October 6, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by goatman
80-84*  ?
46%
46%
31%
31%
16%
16%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 224
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4235 votes)

Sunday 3:06 AM
Thought about 4-8, but I'll keep the flush. I'm making a habit of giving my opponent a 5!

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
6th Oct 2024
🏆Score: 121 to 102
🌋SP: 1715
📅Streak: 4
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/267/3333658/1

1. 5-Q
2. 7-K
3. 6-7
4. Q-K
5. 10-K
6. 8-J
7. 7-7
8. 2-7
9. 6-8
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4405 votes)

Sunday 3:39 AM
Let's start with Toss (5h 8h) and the FLUSH with Nine Points, as opposed to either the (3 5 5 7) or the Double Run for only Six or Eight Points. 🍺

After the Deuce of Hearts Cut, which sadly only adds One Point (only a Non-Diamond-Suited 9 Card Cut was worse!), we now have Ten Points; let's lead the 4 Card and peg tentatively. 😒

Wordle 1,205 6/6 (ordered in Pennsylvania far more often than beer)

⬛⬛🟨🟨🟨
⬛🟨🟨🟨⬛
⬛🟩⬛🟩🟩
⬛🟩⬛🟩🟩
🟩🟩⬛🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
JQT says: Note that our Maximum Hand today is Eighteen Points, and it comes NOT after a 💎 Diamond Suit Cut but after any 3️⃣3️⃣3️⃣ Trey (333) Cut, which shall occur 3/46 equals 0.065 or about 6.5% of the time. 🌾
Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. Can you answer my question I posted late yesterday in your post? I thank you for your time.
JQT says: Given: (36-43*) Keep (5 6 9 9) and Toss (8 8), Cut = 7, the question is, "If Dealer takes the (15-2) do we pair the 6, or keep 5-6 intact?" as in: 9 (9) 6 (15=2): 9! (24) 6? (21-2). I would definitely unload the second 9 Card here, bringing the Count safely up to Twenty-Four, not so much to keep the 5-6 intact, which is nice but likely less of a vital concern after seeing the Dealer play a 6 Card, but if we don't play our second 9 Card here, we would undoubtedly be playing our 6 Card for (21-2), and this subjects us to TWO DIFFERENT DANGERS, which include the Dealer either playing another 6 Card for PAIRS Royal (27=3), or for the Dealer to play an "X" Card for (31=2). 🍁
JQT says: The pegging sequence above should read: 9! (24) [or] 6? (21-2).
Inushtuk1 says: Thanks John.
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (6059 votes)

Sunday 4:26 AM
My objective is hole 95. IMO the only way to get there is to hold 3455 and pray for a little help. The 2 gives me 12, so a little creative pegging gets me there. With the 2 cut the 87 is probably going to sting a little less.
Ras will tell us whether this is a position for offense or defense. Offense is easier, and defense just might lead to a close loss.
kal79

Joined: April 2024 (242 votes)

Sunday 5:38 AM
Not excited about tossing a 5 or 7-8 (some of the most common dealer discards) to my opponent at any time, but especially not now. I will opt for the safer 4-8 discard and hope for a 4 or 6 to be cut to get my dozen.

After seeing the cut, the crib should be safe so long as our opponent didn’t throw small cards. This means I’ll shift from a defensive discard to more of an optimal pegging strategy. With eight in our hand, pegging 2 or 4 would be nice, and I’d hope we could keep the lead to fewer than 10 points for our next deal. Wouldn’t it be nice if we could be dealt the same hand next deal?
Eolus619 says: Morning Kal79..just an fyi here on dealer discards ..7/8, 6/9, 6/7, 6/8, 8/9, 7/9 are in top ten most frequent dealer discards..oddly a five is part of only two of the twenty most frequent dealer discards..all the best..I learn from your daily analysis ..thx
kal79 says: Hi Eolus…thanks for the insight. I suppose I should amend what I stated above. 7-8 definitely plays into common dealer discards, and while a 5 is dangerous, isn’t as bad of a threat based on the list above as one might think. Appreciate your insights as well
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6743 votes)

Sunday 5:43 AM
Lets get into the low 90s at least and then next deal we will try to hit the pedal to the medal. We could have some pegging points to shoot for there. dec
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (324 votes)

Sunday 5:55 AM
Lots of good choices again.
SallyAnn3

Joined: March 2020 (1155 votes)

Sunday 6:12 AM
Only the 9 doesn't help the flush.
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1745 votes)

Sunday 7:01 AM
Thank goodness for the flush option; otherwise I was going to toss the (7-8) on offense. I'm torn between the 4, and the 7 lead.
Inushtuk1 says: What the heck. Let's go for the 7 lead.
Eolus619 says: Mike..i miscounted ( under) this hand…6…..3-3-6-9..fortunately I still won the game
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Bruce. that one's 14. I remember JQT saying once, "One of the most frequently under-counted hands in cribbage is 3-6-6-9 and cut a 3." So be careful when you see it that way as well.
Jazzselke

Joined: March 2009 (2789 votes)

Sunday 7:58 AM
Lots o'cuts, 58 not the worst discard. Wow,the amount of red is like looking into the sun!
JJx7fan

Joined: December 2023 (65 votes)

Sunday 8:00 AM
Not excited about tossing a 7-8, so I will go with the flush over the double run.
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (583 votes)

Sunday 9:04 AM
Seems to me that this is the best option for holding points and holding off the crib. Lead the 3.
asevenson

Joined: August 2011 (3181 votes)

Sunday 9:22 AM
Flush for me today.
Graspbutin

Joined: August 2022 (309 votes)

Sunday 10:13 AM
Today I went with the percentage play.
Calculating the _exact_ expected values using
every possible hand and crib combination shows the
7♦ 8♥ scores about 1.3 points more than the 5♥ 8♥ on average.

