September 4, 2024
73% 73% | |||||
8% 8% | |||||
8% 8% | |||||
5% 5% | |||||
2% 2% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
Total votes: 284 |
James500 | Also here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Cribbage/s/ISZoJkyOwt |
Joined: March 2008 (6001 votes) Wednesday 3:13 AM
I'm a chicken today. |
Joined: November 2008 (5406 votes) Wednesday 3:42 AM
At hole 35 am choosing offense. That means keeping a dozen and pitching 7-8. Although not much in the way of pegging potential with cards of two ranks only, will take any pegs offered. Seriously considered 7-8 discard only. Flush was a very remote alternative. Will miss y'all for a few days as headed for a few days with our seven great grandchildren in the Grande Ronde Valley of northeast Oregon. Will enjoy the excitement of Oregon's largest livestock auction. Our wonderful granddaughter is the owner and brains behind the Intermountain Livestock Exchange. Thursday 9/5 is her customer appreciation day; so, will enjoy a lovely mid-day dinner with some great home-prepared food dishes. Likely be about 300 cattle buyers and sellers doing the same. Will return to this site on Sunday 9/9. Need a few days away from Napavine. Will be staying with son/wife at the base of Mt. Emily (Blue Mountain range of NE Oregon) as they look across the valley at the Eagle Cap Wilderness and the "Little Alps of America". What a view - hope not obscured by smoke which is often the case with wildfires ablaze. Jazzselke says: Have a great time Ras. SallyAnn3 says: Am sure they'll love having you--enjoy :) kal79 says: Hi Ras, that trip sounds wonderful. Enjoy! JQT says: Just days ago, after a hundred years, the fourth and final dam along the Klamath River was breached, with hopes of bringing back the salmon. Let's hope in maybe another century the damage to the climate can be similarly addressed. I spent half of my life living in Idaho, just east of where you're headed, RAS. My last trek Out West was in 2007, and the land surrounding my favorite trout stream burned badly in 2012, but I hear that it's mostly recovered! I hope to make one more trip in my lifetime just to see that area. Have a wonderful trip! ⛺ Ref: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240903-removing-the-klamath-river-dams-to-restore-the-river-what-happens-next Inushtuk1 says: Bon voyage Ras. |
Joined: June 2013 (4181 votes) Wednesday 3:52 AM
A hand I received on Cribbage Classic. Splitting them this way gives a combined 14 points before the cut, but it's not always as simple as keeping the biggest hand. For what it's worth, the feedback from Reddit favoured discarding 7-8. |
Joined: August 2018 (1531 votes) Wednesday 4:05 AM
I’ll split.
PSA: I’m still voting daily. Just not commenting much. Eolus619 says: zeke..if your reason is an echo….I get why no comment ..if it has a different view point than what you are reading ..suggest you post it as it helps us all |
Joined: April 2024 (242 votes) Wednesday 4:15 AM
I will pass on the sure 14 today in hopes my dozen can improve to at least 14 instead. 3-6-6-6 only has 8 cuts for improvement (granted 7-8 fares well in the crib), but 6-6-7-8 improves with any of A2356789 getting cut. I’d say all in all, hand plus crib averages are similar between the two choices of 7-8 and 3-6. I feel the double run is a stronger pegger though. Choosing offense given our position and would happily get into a pegging war with our opponent if they lead a mid range card. This hand should peg quite well today :) Jazzselke says: Tremendous to have a younger, newer player on this site to continue the tradition of this great game. Get others involved if possible! kal79 says: Thank you! I’m fortunate to have a few other 20-something’s I routinely play, not to mention my family has played our game for a long time too. My dad taught me to play when I was 5, and I’ve been going strong for almost two decades since! kal79 says: Interesting to see the near-unanimity around 7-8 today. Perhaps this is one of those hands my youth shows through…I’ll be reading what you all have to say in favor of 7-8 closely today. Jazzselke says: Do you know if you have a Grass Roots club close to you? kal79 says: Yes, there are a couple of them in my area. I’ve yet to play at them, but could be a good way to further enhance my cribbage skills! SallyAnn3 says: The ACC also has an online division, and we'd love to have you join us. Go here for many links of info: https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/internet/default.asp
kal79 says: Thank you Sally! Another good resource that I will consider! |
Joined: August 2019 (1062 votes) Wednesday 4:22 AM
I'm with the majority, as of 7:15 edt.
