Saturday 3:21 AM

It's a New Game, and we dealt ourselves yet another Club FLUSH, and we are wont to wonder where scottcrib is getting all of these Club FLUSHES? Does he have a ♣♣♣♣ Club Discount, or a Club Membership, or is he part of some group or . . . Club?

Even without the FLUSH, this is a good puzzle, for if we ignore the suits for a moment, we have the Proverbial "Spare the Hand" (Rod) with Toss (7 7) and "Spoil the Crib" (Child) with Toss (4 J). That may be a bit of a forced, mixed-metaphor, or worse, as it's yanked right from the Old Testament, and it is akin to deciding whether we wish to endure a weak Hand or a weak Crib, because we don't want both. (At least I didn't call them "Envy" 👿 and 🦥 "Sloth." We'll save those for another day!)

The FLUSH adds in a Third Option, a Holy Trinity, so we may have to consult the Dead Sea Scrolls after all in order to have the wisdom to decipher this mystical puzzle.

If I haven't lost you already, here is where I may take issue with the way I look at some of these close, early-game puzzles. We're going to have three ideas to look at today, and if, according to the program, these all look to be within One-Tenth of a Single Point of one another, I'm going assert that it's a matter of "style" which idea should be chosen.

When two or more Discard Choices are very close, I will almost always pick the one that suits my own style of play, for better or worse; but sometimes, when I feel strongly that there is an important concept or lesson that is worthy of exploration and discussion with a particular discard, I will choose it if only to explore that concept that I believe is instructive and worthy of discussion.

Okay, we have a Club FLUSH after Toss (7d Jh), but what else is there except this Rub-a-Dub Club FLUSH? Toss (4 J) is an idea, I suppose. We cannot Toss (7 7) or Toss (A 4), can we? I mean, the rules certainly do allow it, but we've got to look at ourselves in the mirror at some point and say, "Did I do that?" Toss (7 7) is actually worth consideration, but let's "toss out" the Toss (A 4) idea right now so we can focus on what's important.

We can retain the FLUSH after Toss (7d Jh), or we can 'pitch' the 7 Card PAIR, or we can Toss (4 J). The podium is now full, and the Cribbage Table has thus been set: Three (ideas) for Supper. White tablecloth, elaborately-folded cloth napkins, chamber music, candlelight, wine that was on sale at Costco. 🍷

Both the FLUSH and the Toss (7 7) idea look 'Fine and Dandy,' but those who know me know that if we have an equal alternative idea, I am not a great fan of stowing a PAIR into my Crib. The 7 Card is a major connector, and Toss (7 7) has a superb Crib Value of almost Six Points, but we have an idea that can keep the 6 Card alongside the 7 Card PAIR, and this generates a possible Double Run from either an 8 Card or 5 Card Cut.

We may choose to retain the FLUSH, and since both of these are competing ideas, let's put the Toss (7 7) idea on the back burner for now. (Did you ever do this, then enjoy a big meal, and only much later, while washing the dishes, Zounds! You discover some tepid, gelatinous pot 🍜 of Lord-Knows-What sitting all by its lonesome self, unperturbed, lonely and forgotten on the back of the stove?)

A FLUSH seems like an obvious Defensive Pegging Hand to start a game as the First Dealer, but it entails a Toss (7 J) discard that feels whimsical and lackluster, and that's likely because it 'chimes in' at close to 3.5 Points, and it feels especially weak, as we just finished looking up Toss (7 7), and so we still have that Toss (7 7) taste in our mouth.

If we Keep (A 6 7 7) and Toss (4 J), which has a Crib Value close to Four Points, maybe Pone will cut us a 5 Card or an 8 Card, or an Ace or another 7 Card, or maybe a Deuce or a 6 Card or a 9 Card. That's Twenty-Four Cards (AAA, 2222, 5555, 666, 77, 8888, 9999), or MORE THAN HALF the remaining deck, that yield Six Points or more.

Meanwhile, if we did Toss (4 J), Thirteen Cards (AAA, 444, 5555, JJJ) will add something to our Crib, although Pone is unlikely to part with most of these. Are we just trying to ignore the FLUSH or does Toss (7 J) leave us unfulfilled? "Maybe it's a bit of both," as Forrest Gump once uttered.

Let's Toss (4 J) today. It may be 'inferior' by a few hundredths of a point, but it's an educational experience!

