October 2, 2024
49% 49% | |||||
27% 27% | |||||
11% 11% | |||||
5% 5% | |||||
4% 4% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
| Total votes: 282 | |||||
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Joined: October 2008 (4323 votes) Wednesday 3:29 AM
Typically, when throwing disparate ranking cards as the Dealer, and no two discards 'add up' to Fifteen, it's best to throw a Small Card with a High Card such as Toss (3 K) into our Crib as opposed to a Middle Card with a High Card Toss (9 K). šāš¦ŗ
But it's also usually better to put a Middle Card like a 9 Card into our Crib as opposed to an "X" Card like a King. However, as Toss (3 9) is 'helped' most by a "Same" Card (another Trey), the odds of getting that helper as a Cut Card or from Pone's Discard are now reduced by 25%, since we've already buried one of those four "Helpers"! āØ For this reason, it makes Toss (3 K) the superior Discard today, since four Deuces are still extant. Let's Toss (3 K) today. After the 5 Card Cut, we now have Ten Points in our Hand, with prospects for an average Crib. šŖ Eolus619 says: Morning John..your recent comments are unusually brief.i hope this is just a pause to refresh rather than health issues slowing you š¤š¤..if you do feel up to it..could you expand ..BRIEFLY ā¦to the why of..ā it's best to throw a Small Card with a High Card such as Toss (3 K) into our Crib as opposed to a Middle Card with a High Card Toss (9 K). ā JQT says: As Dealer Discards, if we look at "S" Small Cards (A, 2, 3, 4) alongside "X" Cards, as compared with "M" Middle Cards (6, 7, 8, 9) alongside those same "X" Cards, once we exclude any Jack vs. non-Jack, and exclude any potential Touching or Gapped Discards such as Toss (9 T) or Toss (8 T), we find that Toss (Small X) Dealer Discards exceed Toss (Middle X) Dealer Discards by an average of about 0.40 Points, which we can compute just from a Discard Table (Schell, Colvert, Hessel, Rasmussen, etc.). The reason is clear if we simply ask "What card(s) added to (Small X) equal Fifteen vs. what card(s) added to (Middle X) equal Fifteen?" There are a lot more ways to generate Fifteen with a Small Card than with a Middle Card, and it takes quite an exercise in probabilistic calculations to prove, but the answer is intuitive if we just think it through. Certain Key Connectors such as Treys and 7 Cards lead their surrounding peers, but if we compare Toss (3 K) with Toss (7 K), we see that the 0.40 differential remains in favor for the Small Card over the Middle Card. Placing more Small Cards into our Cribs is a way we can often generation some scoring from a lackluster arrangement such as (A 3 6 T Q K), and it's a Cribbage Tactic that I dubbed, "Pin Action" circa 2006, and used a few years later here on Hand of the Day. Employing Pin Action, we would choose Toss (A 3) in order to possibly generate some points in our Crib, since our Hand is terrible and only gets help from One Card (the Cut), while our Crib gets help from Three Cards (the Cut, and Pone's Discard). š³ ā š§ Eolus619 says: thx Johnššš |
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Joined: April 2008 (6625 votes) Wednesday 3:53 AM
Stay the course . Making all three facets work here. Play on hopefully in the pegging. dec Eolus619 says: Morning decā¦if n/der lead a X would you play your five for 15/2ā¦thx Inushtuk1 says: I would Bruce as the 5 cut may only be 2 points in our Crib. I'd like to be beyond 60 as Pone next hand if possible. Eolus619 says: thx Mike āļø Inushtuk1 says: You're welcome Bruce; but I'm not internet champ dec. So perhaps we should wait. dec says: 15 for two . Maybe first hand as dealer and maybe fourth street position if not really needed. dec Eolus619 says: thx decāļø |
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Joined: June 2020 (1568 votes) Wednesday 5:18 AM
As dealer, always consider ways to toss a five to my crib. Today I like it better with the run. My keep starts with five points. Cutā¦.13/13 ranks add points to either my hand or crib. |
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Joined: April 2011 (4329 votes) Wednesday 5:21 AM
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Joined: December 2023 (55 votes) Wednesday 5:49 AM
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Joined: June 2013 (4160 votes) Wednesday 6:37 AM
5679 too.
Apologies if this has been mentioned on here previously, but I discovered this new podcast series yesterday and thought it might be of interest. https://open.spotify.com/episode/71h3VWNTqDdWaLsXSWbx1x?si=y87fu3_vQqyesUowVYnWKg&nd I'm sure it's available from other sites too, not just Spotify. SallyAnn3 says: This is Terry Cushman's cribbage debut, featuring Rob! Terry is an excellent player, and has run a baseball podcast for years. SallyAnn3 says: It is like sitting around in the bar with them talking after the tourney. Interesting :) james500 says: Hi Sally, hope you're well. I've not listened just yet, but I'm glad you enjoyed it. Hopefully new episodes come out reasonably frequently. SallyAnn3 says: Maybe I enjoyeed it because I know all 3 who were on it LOL. That may not be the case with those I dont know as it is hard to listen with no visuals for an hour....
