Saturday 3:32 AM

I went low and should have went high. Lead the 9.

Saturday 3:50 AM

Always keep the Jack

Saturday 4:16 AM

Queens and fives help boost this keep. Now we need some defense on the pegging with a high hand count I will lead one of the nines. dec

Saturday 4:31 AM

Need to get past Hole 95, and Jack can be a 2-point swing; otherwise would prefer not to throw the 8 either.

Saturday 4:58 AM

3-8 and 3-J are very close. Dealer is slightly short, so try to be defensive. Does this Dealer tend to pitch mid-cards?

Saturday 5:02 AM

I'll keep the Jack. A potential two point swing, as Dan states above.

All Ten #719
10/10
1✅ 2✅ 3✅ 4✅ 5✅ 6✅ 7✅ 8✅ 9✅ 10✅
https://beastacademy.com/all-ten

Solved them in order today too.

Saturday 5:12 AM

Gramma Anastasia said "try not to give 'em a Jack."


I score keeping the Jack at 11.43 and giving up the Jack at 11.3. Not much of a difference, but the show card sure did make it a difference.

Saturday 5:24 AM

Beware of a flush that starts with just four points … Mark & Jazz have given us insight on J verse 8 across the board ..your call ..for me the J stays ..not risking two points for dealer @ this score

Saturday 5:26 AM

I'm with Gramma Anastasia, and others.

Saturday 5:50 AM

Keeping the Jack!!

Saturday 6:13 AM

I am pretty sure I read somewhere in Colvert’s book that when discarding from a straight it’s best to give the high card to the opponents crib and the low card to your own. Hence, my discard. I understand J’s have added value (as seen with today’s cut). C’est la vie.

Saturday 6:31 AM

Not thrilled about a 3-8 suited discard here, but I’m not going to toss the Jack instead, or dissolve four points at this stage of the game. We need to stay in contention while keeping our opponent under control, I’d like to see them no further than hole 108.

Looks like we guessed right with the cut! We are now guaranteed hole 102, so I will choose defense and try to keep our opponent within reach. Lead the 9. If it is paired, I’ll dump the lone J. Hoping dealer doesn’t have the same ranking cards as us, or it could be trouble for us in our second and third pegging sequences. Either way, scoring 16 puts us in a much stronger position than we entered this hand with, hopefully we can secure a win here

Saturday 8:35 AM

Was gonna go 3-8 or 3-J. Gotta keep 8pts to get in position while keeping them short. Figured 3-8 would be less dangerous since I have two nines already that would help out an 8.

Saturday 8:36 AM

Our Opponent is Ahead and Dealing, and we are trailing by Half-a-Dozen Points as we come crashing onto Fourth Street. 🚧

We need Ten Points by completion of this deal to be at the Fourth Street Par Hole 96, and every point we can reach beyond this target shall boost our chances of going out after the completion of two more deals that follow this one, or a complete cycle. But our Opponent is slightly "off cycle" and is therefore not fully in control of this game, so it's possible we can "turn the tables" and take charge via a fortuitous Cut Card.

We were dealt a FLUSH and a choice of two different Double Runs, but these ideas are of course all mutually exclusive.

The FLUSH or Keep (3c 8c 9c Jc) and Toss (9 T) begins with just Four Points in our Hand, and yet it entails throwing Touching Cards 9-T into the Opposing Crib, so if we were looking for an idea that gets us nowhere, then this might be it;

The lower-ranking Double Run or Keep (8 9 9 T) and Toss (3 J) allows us to begin with Eight Points in our Hand, and we would have Sixteen Cut Cards (6666, 7777, 888, 99, TTT) that yield a Dozen Points or more, and 16/46 equals 0.348, thus it shall occur around 35% of the time;

The higher-ranking Double Run or Keep (9 9 T J) and Toss (3 8) also allows us to begin with Eight Points in our Hand, and we would once again have Sixteen Cut Cards (5555, 6666, 99, TTT, JJJ) that yield a Dozen Points or more, and as we already know, 16/46 equals 0.348, thus it shall occur around 35% of the time.

The plot doth thicken as we discover that Toss (3 8) actually puts more energy into the Enemy Crib than Toss (3 J), that is, if you are looking at the charts compiled by Schell, or Colvert, or Hessel, or Rasmussen. The Jack, however, is an insidious card in Cribbage, as it not only puts more "oomph" in the Opponent's Crib about 25% of the time due to Nobs, but it simultaneously diminishes or subtracts a similar amount from our own Hand precisely the same percentage of time.

But the actual difference between Toss (3 8) and Toss (3 J) is not very much, perhaps just a few tenths of a point! Therefore, can we choose either discard because nothing matters anyway? It's interesting to note that the Expected Average of either Double Run is nearly identical as well, and we get just a few tenths of a point more in favor of the higher-ranking cards.

