October 1, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by goatman
49*-38  ?
47%
47%
18%
18%
14%
14%
8%
8%
4%
4%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Total votes: 261
goatman5 to the crib?
mrob2199

Joined: February 2009 (1518 votes)

Tuesday 3:02 AM
I like the 6 point flush with touching cards -it enables me to stash a 5 in the crib for better coverage
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4251 votes)

Tuesday 3:47 AM
Toss (5 Q) or Toss (5 K), and salt and pepper to taste. 🧂 🌶 🧄

Wordle 1,200 3/6 (data sliced and diced)

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🟨⬛⬛🟩⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
JQT says: I consider Toss (5 Q) to be about equal to Toss (5 K) as a Dealer Discard in Cribbage, because what the King gains in our Crib, will often be offset by holding an 'Edge' Card like a King in the Hand, a card that is less easily "trapped" into a Run, and that is also slightly statistically a bit safer during the pegging. 🌵
Ras2829 says: Hi JQT: Right on, the King is the best escape card in the deck if wishing to avoid pegs. The Ace at the other end of the deck does not enjoy such safety. Think HalscribCLX may choose to retain the King for that reason this day.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6552 votes)

Tuesday 4:34 AM
I guess King over Queen because of opponent tendencies ? 6 /2 works for me also. dec
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (162 votes)

Tuesday 4:59 AM
Assman says: Delicious
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4262 votes)

Tuesday 5:18 AM
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4089 votes)

Tuesday 5:23 AM
Surprised to see such a difference in the voting between Q5 and K5, (currently 18% vs 55% of 49 votes cast). Is one that much stronger than the other? They seem pretty similar to me.

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
1st Oct 2024
🏆Score: 121 to 111
🌋SP: 1570
📅Streak: 19
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/262/3333658/1

1. 6-Q
2. Q-K
3. 6-9
4. 4-4?
5. 9-10
6. A-Q
7. 6-9
8. 7-10?
9. 7-Q
Eolus619 says: morning James500..according to Ras..the K is the most frequent card n/der discards..but it is a close ..you can see in this link of the lowest average cribs for n/der discards how frequently a Q or K shows up.. https://www.cribbage.org/NewSite/tips/rasmussen7.asp
james500 says: Hi Bruce, thanks for for the feedback. My line of thinking was that the K is a little more isolated than the Q, so might fare worse in the crib.
fentesk says: I landed on the same choice with hand 8 and the 7-10, but also question the selection and added it as a future hand of the day to see what others say.
Eolus619

Joined: June 2020 (1505 votes)

Tuesday 5:24 AM
Need to be alert ..two ways to keep the flush and discard a five to the crib..I will start with a keep of six points & two in the crib….if you are in the favorable cut camp ..2.3.5.6.7.8.9 & all the remaining Xs add points
fentesk says: I think I know what you mean, but as a note, every choice that puts the 5 in the crib today leaves you with a flush. I agree with going X-5 today.
Eolus619 says: thx fentesk….your observation is well taken...i was focused on 5-6 as the other viable option
MarktheShark

Joined: January 2024 (232 votes)

Tuesday 5:47 AM
Pitching the Queen used to be standard for me, but Ras's experiences teaches us that the King is more likely to appear from Pone.
mfetchCT425

Joined: February 2009 (1489 votes)

Tuesday 6:23 AM
6-point flush with opportunities to grow and a top tier offensive discard in the 5-K to our crib works for me.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5316 votes)

