October 28, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by fentesk
102-97*  ?
72%
72%
18%
18%
3%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 284
fenteskAhead but not dealing. How do we split up this Daily Scrimmage hand on 4th Street?
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes)

Monday 3:33 AM
Strategy choice matters not as potential score of flush, holding 9 points to begin, and a fairly plausible 16, the 7-7 has got to go. If there had been no flush, the 7-10 discard would have been an automatic. With dealer at 97, will lead the trey, and take pegs that seem low-risk.
Ras2829 says: Ah - the picture suddenly emerges. Nice addition - sorry glmccuskey. Now do you get the picture? I need prodding occasionally - thanks for the subtle jab!
Ras2829 says: If choosing offense, lead the 10 spot. If choosing defense or optimal, lead the trey.
Ras2829 says: This is a good puzzle to share some thoughts as to choice of strategy. There are three decision points. Consider position of pegs first. N/d at hole 102 needs 19 and average is ten. Dealer at hole 97 needs 24 points to win and averages 26 over two deals (pegs, hand and crib scores). So based on that we need to limit dealer movement down the board and choose an optimal strategy. Defense would work as well if not applied to the discard. Didn't like the 7-7 discard for that reason. Second, look carefully at the six cards dealt. The flush provides nine points to start and cuts of 2-3-4 make 16 points. Staring with 9 points suggest optimal strategy. Now, consider the starter card and how it impacts the hand. N/d knows after seeing that of 11 points. N/d averages two pegs and would need to peg 8 to win on this deal. So not liking our 7-7 discard or the 9 starter card as a single 8 spot discarded by dealer will make 10 points. So, all we can do this hand is minimize dealer pegs and hope that dealer did not discard mid cards. Having that in mind, let's lead the 3, breaking the lower sequence, putting a bit of air between 2-4. So, strategy remains optimal after viewing the cut card. Had that card on the deck been 2-3-4, strategy would have shifted to BOLD offense as three pegs would have allowed n/d to win on this deal. Had that been the case, would have led the 10, keeping 2-3-4 intact to score runs or possible pairs with a go late in pegging sequence.
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6853 votes)

Monday 3:51 AM
Like to get to the last bar here. Lead the three and try to peg maybe two or three at least. dec
glmccuskey

Joined: April 2011 (4482 votes)

Monday 4:02 AM
What RAS said is fine with me even if he doesn’t want to show his cards.
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (683 votes)

Monday 4:15 AM
I'm not throwing caution to the wind in this situation. The 7,7 is simply too risky. If I was within a couple of pegging points away, then I would go with the flush. I will likely lead the deuce but might go with the trey.
Eolus619 says: Hello Sgt..a tip of the cap to you and all others who helped to make the Saturday event a BIG success..well and truly done
Djgoat says: Ditto
mfetchCT425

Joined: February 2009 (1631 votes)

Monday 4:24 AM
With opponent already in decent position, playing for the win with this strong flush and many cuts that significantly help.
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4343 votes)

Monday 5:39 AM
I need my opponent to score fewer than 24 points between this hand and the next one.

Wordle 1,227 5/6

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Jason19

Joined: March 2023 (516 votes)

Monday 6:13 AM
Dealer is 24 out. That's not a given to win and i'm not inclined to help.
JQT says: To its credit, the (2 3 4 7) Hand does have some interesting qualities, in that we have the often desired 4 Card Lead, after which if it is PAIRED, we can parry with our 7 Card for (15-2). This arrangement also makes up a four-card Sweet Sixteen, which will score (31-2) against a Dealer who plays an "X" Card and a 5 Card in any order.
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4514 votes)

Monday 6:14 AM
If it looks easy, you're not seeing it clearly! This is a very interesting Cribbage Endgame Puzzle by fentesk. We are Pone at Hole 102 and thus we need Nineteen Points or nearly TWICE the Pone Average to WIN. "Don't worry," I hear you say, "I get Nineteen-Point Hands ALL THE TIME!"

The Dealer is barking up our tree at Hole 97, needing Twenty-Four Points to steal VICTORY right out from us, and this is well-within the popular "Twenty-Six-Point Theory" espoused by DeLynn Colvert.

It's clear that if we want to WIN quickly, we should Toss (7 7) and while we're highly unlikely to go out during this deal, we should often be able to peg out as the Next Dealer. Unless we cannot. Or unless our Opponent (with a PAIR of 7 Cards in the Crib) goes out FIRST. Therefore, unless quite a number of things happen, Toss (7 7) may end this game in our favor and do so quickly.

And then, there is PATIENCE. Somehow, we all knew she would make an appearance. Patience calls for the Defensive Maneuver of Toss (7 T), and doesn't care if we go out during Next Deal, or even the one after that! Patience takes her time, striving to WIN and do so MORE OFTEN, even if it takes longer.

