September 3, 2024
58% | |||||
23% | |||||
8% | |||||
3% | |||||
2% | |||||
2% | |||||
1% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
0% | |||||
Total votes: 293 |
JQT 4221 votes Joined: October 2008 |
    Tuesday 3:09 AM
We are blessed with another RAS puzzle as we exit the final Summer 🌞 Holiday, and dodge those kids and their school buses 🚍 in the dank, cool, wet, rainy, morning traffic, hovering over the horn with one hand, while juggling a paper cup filled with steaming hot coffee ☕ in the other hand.
It would be a lot easier to Toss (5 7) if we had a Lower PAIR instead of a 9 Card PAIR, but then, in either instance, I suppose we would consider Keep (2 2 4 7) and Toss (5 9) or Keep (4 4 5 7) and Toss (2 9). But with two 9 Cards, if we Toss (5 7), about all we might hope for is that after leading a 9 Card, the Dealer might PAIR it, and we might 'snag' (27-6); and then, either (31-2) after a "go," or even better, (31-4) after the Dealer plays a Deuce! But there is a lot of wishful thinking in that train of thought. Toss (5 7) has an 'overseas' Crib Value of around 7.00 Points, and Toss (7 9) has a Crib Value of around 5.26 Points, while Toss (2 7) has a Crib Value of around 4.97 Points (Schell, all figures). Being able to start with Six Points instead of just Two Points therefore only seems to cost us from about 1.5 Points up to Two Points, which mathematically seems like a wise decision. If we were near a critical position, Toss (2 7) seems most defensive, but does this fit the bill at a score of (21-22*)? This is when the definition of those terms "Offense" and "Defense" become muddled, and one term or idea can almost become used interchangeably with the other! After all, the best -fence is a good -fence! Choose your weapon, soldier. If we do Keep (2 4 9 9), with a PAIR of 9 Cards, a 6 Card Cut probably helps us almost as much as it would help the Dealer's Crib, so our main concern is probably an 8 Card Cut, which is less than a 9% risk. 🎲 This early in a game, I always like to examine what it is that I have the most CONTROL over: Given these cards, do I mostly have control over MY OWN FORWARD MOVEMENT, or do I have more control over INHIBITING THE MOVEMENT OF MY OPPONENT? Answering this question as honestly as possible will usually guide us toward the correct decision. Let's Toss (5 7) today, and play the odds. After the Deuce Cut, we now have a "matching" card, and thus we have a Dozen Points! I'll lead the 9 Card, and maybe some of our earlier "wishful thinking" will come true! Wordle 1,172 3/6 (I almost guessed it in 2, when I would have done what the word suggests) 🟩⬛🟨⬛⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟨⬛ 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 I've probably played Wordle over 600 times, but I've had my statistics erased at least twice by the 'failing' New York Times (a little bit of election humor there). Anyway, here are my statistics for the current 'run' of 203 attempts. Wordle Guess Distribution (203 plays) 1 - 00 - 00.000% 2 - 06 - 02.956% 3 - 55 - 27.094% 4 - 94 - 46.305% 5 - 38 - 18.719% 6 - 05 - 02.463% X - 05 - 02.463% Therefore, I guessed the correct solution: in two guesses 2.956% of the time; three or fewer: 30.050% of the time; four or fewer: 76.355% of the time; five or fewer: 95.074% of the time; six or fewer: 97.537% of the time; thus, I have Win Rate (6 or fewer guesses, rounded integer truncated) of 98% over 203 plays. 🍂 HfxKen says: Thanks for your thoughts on doubles the other day.
I'm of the same frame of mind.
It is not an ACC tourney. We don't have them here in Nova Scotia. Just a local area call take event.