Tuesday 6:57 AM
At hole 49 with the deal, have little concern for n/d position 11 holes behind. Proceed as though dealer has distinct advantage. Choosing offense, nothing comes close to discarding 5-K and holding the flush for six points. Starting with 8 points and a chance to cut many cards which would add value. Some computer- generated discard tables rate the 5-K and 5-Q with the same average. Suppose on the surface that ought to be true. The results tilt in favor of the 5-K since a King is the most common X-pointer discarded by n/d. Am confident of my empirical data as discarded to own crib 5-K 1,742 times 5/91 in live play, recorded the results with an average of 6.726, scores two points 50% less and scores 12 or more points 20% more often than does 5-Q. The 5-Q is a fine discard. I discarded 5-Q 1,251 times to own crib with an average of 6.593 7/91. Play off the lead although would play the Queen on a five lead. Otherwise use some caution on the pegging as pegging two to risk six is not necessary. Pair if it puts the count high enough to avoid the triple. Considered no choice other than suited 2-6-7-Q with 5-K discard. Combined values (+pegs, hand, and crib values) knock all other choices off the charts.
Ras2829 says: That 5-K scores 2 points 2.812%. Many page one discards score two points in excess of 20%: 2/2 and 6/6 20.498%; 3/3 21.272%; 7/7 22.011%; J/Q 23.065%; 4/4 23.705%; A/A 25.144%; 6/9 26.1%; 10/J 28.649%; A/3 30.195%; 8/8 30.313%; 2/4 31.014%; 3/4 31.578%; 6/7 33.291%; 8/9 33.6%; 9/9 34.146%; 6/8 37.662%; Q/Q 39.644%; and 10/10 40.384%. Note that many are pairs and start with two points and a great many three-card combinations add nothing to them. Of course, they score fewer 0-2 cribs on the other side of the board. Deduct 10% when tossed to opponent and add 10% for the number of cribs which score over 8 points on the other side of the board.
Ras2829 says: Guess should have labeled 0-2 points. A five with any card or a combination which totals 5 (A-4 or 2-3), and pairs start with two points. The average for those tends to run higher in most cases when compared to the cards of sequence (3/4, 6/7, etc.) or the gappers (A/3, 2/4, etc.) which start with zero. You didn't ask for all this though too warm right now to pick the rest of the pears. So, you're stuck with this cribbage trivia. Bet some of you are thinking: "hope it cools off soon so he can get back to the pears!"
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3159 votes)

Tuesday 7:33 AM
I agree with MarktheShark. In the past I would have tossed 5-Q (memory says Barlow recommends this) but with RAS's guidance I now toss K over Q all things being equal.
SallyAnn3

Joined: March 2020 (1035 votes)

Tuesday 7:46 AM
with the herd....unless I am playing a particular clubmate who tosses Q's instead of K's!
simon.meth says: Nice! Knowing particular opponents'tendencies, fine tunes the stats. :)
SallyAnn3 says: Iam not good at it at all. I know a player who knew almost everyone's tendencies, and was a top player because of it.I have a hard enough time with remembering what I put into my own crib LOL
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1049 votes)

Tuesday 9:39 AM
Same again.
kal79

Joined: April 2024 (176 votes)

Tuesday 9:39 AM
It pays to flush! It’s difficult to imagine myself tossing anything other than 5-Q or 5-K; both of these discards get us to 8 points immediately, three more than any other discard. I feel that the K is better suited for a discard because pone is more likely to toss a K to my crib than a Q, so I hope I can get that K (and 4 more points) out of my opponent today. As we are comfortably ahead and now have 10 points combined post-cut, I will lean towards defense pegging.
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1049 votes)

Tuesday 9:40 AM
RubyTuesday says: I’m the rebel today!
JJx7fan

Joined: December 2023 (42 votes)

Tuesday 12:28 PM
Keeping the flush and tossing a 5 to the crib. My crib I will toss the K, their crib I would toss the Q.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (5904 votes)

Tuesday 1:58 PM
I thought I saw 6 clubs. Oops. I would have tossed face-five if my eyes were a few years younger.
Ras2829 says: Hi Gougie00: There's hope for your eyes. Had 3 eye surgeries last year. Had been blind on the right side. Now have 20/16 vision right eye, 20/30 left eye, and working on 88 years. The third surgery was called a pars plana vitrectomy. The surgeon worked 1 hour and 20 minutes on the back side of my right eyeball. Amazing concentration. Never said a word to anybody until removing the hood from my head. He uttered three words only: "Everything went well!"
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (435 votes)

Tuesday 2:57 PM
I like the 5,6,7,Q or the 2,6,7,Q It was sort of a coin toss for me today. It really all comes down to ....who is my pone and what are their tendencies.
jmudge

Joined: July 2020 (821 votes)

Wednesday 2:45 AM
Running with the rest of the crowd this morning. Hope everyone has a groovy day!