I'm on the fence today, as I can see the merits of both Toss (7 7) and Toss (7 T). I do often tell other players to be patient, and so I should probably take my own advice. By being patient, we should have more than one way to WIN. 🕓

Oh, let's get this thing over with; let's Toss (7 7) today! After the 9 Card Cut, we now have Eleven Points. Let's lead our remaining Ten "T" Card and plow straight up the gut. If the Dealer has all "X" Cards, we'll peg Four Holes with certainty. 🍷

Wordle 1,227 5/6

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Eolus619 says: Morning John..since you , very logically & eloquently , talked yourself out of being patient I present the other side …The dealer has a 75% chance to earn 12 points on any given hand ..That would put her/his score at 108…This has a decent chance of happening ( even better to keep the current dealer score under 111 next hand ) if the dealer gets a very common six point hand, gets an four point average crib with the 7-10 & with some clever Ras like defensive pegging the dealer is held to two pegging points. The 7-7 averages seven crib points across the board ..only 5/5 averages more. BTW…the game is not over until it’s over..just ask the Chicago Bears about that …NFL yesterday
Eolus619 says: whoops actually 12 points @ 109..sorry for fat fingers
JQT says: This is a fascinating puzzle, and our intrigue begins to develop once we realize and accept the fact that either way, offense or defense, we are likely to lose such an endgame more than 50% of the time. Patience is what I usually prescribe, but I also prefer to leave my fate up to what I can better control, and it seems like the FLUSH allows us to better determine our own fate today. 🍦
JQT says: Patience does have its limits, and no player enjoys sitting idly and watching the Opponent strolling on to VICTORY while we stand by helpless. The FLUSH has a Twenty-Six Cuts (AAAA, 222, 333, 444, 5555, 6c, 8c, 9c, TTT, Jc, Qc, Kc), which will occur 26/46 equals 0.565 or greater than 56% of the time, that allow us to begin with a Dozen Points or more, getting us to at least Hole 114 by completion of this deal. And Six of those Cuts (222, 333) give us Sixteen Points, which will occur 6/46 equals 0.130 or 13% of the time, that will allow us to get to at least Hole 118 by completion of this deal. 🌮 🥤 🧁
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3389 votes)

Monday 6:42 AM
flush... it pays!
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (437 votes)

Monday 6:56 AM
Excellent puzzle. I will choose to be PATIENT and hope to win on the next deal.
lonmower

Joined: June 2016 (809 votes)

Monday 7:34 AM
How many times at game's end as n/d have you tossed something as explosive as 77... and have it blow up in your face? Then think to yourself: "Boy' that was stupid"
SallyAnn3

Joined: March 2020 (1252 votes)

Monday 9:33 AM
A pretty (wasa) flush that can explode. Biting the bullet and cringing whileI toss the 7's. I hope they didn't toss an 8 now.
MarktheShark

Joined: January 2024 (502 votes)

Monday 9:38 AM
Dealer is in good position and I am very unlikely to go out this hand. Dealer counts first next hand. Do I risk giving Dealer a potentially great crib and the chance to go out by next hand? Or, do I try to play defensively and hope to last another hand? Neither choice is appealing. I wonder what the HalscribCLX win/loss percentages are.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5766 votes)

Monday 2:48 PM
I think we should either keep 9pts with the flush and throw the pairs of 7s to opponents crib or play Defense and keep 3pts and throw 7-10. With opponent at 1pt past 4th street positional hole I think this is a good argument for playing Defense so I'll throw a 7-10.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5701 votes)

Monday 2:48 PM
At 102-97* playing a SAFE strategy for the pegging the Win/Loss %s are:

Defense________W1 %____L1 %____W2 %____L2 %
2-3-4-10________9.7_____12.9____44.8____48.8
2-3-4-7_________0.3______4.7____40.4____51.9

2-3-4-10 is very much better for Win %s but 2-3-4-7 is considerably lower for Loss %s. As I'm recommending a SAFE strategy I'll select a 7-10 to discard/.

After the 9 cut I'll lead the 3 and play Optimally (cautious offense):

Lead_____________Net Pegging Points
3______________________(-0.03)
2______________________(-0.36)
4______________________(-0.45)
7______________________(-0.65)
Eolus619 says: hmmm. i would have thought the lead was a 4..since if it is paired the reply is a 7 for 15/2..maybe its the trey because it is safe strategy..but there is no good reply to it being paired..still learning
Ras2829 says: Hi Eolus619: Choosing defense, leading the mid-card of a 3-card sequence is the better approach.
Eolus619 says: thx Ras
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1196 votes)

Monday 3:38 PM
I threw both 7s.
fentesk

Joined: January 2021 (1625 votes)

Monday 4:12 PM
The 7-10 makes the hand substantially weaker than the 7-7 but I think it may be the choice today, really stretching what it may mean to play defense. I feel like we're too far out to depend on the flush/run and two hands of pegging to get us out, but it's certainly possible.

One thing we have going for us, 7-10 can really gum up the crib. Can we hold dealer back at a higher rate than we can accelerate our hand? That's the way I'm going today, but I think it's close enough that even seeing the Crib bot's results a case could still be made that either is the way to go.

Thanks all as always for great comments and considerations!
Ras2829 says: Hi fentesk: Another fine puzzle. Thanks for sharing!
Assman says: Indeed, a splendid puzzle! Thank you, thank you.