I think we will just run and gun and hope it's fun. HfxKen says: *fall fair* JQT says: Even Three Player (not Captain's, but the 5-Card variant in which the Crib has One Widow Card) is probably not quite Cribbage, but what it loses in the Pegging Prowess is perhaps made up by the fact that you are "chasing" two other players instead of just one, so it's a shift in skills, but it still contains the elements and essence of Real Cribbage. But with Four Players and higher, the game loses all of its luster in my opinion, and it becomes something else. If you play Doubles or Partners, it maybe tries to emulate or become like Pinochle, but at least in Pinochle, you have ways of communicating information to your Partner, such as a Meld Bid, etc. Doing this in any game of Cribbage goes by another name, as it's technically called "cheating." Again, I have not played Doubles hardly at all, but I have played Four-Player, Five-Player, Six-Player, etc., Cribbage, and I've found it lacking. Players often forget whose turn it is, and what the Count is, probably because these sessions are often played at the end of a regular series of Two-Player games. In my experience, these multi-player variants tend to be more "social" games, which cuts both ways: Often, you get to talk more and get to know the other players better, but it's also a chance for a sore loser (who lost money earlier that night) to attempt to win back some amount as consolation. The really insidious aspect of multi-player Cribbage is that while you cannot really govern your own score, you can sure "sink" another player, if that is your objective. BonfireWeekend says: Doubles cribbage can be pretty useful for new players to see a lot of cards in pegging when they’re not constantly decision making. It helped me a ton early on see the flow of runs and how they can be set up because I wasn’t buried in my own hand and mind. It’s certainly less skill based as it limits your control—but just getting pegging reps to see variations as a newbie was great. |
james500 4059 votes Joined: June 2013 |
    Tuesday 3:11 AM
The cut favours those who chose 5-7 today.
I'll lead a 9, hoping for: 9(9)-9(18/2)-9(27/6)-"go"-4(31/2). Cribbage Pro Scrimmage 3rd Sep 2024 🏆Score: 121 to 117 🌋SP: 1420 📅Streak: 10 https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/234/3333658/1 Hand 1. A-2 Hand 2. K-8 Hand 3. J-5 Hand 4. 7-Qh Hand 5. 8-10 Hand 6. 2-10 Hand 7. 4-8 Hand 8. J-4 ? Hand 9. 3-5 |
Gougie00 5873 votes Joined: March 2008 |
    Tuesday 3:34 AM
Every game has that moment where you take the leap of faith. If you play it right, you are rewarded. If the cribbage fairy decides she doesnt like you, the whole thing backfires. Apparently she took her pills for her bipolar disorder.
What happened to summer Its 44 here in northern Massachusetts. |
usacoder 1035 votes Joined: August 2019 |
    Tuesday 3:57 AM
Not even close. I score the 5-7 toss at 8.7. I see the second best toss as one of the 7-9s at 6.0. |
wasa 3138 votes Joined: November 2014 |
    Tuesday 4:03 AM
Keeping the points today at this position. |
Inushtuk1 1610 votes Joined: July 2016 |
    Tuesday 4:34 AM
At -13 to Dealer's +4 I'll play this way, but lead the 9. kal79 says: Thanks again for the clarification on yesterday’s puzzle. I’m definitely one of the younger players on this site and as Jazzselke labeled it, yesterday’s puzzle was a bit counterintuitive! |
SallyAnn3 1007 votes Joined: March 2020 |
    Tuesday 5:08 AM
I'll toss a 5 with an A, 2, 8 or 9, but not a 7. Key connectors. |
J.W.B. 489 votes Joined: March 2014 |
    Tuesday 5:12 AM
Another great instructional puzzle by RAS to illustrate that tossing a 5, while not desirable, is our best choice this hand.
Especially, when he cuts a favorable card 👍 John |
JJx7fan 21 votes Joined: December 2023 |
    Tuesday 5:13 AM
Keeping the points and crossing my fingers if I get a bad cut, it will at least be a 6. SallyAnn3 says: So glad I am not the only woman here anymore (though I am not sure if some might be women, like wasa and rubytuesday)
|
dec 6517 votes Joined: April 2008 |
    Tuesday 5:27 AM
The lowest toss? That would be 4-9 Yech! I will go with the twelve cuts I would like to see ( one of the sixes might be tolerable ) . After a favorable starter I will lead the two if not a good cut I would have done one of the nines. dec
|
RubyTuesday 1027 votes Joined: January 2019 |
    Tuesday 5:53 AM
I felt mad, threw 5 7 to dealer to keep a decent hand and the cribbage fairy decided to reward the foolhardy with a 2. |
Sgt Pegger 405 votes Joined: July 2017 |
    Tuesday 6:49 AM