This is one of those mysterious puzzles, because while the Expected Averages tend to favor the higher-ranking Double Run, the Win/Loss percentages that I obtained with Rex Crib seems to favor the lower-ranking Double Run! And, we're not only close enough to the Fourth Street Par Hole 96 to make those percentages be important, I think we're also close enough to the end of the game to make the Win/Loss percentages paramount. 🔱

It doesn't seem satisfactory to make our decision based upon a few tenths of a point, but there is one additional factor that 'clinched' it for me. The Cut Card that can hurt us the most as Pone is often a 5 Card Cut, because the Dealer gets to benefit from the Cut Card TWICE, and since Cribbage uses a standard deck of playing cards with Sixteen of the Fifty-Two Cards assigned to a value of Ten, this means that from 30% to 35% of the deck consists of these "X" Cards that score if the Cut Card is a 5 Card.

Holding the higher-ranking Double Run gives us what I call "5 Card Cut Insurance," which basically means that if we do indeed get a 5 Card Cut, we're holding a Hand that will benefit, in this case by an additional Four Points. Doing this will help prevent our Opponent from getting a "Run-Away" condition as we reach Fourth Street.

But be aware that the program does still seem to prefer the lower-ranking Double Run, and the reason(s) why this is true seems to be rather elusive. Hence, I posted this puzzle! What do you think? I believe that I'm going against the logic of the program here, but it's not without some deep analysis.

Let's Toss (3 8) today. Will our Hand be stronger? Maybe by a few tenths of a point, sure. Will we peg more, or defend better during the pegging? Possibly, by a fraction of a point. Will the Opponent's Crib be safer? It's likely to be maybe a tenth of a point safer.

None of these reasons are really compelling, and so we ask ourselves, "What Cut Card could help the Dealer the most?" Without seeing the cards, we can only guess, and with Fourteen "X" Cards still extant, these represent 14/46 equals 30% of the remaining deck.

After the Jack Cut, we now have a bountiful Sixteen Points in our Hand! Let's lead a 9 Card from our Powerhouse PAIR. If we peg the average Two Holes, we should end up as Next Dealer at about Hole 104. We could soon push for that Goal Line and try to WIN this game as we tally our next Crib! 🍰 ☕

Wordle 1,176 4/6 (often it's a burdensome title)

⬛🟨🟨⬛⬛
⬛⬛🟨🟨🟨
⬛🟨🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Saturday 8:50 AM

I hate the 8 to the pones crib in any combination. 9 drops first.

Saturday 12:48 PM

I'll not consider the flush as it starts with 4pts fewer so it's just the two double-runs:

9-9-10-J: 8pts - 5pts (Schell: 5.05) = 3pts

8-9-9-10: 8pts - 4¾pts (Schell: 4.86) = 3¼pts

Potential:

9-9-10-J: Improves with 5555, 6666, 888, 99, 101010, JJJ, QQQQ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12/15/16pts with 5555, 6666, 999, 101010, JJJ = 17 cuts. Plus nine club cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

8-9-9-10: Improves with 5555, 6666, 7777, 888, 99, 101010, JJJ = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 12/15/16pts with 7777, 888, 99, 101010 = 12 cuts.

Position:

We need to be as far past 96pts as we can so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg similarly. Perhaps 8-9-10-10 slightly better.

Summary:

8-9-9-10 has the better starting value but only by ¼pt which is almost counter-acted by the nob potential. They both have the same number of cuts for improvement but 8-9-9-10 has 12 cuts for 12-16pts while 9-9-10-J has 17 cuts for 12-16pts. So I'll throw the 3-8.

Saturday 12:48 PM

At 86-92* playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Dlr's
Defense___Hand__Pegs____Crib____Total___W2 %____W3 %
9-9-10-J___10.54+(-3.09)+(-4.87)=6.71____12.3____42.9
8-9-9-10___10.35+(-2.96)+(-5.04)=6.57____13.1____43.6

Defense______L2 %____L3 %
9-9-10-J______26.5____47.7
8-9-9-10______26.6____46.5

9-9-10-J is better for expected averages0.14pt. but 8-9-9-10 is slightly higher for Win %s and lower for Loss %s. So in this critical board position at the last corner I'll decide based on Win/Loss %s and select 3-J to discard.

After the J cut I'll lead a 9 and play Defense:

Lead___________Dealer's Pegging points
9______________________(-2.74)
8______________________(-3.13)
10_____________________(-3.15)

Saturday 12:54 PM

The J could be a critical card for a swing of points one way or another at this delicate position. By all means, keep it in your hand if there is another better alternative. In this case, throwing the (3 8) is paramount, especially once another J is cut to give the dealer what could be a precious 2 points. I'll still take 16 points for a double run. Lead a 9 and try to prevent pegs as much as possible here.

Saturday 9:43 PM

Okay, so we both got a little from the cut. Would you lead the 9 from here and take any safe pegs? Thinking that’s what I would do.

Sunday 1:20 AM

The discard tables told me to throw the j rather than the 8. It would have helped to know what the cut was going to be.