Friday 3:17 AM

As Pone with First Hand Show, we need Twenty Points, or TWICE that of (100% above) Pone Average, to defeat our Opponent, that smiling person who sits across from us, the one who now appears confident at Hole 111 as the Current Dealer.

A close Cribbage Endgame Battle usually has the scores set to be nearly the reverse of what we see here, with something like (111-101*), but today we find ourselves "Behind the 8 Ball" (and seemingly Behind a Plethora of Other Balls!).

Therefore, this is not a typical Endgame Battle, but rather a Special-Case, Desperation Offense Cribbage Endgame Scenario by none other than 🐈 EliteKitten111. I delight in negotiating my way through and solving these Cribbage Conundrums, but we may not wish to go in empty-handed:

We might need to imbibe a few shots of full-strength, Irish Duck Elixir before we try to tackle this one! I'll wait while you put in the order: "Irish Neat, with a Bourbon Back." 🍀 🦆 🥃 😝

"Sir, this is a Wendy's. And for Goodness Sake, it's 6 a.m." 🕕 🍔 🍟 🥨 🥓 🥤

Let's 'Cut to the Chase' and note that Toss (2 3) offers us Eight Cuts (444, 555, 66), or 8/46 equals 0.174, which means we have a 17% chance of obtaining Twenty-One Points or more, and it's likely our best hope. Frankly, Toss (2 3) is our ONLY hope! But it's still quite an interesting puzzle, because of the possible ramifications that may occur during the pegging, which we'll get into shortly. Soon, we'll enjoy a deep dive into the Pegging Pool.

It's vital to note that after Toss (2 3), we also have a whopping Thirty-Five Cuts (333, 444, 555, 66, 7777, 9999, TTTT, JJJJ, QQQQ, KKKK), or 35/46 equals 0.761, which means we have a 76% chance of obtaining Fourteen Points or more, and this additionally means that if we can peg Six Holes (gasp!), we can then probably reach the Finish Line about 76% of the time!

The reason this latter calculation is so important is of a at least a three-fold possible benefit to us, and this is because of what follows:

(1) Not only could a 6 Card Lead get PAIRED, handing us almost certain VICTORY (unless the Dealer holds the "case" 6 Card), but in addition:

(2) If the Dealer responds to our 6 Card Lead with any of the various Sixteen "X" Cards (and these account for nearly 35% of the remaining deck, since we have yet to see any of these; even after an "X" Card Cut, it's a 33% figure), and if the Dealer is holding either of the familiar (5 X X X) or (5 5 X X) Hands, the pegging will almost definitely proceed:

Pegging: 6 (6) X (16) 6 (22) 5 (27) 4 (31-5), and now, assuming we have one of those aforementioned Fourteen-Point Hands, those that we already have shown earlier will manifest 76% of the time, we'll now be holding our Lone 5 Card, while the Dealer must lead either an "X" Card or a 5 Card, and we'll only need to peg an additional One Point in order to go the distance, 'cover the chasm' and WIN with our First Hand Show! However, should neither of those previous two things occur:

(3) During a second volley of pegging, if we are leading from any two card duos (4-5, 4-6, or 5-6) that comprise the ubiquitous 4-5-6 Run, as long as the Dealer is 'stuck' holding the third or "missing" card of such an impending Run, we could actually conclude the pegging with (15-6)! Imagine That!

The combined effects of having a 17% chance to WIN without having to peg anything whatsoever, plus another 76% chance of winning if we can manage to peg Six Holes, should produce a somewhat reasonable aggregate chance of around 25% of actually prevailing and winning from such a Doomsday-Looking Position.

Any time we can conclude the Pegging Phase by leading in a 'Two-Cards against One-Card' volley, specifically while holding ANY PAIR, or while holding either: 4-5, 4-6, or 5-6 duos, we have a small chance to peg Half-a-Dozen Holes! Keep this tactic in mind during ANY Special-Case, Desperation Offense Cribbage Endgame Scenario, especially when holding such powerful and versatile cards.

Ironically, when we looked at (3 4 5 6) yesterday, and I said, "the stellar Four-Card-Run [with a 5 Card] of them all is 3-4-5-6, which has an Expected Average closer to Ten Points!" But today, WE NEED TWICE THAT AMOUNT! No other discard other than Toss (2 3) can in fact produce anything more than Sixteen Points. Therefore, it's overwhelmingly and abundantly clear what we need to do.

🍀 🍀 🍀 🍀 🍀 🍀 🍀 🍀 🍀 🍀 🍀 🍀

Let's Toss (2 3) today without any hesitation or reservations. A quick discard might make the Dealer nervous, and nervous players will frequently make pegging mistakes. When we're trying to WIN from an untenable score like (101-111*), it's important to use any and every strategic, tactical, and/or psychological maneuver we have at our disposal, and making a quick and concise decision in such a dire Relative Position, along with projecting an 'air of confidence,' can often place a tremendous amount of pressure upon our Opponent. And there is no rule against it, and as far as anyone knows, we're far from breaching the bounds of etiquette.