toss: 7♦ 8♥
hold: 3♦ 4♦ 5♦ 5♥
ev_hand: 288/23 12.522
ev_crib: 10403/1518 6.853
ev_dlr: 29411/1518 19.375
non_dlr: 8605/1518 5.669

toss: 5♥ 8♥
hold: 3♦ 4♦ 5♦ 7♦
ev_hand: 569/46 12.370
ev_crib: 28863/5060 5.704
ev_dlr: 91453/5060 18.074
non_dlr: 33727/5060 6.665
Graspbutin says: Sorry for the spacing.
JQT says: Data looks good, but isn't the FLUSH at 6.665 about 0.996 points BETTER than the Double Run at 5.669 for us as non-dealer today?
Inushtuk1 says: That's what I see as well.
JQT says: We are Non-Dealer today. Let's reexamine how we denote our position in Cribbage using today's puzzle as our example: We always list OUR OWN SCORE FIRST, so with a position of: (80-84*), we are at Hole 80, and our Opponent is at Hole 84. And the asterisk (*) shows which player is the Current Dealer, so using today's puzzle, we see that we are Non-Dealer (or Pone) at Hole 80, and our Opponent is the Dealer at Hole 84. Now, if we look at the data presented by Graspbutin, we see that the FLUSH gives us, the Non-Dealer (non_dlr), a higher score (6.665) than the Double Run (3 4 5 5) Hand score (5.669). The original post here shows that IF WE WERE THE DEALER, that Toss (7 8) would be the best of these two ideas; incidentally, Toss (7 8) is even better than Toss (5 5) if we were the Dealer! But if we were actually the Dealer, the position would show an asterisk (*) after OUR SCORE, the first one listed, as (80*-84).
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Sunday 1:09 PM
I'll look at 3-4-5D-7 (5H-8), 3-4-5-5 (7-8), 3-5-5-7 (4-8) and perhaps 5-5-7-8 (3-4):

3-4-5D-7: 9pts - 6½pts (Schell: 6.30) = +2½pts

3-4-5-5: 8pts - 7½pts (Schell: 7.63) = +½pt

3-5-5-7: 6pts - 5pts (Schell: 4.94) = +1pt

5-5-7-8: 4pts - 5¾pts (Schell: 5.96) = -1¾pts

Potential:

3-4-5D-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777, 888 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 13/16/18pts with 333, 444, 55, 777, 888 = 14 cuts. Plus 9 diamond cuts for 1pt extra for the flush.

3-4-5-5: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777, 888 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 12/14/16/17/20pts with 2222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777 + 16xXs = 35 cuts.

3-5-5-7: Improves with 2222, 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777, 888 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 10/12/14pts with 333, 444, 55, 6666, 777 + 16xXs = 31 cuts.

5-5-7-8: Improves with 2222, 333, 55, 6666, 777, 888, 9999 + 16xXs = 39 cuts = 39/46 = 84.8% up to 7/8/10/12pts with all cuts.

Position:

our target here is 96pts or more which would require 16pts+. So I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

The flush should peg well and be hard to read. It also has a magic 16.

Summary:

the flush has the best starting value by 1½pts over 3-5-5-7 and it also has an extra 0.20pt. for a diamond cut and it should peg best. It has the joint most cuts for improvement with 3-4-5-5 and has 14 cuts for 13-18pts. So I'll throw the 5H-8 to opponent's crib.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5598 votes)

Sunday 1:09 PM
At 80-84* play an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total___W2 %___W3 %
3-4-5D-7___12.37+1.57+(-6.11)=7.83____5.4____43.0
3-5-5-7_____9.74+1.50+(-4.23)=7.01____1.8____29.7
3-4-5-5____12.52+1.30+(-7.16)=6.66____5.1____37.5

Offense______L2 %___L3 %
3-4-5D-7______7.1____39.6
3-5-5-7_______4.6____44.8
3-4-5-5______11.7____44.5

3-4-5D-7 is best for expected averages by 0.82pt. and is very much best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select the 5H-8 to discard.

After the 2H cut I'll lead the 7 and play Offense:

Lead______________Our Pegging Points
7________________________1.52
5________________________1.32
4________________________1.32
3________________________1.29
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5470 votes)

Sunday 2:33 PM
With opponent needing 15 for next deal (4th Street CPZ 95-99), it's offense to include the pegging. That being the case the 7 is the better lead. If choosing defense (have nothing to defend), lead the four spot. Will take any pegs offered though will not pair for two to risk 6. Pay close attention to the count if pairing. Will play for the 5-card run if n/d plays an 8 on my 7 lead, drop the five enticing the 6, n/d plays the four to reach 30 and a likely go. If dealer response to my 7 lead is 1/2/3, drop the five; if dealer plays a four in response, will play the 4 for 15-4. Have a plan for any dealer response with some flexibility as pegging sequences unfold.
Ras2829 says: Entice the pegging play towards runs. With 10 known points, some pegs are essential or will be dealing short next hand.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. What do we do wth the 9, or 5 replies to our 7 lead? Even thought they may be unlikely.
Ras2829 says: Hi Iushtuk1: Will reply to a dealer response of a 9 to the 7 lead first. Why would not dealer advance count to 17 if holding something above the 9? Would drop the 3 for count of 19 keeping 4-5 intact. Might just pick off a 6 spot, particularly so if dealer holding 6-6. If dealer plays a five on my 7 lead, would risk pairing it to advance the count to 17. Likely dealer would then advance the count to 27 with the play of a X-pointers. If dealer has two fives, will give up the triple. Offensive pegging requires some risk-taking. The calculated risk in this case will benefit n/d more often than not.