July 30, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by horus93
84*-87  ?
54%
54%
39%
39%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 253
mrob2199

Joined: February 2009 (1644 votes)

Tuesday 3:08 AM
Obviously K-10 to our own crib is not our dream discard but from this position might as well sell out for the 5 or 8 cut-If we keep the flush the K-6 is no bonanza either
scottcrib says: 🏆
Eolus619 says: Rob👏👏👏💥💪 well done indeed
Jazzselke says: 2nd-time winner of the National Open, congrats! This is one of our 4 major tournaments.
Ras2829 says: Hi mrob2199: Great player, willing to share knowledge with others, justly rewarded with such success. Congratulations.
Inushtuk1 says: Congrats Rob.
mrob2199 says: Thanks everyone for your kind words-DCH is such a cool site for us sharing our ideas on cribbage-even if we disagree!!!!
SallyAnn3 says: Amazing to watch history happen! Well done, SuperStar Supreme--after that performance, I had to bequeath you a bigger title LOLOL
dph says: This discard decision would, imo, really benefit from ranked-choice voting. By that I mean: I'd like to know how strong Rob's (and others') preference for 6679 is vs. the flush choice. I chose the flush but my preference for it over 6679 is not strong.
Ras2829 says: Hi dph: Based on my scant empirical evidence holding 6-6-7-9 has the edge on potential hand size and a slight advantage on scoring pegs. The difference in crib score between 10-K and 6-K is too small to make up those differences. Ran a query on Cribbage Prof and the 6-6-7-9 has the edge over the flush by .31 in combined value choosing an offense strategy (+pegs+hand+crib). Dealer will peg about three points on average (slightly more) with these cards. The 6-6-7-9 are of moderate pegging value and holding the flush involves 3 cards of moderate pegging value and one of no pegging value (10 spot).
SallyAnn3 says: SCOTT: several of us were hoping to see you at the Open, and are missing your wisdom on here. Please comment and come back to us. Hope you are well :)
scottcrib says: Had a busy May-July. Plan to be there next year. Thanks Sally.
MA2906Bptrs says: Glad to see I chose the same as you Rob lol once again congrats on the win in Raleigh!
dph says: Thanks,Ras.
fentesk says: Congratulations Rob, keep up the great play!
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4444 votes)

Tuesday 3:08 AM
It's important to understand our Relative Position before we get busy looking at our cards. We are the Dealer sandwiched in between the Third Street Par Hole 70 and the Fourth Street Par Hole 96, a sort-of "No Person's Land" and our fate largely depends upon what occurs 'over the board' with our Opponent.

Pone is just Nine Points 'shy' of that coveted, aforementioned Fourth Street Par Hole 96, and therefore has an enviable position.

We have a 💖 FLUSH (6h 7h 9h Th) with Six Points to start after Toss (6d Kc), or we can hold Six Points with 6-6-9 and either Toss (T K) or Toss (7 K).

Those are all rather 'dull' Dealer Discards, and it's a bit discouraging when Toss (7 K) is the more optimistic choice of the bunch!

The FLUSH (6h 7h 9h Th) idea gets us Ten or more points after Fourteen Cuts (5555, 66, 8888, 999, Jh), and the "Wanna-Be Double Run" (6 6 7 9) idea gets us Ten or more points after Seventeen Cuts (2222, 5555, 66, 8888, 999).

Checking my calculator and abacus, Seventeen is indeed greater than Fourteen, and yet this improved possible outcome is fairly well-disguised in this puzzle by horus93, who we hope is doing well. The positive aspects that he brought to the group can still be appreciated in such a clever, positional puzzle.

Another interesting way to go about composing such a puzzle might be to ask, "Show me a Dealer Hand from which you can end up with choosing to place the lowest Discard Average of Toss (T K) into our Crib in which it is not the obvious discard." Let's retain the "broken pieces" of the possible Double Run today and Toss (T K).

