Sunday 3:42 AM

I’m going defensively and balking the crib.

Sunday 3:56 AM

Might be the last deal of the game. I went for a homerun. A swing and a miss.

Sunday 4:22 AM

Who is the patron saint of desperate situations in cribbage ? They did not answer my prayers. There probably wasn't even a possible end game on the next deal so I went for it with either a King or a five. dec

Sunday 5:12 AM

If there had been a run possibility with the X cards, a Q not a 10 for instance, I would have held 5XXX and hoped. 7-10 from these.

Wordle 1,226 5/6

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Sunday 5:46 AM

We are Pone in an exciting Cribbage Endgame by EliteKitten111. However, we need a lofty Seventeen Points to claim VICTORY, which is a whopping Seven Holes above Pone average. Meanwhile, the Dealer needs one point fewer and has a Hand and a Crib with which to do it, and Sixteen Points is in fact the Dealer average.

We were dealt an arrangement that cannot even begin to promise Seventeen Points, and sadly, in order to obtain more than a Dozen Points, we'd have to Keep (5 T K K) and Toss (7 8) and go for just Five Cut Cards (555, KK)! With Three Cuts (555) for Sixteen Points, that's a 6.5% endeavor.

Defensively, we do have Toss (T K) at our disposal, but the Dealer has a Full Cycle coming: Dealer Hand, Dealer Crib, and then First Hand Show as Next Non Dealer! As we know, this all adds up to average Twenty-Six Points, which means that even if we can minimize Dealer Pegging to One Hole, and somehow "NULL" the Dealer's Crib, our Opponent will likely still defeat us.

We're maybe better off to choose a Hybrid Approach, and try to retain some semblance of a Hand, while simultaneously "spiking" the Crib. We can probably do this best with either Toss (7 T) or Toss (8 T), and hope for a miracle, as the odds of this working are slim. But it's above ZERO odds, so we'll try it!

If we Keep (5 8 K K), we've got Five Cuts (555, KK) that give us a Dozen Points, and this will occur 5/46 equals 0.109 or about 11% of the time when we can make it to Hole 116 or better. Next, we'll also need the Dealer to 'come up short' of going out, such that we can peg out as the Next Dealer, when we might need to peg as many as Five Holes, but maybe fewer if we're lucky.

Let's Toss (7 T) today, and try to hold a somewhat decent Hand while we also attempt to 'jam up' the machinery in the Dealer's Crib. We should be able to have at least a shot at winning up to 10% of the time, but in actuality, maybe we should be happy with a little less than this. But our chances are certainly not ZERO, and our odds should exceed 6.5%!

After the 9 Card Cut, we have Six Points; let's lead a King from our PAIR. We'd like the Dealer to PAIR our lead! But our task might be to merely reduce the Spread Points by which we lose, which is an important facet of the game. 🍹 🎃 🎪

Wordle 1,226 4/6

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Sunday 6:23 AM

With a score of 104-105*, defense simply isn’t an option in my opinion. Should we play safe, we might keep our opponent from going out, but we would also be sabotaging ourselves…playing the next deal from a score of 112*-116, for example, still looks like a bleak outcome for us. Throwing the 7-8 isn’t a great avenue either, but I like my odds better if I get an X cut and am able to play the next hand from a score of 116*-119 instead. Doing it this way, there’s at least an outside chance we’re able to peg to victory. Unfortunately, the 9 cut doesn’t help. Like Dec, I’ll be praying to Saint Jude Thaddeus as choose offense on all fronts while pegging today.

Sunday 7:50 AM

Great puzzle kitten!
I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet. The 7,10 are not likely to give the pone much in their crib. I will lead the 8 and play defense as best I can.....unless the pone plays a K on my 8, I will gladly take those 2 points.

Sunday 8:35 AM

I went sideways, figuring I was already out of this game. I loathe kings, so off they went lol

Sunday 8:46 AM

Never give up. Kd lead.

Sunday 10:06 AM

As much as would have liked to play offense at hole 104, cannot do so with 5-10-K-K and 7-8 discard. Play it SAFE, lead KD, and try to limit dealer to no more than 8 combined points. What are chances of that? That's 1 of 14 according to Delynn Colvert from chart in his book "Play Winning Cribbage". Had hand been 5-10-10-J, 5-J-J-Q, or similar would have chosen offense and an aggressive finish to game. In this case, choosing defense, would have discarded 7-10, 8-10, 10-K, 8-K, 7-K in that order before ever getting to 7-8 toss. Would have been the same with 5-10-10-Q or 5-Q-Q-K. Avoid pegs other than tripling a King if dealer pairs. Not likely that dealer will play on any non-dealer cards with n/d needing 17 to win and opponent having first count on the upcoming deal. A likely loss under most circumstances. Got to play for one of those 7 chances in 100 to limit dealer to no more than hole 113.

Sunday 10:55 AM

Two approaches here, I think:

1) Go for it. We need 17pts and there are 6 cuts for 16pts (555, 101010) and two more for 14pts (KK). So we'd need to peg 1pt or 3pts respectively.

2) Keep 5-7-8-K and throw 10-K and hope for a chance to peg out as Dealer next hand. Dealer only needs 16pts to go out so even throwing 10-K there's a good chance they could score enough and if they finish close to game hole they may peg out first next deal, or go out on their first show of course.

I think I'll go for it and throw the 7-8.

Sunday 10:55 AM

At 104-105* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

Offense_______Win %_______Loss %
5-10-K-K_______8.1_________54.8
5-7-K-K________1.2_________39.6
5-8-K-K________0.9_________33.6
5-7-8-K________0.0_________33.1
5-7-10-K_______0.0_________31.8
5-8-10-K_______0.0_________31.5

5-10-K-K is best for Win %s. As I'm recommending Offense I'll select 7-8 to discard. If one were to play Defense then 5-8-K-K has almost as low a chance of Losing as 5-7-8-K and it has a small chance of Winning so 7-10 may be the better choice.

After the 9 cut I'll lead the 10 and play Offense:

Lead__________Our Pegging Points_______Win %
K____________________1.29_______________0.0
10___________________1.28_______________0.5
5____________________1.21_______________0.0

Although the K lead is very slightly best for our Pegging Points the 10 lead is best for Win %s.