Thursday 3:03 AM

Wow, first. YOU don't need the 5's. You don't want to give a 15, so lead 4 and stay away. The flavor of the 5's doesn't matter so it will look like different options

Thursday 3:11 AM

Neither the time or place for this hand and cut. I'll discard 5-5 and lead a 4.

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
1st Aug 2024
🏆Score: 121 to 95
🌋SP: 1900
📅Streak: 6
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/201/3333658/1

Wordle 1,139 5/6

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Thursday 3:13 AM

Hmm, all strategy goes out the window with the Jack starter. However, if something else gets cut, lead the 4 and ditch the 5. Bad luck.

Thursday 3:41 AM

5-5 and 5-6 are best for pegging and whatever defense is possible. Get rid of the 5's.

Thursday 3:53 AM

I suppose I should have kept the five that was a flush for a tad more pegging deception.

Thursday 3:53 AM

Lead the four . Most unlikely luck here is a five point pegger here. dec

Thursday 4:25 AM

I keep the fours because I plan on leading one.

Thursday 4:25 AM

Wow the J cut was the nail in the coffin. I tossed the 5s as well and I’ll lead the 4. Any other cut and I’d hope dealer would pair my 4 at which point we win, but 116-120* is almost impossible to overcome with the dealer’s guaranteed 1. Kept the 5c (as mentioned above) to have the option to fake a flush as need be, though in this situation it’s probably not going to have an impact.

Thursday 5:01 AM

Thursday 5:18 AM

Well that cut sucked. Would have been nice to play it out in CribbagePro. Guess I should have posted 4 out instead of 3.
Good day y’all.

Thursday 5:46 AM

J cut realistically means the odds of me pegging out are nil

Thursday 6:14 AM

Momma said there would be days like this.

Thursday 6:53 AM

Ditto...and then all was lost with the cut.

Thursday 7:11 AM

This is a very challenging Cribbage Endgame Puzzle by goatman today. We are Pone at Hole 116, needing to peg Five Holes in order to WIN, but we must also obtain those Five Points BEFORE the Dealer, who sits at Hole 118, gets just Three Points.

We could also try to prevent the Dealer from pegging more than Two Holes and then WIN with First Hand Show, which is a tall order, considering that we were not dealt any Jacks, and thus there is that nagging 4/46 equals 0.087 or nearly a 9% chance that a Jack Cut will occur! And if it does occur??

If we do Cut a Jack, then the Dealer is assured of pegging out by the completion of this deal. In essence, while we may indeed try to plan for Defensive Pegging and our First Hand Show, and we should, there is nearly a 9% chance of another, more "forced" outcome that hovers over us, and that's a Jack Cut, something that would cause us to have to consider the thought of trying to out-peg the Dealer by a 5-to-0 margin!

We were dealt a PAIR of 4 Cards, and a PAIRS Royal in 5 Cards, alongside a 6 Card, so our Discard Choices remain limited, and are very few, namely: Toss (4 4), Toss (4 5), Toss (4 6), Toss (5 5), or Toss (5 6).

Toss (5 5) would seem to leave slightly more variety for us, and if a Jack Cut does or does not occur, we probably want to lead a 4 Card, so why not 'ditch' a PAIR of 5 Cards? I mean, it's not like we have to worry about the Dealer's Crib turning into a Twenty-Nine-Point Monster, right?! (I suppose it could become a Twenty-Four-Point Monster, not that it matters.)

Let's Toss (5 5) today. After the dreaded Jack Cut, we must lead with the score now at: (116-120*), so let's lead a 4 Card from our PAIR. If the Dealer is holding (5 6 6 6) here, we shall WIN! Wait, What?! Yes, it's true; we still have a chance. It's nice to know that we have a path toward VICTORY, however 'narrow' that path may be.

Wordle 1,139 4/6 (One thing all gymnasts have in common)

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Thursday 7:25 AM

If the pone is able to read our hand to any degree, they should expect an A,3,4,5,6,7, or a 10 left in our hand after a 4 play to start this seemingly grim ending for us.

Thursday 7:27 AM

Keep a 4 to lead and any combination that would net 5. BUT the J cut dashed all hopes for this game unless your opponent pegs wrong!

Thursday 11:45 AM

Great hand at the wrong time. I chucked two 5s but with a Jack cut the game's over and I lost...

Thursday 12:58 PM

I'll keep the two 4s in case I need two leads - 4-4-5-6 (5D-5S).

Thursday 12:58 PM

At 116-118* playing an Offense Strategy for the pegging the Dealer peg Out %s are:

Offense__________Dlr Peg Out %
4-4-5-6______________74.8
4-5-5-6______________91.9
4-5-5-5______________91.9
4-4-5-5______________93.0
5-5-5-6______________96.7

4-4-5-6 has a significantly higher chance of avoiding Dealer Pegging Out so I'll select 5D-5S to discard to keep the fake flush.

After the J cut I'll lead a 4:

Lead____________Our Win %
4__________________0.1
5__________________0.0
6__________________0.0