After the 9 Card Cut, we snagged a Dozen Points, so with any further luck, maybe we can 'crawl' back into this game. We'll likely end this Taco Tuesday Deal where we would normally have liked starting from, but we're possibly in the process of turning this game around. 🌮 🧃
cribbagepogo says: John, I am going to be in Buffalo Aug. 9 to 14th and would like to have coffee with you. My email our game plus high score at gmail.
Eolus619 says: Morning John…what is your reply to a trey or four lead? thx
JQT says: After Trey Lead, 6 Card Reply, and after 4 Card Lead, 7 Card Reply in order to put some space between the remaining cards. Weekend of 10-11 Aug sounds good, cribbagepogo; on the 14th Aug I cannot eat or drink, MRI Test. I'm at jqt333 at gmail dot com.
Eolus619 says: thx John..and 🤞🙏 on the 14th outcome
JQT says: pogo: not sure what that means "My email our game plus high score at gmail." I tried using my decoder ring!
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4276 votes)

Tuesday 3:10 AM
The flush could be good but the associated K6 isn't, especially with another 6 and a 9 out of circulation. I'll try K7 instead.
Nice puzzle Horus.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6099 votes)

Tuesday 3:35 AM
I kept the 6679 to prevent an 8 cut. (success!) But the 667 is helped by a 2,3,or 5 as well.

Raining again here in northern Massachusetts. I wish we could bottle it up and drop it on Oregon and Calif.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6785 votes)

Tuesday 4:09 AM
And the 6-6-9 with either another six or nine. Did peggers get mentioned yet? Rob keeps rolling well done champ. dec
Eolus619 says: Morning dec…what is your reply to a trey or four lead? thx
dec says: 3 is a 6 , 4 is a 9 at least today it is... dec
Eolus619 says: 👍 thanks dec
cribbagepogo

Joined: October 2007 (3300 votes)

Tuesday 4:44 AM
Amen.
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3332 votes)

Tuesday 4:49 AM
It pays to flush. I would much rather have 6-K in my crib (Schell 3.13) instead of a T-K (Schell 2.84). Will the flush peg better? Many say so
fentesk

Joined: January 2021 (1557 votes)

Tuesday 4:50 AM
It looks like I'm giving myself a terrible discard today, so the choice is which one (I'm guessing this was intentional). It takes the sting of K-10 out a bit knowing my other choices are nearly as bad. I'll keep my 6 points this way with chances for a big cut.
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1689 votes)

Tuesday 4:55 AM
Need a favorable cut ..5-6-7-8-9 …two goals …reach 96+ after this hand & slow current n/d from achieving the cycle….110*-113.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2823 votes)

Tuesday 5:27 AM
Sometimes the crib just gets what is left over.
Jazzselke says: 6679 should have shown.
SallyAnn3 says: Missed you and glad you are feeling better!
Jazzselke says: Thanks! About 95% now.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Tuesday 5:53 AM
Choosing offense to include the pegging, the 6-6-7-9 stands out although holding the flush is very close in combined value. Playing these middle cards, will take any pegs offered. Likely n/d will have cards other than middle of the deck. Will jump on a mid-card lead although will not pair a 7. Would play the 9 on a 7 lead. Otherwise, would score 15-2 or pair as in the case of the sixes.
Eolus619 says: Thanks for the pegging lesson Ras.I must admit to the cribbage world I would have been playing pegging defense from this board position until i read your comment.
Ras2829 says: Hi Eolus619: With n/d at 87 with upcoming deal, dealer has got to "milk" this hand for all possible holes although want to avoid giving up six pegs to take a pair. Where would I choose to play defense and avoid pegs? If n/d were at hole 80-85, peg avoidance with that 4th street CPZ (95-99) would work for me. There are some players who choose peg avoidance if n/d needs 6 points to deal. The late Paul Hatcher, Salem, OR was a great defensive player and had very notable results. I would often choose offense to include the pegging when he would choose peg avoidance. So, choosing peg avoidance with n/d at 87 is not necessarily incorrect.
Eolus619 says: 👍thanks Ras
Ras2829 says: Flushes often peg better than an alternative hold. Not so with this flush. The 6-6-7-9, if choosing offense, gains slightly more in pegs for dealer. If not wishing to get into the slide-rule calculations of HalscribCLX as to peg values, you can use this as a guide when figuring pegging values. The Ace-5 have high pegging vlaue, 6-7-8-9 have moderae pegging value, Jack has low pegging value, and 10-Q-K have no pegging value.
Ras2829 says: And if looking to avoid pegs, start at the 10-Q-K end and work your way down. Although the middle cards have moderate pegging value, the 9 is much more likely to avoid pegs than retaining a six. If all you know about potential pegs is this (and as reported above), your net peg points will improve quite noticeably.
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (365 votes)