After the Qh Cut, we are stuck with Four Points in our Hand, but who knows: If Pone decided, after much consideration and consternation, to Toss (5 5), we shall have Eleven Points in our Crib! The problem with this line of reasoning however is twofold (1) Pone is NOT going to Toss (5 5), so get over it, but (2) If Pone ever does Toss (5 5), we probably don't want to even imagine what Pone's Hand was! But the Queen Cut would mitigate things and thus make it bearable.

But Wait: If Pone decided to Toss (A 5), we could have Nine Points in our Crib. Let it be so! But Wait Again: Toss (5 T), Toss (5 K), or Toss (5 6) gives us a healthy Ten Points as well! But why the obsession with Pone tossing us a 5 Card? First, we hoped for two of them, and then, at least one. Can something help us aside from a 5 Card?

Actually, I'm glad I asked! There are THREE ADDITIONAL Pone Discards that will give us a respectable Ten Points, and these are: First off, both Toss (A T) or Toss (A K) 'chime in' with Ten Points, thank you very much. And now, the last one: But Wait! Toss (A A) from Pone gives us, can it be? Yes, it's Eleven Points, just as yummy as Toss (5 5)!

That's Eight Discards that give us Nine Points or more today. Try and top that, Toss (7 J)! Remember how it was slowly discovered that discarding W-I-D-E, such as Toss (A K), which was once considered fairly safe, was sometimes more dangerous than discarding a Middle Card with an "X" Card? And didn't we recently discuss that Toss (A A) was "not too dangerous" when we were Pone? Ah, not today it isn't! I suppose that is enough exploration and "dissection of ideas" for one day.🌿

Wordle 1,197 4/6 (it's the thought that counts)

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Saturday 4:05 AM

Keeping the 677 together, and looking for an 8.

Saturday 4:14 AM

Later in the game I might adjust this. Here at the start I will play to my advantage. dec

Saturday 5:08 AM

Max hand meld potential and good pegging cards (5 trap) we might need if a bad cut. Yep, with that cut need to peg a little, but relatively safely.

Saturday 5:26 AM

I'm sure the flush won't be the choice of most of the commenters, but I like the guaranteed improvement, the defensive options, the A-4 for X cuts, the 4-6 and 6-7 five trap possibilities, and the magic eleven. There's lots to like here.

Dodged a bullet from Hurrican Helene as it veered east of us. Very thankful but also mindful of those that weren't so fortunate.

Saturday 5:37 AM

hmmm….I see i am an outlier so far. My reasoning was..as first dealer trying to achieve at least eight points & be defensive oriented. Flush starts with four and has only one losing cut ..a trey ..so a good % chance to have at least six in my keep. Between crib value and pegging I was looking for two more points. I now see the 667 and trap reasoning.. thx for those explanations. I just couldn’t get to the decision to abandon the remaining 15 Xs as cuts ..1/3rd of the deck.

Saturday 5:53 AM

I'm not as much of a flush fan as many, but I do have a soft spot for hands that improve with any cut. Playing defense on first hand I like the slightly more spaced hand today than the A-6-7-7. If non-dealer leads a mid card we could be in the pegging war they're looking for with that hand.

Saturday 6:33 AM

Playing defense at 0*-0, I will play it this way. A-6-7-7 is more likely to get jammed up in the pegging while A-4-6-X gives up fewer pegging points. A-6-7-7 has a much better max though of 16 points. A-4-6-J maxes out at only 10. Pairs in the Crib often fail. But this one star toss is a bit of an exception, as we are tossing ourselves two key connectors. We could hit big in the Crib. that's the idea anyway.

Saturday 6:34 AM

I like the flush just a bit better today as it leans towards defense. This flush also improves with every cut and if an 8 is cut, we still have 11 in our hand and 2 in the crib, compared to 14 in the hand with a 4-J discard. I will peg optimally with this hand but probably search for a 5 trap with the 4 and 6 as MarkTheShark details above. I’d also play on if an 8 is lead. If the opponent responds with a 9 or 6, we answer with the 6, either for a run of 4 or for a pair, then play the 4 for 31.

Saturday 6:58 AM

I tossed the 4-J to my crib but the Queen of Hearts showed up as the cut card. There is a song by that name with the recurring lyric "Playing with the queen of hearts, knowing it ain't really smart". Also, the card shows up in the Eagle's song "Desperado" in these lines "Don't you draw the queen of diamonds, boy She'll beat you if she's able You know the queen of hearts is always your best bet." Well, that's the extent of my wisom for today folks...

Saturday 7:13 AM

Not much to add at this late stage. J4 for me.

