Wednesday 3:13 AM

I'm a chicken today.

Wednesday 3:42 AM

At hole 35 am choosing offense. That means keeping a dozen and pitching 7-8. Although not much in the way of pegging potential with cards of two ranks only, will take any pegs offered. Seriously considered 7-8 discard only. Flush was a very remote alternative. Will miss y'all for a few days as headed for a few days with our seven great grandchildren in the Grande Ronde Valley of northeast Oregon. Will enjoy the excitement of Oregon's largest livestock auction. Our wonderful granddaughter is the owner and brains behind the Intermountain Livestock Exchange. Thursday 9/5 is her customer appreciation day; so, will enjoy a lovely mid-day dinner with some great home-prepared food dishes. Likely be about 300 cattle buyers and sellers doing the same. Will return to this site on Sunday 9/9. Need a few days away from Napavine. Will be staying with son/wife at the base of Mt. Emily (Blue Mountain range of NE Oregon) as they look across the valley at the Eagle Cap Wilderness and the "Little Alps of America". What a view - hope not obscured by smoke which is often the case with wildfires ablaze.

Wednesday 3:52 AM

A hand I received on Cribbage Classic. Splitting them this way gives a combined 14 points before the cut, but it's not always as simple as keeping the biggest hand. For what it's worth, the feedback from Reddit favoured discarding 7-8.

Wednesday 4:05 AM

I’ll split.

PSA: I’m still voting daily. Just not commenting much.

Wednesday 4:15 AM

I will pass on the sure 14 today in hopes my dozen can improve to at least 14 instead. 3-6-6-6 only has 8 cuts for improvement (granted 7-8 fares well in the crib), but 6-6-7-8 improves with any of A2356789 getting cut. I’d say all in all, hand plus crib averages are similar between the two choices of 7-8 and 3-6. I feel the double run is a stronger pegger though. Choosing offense given our position and would happily get into a pegging war with our opponent if they lead a mid range card. This hand should peg quite well today :)

Wednesday 4:22 AM

I'm with the majority, as of 7:15 edt.

I score the 7-8 toss at 20.7, any 3-6 toss at 18.2 and the 6H-6C (for the flush) at 16.7.

Wednesday 4:38 AM

Wednesday 4:48 AM

Three opinions here. Keep a combined fourteen. We need that big hit somewhere whether its 3-6 or 7-9 is involved. The scores dictate unless our opponent have a big hit hand they will not peg on with us. We need more luck here then skill . dec

Wednesday 5:31 AM

A few good choices, but I feel this one is the best. Yes, I saw the flush, but not that tempted by it today!

Wednesday 5:32 AM

At this score would go for the miracle cuts of a 3, 6 or 9, the latter two also boosting the crib.

Wednesday 5:41 AM

echo echo echo...

Wednesday 5:42 AM

I like it this way.

Wednesday 5:44 AM

hmmm..something is off..Liam rates 7/8 @ 5.9..Ras @ 6.42 and Schell @ 6.53 ..regardless ..I will start with 12 points in the keep and a top ten dealer discard according to Ras’s evidence …Although the J cut gives me two points ..it is also an example of why Ras has said …” Play the game without a favorable starter card. You're likely to miss more cuts than you receive and don't believe you can improve your cutting ability. Most strong tournament players plan their hand, strategy, etc. without the benefit of the starter card. If the starter card is favorable, that is an unplanned bonus.”…the other side of this is a LOT of very successful players do evaluate cut potential ..what a game we play

Wednesday 6:19 AM

12 in the hand, a chance for 20 or 24 and 7-8 in the crib seems right to me.

Wednesday 6:46 AM

Hoping for one of those miracle cuts Dan mentioned.

Wednesday 7:35 AM

Wednesday 8:49 AM

With a throw as good as (7 8), I need to keep a pat 12 and close as much ground as possible, even though I did see that flush with a pair throw, which will be a rather distant 2nd choice. Catching up from this far behind is sure to be more than a 1-deal job. I'd rather have a better cut than the 2 pts the J gives me.

Wednesday 9:01 AM

After Toss (7 8), we have both the Highest Hand and the Highest Crib, but the Pegging may not be so great. But since there are no great Pegging Cards, that probably won't matter.

Let's Toss (7 8) today, and GET GOING! 🚀 After the very unfortunate Jack Cut, let's take "Two for Heels" and lead a 6 Card from our Triplet.

Wordle 1,173 2/6 (strictly not shaken)

🟩⬛⬛🟩🟨
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Wednesday 10:28 AM

7 8 to my7 crib. I didn’t spot the flush but wouldn’t haves kept it if I had.

Wednesday 12:20 PM

I'll look at the flush for 9pts, the double-run for 10pts and the dozen:

3-6S-7-8: 9pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.76) = 14¾pts

6-6-7-8: 10pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 14pts

3-6-6-6: 12pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 18½pts

Potential:

3-6S-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6, 777, 888, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 12/14/16pts with 5555, 6, 777, 888, 9999 = 15 cuts. Plus 9 spade cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

6-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 5555, 6, 777, 888, 9999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 14/16/17/20pts with AAAA, 2222, 6, 777, 888, 9999 = 19 cuts.

3-6-6-6: Improves with 333, 6, 9999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 18/20pts with all cuts.

Position:

Pone is only 12pts away from 3rd street positional hole. We need a big hand and a good box. I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

3-6-6-6 would be better for Defense. Flushes normally peg well and are hard to read so I think 3-6S-7-8 will peg best.

Summary:

I think as we're looking for a big hand here that it is between 6-6-7-8 and 3-6-6-6. 6-6-7-8 has 11 cuts for 16-20pts 9 (6, 777, 888, 9999) while 3-6-6-6 has only 8 cuts for 18/20pts (333, 6, 9999), Admittedly the 7-8 is a much better discard than 3-6 but there's no guarantee it will hit and holding three 6s makes it less likely. So I'll throw the suited 3-6.

Wednesday 12:20 PM

At 35*-58 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________________Pone's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____W5 %___W6 %
3-6-6-6____13.30+(-2.13)+6.02=17.19____9.8____20.3
3-6S-78____11.43+(-2.00)+5.26=14.69____6.9____14.9
6H-6C-7-8__12.98+(-2.20)+3.33=14.11____6.4____14.6

Defense_______L5 %___L6 %
3-6-6-6________38.4___65.5
3-6S-78________44.1___73.9
6H-6C-7-8______42.0___73.4

3-6-6-6 is best for expected averages by 2.50pts over the flush and is considerably best for Win %s and very much lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-8 to discard.

After the J cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense).

Wednesday 5:42 PM

bah.........bah...........bah

Wednesday 5:48 PM

Ditto

Wednesday 8:38 PM