Tuesday 7:17 AM
👍🏽👍🏽
asevenson

Joined: August 2011 (3214 votes)

Tuesday 7:18 AM
MiketheExpert

Joined: April 2021 (1318 votes)

Tuesday 7:32 AM
Hate throwing (10 K), but the energy wrapped up in the double-run potential and other mid-card cuts (6 or 9) would be cut severely in order to throw a crib toss which is not much better in (6 K) or (7 K). A dozen points on the cut and now I am playing cautious offense on the pegs. Would not pair a 7 lead, however I would a 6 lead, and 15-2 an 8 or 9 lead.
MiketheExpert says: This hand should also be a substantially better pegger than the flush keep.
SallyAnn3

Joined: March 2020 (1193 votes)

Tuesday 8:29 AM
I finally broke my 1.5 year slump while at the Open. Won the Friday night sattelite, and qualified in 2 events. Thanks to this site for everyone's perspective on crib tosses, and why. was good to see some of you there!
Eolus619 says: well done Commish…saw you in some of the ACC Facebook posted brackets..but good to know your ” all in “ success
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (620 votes)

Tuesday 8:32 AM
I always hold the flush apart from the other 2 cards and then make those 2 cards justify not keeping the flush. Today, they could not. Also, we have better pegging opportunities with the flush and it's much more difficult for the pone to track us during that pegging phase.
kal79

Joined: April 2024 (242 votes)

Tuesday 12:01 PM
Difficult decision today but chose to flush. Lots of good reasons to toss the dreaded 10-K today though!
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Tuesday 3:10 PM
I'll look at 6H-7-9-10 (6D-K), 6-6-7-9 (10-K) and 6-6-9-10 (7-K):

6H-7-9-10: 6pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.13) = 9¼pts

6-6-7-9: 6pts + 3pts (Schell: 2.84) = 9pts

6-6-9-10: 6pts + 3¼pts (Schell: 3.26) = 9¼pts

Potential:

6H-7-9-10: Improves with 2222, 5555, 66, 777, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 9/10/11/13pts with 5555, 66, 8888, 999, JJJJ = 17 cuts. Plus 9 hearts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

6-6-7-9: Improves with 2222, 3333, 5555, 66, 777, 8888, 999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 10/12/16pts with 2222, 5555, 66, 8888, 999 = 17 cuts.

6-6-9-10: Improves with 3333, 5555, 66, 8888, 999, 101010, JJJJ = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 9/12pts with 66, 8888, 999, JJJJ = 13 cuts.

Position:

Pone only needs 9 points to reach 4th street positional hole so I'll play Defense to try to hold them back.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think the flush will be best and harder to read.

Summary:

6H-7-9-10 and 6-6-9-10 both start with 9¼pts but the flush also has an extra 0.20pt for a heart cut. The flush has most cuts for improvement and 17 cuts for 9-13pts while 6-6-7-9 has 17 cuts for 10-16pts. However with the better starting value, heart cut potential, better pegging and more cuts for improvement I'll keep the flush and throw 6D-K.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5638 votes)

Tuesday 3:10 PM
At 84*-87 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____W2 %___W3 %
6-6-7-9____8.70+(-2.15)+2.82=9.37_____2.7____23.5
6h-7-9-10__8.37+(-2.24)+2.94=9.07_____1.7____21.7
6-6-9-10___7.65+(-2.11)+3.20=8.74_____1.2____21.4

Defense_______L2 %____L3 %
6-6-7-9________11.2____55.6
6h-7-9-10______12.1____58.3
6-6-9-10_______10.7____56.2

6-6-7-9 is best for expected averages by 0.30pt. and and is slightly best for Win %s and very slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select the 10-K to discard.

After the 9 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.
RGM

Joined: January 2021 (1092 votes)

Tuesday 9:57 PM