I score the 7-8 toss at 20.7, any 3-6 toss at 18.2 and the 6H-6C (for the flush) at 16.7. |
Joined: April 2011 (4350 votes) Wednesday 4:38 AM
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Joined: April 2008 (6670 votes) Wednesday 4:48 AM
Three opinions here. Keep a combined fourteen. We need that big hit somewhere whether its 3-6 or 7-9 is involved. The scores dictate unless our opponent have a big hit hand they will not peg on with us. We need more luck here then skill . dec |
Joined: November 2014 (3240 votes) Wednesday 5:31 AM
A few good choices, but I feel this one is the best. Yes, I saw the flush, but not that tempted by it today! |
Joined: March 2009 (2754 votes) Wednesday 5:32 AM
At this score would go for the miracle cuts of a 3, 6 or 9, the latter two also boosting the crib. |
Joined: March 2020 (1103 votes) Wednesday 5:41 AM
echo echo echo... |
Joined: May 2024 (261 votes) Wednesday 5:42 AM
I like it this way. |
Joined: June 2020 (1591 votes) Wednesday 5:44 AM
hmmm..something is off..Liam rates 7/8 @ 5.9..Ras @ 6.42 and Schell @ 6.53 ..regardless ..I will start with 12 points in the keep and a top ten dealer discard according to Ras’s evidence …Although the J cut gives me two points ..it is also an example of why Ras has said …” Play the game without a favorable starter card. You're likely to miss more cuts than you receive and don't believe you can improve your cutting ability. Most strong tournament players plan their hand, strategy, etc. without the benefit of the starter card. If the starter card is favorable, that is an unplanned bonus.”…the other side of this is a LOT of very successful players do evaluate cut potential ..what a game we play
Eolus619 says: and the most miscounted combo in cribbage is a four card 15
2-2-2-6….3 = fentesk says: Re: C. Liam site, I believe you're seeing the effect of "negative delta" factoring into his calculation. For example, try switching the 6s to Qs (substitution chosen at random) and the calculated 7-8 crib value is 6.7. 3-6-7-8-Q-Q is calculated as 6.4. It looks like he runs his calculation for crib scoring each time a hand is queried and considers the known cards in hand in the algorithm. Eolus619 says: thx fentesk..interesting |
Joined: September 2016 (877 votes) Wednesday 6:19 AM
12 in the hand, a chance for 20 or 24 and 7-8 in the crib seems right to me. |
Joined: December 2023 (55 votes) Wednesday 6:46 AM
Hoping for one of those miracle cuts Dan mentioned. |
Joined: August 2011 (3136 votes) Wednesday 7:35 AM
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Joined: April 2021 (1275 votes) Wednesday 8:49 AM
With a throw as good as (7 8), I need to keep a pat 12 and close as much ground as possible, even though I did see that flush with a pair throw, which will be a rather distant 2nd choice. Catching up from this far behind is sure to be more than a 1-deal job. I'd rather have a better cut than the 2 pts the J gives me. MiketheExpert says: Well...I could probably catch up in 1 deal with the other 6 or 9, combined with that (7 8) in the crib! |
Joined: October 2008 (4347 votes) Wednesday 9:01 AM
After Toss (7 8), we have both the Highest Hand and the Highest Crib, but the Pegging may not be so great. But since there are no great Pegging Cards, that probably won't matter.
Let's Toss (7 8) today, and GET GOING! 🚀 After the very unfortunate Jack Cut, let's take "Two for Heels" and lead a 6 Card from our Triplet. Wordle 1,173 2/6 (strictly not shaken) 🟩⬛⬛🟩🟨 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 JQT says: Of course we don't lead when we are the Dealer. Guess who just woke up! And I got my Seventh Wordle in Two Guesses in 2024! |
Joined: January 2019 (1115 votes) Wednesday 10:28 AM
7 8 to my7 crib. I didn’t spot the flush but wouldn’t haves kept it if I had. |
Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes) Wednesday 12:20 PM
I'll look at the flush for 9pts, the double-run for 10pts and the dozen:
3-6S-7-8: 9pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.76) = 14¾pts 6-6-7-8: 10pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 14pts 3-6-6-6: 12pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 18½pts Potential: 3-6S-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 5555, 6, 777, 888, 9999 = 30 cuts = 30/46 = 65.2% up to 12/14/16pts with 5555, 6, 777, 888, 9999 = 15 cuts. Plus 9 spade cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt. 6-6-7-8: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 5555, 6, 777, 888, 9999 = 26 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 14/16/17/20pts with AAAA, 2222, 6, 777, 888, 9999 = 19 cuts. 3-6-6-6: Improves with 333, 6, 9999 = 8 cuts = 8/46 = 17.4% up to 18/20pts with all cuts. Position: Pone is only 12pts away from 3rd street positional hole. We need a big hand and a good box. I'll play Offense. Pegging: 3-6-6-6 would be better for Defense. Flushes normally peg well and are hard to read so I think 3-6S-7-8 will peg best. Summary: I think as we're looking for a big hand here that it is between 6-6-7-8 and 3-6-6-6. 6-6-7-8 has 11 cuts for 16-20pts 9 (6, 777, 888, 9999) while 3-6-6-6 has only 8 cuts for 18/20pts (333, 6, 9999), Admittedly the 7-8 is a much better discard than 3-6 but there's no guarantee it will hit and holding three 6s makes it less likely. So I'll throw the suited 3-6. |
Joined: February 2008 (5546 votes) Wednesday 12:20 PM
At 35*-58 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
________________________Pone's Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib_Total____W5 %___W6 % 3-6-6-6____13.30+(-2.13)+6.02=17.19____9.8____20.3 3-6S-78____11.43+(-2.00)+5.26=14.69____6.9____14.9 6H-6C-7-8__12.98+(-2.20)+3.33=14.11____6.4____14.6 Defense_______L5 %___L6 % 3-6-6-6________38.4___65.5 3-6S-78________44.1___73.9 6H-6C-7-8______42.0___73.4 3-6-6-6 is best for expected averages by 2.50pts over the flush and is considerably best for Win %s and very much lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-8 to discard. After the J cut I'll play Optimally to the lead (cautious offense). |
Sgt Pegger
Joined: July 2017 (528 votes) Wednesday 5:42 PM
bah.........bah...........bah |
Joined: January 2008 (846 votes) Wednesday 5:48 PM
Ditto |
Joined: January 2021 (1032 votes) Wednesday 8:38 PM
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