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Joined: March 2008 (5976 votes) Wednesday 6:53 AM
Favorable cut turns this yuck sandwich into something palatable. |
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Joined: July 2016 (1687 votes) Wednesday 7:03 AM
What everyone else said. Both 3-5-6-7, and 5-6-7-9 improve on all 46 cuts. But why would you balk your own Crib? What if we were Pone at this score? would you keep 3-5-6-7(9-J) improving on every cut; or would you keep 5-6-7-J(3-9)? The former improves on every cut. The latter misses only on (A-A-A-A). But Ras's discard charts say (9-J) has a lower Crib Average than (3-9) due to the times several 3's, 6's, and 9's show up in the Crib I assume. |
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Joined: July 2017 (506 votes) Wednesday 7:09 AM
I prefer the 3,K to the crib. |
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Joined: May 2024 (236 votes) Wednesday 7:16 AM
Interesting that Iām the first commenter to keep the 3. Interesting only bc Liam Brown agree with me. š§ Inushtuk1 says: Hi Assman. As Pone yes; but not as Dealer. He does have it as a Hail Mary though. But the score hardly calls for that now. Assman says: I appreciate the advice. Youāre 100% correct. And that explains why I was confused. Cheers! |
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Joined: April 2024 (238 votes) Wednesday 7:57 AM
Strongly considered 3-K today for all the reasons listed above, JQT provides a strong case (as usual) for this keep too. While Iām hurting my crib by tossing 9-K instead, I feel that down 10, we need to choose offense and peg what we canā¦leading me to keep my four lowest cards that also happen to work well together. If weāre lucky, we might be able to cut our deficit with some pegs! However, those of you that selected 3-K are more likely to enjoy a stronger crib today. |
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Joined: March 2020 (1090 votes) Wednesday 8:30 AM
Every cut helps, and a decent toss. Am not balking myown crib
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Sally Ann. When your club gives $5 for a quad does that only count if they are able to show it down? Also, a slam stopper; does that only count for the last game? Technically, a slam stop could happen anytime. I thank you for your time. SallyAnn3 says: Slam stopper can't be determined until the last game is played by that player who just missed the slam.For the quad, it has to be either all in the hand,or all in the crib, without using the cut card :) |
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Joined: November 2008 (5379 votes) Wednesday 10:19 AM
At hole 46 dealer position is slightly favorable though needs to limit n/d movement down the board. Want to prevent n/d from reaching that Third Street CPZ (69-73) for next deal. My goal is to limit to no more than 8 holes, five holes short of position for upcoming deal. So, its defense, play off the lead with a few exceptions. A mid card lead is problematic. If a 6/7 is led respond with the 9, if an 8 is the opener, play the five spot, and if a nine lead score the 15-2. Would go for both the 15-2 and 31-2 if a X-pointer is led. Otherwise am just an echo to JQT this day. Ras2829 says: Want to comment further on playing the 5 on an 8 lead. A hand from which an 8 is led often contains 6-7-9. The five play forces 6-7 off and often results in the play of the 9 for count of 22 and a no-risk 31-4 for dealer. In addition, showing the five first effectively disguises the presence of mid cards as most players will assume the five goes with X-pointers. Surprise is often a very effective weapon in the pegging game. |
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Joined: October 2007 (5765 votes) Wednesday 11:58 AM
I'll look at 5-6-7-9 (3-K), 3-6-7-9 (5-K) and 5-6-9-K (3-7):
5-6-7-9: 5pts + 3Ā½pts (Schell: 3.67) = 8Ā½pts 3-6-7-9: 2pts + 6Ā½pts (Schell: 6.66) = 8Ā½pts 5-6-9-K: 4pts + 3Ā½pts (Schell: 3.58) = 7Ā½pts Potential: 5-6-7-9: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 + 15xXs = 46 cuts = 46/46 = 100.0% up to 8/9/10/12pts with 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 999 = 20 cuts. 3-6-7-9: Improves with 2222, 333, 555, 666, 777, 888, 999 = 22 cuts = 22/46 = 47.8% up to 6/7/8pts with 333, 555, 666, 8888, 999 = 16 cuts. 5-6-9-K: Improves with AAAA, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 999 + 15xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 7/8/9pts with 4444, 555, 666, 777, 999, KKK = 19 cuts. Position: We're 2pts past 2nd street positional hole and Pone needs 14pts to reach 3rd street positional hole for next hand as Dealer. So I'll play Defense and try to hold them back. Pegging: Playing Defense I think 3-6-7-9 and 5-6-9-K will peg better. 5-6-9-K has a magic eleven so perhaps will have the edge. If a tenth card is led I'll play the 6 and hopefully score 31-2pts with the 5. Summary: 5-6-7-9 and 3-6-7-9 have the better starting value at 8Ā½pts but 5-6-7-9 has guaranteed improvement and 20 cuts for 8-12pts compared to 16 cuts for 6-8pts with 3-6-7-9. So I'll throw the 3-K to my box. |
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Joined: February 2008 (5532 votes) Wednesday 11:58 AM
At 46*-56 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:
_______________Pone's Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W5 %____W6 % 5-6-7-9____8.11+(-2.22)+3.55=9.44____17.2____31.4 5-6-7-K____7.85+(-2.20)+3.67=9.32____16.5____30.0 3-5-7-K____6.50+(-2.33)+5.04=9.21____16.0____30.2 3-5-6-7____8.37+(-2.15)+2.90=9.12____17.2____31.3 3-6-7-9____4.07+(-2.22)+6.57=8.42____14.3____27.8 5-6-9-K____6.37+(-2.15)+3.64=7.86____12.5____25.6 Defense______L5 %____L6 % 5-6-7-9_______35.8____52.2 5-6-7-K_______37.3____54.2 3-5-7-K_______35.8____53.8 3-5-6-7_______36.6____52.7 3-6-7-9_______36.2____56.5 5-6-9-K_______37.0____59.4 5-6-7-9 is best for expected averages by 0.12pt. and is very slightly best for Win % and slightly lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select the 3-K to discard. After the 5 cut I'll play a SAFE strategy to the lead. |
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Joined: January 2019 (1102 votes) Wednesday 1:52 PM
I didnāt want to put 9 K in my crib so threw 3 K. |
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