Finally! Last place! Total defense and this hand will improve with any cut. I will lead the 4. Gougie00 says: What are you hoping to cut? Everything helps, but there are a whole lot of cuts for 2 points. Sgt Pegger says: Well, as I stated "defense"...... Except for the pegging aspect! I plan to get 2 points in the hand, shut them down, and peg at least 2 more points. My choice is NOT everyone's cup of jo, but it works for me. I am also now controlling the pace of this match by slowing it down. I'm on my way to the playoffs.....see ya there? lol all in fun Gougie :) |
MarktheShark 202 votes Joined: January 2024 |
    Tuesday 7:53 AM
Too far behind to not keep a good hand even if that risks a good crib for Dealer. |
Cribsurfer 796 votes Joined: September 2016 |
    Tuesday 8:15 AM
Thought about tossing 5-7 but went with 2-7. Figured if a 6 gets cut it would probably help me a lot more than them. |
kal79 147 votes Joined: April 2024 |
    Tuesday 9:22 AM
Looks like fortune favors the brave today…I was not brave! I’m sacrificing 4 points to prevent a 5 discard to the dealer’s crib…we just aren’t desperate enough to warrant that in my opinion. However, we are in unfavorable first street position, so I think it would be smart to chase a few pegs here. I’ll lead the 9 like Inishtuk1 said above. If we can nail a 27-6 on the first sequence, that would be awesome! |
asevenson 3021 votes Joined: August 2011 |
    Tuesday 9:49 AM
asevenson says: Forgot to mention: New ACC Grass Roots season starts for me tonight. Good Luck to us all. |
Coeurdelion 5712 votes Joined: October 2007 |
    Tuesday 12:10 PM
I think it's between 2-4-9-9 (5-7) and 2-4-5-9 (7-9):
2-4-9-9: 6pts - 7pts (Schell: 7.00) = -1pt 2-4-5-9: 2pts - 5¼pts (Schell: 5.26) = -3¼pts Potential: 2-4-9-9: Improves with 222, 3333, 444, 6666, 99 = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 9/10/12pts with all cuts. 2-4-5-9: Improves with AAAA, 222, 3333, 444, 555, 6666, 8888, 99 + 16xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 6/8/9pts with 222, 3333, 444, 6666, 99 = 16 cuts. Position: We need 23pts to reach 2nd street positional hole so I'll play Offense. Pegging: With two low cards a 5 and a middle card plus a 3-card magic eleven I think 2-4-5-9 will peg much better. Summary: 2-4-9-9 is better for starting value by 2¼pts but 2-4-5-9 has many more cuts for improvement and 16 cuts for 6-9pts which is a big increase on 2pts. Also it should peg much better. So I think it will make up the 2¼pts and therefore I'll throw a 7-9. |
HalscribCLX 5441 votes Joined: February 2008 |
    Tuesday 12:10 PM
At 21-22* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Our Offense___Hand_Pegs_Crib____Total___W7 %____W8 % 2-4-9-9____7.65+1.11+(-7.03)=1.73____11.8____16.9 5-7-9-9____4.96+1.59+(-4.91)=1.64_____9.1____16.8 2-4-5-9____4.96+1.46+(-4.79)=1.63_____9.5____16.7 4-5-9-9____4.78+1.48+(-4.64)=1.62____13.3____19.6 Offense______L7 %____L8 % 2-4-9-9_______32.0____55.8 5-7-9-9_______27.8____52.4 2-4-5-9_______28.9____53.1 4-5-9-9_______26.5____48.3 2-4-9-9 is best for expected averages by 0.09pt. over 5-7-9-9 and although it is second best for Win %s it is worst for Loss %s because of the risky 5-7. On the other hand 4-5-9-9 is only 0.11pt lower for expected averages it is appreciably best for Win %s and considerably lowest for Loss %s. So although it is early in the game I'll decide based on the Win/Loss %s and select 2-7 to discard. After the 2 cut I'll lead a 9 and play Offense: Lead_____________Our Pegging Points 9_______________________1.61 5_______________________0.96 4_______________________0.78 Ras2829 says: Amazing that 5-7-9-9 scores more pegs than other options. |
Ras2829 5288 votes Joined: November 2008 |
    Tuesday 1:23 PM
Sorry won't give up 5-7 which averages 7.083 (133) on the other side of the board to hold six points. At hole 14, am choosing offense. That means leading a 9 and taking any pegs offered. Would like to deal upcoming hand from hole 26. Not likely, even so get as close as possible. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. |
MiketheExpert 1252 votes Joined: April 2021 |
    Tuesday 5:30 PM
Tough decision for me today between (2 7) and (5 7). I think offense strategy is correct, and expected net gain is probably best for hand value less expected crib even so by tossing the more dangerous (5 7). I think I will risk it at this point in the game to try and improve my position. Certainly paid off with the cut card today. MiketheExpert says: Also in my experience I often get away with giving up between a 5 to 7 point crib [remember(5 7)!] a good chunk of the time, so for an expected hand which is close to 3 points higher, it seems like at least an even trade. I'm significantly more scared of (4 5), (5 6), and even (3 5) to some extent. |
jmudge 795 votes Joined: July 2020 |
    Wednesday 2:23 AM
I hate throwing a 5 to my opponent, but I think it was the right move. |