren't aware, sending a 5, or cards that add to 5 (A-4, 2-3) guarantee the crib will have points. The 5 may not be part of those points, but a hand with a 5 can't be worth zero so many would consider sending 5-8 as discarding points. 5-8 was my second choice (I went 6-8 today) so I only intend this as a potential FYI and not that I think you're doing anything wrong! |
Joined: November 2008 (5349 votes) Monday 6:34 AM
Choosing offense to include the pegging, less crib score moves 7-8 out of contention as a discard. In fact, would have chosen 5-8 or 6-7 in preference to the 7-8. Since have 3 fives, will lead a five, willing to give up a 15-2, drop the 2nd five for count of 20, dealer might pair for count of 25. That would be a nifty 6 pegs plus likely "go". If you think none of that will happen, lead the 7. What other choice is there? Ras2829 says: Wise to be wary of the 7-8 discard to opponent most anywhere on the board. That power-laden duo scores 8 or more points 49.453% of the time and nearly 20% of those are 12 or more. Only 5-5 and 2-3 in that order produce larger crib scores to opponent. Sure, it could score only 2 points. It does that 15.891% Little more than 1/6! |
Joined: July 2016 (1664 votes) Monday 7:05 AM
Folks I have a confession to make. This *was* from a Crib Pro Daily Scrimmage Game. That *was* the score. But it was actually reversed. I was the Dealer in the actual game. But it seemed a more difficult choice for n/d if *s/he* had been dealt these cards. I think at -20/+6 I will choose defense and toss (6-8). Lead a 5. Btw; in the actual game I tossed myself (7-8). Jazzselke says: Tried the Daily Scrimmage. Crazy that some players will enter it a dozen times or more to keep getting a better spread and ranking. Don't see the value in that myself. |
Joined: March 2009 (2715 votes) Monday 7:21 AM
Prefer the 68 vs 58 at this point; find it difficult to give up the chance for 14 with any face card cut. |
Joined: August 2011 (3076 votes) Monday 7:48 AM
Arg. |
Joined: April 2021 (1266 votes) Monday 7:52 AM
It's a virtual toss-up for me between discarding the (5 8) and (6 8). I'm a little too reluctant to break up the triple-5 combo and split my earnings here on all those X-cards. We are in a position where it is most important I believe to hold dealer back as best we can, and neither the toss of a five or the keep of the double-run is well suited for this, but unfortunately we have a lack of good options. I'll do my best with the "safest" toss of (6 8). Almost as best as we could do with the trey cut giving our hand 14 pts. Let's lead from our triple threat one of the 5's, both for potential pegs as well as an effort to limit the damage. MiketheExpert says: In the back of a mind, I'm worried about the "miss" of a 7 cut, or one of those showing up the crib, which is what makes it tough for me. But there are only 3 7's out there, and a whole bunch of face cards that I have seen none of, so this would have to be the odds on play. |
Joined: October 2007 (3279 votes) Monday 8:10 AM
Really 72%. It doesn't matter which 5 you throw, except don't give a flush in the crib. Great fun at Durham last weekend. Saw great play and sportsmanship. If you want to know about that Email me. |
Joined: January 2024 (262 votes) Monday 9:14 AM
5-8 or 6-8? Hand scores and pegging should be about the same. More upside to 6-8. |
Joined: January 2019 (1075 votes) Monday 10:33 AM
I’d like to keep the double run, and the three 5s and not throw a 5 or 7 8 to my opponent’s crib. I settled on 6 8 as the least bad throw from this hand (I don’t think it’s possible to make a good throw here). The turn up was pleasing. |
Joined: October 2007 (5765 votes) Monday 12:51 PM
I'll consider 5-5-5-7 (6-8) and 5C-5-6-7 (5-8):
5-5-5-7: 8pts - 5½pts (Schell: 5.86) = 2½pts 5C-5-6-7: 8pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.30) = 1½pts Potential: 5-5-5-7: Improves with 3333, 5, 666, 777, 888 + 16xXs = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 14/17/20pts with 3333, 5, 666 + 16xXs = 24 cuts. 5C-5-6-7: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 5, 666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/16/17pts with 3333, 4444, 5, 666, 777, 888 + 16xXs = 34 cuts. Position: We're behind by 10pts on the board and positionally at a disadvantage too. So I'll play Offense to try to catch up. Pegging: Playing Offense I think 5c-5-6-7 will peg better. Summary: 5-5-5-7 is better for starting value by 1pt (although Schell puts this at 0.44pt.). However, 5C-5-6-7 has more cuts for improvement and 34 cuts for 12-17pts compared to 24 cuts for 14-20pts with 5-5-5-7. Also I think 5C-5-6-7 will peg better. As Schell puts the difference at less than ½pt I think 5C-5-6-7 may well catch up 5-5-5-7 so I'll throw an unsuited 5-8. |
Joined: February 2008 (5496 votes) Monday 12:51 PM
At 14-24* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________Our Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total____W7 %___W8 % 5-5-5-7____11.72+1.15+(-4.77)=8.10_____8.5____13.2 5C-5-6-7___12.11+1.17+(-5.850=7.43_____9.4____11.7 5-5-5-8____11.13+0.89+(-4.87)=7.15_____7.5____12.3 Offense_______L7 %___L8 % 5-5-5-7________32.8___57.8 5C-5-6-7_______37.7___62.8 5-5-5-8________32.8___58.4 5-5-5-7 is best for expected averages by 0.67pt. over 5C-5-6-7 and is slightly best for Win %s. It is also considerably lower than 5C-5-6-7 for Loss %s so I'll select the 6-8 to discard. After the 3 cut I'll lead a 5 and play Offense: Lead_____________Our Pegging Points 5_______________________0.91 7_______________________0.78 Eolus619 says: Rob has won the National Open for the 2nd time..Congrats!!!!!!!! Eolus619 says: whoops 3rd time ..yikes Eolus619 says: miss read Facebook info…..he has now won it twice and has become only the 3rd two time champ |