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
28th Sep 2024
🏆Score: 121 to 112
🌋SP: 1475
📅Streak: 16
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/259/3333658/1

1. 8K
2. 10-K
3. 5-10
4. A-J
5. 2-9
6. 7-K
7. A-2
8. 2-9
9. 6-7

Saturday 7:35 AM

I'm the wacko today. I wanted th 6-7-7 together, didnt want trash in my crib, so I went with putting a 5 in there instead.

Saturday 7:38 AM

Since no other commentor made this choice, I will make a rare comment---A-1 toss to the crib gives me a chance for a decent crib and, at the same time, keeps the 7-7-6 in tact.

Saturday 8:55 AM

3 (in a row) that think alike!

Saturday 9:23 AM

I failed to notice the flush, but I think I’d have thrown J 4 anyway.

Saturday 9:52 AM

Flush was too enticing for me to pass up.

Saturday 11:42 AM

Let's consider A-4-6-7C (7D-J), A-6-7-7 (4-J), A-4-6-J (7-7) and 6-7-7-J (A-4):

A-4-6-7C: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.53) = 7½pts

A-6-7-7: 4pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.88) = 7¾pts

A-4-6-J: 2pts + 5¾pts (Schell: 5.92) = 7¾pts

6-7-7-J: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.43) = 7¼pts

Potential:

A-4-6-7C: Improves with AAA, 2222, 3333, 444, 5555, 666, 77, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/10/11pts with AAA, 444, 5555, 77, 8888 = 16 cuts. Plus nine club cuts for 1pt extra for the flush = 9/46 = 0.20pt.

A-6-7-7: Improves with AAA, 2222, 5555, 666, 77, 8888, 9999 = 24 cuts = 24/46 = 52.2% up to 8/10/12/16pts with AAA, 2222, 5555, 77, 8888 = 17 cuts. Plus twelve heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

A-4-6-J: Improves with AAA, 444, 5555, 666, 8888, 9999 + 15xXs = 36 cuts = 36/46 = 78.3% up to 6/8/9pts with AAA, 444, 5555, JJJ = 13 cuts. Plus twelve heart cuts for 1pt extra for his nob = 12/46 = 0.26pt.

6-7-7-J: Improves with AAA, 2222, 5555, 666, 77, 8888, 9999, JJJ = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 6/10/12pts with 2222, 5555, 77, 8888 = 14 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is at 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

Both A-4-6-7C and A-4-6-J have good pegging cards and a 3-card magic eleven. The flush will be harder to read and I think will peg slightly best.

Summary:

A-6-7-7 and A-4-6-J have the best starting value by only ¼pt over A-4-6-7C. Although A-4-6-J has an additional ¼pt nob potential and should also peg very well. However, the flush has guaranteed improvement and 16 cuts for 8-11pts. Also it should peg best and has an additional 0.20pt. for a club cut. Therefore I think I'll throw the 7D-J to my box.

Saturday 11:42 AM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages sand Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-4-6-7C___7.46+(-2.15)+3.37=8.68____33.2____45.4
A-6-7-7____7.09+(-2.15)+3.71=8.65____32.2____45.4
A-4-6-J____4.78+(-1.89)+5.72=8.61____33.1____45.9
6-7-7-J____4.91+(-2.30)+5.44=8.05____31.6____44.7

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
A-4-6-7C______28.8____29.1
A-6-7-7_______25.8____27.7
A-4-6-J_______26.8____27.8
6-7-7-J_______26.6____28.7

A-4-6-7C is best for expected averages by a slender 0.03pt. over A-6-7-7 and 0.07pt. over A-4-6-J. A-4-6-j is very slightly best for Win %s and slightly lower than A-4-6-7C for Loss %s. So even though it is the beginning of the game because the difference in expected averages is so small I'll decide based on the Win/Loss %s and select 7-7 to discard.

After the QH cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Saturday 12:38 PM

Choosing defense, the A-4-6-J jumps out of this hand with 7-7 to crib. Was not on the same page as HalscribCLX yesterday. Today just an echo. That 3-card 11 (A-4-6) is the best in cribbage to close the count at 31-2 and avoid pages along the way. If choosing offense, without doing any scratch work, suspect A-6-7-7 would be the better choice. Play off the lead since dealer knows of 7 points, and dealer needs 7 to have 50/50 chance to win. Perhaps the crib will pick up an Ace, 7, or 8 discard. The crib average to own for 7-7 is 5.873. That starter card Q does not add anything; so, need a bit of help from n/d as to discard. Holding A-6-7-7 increases chance that n/d will toss one or mid cards or a small card and a mid-card. Scottcrib is definitely on a roll as to submitting fine quality puzzles.

Saturday 3:22 PM

I like to flush