Wednesday 3:12 AM

I'd still be the first dealer from 17+ after Q6, so maybe a case can be made for that? 12 points should be worth the risk though, shouldn't it?

Wordle 1,138 4/6

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A long time between guesses 3 and 4.

Wednesday 3:22 AM

To early in the game not to take the 12 point hand.

Wednesday 3:22 AM

Gotta keep the 12 on first street

Wednesday 3:24 AM

Another pregnant 3s problem, but with a happy ending this time. A sure 12? Whatever is leftover gets tossed. Curling my nose and tossing Face-Five.

Wednesday 3:28 AM

3-Q or 5-Q? It is only hand number 2, but I do not want to give my opponent a chance to get back into this game. I am in good position and do not need points, so I will discard somewhat defensively.

Wednesday 3:29 AM

When discussing averages in Cribbage, we know that Pone tends to peg an average of about 2.1 Holes, and Dealer tends to peg an average of about 3.5 Holes. But nobody will ever peg precisely 2.1 Holes or 3.5 Holes! Pone Total (not including Pegging) tends to average about 8.10 Points, while Dealer Total (not including Pegging or Crib) tends to average about 7.95 Points (GameColony, all averages). But Pone will never score exactly 8.10 Points, nor will Dealer ever score exactly 7.95 Points! The Holes on every Cribbage Board are explicitly drilled an integer or One Hole apart!

We also know that if we 'add up' the Pegging and Hand, Pone tends to move an average of around Ten Points, and the Dealer, if we add the Crib to the Pegging and Hand, tends to obtain an average of around Sixteen Points. And, if we look at the score given for today's puzzle, it appears that our Opponent (as First Non Dealer, or "Pone") did score exactly Ten Points, and then as the First Dealer, we apparently scored Sixteen Points. Once we add up Pegging plus Hand (and Crib, for the Dealer), the decimal portions become relatively so tiny when compared with the integer total, we simply start 'rounding off' our anticipated scores to the nearest point, as we should.

Therefore, what does this tell us about whether to adopt an Offensive Posture or a Defensive Posture? As the First Dealer, we usually approach with a Defensive Mindset, although the CARDS WE ARE DEALT can always change or override the chosen approach! But if we analyze just the Relative Position BEFORE looking at our cards for this puzzle, it probably makes sense to assume that this is the Second Deal, and our Positional Requirements of THIS deal should not differ too much from that of being the First Dealer, since we both attained our averages. Anyway, this positional "clue" gives us something to ponder today.

We were dealt three 6 Cards with a Trey "Kicker," so we have a Dozen Points staring back up at us, but in order to retain this Powerhouse Hand, we must Toss (5 Q)! I know: Not Too Defensive! But what does "Defense" really mean? As far as I am concerned, when we're still on First Street, holding onto a Massive Score as Pone, and giving away a bit more in the Crib in order to obtain it, can actually 'fit' the definition or paradigm of "Playing Defense" quite nicely. Having an Extra Three Points NET on our side of the ledger is of course a good Offensive Idea, but such a difference can also be wise DEFENSIVELY! After all, these terms have only been concocted in order to help us reach an advantageous position such that we ultimately WIN the game!

We might even get a good "tailwind" after Eight Cuts (333, 6, 9999), or 8/46 equals 0.174 or about 17% of the time, when we could enjoy an average additional "boost" of about 7.5 Points! And the "cost" of Toss (5 Q) hands over a Crib Value of 7.34 Points (Schell), which equates to less than Three Points above the "average" Crib Total of 4.65 Points (GameColony). So, the transaction means that we shall give away just below Three Points (more) in order for us to receive around 3.90 Points (more) in return, with a 'shot' at getting an additional 7.5 Points (more) approximately 17% of the time: Sign Me Up! 🍍

Let's (gasp!) Toss (5d Qd) today; yes, we're actually doing it! I mean, what's the WORST THING(*) that could happen?! "Is there a score after being first hand dealer you might make another choice with this hand?" the Puzzle Composer, fentesk, boldly asks us. Yes, probably LOTS of scores, especially as we approach the Second Half of the game.

And, if we actually needed Twenty Points to WIN? Well, (3 6 6 6) does have Three Cuts (333) for Twenty Points, and One Cut (6) for Twenty-Four Points, and Four Cuts (9999) for Eighteen Points; collectively, I think this 'clobbers' the idea of Keep (5 6 6 6), with its Four Cuts (4444) to reach Twenty-One Points, and Four Cuts (7777) to reach Fifteen Points. Lame in comparison!

After the Trey Cut, BINGO! We have Twenty Points! Let's lead the Six of Clubs like we OWN THE PLACE. And let's start hoping that there will only be Two Points in the Enemy Crib.

(*) The WORST THING that could happen after we Toss (5d Qd) is: Dealer could Toss (5 5) and we could "Cut the Case 5 Card" and have to endure a Crib that is worth Twenty-Eight Points! More likely might be if the Dealer decided to Toss (Td Jd) and the Cut Card was the Kd, as here, after counting the Run-of-Four, and Fifteen-Eight, and a Five-Flush, and One Point for Nobs, now the Dealer's Crib 'chimes in' at Eighteen Points.

Is there a way to get Fifteen Points? If the Dealer decided to Toss (4d Jd), this could normally occur after Cutting the 6d; but today, we were dealt this card!

Wordle 1,138 4/6 (I almost perfectly extruded the saucy solution in three gloriously green guesses.)

