Tuesday 3:09 AM

We are blessed with another RAS puzzle as we exit the final Summer 🌞 Holiday, and dodge those kids and their school buses 🚍 in the dank, cool, wet, rainy, morning traffic, hovering over the horn with one hand, while juggling a paper cup filled with steaming hot coffee ☕ in the other hand.

It would be a lot easier to Toss (5 7) if we had a Lower PAIR instead of a 9 Card PAIR, but then, in either instance, I suppose we would consider Keep (2 2 4 7) and Toss (5 9) or Keep (4 4 5 7) and Toss (2 9).

But with two 9 Cards, if we Toss (5 7), about all we might hope for is that after leading a 9 Card, the Dealer might PAIR it, and we might 'snag' (27-6); and then, either (31-2) after a "go," or even better, (31-4) after the Dealer plays a Deuce! But there is a lot of wishful thinking in that train of thought.

Toss (5 7) has an 'overseas' Crib Value of around 7.00 Points, and Toss (7 9) has a Crib Value of around 5.26 Points, while Toss (2 7) has a Crib Value of around 4.97 Points (Schell, all figures). Being able to start with Six Points instead of just Two Points therefore only seems to cost us from about 1.5 Points up to Two Points, which mathematically seems like a wise decision.

If we were near a critical position, Toss (2 7) seems most defensive, but does this fit the bill at a score of (21-22*)? This is when the definition of those terms "Offense" and "Defense" become muddled, and one term or idea can almost become used interchangeably with the other! After all, the best -fence is a good -fence! Choose your weapon, soldier.

If we do Keep (2 4 9 9), with a PAIR of 9 Cards, a 6 Card Cut probably helps us almost as much as it would help the Dealer's Crib, so our main concern is probably an 8 Card Cut, which is less than a 9% risk. 🎲

This early in a game, I always like to examine what it is that I have the most CONTROL over: Given these cards, do I mostly have control over MY OWN FORWARD MOVEMENT, or do I have more control over INHIBITING THE MOVEMENT OF MY OPPONENT? Answering this question as honestly as possible will usually guide us toward the correct decision.

Let's Toss (5 7) today, and play the odds. After the Deuce Cut, we now have a "matching" card, and thus we have a Dozen Points! I'll lead the 9 Card, and maybe some of our earlier "wishful thinking" will come true!

Wordle 1,172 3/6 (I almost guessed it in 2, when I would have done what the word suggests)

🟩⬛🟨⬛⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟨⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

I've probably played Wordle over 600 times, but I've had my statistics erased at least twice by the 'failing' New York Times (a little bit of election humor there). Anyway, here are my statistics for the current 'run' of 203 attempts.

Wordle Guess Distribution (203 plays)

1 - 00 - 00.000%
2 - 06 - 02.956%
3 - 55 - 27.094%
4 - 94 - 46.305%
5 - 38 - 18.719%
6 - 05 - 02.463%
X - 05 - 02.463%

Therefore, I guessed the correct solution: in two guesses 2.956% of the time; three or fewer: 30.050% of the time; four or fewer: 76.355% of the time; five or fewer: 95.074% of the time; six or fewer: 97.537% of the time; thus, I have Win Rate (6 or fewer guesses, rounded integer truncated) of 98% over 203 plays. 🍂

Tuesday 3:11 AM

The cut favours those who chose 5-7 today.

I'll lead a 9, hoping for:

9(9)-9(18/2)-9(27/6)-"go"-4(31/2).

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
3rd Sep 2024
🏆Score: 121 to 117
🌋SP: 1420
📅Streak: 10
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/234/3333658/1

Hand 1. A-2
Hand 2. K-8
Hand 3. J-5
Hand 4. 7-Qh
Hand 5. 8-10
Hand 6. 2-10
Hand 7. 4-8
Hand 8. J-4 ?
Hand 9. 3-5

Tuesday 3:34 AM

Every game has that moment where you take the leap of faith. If you play it right, you are rewarded. If the cribbage fairy decides she doesnt like you, the whole thing backfires. Apparently she took her pills for her bipolar disorder.
What happened to summer Its 44 here in northern Massachusetts.

Tuesday 3:57 AM

Not even close. I score the 5-7 toss at 8.7. I see the second best toss as one of the 7-9s at 6.0.

Tuesday 4:03 AM

Keeping the points today at this position.

Tuesday 4:34 AM

At -13 to Dealer's +4 I'll play this way, but lead the 9.

