Monday 4:11 AM

I wanted to keep the 7-8-9 together. Then I changed my mind.

Monday 4:30 AM

55K stays. 7-8 most logical to go. I'm a little shy of where I want to be. Peg optimally.

Monday 4:47 AM

Wordle 1,199 3/6 (unlimited storage) 🍨 🍒 🌿

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Monday 5:10 AM

Considered 5-5, 5-8, and 5-K with this hand…all are enticing as they are all strong throws to the crib. Since the most points we can keep in our hand is 6 and tossing 5-5 is only a sacrifice of 1, I’m going to throw the strongest discard of the options today and go from there. I’d also prefer not to split the 5s up. With neutral board position, will peg optimally today. To me, this includes playing 15-2 on a 7 lead, but not an 8 lead, as we have an “out” card for a 7-8-9 series but not for an 8-7-9 series. However, outside of a 7 lead, will play much more conservative to pone’s lead today.

Monday 5:15 AM

KAL79 speaks for me on this day.

Monday 5:31 AM

5-5 to our crib for me with this hand makeup.

Monday 6:17 AM

Twelve potential in main hand. whatever the average potential for 5-5 over 9. dec

Monday 6:22 AM

This is not quite Ras’s big hand rule which states that dealer sacrificing up to four points by sending 5-5 is ok if the remaining keep can cut to 12. No need to sacrifice four here although the remaining keep can indeed cut to 12. With N/der 14 away from 43 cautious pegging.

Monday 6:31 AM

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
30th Sep 2024
🏆Score: 121 to 113
🌋SP: 1470
📅Streak: 18
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/261/3333658/1

1. 6s-10d?
2. 10-K
3. A-8
4. 3-K
5. 2h-4
6. 2-8
7. 2-7
8. 4-J
9. 5-5

Monday 6:38 AM

Goodbye nickels. 55 much stronger than 78,especially when we have 9.

Monday 6:50 AM

Looking to get a lucky cut and I did! The smartest play here is the 5,5 to the crib but sometimes I like to roll the dice.

Monday 6:53 AM

Hmm 🤔

Monday 6:58 AM

I would have usually tossed the 5-5 since the rest can turn into a dozen,but I didn't like the useless K. May as wsell try it with a 5 in the crib, and see if I get a 6 or a A to go with the rest.

Monday 7:41 AM

Always try to get 5-5 to my crib. Not hard to do that today.

Monday 7:55 AM

I tossed the two 5s to my crib and the CribPro results are (51,40) which is a 10 point gain - not due to any large crib (which had a count of 6) but rather the pegging. I benefitted from the classic 7-8-6-9 play for a total of 7 points plus a pair at the end for another 3. Seems to me a very poor play for the pone holding a 7-8-9 hand to lead with the 7 or 8, but I guess sometimes it's unavoidable.

Monday 12:40 PM

I think it's between 7-8-9-K (5-5) and 5-5-9-K (7-8):

7-8-9-K: 5pts + 8¾pts (Schell: 8.79) = 13¾pts

5-5-9-K: 6pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.53) = 12½pts

Potential:

7-8-9-K: Improves with 55, 6666, 777, 888, 999, 10101010, KKK = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 8/10/12pts with 6666, 777, 888, 999 = 13 cuts.

5-5-9-K: Improves with AAAA, 55, 6666, 999 + 15xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 10/12/14pts with AAAA + 15xXs = 19 cuts.

Position:

We only need 14pts to reach 2nd street positional hole first as Pone. Every point past this increases our winning chances so I'll play cautious offense.

Pegging:

I think both hands will peg quite well. Playing more Defensively I think perhaps 55-9-K may peg better.

Summary:

7-8-9-K is better for starting value by 1¼pts. However, 5-5-9-K has more cuts for improvement and cuts for 10-14pts compared to 13 cuts for 8-12pts with 7-8-9-K. Will it make up the 1¼pts? I think it may so I'll throw the 7-8.

Monday 12:40 PM

At 30*-29 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total____W6 %____W7 %
7-8-9-K____6.80+(-2.07)+8.64=13.37____14.1____39.8
5-5-9-K____8.43+(-2.00)+6.36=12.79____12.9____38.3
5-7-8-9____7.93+(-2.15)+6.48=12.26____12.3____37.7

Defense_______L6 %____L7 %
7-8-9-K________9.5_____27.2
5-5-9-K________9.3_____27.4
5-7-8-9________9.9_____28.6

7-8-9-K is best for expected averages by 0.58pt.d is appreciably best for Win %s. It is about even for Loss %s with 5-5-9-K but I shall select 5-5 to discard.

After the A cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Monday 1:07 PM

With opponent needing 14 holes to reach 2nd street CPZ (43-47) for upcoming deal, chose defense strategy and will avoid pegs. Play the King on any mid-card lead as 7-8-9 will allow dealer to have pegging advantage in second phase if not jumping on a mid-card lead. Will play a mid-card on small card lead, making the count 11 on most of those. The Ace starter card doesn't look to be helpful although makes a 9-Q or 9-K_discard worth 10 points and those are very frequent n/d discards. Of course, it is that huge crib score for 5-5 that scores 8 or more points 81% of the time that is key to the decision here. BTW, 5-5 like other discards scores more on the other side of the board and tallies 8 or more 89.1% of the time.

Monday 4:36 PM

5-5 in the crib for me.

Monday 8:58 PM