Tuesday 3:14 AM

I'll keep the 4 + 2 = 6 points, rather than the flush. The discard of 6-7 does have a lot of potential though.

Cribbage Pro Scrimmage
8th Oct 2024
🏆Score: 121 to 113
🌋SP: 1440
📅Streak: 6
https://www.cribbagepro.net/scrimmage/269/3333658/1

Discards:
Hand 1, 7-7
Hand 2, 3-Q
Hand 3, 4-10
Hand 4, 8-K
Hand 5, 2-5
Hand 6, A-10
Hand 7, A-3
Hand 8, 4-5?
Hand 9, 2-4

Tuesday 3:28 AM

Play it defensively this way. Over half the deck adds to either hands or maybe even both. Defense to the lead. dec

Tuesday 4:37 AM

Duck, Dodge and Parry. I went with the flush.

Tuesday 4:48 AM

If the spades were spread further apart, I would likely chose the flush for defensive purposes.

Tuesday 5:02 AM

Will hold the combined 6 points. If we keep the flush and toss 67, a non-spade A, 4, 10, Q or K cut does not help either hand or crib.

Tuesday 5:05 AM

I like the flush today.

Tuesday 6:37 AM

We are the Dealer at Hole 111, and we need just Ten Points to WIN this tight Cribbage Endgame Battle, but our Opponent is "barking up 🐕 our tree" at Hole 110, and so Pone needs Eleven Points to defeat us.

We've dealt ourselves a 🚽 FLUSH, but this arrangement also alternatively has Two PAIRS, along with a Trey and a Jack for good measure. We wish to peg as defensively as possible to hold back Pone, and if we survive First Hand Show, we'd like to 'pack enough 🥊 punch' with our combined Hand and Crib tally to 'cover the distance' and stroll across the Finish Line.

We could "Get the 💋 Red Out" and retain the Spade FLUSH ♠ ♠ ♠ ♠ with Keep (3s 6s 7s Js) and Toss (6h 7h), or we might also prefer either Toss (3 J), Toss (6 6), or Toss (7 7), and I tend to like these in the order listed. Therefore, it appears to be a contest between the FLUSH and Toss (7 7) today.

A FLUSH is typically a defensive pegging hand, as it's tough to read, but if we retain the FLUSH today, if we peg only the Obligatory ⛳ One Hole, after a whopping Fifteen Non-Spade-Suited Cuts (AAA, 444, TTT, QQQ, KKK), we could 'stumble' into having only our Four-Point Hand, with ZILCH in our Crib, and in embarrassing fashion, our Front Peg could achieve a Final Resting Place at Hole 116!

It's a bit tricky to assess, because although the FLUSH will give us the highest COMBINED Expected Average of Hand and Crib, and while the FLUSH might also defend well during the pegging, holding the FLUSH at this Relative Score is actually quite risky after Fifteen Non-Spade-Suited Cuts (AAA, 444, TTT, QQQ, KKK). Keep (3 6 6 J) starts out with Four Points just like the FLUSH, but it also entails stashing a PAIR into our Crib, and therefore this is a much more "balanced" approach.

Let's Toss (7 7) today and avoid such an embarrassing "running out of gas" occurrence and possible defeat. After the 6c Card Cut, we now have a Dozen Points in our Hand, and "Who Cares?" what we have in our Crib! Our sole remaining task is to prevent Pone from pegging enough to maybe "steal" a VICTORY right out from under us, and thus we must remain both observant and vigilant throughout the pegging.

Pegging in a defensive manner is not that difficult, but it does require us to avoid going into our default "auto-pilot" pegging mode, because instead of taking points or setting up scoring opportunities, we're looking to restrain Pone 🥋 from scoring.

After an Ace or Deuce Lead, replying with a 6 Card from our PAIR leaves us 🍂 with three different card ranks, and thus we are left with the Maximum Variety remaining in our Hand. Proceeding in this fashion is far more defensive than trying to set up a Fifteen-Two that we really don't need, and getting our remaining cards all 'jammed 🎵 🎸 up' in the process.

After a Trey Lead, our 6 Card Reply is extremely safe, since only another 6 Card could score, and we were dealt HALF of them. PAIRING a Trey Lead may allow us to peg not just the PAIR, but if Pone then has PAIRS Royal, we could play a 6 Card for (15=2). But our only reason to peg aggressively would be if we strongly suspected 🙄 that after seeing the Cut Card, we were confident that Pone has a sufficient Hand to go out.

After a 4 Card, 5 Card, 7 Card, or an 8 Card Lead by Pone, reply with the Jack a.k.a. the "Duck 🦆 Call." We're most concerned with avoiding Runs and other high-scoring pegging occurrences, but Pone might only need a simple Fifteen-Two or PAIR or even a simple "go" to WIN, and it's impossible to avoid everything. 🍕 🥤 🌸

After a 6 Card or a 9 Card Lead by Pone, we can score the respective PAIR or Fifteen-Two, but in these instances, the taking of points is "accidental" and only occurs because these are the most DEFENSIVE replies that we have, and as noted earlier, unloading a 6 Card from our PAIR leaves us 🍂 with three different card ranks, and thus we are left with the Maximum Variety remaining in our Hand.

