Sunday 3:21 AM

With these cards unless they have similar cards should be able to play defense. The strength of these cards should produce enough to count out. dec

Sunday 4:29 AM

John has said in the past that discarding 2-3 whenever you have the chance, will seldom be too far wrong. I've chosen 5-5, but I do wonder what A455 (2-3) might do today?

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
8th Sep 2024
🏆Score: 121 to 110
🌋SP: 1645
📅Streak: 15
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/239/3333658/1

My discards:

1. 9-J
2. A-2
3. J-Kcl?
4. K-A
5. 2-8
6. 2-4
7. 3-3

Sunday 4:29 AM

55 might be a liability. If the pone has all low cards then I lose. Can you dodge a wretch?

Sunday 4:33 AM

I pitch those 5's. I cannot peg out from here and I do not want to give Pone the chance to trap a 5. Play defense. If Pone leads a small card, I better guess well what to play.

Sunday 5:20 AM

My logic was different, though I agree on the need for cards to peg defensively. My other thought iis that the A2 to crib is unlikely to get us out this hand, but the chance of a double run plus 5s to the crib does.

Sunday 5:23 AM

Should be able to avoid pegs with this arrangement.

Sunday 5:39 AM

I score the 5s toss at 18.6 and the A-2 toss at 17.9.

Sunday 5:55 AM

We are Ahead and Dealing at a score of (109*-108), so things look Hunky-Dory on our side of the board, and therefore, as long as our Opponent doesn't navigate a total of Thirteen Holes (or Three Points above Pone Average), with combined Pegging and First Hand Show, we should prevail.

As the Current Dealer, we shall always peg at least One Hole for either a "go" or for Last Card, so the actual burden on our Pegging, Hand, and Crib is a combined Eleven Points, which is Five Points LESS than the Dealer Average, so our "performance" can be 30% below average and we should still be able to deliver.

Our main concern is to inhibit Pone's Pegging, since it's the only way we can influence the 'Final Resting Place' of Pone's Front Peg at the conclusion of this deal.

It appears that we have three main ideas here:

(1) The Double Run Idea: Keep (3 4 5 5) and Toss (A 2), which gets help from every Cut Card EXCEPT the Four 9 Cards (9999), but since it already begins with the certainty of Eight Points, it shouldn't be lacking when it comes to tallying up our own total.

(2) The Higher-Ranking Run-of-Four Idea: Keep (2 3 4 5) and Toss (A 5), which gets help from EVERY CUT CARD, and with one 5 Card sent to our Crib, that establishes a Crib Value of about 5.45 Points.

(3) The Lower-Ranking Run-of-Four Idea: Keep (A 2 3 4) and Toss (5 5), which also gets help from EVERY CUT CARD, and with two 5 Cards 'stoked' in our Crib, that looks forward to a Crib Value of close to Nine Points! But it doesn't guarantee it.

On an open board, if Relative Scores were not important, it should be fairly obvious that Toss (5 5) gives us the best "Balance of Power" since Toss (5 5) has a Crib Value of nearly Nine Points, and the Hand 'hits' on Every Cut Card. Even Toss (2 3) will likely find itself among the Top Three Dealer Discards if we were not in an Endgame Battle.

The burning question is: Does Toss (5 5) make sense at the given score? The fact is, the Double Run is indeed the most dangerous pegging hand of the bunch today. But without qualifying it further, we are not doing our due diligence!

These are all active pegging cards, and from what I can ascertain, (A 2 3 4) is the SECOND-MOST DANGEROUS PEGGING HAND! And the added NET Pegging Loss with the Double Run appears to 'tack on' just a mere Quarter-Point more as a Pegging Baggage Fee! That, while I madly mix my metaphors, is probably worth the effort of hauling that Double Run onto the "Pegging Plane" today as our 'beverage of choice.'

Like yesterday, we find ourselves in a bit of a quandary between what seems good for our own position, and what might be required to control the Opponent's position. We can see that the Double Run supplies us with a lot more offense, and virtually guarantees that we can reach the goal line, but could it also jeopardize the game DEFENSIVELY by allowing Pone to peg just enough additional points to defeat us? And once again, I am here with more questions than answers.

Yesterday, even upon seeing and knowing the program's decision, I went against it, and I tried to formulate the reasons why I still thought my solution was correct. Today, I may end up doing the same, and we shall see how the votes are distributed, and what the program chooses as a solution. I was greatly encouraged by all of the votes yesterday that agreed with my own decision, and it's yet to be seen if such support will occur again today.

Scoring those Dozen Points that we need from the combined totals of our Pegging, Hand, and Crib should not be a problem, whether we hold either Run-of-Four, or whether we retain the Double Run, but having the Double Run makes obtaining those points LESS of a problem. Thus, as we already anticipated, our decision is a balancing act that is based upon our ability to defend during the Pegging Phase of the game, and the strength of our Hand and Crib.