Tuesday 5:08 AM

I'll toss a 5 with an A, 2, 8 or 9, but not a 7. Key connectors.

Tuesday 5:12 AM

Another great instructional puzzle by RAS to illustrate that tossing a 5, while not desirable, is our best choice this hand.
Especially, when he cuts a favorable card 👍
John

Tuesday 5:13 AM

Keeping the points and crossing my fingers if I get a bad cut, it will at least be a 6.

Tuesday 5:27 AM

The lowest toss? That would be 4-9 Yech! I will go with the twelve cuts I would like to see ( one of the sixes might be tolerable ) . After a favorable starter I will lead the two if not a good cut I would have done one of the nines. dec

Tuesday 5:53 AM

I felt mad, threw 5 7 to dealer to keep a decent hand and the cribbage fairy decided to reward the foolhardy with a 2.

Tuesday 6:49 AM

Finally! Last place! Total defense and this hand will improve with any cut. I will lead the 4.

Tuesday 7:53 AM

Too far behind to not keep a good hand even if that risks a good crib for Dealer.

Tuesday 8:15 AM

Thought about tossing 5-7 but went with 2-7. Figured if a 6 gets cut it would probably help me a lot more than them.

Tuesday 9:22 AM

Looks like fortune favors the brave today…I was not brave! I’m sacrificing 4 points to prevent a 5 discard to the dealer’s crib…we just aren’t desperate enough to warrant that in my opinion. However, we are in unfavorable first street position, so I think it would be smart to chase a few pegs here. I’ll lead the 9 like Inishtuk1 said above. If we can nail a 27-6 on the first sequence, that would be awesome!

Tuesday 9:49 AM

Tuesday 12:10 PM

I think it's between 2-4-9-9 (5-7) and 2-4-5-9 (7-9):

2-4-9-9: 6pts - 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = -1pt

2-4-5-9: 2pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.26) = -3¼pts

Potential:

2-4-9-9: Improves with 222, 3333, 444, 6666, 99 = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 9/10/12pts with all cuts.

2-4-5-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 6/8/9pts with 222, 3333, 444, 6666, 99 = 16 cuts.

Position:

We need 23pts to reach 2nd street positional hole so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

With two low cards a 5 and a middle card plus a 3-card magic eleven I think 2-4-5-9 will peg much better.

Summary:

2-4-9-9 is better for starting value by 2¼pts but 2-4-5-9 has many more cuts for improvement and 16 cuts for 6-9pts which is a big increase on 2pts. Also it should peg much better. So I think it will make up the 2¼pts and therefore I'll throw a 7-9.

Tuesday 12:10 PM

At 21-22* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Our
Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W7 %____W8 %
2-4-9-9____7.65+1.11+(-7.03)=1.73____11.8____16.9
5-7-9-9____4.96+1.59+(-4.91)=1.64_____9.1____16.8
2-4-5-9____4.96+1.46+(-4.79)=1.63_____9.5____16.7
4-5-9-9____4.78+1.48+(-4.64)=1.62____13.3____19.6

Offense______L7 %____L8 %
2-4-9-9_______32.0____55.8
5-7-9-9_______27.8____52.4
2-4-5-9_______28.9____53.1
4-5-9-9_______26.5____48.3

2-4-9-9 is best for expected averages by 0.09pt. over 5-7-9-9 and although it is second best for Win %s it is worst for Loss %s because of the risky 5-7. On the other hand 4-5-9-9 is only 0.11pt lower for expected averages it is appreciably best for Win %s and considerably lowest for Loss %s. So although it is early in the game I'll decide based on the Win/Loss %s and select 2-7 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll lead a 9 and play Offense:

Lead_____________Our Pegging Points
9_______________________1.61
5_______________________0.96
4_______________________0.78

Tuesday 1:23 PM

Sorry won't give up 5-7 which averages 7.083 (133) on the other side of the board to hold six points. At hole 14, am choosing offense. That means leading a 9 and taking any pegs offered. Would like to deal upcoming hand from hole 26. Not likely, even so get as close as possible. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Tuesday 5:30 PM

Tough decision for me today between (2 7) and (5 7). I think offense strategy is correct, and expected net gain is probably best for hand value less expected crib even so by tossing the more dangerous (5 7). I think I will risk it at this point in the game to try and improve my position. Certainly paid off with the cut card today.

Wednesday 2:23 AM

I hate throwing a 5 to my opponent, but I think it was the right move.