Tuesday 3:08 AM

Obviously K-10 to our own crib is not our dream discard but from this position might as well sell out for the 5 or 8 cut-If we keep the flush the K-6 is no bonanza either

Tuesday 3:08 AM

It's important to understand our Relative Position before we get busy looking at our cards. We are the Dealer sandwiched in between the Third Street Par Hole 70 and the Fourth Street Par Hole 96, a sort-of "No Person's Land" and our fate largely depends upon what occurs 'over the board' with our Opponent.

Pone is just Nine Points 'shy' of that coveted, aforementioned Fourth Street Par Hole 96, and therefore has an enviable position.

We have a 💖 FLUSH (6h 7h 9h Th) with Six Points to start after Toss (6d Kc), or we can hold Six Points with 6-6-9 and either Toss (T K) or Toss (7 K).

Those are all rather 'dull' Dealer Discards, and it's a bit discouraging when Toss (7 K) is the more optimistic choice of the bunch!

The FLUSH (6h 7h 9h Th) idea gets us Ten or more points after Fourteen Cuts (5555, 66, 8888, 999, Jh), and the "Wanna-Be Double Run" (6 6 7 9) idea gets us Ten or more points after Seventeen Cuts (2222, 5555, 66, 8888, 999).

Checking my calculator and abacus, Seventeen is indeed greater than Fourteen, and yet this improved possible outcome is fairly well-disguised in this puzzle by horus93, who we hope is doing well. The positive aspects that he brought to the group can still be appreciated in such a clever, positional puzzle.

Another interesting way to go about composing such a puzzle might be to ask, "Show me a Dealer Hand from which you can end up with choosing to place the lowest Discard Average of Toss (T K) into our Crib in which it is not the obvious discard." Let's retain the "broken pieces" of the possible Double Run today and Toss (T K).

After the 9 Card Cut, we snagged a Dozen Points, so with any further luck, maybe we can 'crawl' back into this game. We'll likely end this Taco Tuesday Deal where we would normally have liked starting from, but we're possibly in the process of turning this game around. 🌮 🧃

Tuesday 3:10 AM

The flush could be good but the associated K6 isn't, especially with another 6 and a 9 out of circulation. I'll try K7 instead.
Nice puzzle Horus.

Tuesday 3:35 AM

I kept the 6679 to prevent an 8 cut. (success!) But the 667 is helped by a 2,3,or 5 as well.

Raining again here in northern Massachusetts. I wish we could bottle it up and drop it on Oregon and Calif.

Tuesday 4:09 AM

And the 6-6-9 with either another six or nine. Did peggers get mentioned yet? Rob keeps rolling well done champ. dec

Tuesday 4:44 AM

Amen.

Tuesday 4:49 AM

It pays to flush. I would much rather have 6-K in my crib (Schell 3.13) instead of a T-K (Schell 2.84). Will the flush peg better? Many say so

Tuesday 4:50 AM

It looks like I'm giving myself a terrible discard today, so the choice is which one (I'm guessing this was intentional). It takes the sting of K-10 out a bit knowing my other choices are nearly as bad. I'll keep my 6 points this way with chances for a big cut.

Tuesday 4:55 AM

Need a favorable cut ..5-6-7-8-9 …two goals …reach 96+ after this hand & slow current n/d from achieving the cycle….110*-113.

Tuesday 5:27 AM

Sometimes the crib just gets what is left over.

Tuesday 5:53 AM

Choosing offense to include the pegging, the 6-6-7-9 stands out although holding the flush is very close in combined value. Playing these middle cards, will take any pegs offered. Likely n/d will have cards other than middle of the deck. Will jump on a mid-card lead although will not pair a 7. Would play the 9 on a 7 lead. Otherwise, would score 15-2 or pair as in the case of the sixes.

Tuesday 7:17 AM

👍🏽👍🏽

Tuesday 7:18 AM

Tuesday 7:32 AM

Hate throwing (10 K), but the energy wrapped up in the double-run potential and other mid-card cuts (6 or 9) would be cut severely in order to throw a crib toss which is not much better in (6 K) or (7 K). A dozen points on the cut and now I am playing cautious offense on the pegs. Would not pair a 7 lead, however I would a 6 lead, and 15-2 an 8 or 9 lead.

Tuesday 8:29 AM

I finally broke my 1.5 year slump while at the Open. Won the Friday night sattelite, and qualified in 2 events. Thanks to this site for everyone's perspective on crib tosses, and why. was good to see some of you there!

Tuesday 8:32 AM

I always hold the flush apart from the other 2 cards and then make those 2 cards justify not keeping the flush. Today, they could not. Also, we have better pegging opportunities with the flush and it's much more difficult for the pone to track us during that pegging phase.

Tuesday 12:01 PM

Difficult decision today but chose to flush. Lots of good reasons to toss the dreaded 10-K today though!

Tuesday 3:10 PM

I'll look at 6H-7-9-10 (6D-K), 6-6-7-9 (10-K) and 6-6-9-10 (7-K):

6H-7-9-10: 6pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.13) = 9¼pts

6-6-7-9: 6pts + 3pts (Schell: 2.84) = 9pts

6-6-9-10: 6pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.26) = 9¼pts

Potential:

6H-7-9-10: Improves with 2222, 5555, 66, 777, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 9/10/11/13pts with 5555, 66, 8888, 999, JJJJ = 17 cuts. Plus 9 hearts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

6-6-7-9: Improves with 2222, 3333, 5555, 66, 777, 8888, 999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 10/12/16pts with 2222, 5555, 66, 8888, 999 = 17 cuts.

6-6-9-10: Improves with 3333, 5555, 66, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 9/12pts with 66, 8888, 999, JJJJ = 13 cuts.

Position:

Pone only needs 9 points to reach 4th street positional hole so I'll play Defense to try to hold them back.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think the flush will be best and harder to read.

Summary:

6H-7-9-10 and 6-6-9-10 both start with 9¼pts but the flush also has an extra 0.20pt for a heart cut. The flush has most cuts for improvement and 17 cuts for 9-13pts while 6-6-7-9 has 17 cuts for 10-16pts. However with the better starting value, heart cut potential, better pegging and more cuts for improvement I'll keep the flush and throw 6D-K.

Tuesday 3:10 PM

At 84*-87 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____W2 %___W3 %
6-6-7-9____8.70+(-2.15)+2.82=9.37_____2.7____23.5
6h-7-9-10__8.37+(-2.24)+2.94=9.07_____1.7____21.7
6-6-9-10___7.65+(-2.11)+3.20=8.74_____1.2____21.4

Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
6-6-7-9________11.2____55.6
6h-7-9-10______12.1____58.3
6-6-9-10_______10.7____56.2

6-6-7-9 is best for expected averages by 0.30pt. and and is slightly best for Win %s and very slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select the 10-K to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Tuesday 9:57 PM