After the King Cut, we now hold Fourteen Points in our Hand, which reliably gets us to Hole 115, so now we need to peg those Six Points in order to WIN. Make sure you study and understand those numbered items: (1), (2), and (3) above, regarding the pegging. It's a reach to be sure, but it's not quite over yet! Also, we must peg all that we can, because there is still a remote chance that the Dealer, even with a Deuce and a Trey (supplied by us) in the Crib, could come up "short" of Hole 121.

We could very well find ourselves as the Next Dealer (with the Pegging Advantage) staring at a scrumptious score of something such as (117*-120), with a nearly 9% chance of a Gnarly Jack Cut occurring; Oh, wouldn't it be lovely to see that smile disappear from our Opponent's face when he or she has to lead while we sit Two Holes Away from ripping his or her heart out?! You know, Real Fun Cribbage Endgame Stuff.

Let's lead a 6 Card from our PAIR, and hope the Dealer is foolish enough, after maybe deciding to Keep (4 5 5 6), to PAIR our lead, and give us this VICTORY! We could also WIN if we can 'snag' a 4-5-6 Run for (15-6) with our Last Card Played, so NEVER GIVE UP!

Wordle 1,175 3/6 (I'm fairly sure we've all seen this before.)

⬛⬛⬛⬛🟨
⬛🟨⬛🟨🟨
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Friday 3:28 AM

Is 21 or 24 worth it? Is a 6-5-4 peg opportunity worth it after the cut? Are Chances after they will have only eight points after this hand plays out. Wish a couple of hands would have played out different earlier. All I got and all I can see we can attempt here. Cut better. dec

Friday 3:42 AM

Chips to the center. Dealer is going out, so not that worried what i toss. All offense.

Friday 4:00 AM

This game was over before we saw the show card.

Friday 4:27 AM

Have to go for 24 in this position.

I need to practice my cutting!

Friday 4:56 AM

Echo. 6 lead.

Friday 4:59 AM

Friday 5:06 AM

I'll jump on the midnight train as well. Have to shoot for a 4-5-6. Sometimes there is no magic left in the wand. Chalk up an L.

Friday 5:34 AM

Oh dude. Why did you do it. We here all live to see a 100% hand. Surely you could have snuck in at a minute to midnight before you shattered our dreams

Friday 6:39 AM

Tuff spot....tuff toss... time to close my eyes & jump. I will likely lead the 4 but have been known to lead the 6.

Friday 6:56 AM

Damn the torpedoes!! I will lead with a 6.

Friday 7:13 AM

96% chose to keep the 4-5-6 double run, as did I. The cut give me 14 - pegging 6 as pone is near impossible, unless 1) I am playing with a very inexperienced opponent or 2) opponent has a somewhat similiar hand and is forced to play into me for a run. [I played yesterday, IRL, and my worthy opponent ended up in the stink hole twice and losing the games because he could not peg one. Oh my, was he pissed!] At any rate, I don't see pegging 6 here, so it's a loss for me...

Friday 7:38 AM

The daily cribbage hand gets emailed to me at 9AM Eastern DT. By the time I am on the site there are numerous posts. How do I get to have the Daily cribbage hand email me earlier??

Friday 7:55 AM

Can't care about their crib--they're going out if we don't make it.

Friday 8:07 AM

I’ll toss 2-3 and need a big cut to win this one.

Friday 9:20 AM

Cannot be defensive in this position. Keep max points and learn to lead the standard 6 for possible 5 traps, as JQT shows above, which happens often.

Friday 10:37 AM

I don't think we need worry about throwing 2-3 as Dealer only needs 10pts anyway. We need to either go out with a big hand or a good hand with some excellent pegging. 4-5-6-6 is ideal for trapping a 5 for 5pts. So I'll keep 4-5-6-6 and throw 2-3 and lead a 6.

Friday 10:37 AM

At 101-111* playing an Offense strategy the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total___Win %___Loss %
4-5-6-6____14.87+1.98+(-7.17)=9.68____28.5____71.5
3-4-5-6C____9.67+1.30+(-4.39)=6.58_____3.2____86.2

4-5-6-6 is better for expected averages by 3.10pts but more importantly it has by far the best chance of winning. So I'll select 2-3 to discard.

After the K cut I'll lead a 6 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Points
6____________________1.93
5____________________0.93
4____________________0.89

Friday 12:57 PM

Rolling with the other 100% of commenters today. It doesn’t matter what we throw, dealer almost certainly will score 10 points this hand, and if not, will count first next time around. Our only shot at winning is to either score 21 or 24, or we peg at least 4 points and are able to get there with 16.

Today, we did get the 16 cut, so take any and all pegs offered. The optimist in my says there’s still a chance!

Friday 1:21 PM

Same as everyone else

Friday 5:12 PM

Going for the Hail Mary.. only shot we've got.

Friday 5:47 PM

Well - if there was ever a situation which warranted the statement "Go BIG or Go HOME", this would be the perfect illustration!