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Wednesday 3:39 AM

Taking the points not cutting them in half. Let leads into the second question. We half a very good par lead if we take the twelve here. If I needed a three point win I would do the same. If I needed just to win I might have to pick a score like 35-10 at least. One hand for example I would keep would be something like 7-8-8-9 for example to do a 5-X . Six lead by the way. dec

Wednesday 3:49 AM

At hole 16, will choose offense. That means hold the dozen discard 5-Q. Once seeing that lovely trey starter card, knowing have 20 points, will lead the 6C and escape with the trey.

Wednesday 4:15 AM

Rats! Couldn’t muster the courage to toss 5-Q even with the dozen in hand. After I submitted, I realized 5-6-6-6 doesn’t respond well to a 9 play on a 6 lead and a 3 would play better. After seeing the cut with 3-6-6-6, I’d lean defense with pegging, and the 3 play makes for a nice out from a 6 lead.

Alas, I’m here with “only” 12 in my hand today. But then again, it could’ve gone the other way if a 4 had been cut. Curious to see if there are more 3-Q discard comments later today…

Wednesday 4:18 AM

A much more defensive position would be required to hold 6 points versus 12.

Wednesday 5:12 AM

Woohoo!

Wednesday 5:50 AM

Here is the value of this puzzle….make a list of scores where you would feel the need to 1/2 your “sure” score of 12 to make a balk discard.

Wednesday 6:34 AM

I suspect that the math will show that 12 in the hand is worth tossing 5-Q. Schell has 5-Q at 7.34 and 3-Q at 4.69. So, sacrifice 6 in the hand to "save" 2.65 in the crib? Not for me (at this board position).

Wednesday 7:02 AM

Echo......

Wednesday 7:23 AM

It appears that it is the 2nd deal of the game, and each of us have achieved their own "par averages" after the first deal. Well, expected is probably a better term than par, because first "pone" would like to be around hole 17 or 18, (7 or 8 points HIGHER than average), which does not happen very often. While I would settle for around hole 7, but instead I have overachieved this "minimum" requirement by a full 9 holes. This means I would like to continue the general strategy and play defensively at the given score. But once I am dealt a hand that contains a pat 12 points, this certainly has to change my outlook. If I can make it to a minimum of hole 26/27 as dealer of the NEXT hand, I would take on this additional risk (in this case about 3 extra "points" given away in the crib) just about all of the time. So, in other words, if I can expect to reach 2nd street as pone (and 16 + 12 = 28) even BEFORE any pegs, this is a proposition for which I will accept the added risk of a (5 Q) crib throw. Even if dealer earns 22 to 23 points TOTAL on this hand, I would still have to like my position best. So (5 Q) goes goodbye! The cut for 20 points is a well-deserved bonus!

Wednesday 7:42 AM

Altho 73% of respondents chose 3-6-6-6, 100% of commentators chose that combination. That suggests to me that the correct discard for this hand is, indeed, 3-6-6-6. And you're pretty much stuck with that - rarely will you get a 3-6-9 cut (altho this did happen today on DCH and also to me in real play a week ago, elevating my hand to that elusive 18 points!). CribPro results are 37-26, pegging one plus 20 for the hand.

Wednesday 10:02 AM

So....how often do you get a pat 12 hand delivered to you?

Wednesday 10:52 AM

Nice cut!

Wednesday 12:43 PM

Well I decided to throw 3 Q to my opponent rather than 5 Q. It looks as if I was over-cautious!

Wednesday 3:51 PM

3-6-6-6 (5-Q) or 3-5-6D-6 (6-Q)?:

3-6-6-6: 12pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.34) = +4½pts

3-5-6D-6: 4pts - 4¼pts (Schell: 4.22) = -¼pt

Potential:

3-6-6-6: Improves with 333, 6, 9999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 18/20/24pts with all cuts.

3-5-6D-6: Improves with AAAA, 333, 4444, 555, 6, 7777, 9999 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 8/12/16pts with AAAA, 333, 4444, 6, 7777, 9999 = 20 cuts.

Position:

We're both exactly on average so we have positional advantage and I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 3-6-6-6 will peg better but 3-5-6D-6 should peg well too.

Summary:

3-6-6-6 is better for starting value by 4¾pts but it only has 8 cuts for improvement which score 18-24pts. 3-5-6D-6 has many more cuts for improvement with 20 cuts for 8-16pts. However I don't think it will make up 4¾pts so I'll throw the 5-Q.

Wednesday 3:52 PM

At 16-10* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand___Pegs____Crib____Total___W8 %____W9 %
3-6-6-6_____13.30+(-3.20)+(-7.50)=2.60____54.5____62.9
5-6-6-6______9.91+(-3.39)+(-4.54)=1.98____45.5____59.5
3-5-6D-6_____7.65+(-3.09)+(-3.88)=0.68____40.5____56.3

Defense______L8 %____L9 %
3-6-6-6_______28.7____15.8
5-6-6-6_______23.1____17.1
3-5-6D-6______22.4____19.3

3-6-6-6 I best for expected averages by 0.62pt. over 5-6-6-6 and 1.92pts over 3-5-6D-6. It is also best for Win %s and although 5-6-6-6 is lowest for Loss %s I'll still select 5-Q to discard.

After the 3 cut I'll lead a 6 and play Defense:

Lead______________Dealer's Pegging Points
6________________________(-2.57)
3________________________(-2.67)

Wednesday 4:48 PM

Thanks all for the thoughts. I agree with Q-5 today and posted this more as a reminder to myself to consider those high value discards; there are times where they're the way to go, even when the general position may be more defensive.