Monday 3:08 AM

I prefer not to give away Jacks because of the point swing mentioned by Dan the other day, but J8 from these seems best.

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
9th Sep 2024
🏆Score: 121 to 107
🌋SP: 1720
📅Streak: 16
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/240/3333658/1

Discards:
1. 7-9
2. A-8
3. Q-Q
4. A-8
5. 4-9
6. 6-K
7. 2-3
8. 9-K
9. 2-4
10. 3-J

Monday 3:12 AM

Gets us well beyond 2nd street par hole 44. 🍂

Monday 3:35 AM

I will play my position here. dec

Monday 4:13 AM

Not excited to toss 10-J, but the remaining hand is too strong for me to split another way.

Monday 4:54 AM

The problem with 7889 is not much helps. Probably 12 in and 12 out. I'll keep my sure 12. Lead the 8.

Monday 5:15 AM

I score the double run (10-Jack toss) at 15.2 while keeping the flush gets 11.1. The other double run (7-Jack toss) also scores 11.1.

With the 4 show card scoring 15.2 ain't gonna happen.

Monday 5:39 AM

Keeping the 12 and shot for 24. Keeping the pedal to the metal.

Monday 5:48 AM

In his video series, week 5, Ras devotes a class on keeping the max points or not… today keeping max points ,imo , is the best answer from this score .. keeping max points often is not correct because of board position ..if so inclined have a look and also open the pdf associated with it ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rClefSwhBw&feature=youtu.be

Monday 5:49 AM

I’m not keeping the flush, am giving dealer 10 J because it means I keep a strong hand.

Monday 5:58 AM

Yep, assured of solid position and perhaps much more.

Monday 6:49 AM

cutting for 24... fingers crossed. Flush is, to me, a close second.

Monday 7:51 AM

I can't see any option on this hand but to hold the 7-8-9 double run and hope for a 6-7-8-9 cut. Such was not the case, with an ugly 4 of spades. popping up. Ended up at 56-53 on CripPro, for a net loss of 2 points, but now it's my crib!

Monday 7:57 AM

I’m in good position here. I’ll take my 10 and a toss them 8-J. A lot of cuts will help me here as well.

Monday 8:24 AM

I am usually not one to throw away a solid 12-point hand but..... we are in good position & like I always say "I hold the flush apart from the other 2 cards and then make those 2 cards justify not going with the flush" and today for me, they could not. Probably lead the 8.

Monday 8:24 AM

The flush does (barely) maintain our par position and attempts to minimize Dealer's chances to catch up, but I want to be farther up the board. D8 lead.

Monday 8:29 AM

Is it greedy to hold this way, just because our club pays a pretty good bonus to hit the straight flush? (Although in my defense, I also far prefer the J-8 throw over the J-10).

Monday 9:56 AM

Nice to return to this extended family after spending a few days with 5/7 great grandchildren. Didn't know would live this long as oldest of those great grandkids is 15 years. Now to this puzzle. Key to all choices is that n/d of this hand needs upcoming deal in or beyond 2nd street CPZ (43-47). Lead the 8D and take any pegs offered. with dealer at hole 30 n/d has distinct relative positional advantage. Why not extend it with little risk? That's the challenge this hand - to take all points offered. Remotely considered 8-J discard.

Monday 9:57 AM

Monday 10:36 AM

Keeping the points this time. Keeping the straight flush briefly crossed my mind, but I think it’s important to keep what’s guaranteed here. A low card cut won’t do either hand any good, nor will a Q or K, so there’s a good chance what we see is what we get. I’ll lead the 8.

Monday 12:27 PM

Do we keep the running flush for 10pts or the double-run for a dozen?:

7-8D-9-10: 10pts - 4½pts (Schell: 4.59) = 5½pts

7-8-8-9: 12pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.63) = 6¼pts

Potential:

7-8D-9-10: Improves with 5555, 6666, 777, 88, 999, 101010, JJJ = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 13/16/18pts with 6666, 777, 88, 999, 101010 = 15 cuts. Plus 9 diamond cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

7-8-8-9: Improves with 6666, 777, 88, 999, 101010 = 15 cuts = 15/46 = 32.6% up to 16/20/21/24pts with 6666, 777, 88, 999 = 12 cuts.

Position:

We only need 9pts to reach 2nd street positional hole as Dealer so I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 7-8D-9-10 will peg slightly better.

Summary:

7-8-8-9 is better for starting value by ¾pt although the flush has an additional o.20pt. for a diamond cut. 7-8D-9-10 has more cuts for improvement and 15 cuts for 13-18pts. 7-8-8-9 has fewer cuts for improvement but 12 cuts for 16-24pts. Together with the better starting value I think I'll throw the 10-J.

Monday 12:27 PM

At 35-30* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total___W6 %____W7 %
7-8-8-9____14.17+1.15+(-5.71)=9.61____37.2____63.5
7-8D-9-10__12.35+1.22+(-4.29)=9.28____32.4____61.0
8-8-9-10___10.22+1.28+(-4.32)=7.18____25.4____53.5

Offense______L6 %____L7 %
7-8-8-9________11.2____12.6
7-8D-9-10_______8.9____13.1
8-8-9-10________8.8____17.0

7-8-8-9 is best for expected averages by 0.33pt. and is considerably best for Win %s. Although 7-8D-9-10 is slightly lower for Loss %s I'll still select 10-J to discard.

After the 4 cut I'll an 8 and play Defense;

Lead_____________Dealer's Pegging Points
8________________________(-2.35)
7________________________(-2.44)
9________________________(-3.03)

Monday 2:29 PM

Monday 8:50 PM