Thursday 4:07 AM

The Diet Special. I wont get fat on this hand. I can account for only 7 pts. Peg like a madman.

Thursday 4:14 AM

I will peg with you. That is why I kept the ten. Besides that 10-K not worth it to me to keep all the peggers. dec

Thursday 4:29 AM

No more run for me, but only four points not five.

5-X-A sixteen might be useful in the pegging, for 15/2 and 31/2.

Lots of potential in the crib. Any 2,5,6,7,8 or 9 will immediately be helpful, (21 such cards still unaccounted for).

Thursday 5:38 AM

If we try to get the 5 Card in our Crib, there is nothing left in our Hand. Therefore, our first inclination is to retain the 5-6-7 Run, and throw the best two remaining cards into our Crib.

We could, however, try to better "balance" our Hand and Crib if we Keep (A 5 T Q) and Toss (6 7)!

Let's Toss (6 7) today, and try to follow an interesting and alternate path. 🍝 🍷

After the King Cut, we now have Six Points in our Hand, with prospects for a less-than-average Crib.

Wordle 1,209 4/6 (something in common with ice, wood, and snow)

⬛⬛⬛⬛🟩
⬛⬛⬛🟨⬛
🟩🟨🟨🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

Thursday 5:51 AM

67 no assurances in the crib, so will hold the 5 points and a possible double-run. Also retaining the powerful 56 pegging combination.

Thursday 5:54 AM

With Dan Jazz above.

Thursday 7:06 AM

The Q is less likely to be trapped into a run than the 10. I'd have played it 5-6-7-10(A-Q) on Offense. Cautious Offense to the lead. For me that means playing my 6 from the 5-6 Magic Eleven on any X-Card lead. I can hear Dan(dec), and Greg (GougieOO) yelling at their screens now. But I have 8 known points. Let's hold n/d to 8 or less as well.

Thursday 7:11 AM

My standard toss here normally would be the A,Q but lately I have been going this way with about the same results.

Thursday 7:40 AM

Ace-face or 6-7? Values are close, but Ace-face has more potential and leaves a better pegger. Yes, must play the defensive 6 on an X lead. Will pitch the Ten to keep some defensive distance with the Queen.

Thursday 8:39 AM

No real obvious toss today, but as dealer with the first hand, I’ll keep max points and play a bit more conservative. 6-7 is appealing, but isn’t as promising as 7-8, for example, in the crib, so I will not give up one point to toss it. While I’ll lean defense pegging, I would play 15-2 if given an X lead, with hopes to play my 6 and complete the magic 11. Will not be engaging in runs this early in the game. I felt the 10 and Q were a toss-up for the crib, but I’m reading from Inushtuk that the Q is less likely to be trapped and may be a better keep at this point in the game

Thursday 10:01 AM

I feel like I'm in good company today - kept the Q instead of the 10, in case I felt the need for an out in pegging.

Thursday 1:00 PM

I 'll consider 5-6-7-Q (A-10) and A-5-10-Q (6-7):

5-6-7-Q: 5pts + 3½pts (Schell: 3.42) = 8½pts

A-5-10-Q: 4pts + 5pts 9Schell: 4.98) = 9pts

Potential:

5-6-7-Q: Improves with 2222, 3333, 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, 9999 + 14xXs = 43 cuts = 43/46 = 93.5% up to 8/10/12pts with 4444, 555, 666, 777, 8888, QQQ = 20 cuts.

A-5-10-Q: Improves with AAA, 4444, 555, 9999 + 14xXs = 28 cuts = 28/46 = 60.9% up to 8/9/10pts with 4444, 555, 101010, JJJJ, QQQ = 17 cuts.

Position:

We're first Dealer and positional hole is at 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

Playing Defense I think A-5-10-Q will peg better but perhaps 5-6-7-10 will move us down the board better.

Summary:

A-5-10-Q is better for starting value by ½pt but 5-6-7-10 has more cuts for improvement and 20 cuts for 8-12pts while A-5-10-Q has 17 cuts for 8-10pts. So I think 5-6-7-10 will make up the ½pt therefore I'll throw the A-Q.

Thursday 1:00 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-5-10-Q___6.17+(-2.02)+4.91=9.06____33.9____47.3
5-6-7-Q____7.89+(-2.17)+3.33=9.05____35.1____47.8
5-6-7-10___7.89+(-2.20)+3.29=8.98____35.0____47.6

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
A-5-10-Q______25.6____26.2
5-6-7-Q_______27.4____26.5
5-6-7-10______27.6____26.7

A-5-10-Q is best for expected by the slimmest of margins of 0.01pt. and it is lowest for Loss %s. 5-6-7-Q is slightly best for Win %s but even so I'll select 6-7 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Thursday 6:09 PM

Don't see fit to get rid of the run with the (5-6) magic-11 if I can't put the 5 in the crib. After the cut, will play defense to the lead, including the 6 from the middle of the run on any X-card lead.

Thursday 6:47 PM

I kept the run but seeing the comments I might change my mind next time and throw 6-7 into my crib--rather than the A-Q. Good puzzle by fentesk, as always.