After any "X" Card Lead by Pone, we should reply with a 6 Card from our PAIR. It's very interesting if Pone were to then PAIR our 6 Card at such a juncture; I believe we should usually refrain from 'gobbling' 🦃 PAIRS Royal, as Pone might then set up a few Aces for Self-PAIRING: beware of such risks, and try to choose OFFENSE or DEFENSE, and PICK A SIDE! Pegging POINTS does us NO GOOD, unless we believe with some certainty that Pone has enough to go out, in which case, onward! 🗽

Wordle 1,207 4/6 (one type of compound)

⬛⬛🟨🟩⬛
⬛🟩⬛🟩⬛
⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Tuesday 6:37 AM

I held the flush to have escape cards. Others too bunched up to get caught in runs.

Tuesday 7:37 AM

What ever happened to safety in numbers? Having been dealt so many mid-cards, Pone probably won't have use for them. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it until someone proves me wrong. No doubt someone will. I'll play a 6 of course on the unlikely (I hope) 8 lead.

Tuesday 7:55 AM

The flush....they track it.

Tuesday 7:55 AM

Tuesday 9:52 AM

Objective here is defensive pegging. 6677 would not be a great hand for that. I do like seeing the flush keeps. I keep missing those.

Tuesday 10:13 AM

I’m with inushtuk here, I’ve kept the two pairs and thrown 3 J.

Tuesday 10:33 AM

I felt the 2 pairs were WAY too much trouble in allowing them to peg - would prefer the flush hold for defensive pegging, but in the end, went with a total of 6 points hand and crib.

Tuesday 10:44 AM

Agree 7-7 to crib. No pegs needed so will avoid if at all possible.

Tuesday 11:37 AM

Took the flush today but understanding the value in 7-7 to the crib as well, that may be the best option today. No matter the keep, defense should be our avenue for pegging. Pone is 11 points from going out, so an “average” hand for pone would get them to 118, plus any pegs. If we can survive this hand, this game is ours to lose!

Tuesday 3:12 PM

I want to avoid pegs so gonna keep 4 points and have some escape cards

Tuesday 5:55 PM

Not concerned in the slightest about counting out, so what is the best way to prevent any pegging against us should be almost the sole focus in this great endgame puzzle. The ranked cards far apart from low to high, as well as the "safety" in numbers provided by our pair of 6's (not to mention that in conjunction we get to throw a strong pair to our crib) would seem to give this choice the edge over any other. Keeping the (3 7 7 J) (although only 2 pts and a weaker crib throw) should work in this position most of the time as well, although the 7's feel a little bit more naturally dangerous to retain in our hand. Let's not lose sight and focus of our goal, namely to avoid giving up any pegs if at all possible.

Wednesday 12:29 AM

I'll look at 3-6S-7S-J (6H-7H), 6-6-7-7 (3-J) and 3-6-6-7H (7S-J):

3-6S-7S-J: 4pts + 5pts (Schell: 4.98) = 9pts

6-6-7-7: 4pts + 3¾pts (Schell: 3.90) = 7¾pts

3-6-6-7H: 4pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.53) = 7½pts

Potential:

3-6S-7S-J: Improves with 2222, 333, 5555, 66, 77, 8888, 9999, JJJ = 6 cuts = 26/46 = 56.5% up to 8/9/11pts with 2222, 5555, 66, 8888 = 14 cuts. Plus 9 spade cuts for 1pt extra for his nob and 1pt for the flush =(2x9)/48 = 0.39pt.

6-6-7-7: Improves with AAAA, 2222, 333, 5555, 66, 77, 8888, 9999 = 27 cuts = 27/46 = 58.7% up to 8/12/16/20pts with 2222, 5555, 66, 77, 8888, 9999 = 20 cuts.

3-6-6-7H: Improves with 2222, 333, 5555, 66, 77, 8888, 9999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8/12pts with 2222, 333, 5555, 66, 8888, 9999 = 21 cuts.

Position:

Pone only needs 11pts to go out while we need 10pts and have 3 takes to do it in. So I'll play Defense.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think 6-6-7-7 will peg well but the flush will also be hard to read.

Summary:

The flush is best for starting value by 1¼pts and it also has an additional 0.39pt. for a spade cut. It should also peg well so I'll throw the 6H-7H.

Wednesday 12:29 AM

At 111*-110 playing an Optimal strategy for the pegging (cautious offense) the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_________________Net
Optimal_____Hand_Pegs_Crib_Total____Win %___Loss %
3-6S-7S-J____6.35+1.07+4.70=12.11____58.8____41.2
3-6-6-J______5.54+0.59+5.75=11.88____65.8____34.2
6-6-7-7______6.57+0.76+3.93=11.25____62.7____37.3
3-6-6-7H_____6.35+1.07+3.29=10.70____58.9____41.1

3-6S-7S-J is best for expected averages but in this end game board position Win/Loss %s are more important. 3-6-6-J is appreciably best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s so I'll select 7-7 to discard.

After the 6 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.