Many players become too focused upon holding points in Endgame Scenarios such as this, and it's an aspect of Cribbage in which a bit of study can reap rather large rewards. It does little good to hold a stronger Hand with a near-certain chance of having enough points, if doing so means we give our Opponent vastly-increased odds of pegging better such that we double or triple our odds of losing before we even get to tally those points!

But what actually is the COMBINED "Stronger Hand plus Crib" here? Toss (5 5) is what effectively gets the highest overall Combined Score, but it also begins with a weaker Hand, and thus it possibly entails more RISK.

It looks like the Double Run may be risky during the pegging, but in fact, it's unlikely to surrender more than a Quarter-Point higher than the Four-Card-Run. And, while Toss (5 5) will produce the highest overall yield, it does so by "hitting" a very large tally some of the time, with very little occurring some of the time. It's not easy to see at first, but from a bit of analysis, the Double Run is "Mr. Reliable" in that while it doesn't have the highest Expected Average, it will very reliably get us those needed Eleven Points between Hand and Crib that we need after the pegging.

Let's Toss (A 2) today, and celebrate the inherent beauty of the counter-intuitiveness of it all. Somehow, it's probably wrong, but 'wrong' is the new 'right' today. Or, don't overthink it. Tough crowd (so far) I see.

After the 4 Card Cut, we're loaded for grizzly! We have Sixteen, but no Fifteens, imagine that. We got us a real boatload. What should we do if Pone leads 6 Card? (4 Card). What about a Trey Lead? (4 Card). What have we done?!

In a day or two, RAS shall return from the Blue Mountains, hopefully with a Big Trout, or at least a story. Next weekend, if I'm not mistaken, RAS puts an 8-7 in his Birthday Crib! 🎂 🌻 🍎
https://youtu.be/jniNETA36Us

Wordle 1,177 3/6 (attracted albeit artistically)

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Sunday 5:56 AM

Not one, but two 5's in the crib here dealing from this hole? Plus added control and safety in the pegging (which I'm sure is the "crux" of the matter and the reason for this challenging little puzzle!) Sign me up for a (5 5) discard any day.

Sunday 6:09 AM

Ras’s Big Hand rule says…Dealer can discard 5/5 if the remaining keep can get to 12 points with the cut. To paraphrase Jazz’s increasingly famous cribbage theorem ..the big hand rule is the correct answer until it isn’t. The kept run maxs at ten..but my choice is still 5/5.

Sunday 6:32 AM

I’m tossing 5-5 today. Considered A-2, 2-3, and 5-5. Our biggest priority is not allowing our opponent to peg. I think any of these combinations will give us enough to go out or be very close. People tend to hold 5s, and it’s very uncommon to discard for pone to discard a 5, so tossing 5-5 takes away pone’s most likely pair card from our hand. From here, it’s defense on all fronts, and hopefully pone doesn’t have a monster hand!

Sunday 7:12 AM

Double run in hand may be hard to avoid them pegging. Put 2-3 in the crib and the Ace in hand might be an escape card in the pegging.

Sunday 7:56 AM

Interesting.... my choice while voted as the most popular choice (percentage wise), is the least popular on the comments side.

I like the double run aspect and the fact that the 9 is the only cut that misses this hand. They need 13 combined so we're in decent shape but we will have to be careful with the pone needing to peg something on us.

Sunday 9:19 AM

Sunday 9:46 AM

Glad to be aligned with most of the comments. With decent cards like this, I’m not afraid of counting out in my next counts; I’ve just got to survive the play AND my opponent’s hand. Average says I will, but I wanted to make sure and played a safer hand. I also considered a gap 2-3 toss for a way to get out of a run, but I couldn’t bring myself to hamstring my points quite that much.

Sunday 9:52 AM

Seems we’re in ultra defensive mode. Can’t give any pegs so I am keeping my best peggers.

Sunday 11:23 AM

With the Sarge and JQT today. Both top hands extremely dangerous pegging-wise. I feel A234 is worse, and both hands horrible with a 3 or 4 lead. At least with this hand maybe get away with a 5 on a 3 lead, or pair a 4 lead. Best I've got.

Sunday 12:30 PM

Not overly worried about getting my 12 today with a 2-3, an A-4, and two 5s. Could we miss? Sure, it's possible, but I'm not going to stress it.

Pegging is not my strength, but I know 5s can be abused, and while it's not much, the 4 card run has more space. I'm willing to be convinced otherwise, but this is what I'd do in a game.

Sunday 12:40 PM

Both hands are dangerous but I think I would have more control with the 5's

Sunday 1:53 PM

5 5 to my crib.