October 29, 2024

*** This hand was suggested by Jason19
82-85*  ?
61%
61%
20%
20%
11%
11%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Total votes: 270
Jason19Cribbage pro hand
Goatman

Joined: March 2017 (2534 votes)

Tuesday 3:14 AM
Gotta play to get in position. Full steam ahead.
Ras2829 says: Hi Goatman: How are the kids? Nice to see you at the top of the list this day.
JQT

Joined: October 2008 (4282 votes)

Tuesday 4:03 AM
We are Pone, and we are Three Holes 'shy' of the Dealer, who begins with a massive advantage against us. We wish to become Next Dealer at or beyond the Fourth Street Par Hole 96, but that is a challenging Fourteen Holes in the distance, and it is Four Holes above the Pone Average tally of Ten Points. 🖐🏻 🖐🏻

We are dealt a Double Run that yields Ten Points, plus whatever the Cut Card might add, which will vary all the way from nothing-at-all up to Twenty Points, which would result after Six Cuts (777, 888). The problem is that in order to retain the Double Run, we must relinquish Toss (5 5) into the Enemy Crib! 😬

One positive aspect of the current puzzle is that the Dealer has an awkward position at Hole 85, and in spite of the fact that the Dealer is already ahead of us, the Dealer is also Eleven Points 'shy' of the critical Fourth Street Par Hole 96. This would indicate that we could possibly "get away with" giving away a large Crib at this juncture, as long as it entails us getting an even-larger Hand. 💥

Since we really have no safe discard, and something like either Toss (5 9) or Toss (9 9) might be the best we could manage, I think it's as good a time as any to 'take the plunge' and retain the Double Run. Could we be suffering from "Double Run Hopenosis" gone awry, or Double-Double-Runs Gone Wild? Time will tell. 🙃

Let's Toss (5 5) today, and hope for any of Sixteen Cuts (6666, 777, 888, 99, TTTT) that will yield a Dozen Points or more. This of course means that the remaining Thirty Cuts add NOTHING, but more than half of these are Small Cards that are less likely to boost the two 5 Cards we sent over the board. 🍌

After the Ace Cut, we get NO HELP, but with any luck, the Dealer might have a Crib worth as little as Two Points! We'll lead the 8 Card. 🎱

Wordle 1,228 4/6 🥼

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Inushtuk1 says: Hi John. Is the 8 lead on offense or more optimal?
JQT says: The 8 Card lead minimizes the damage than can be done by the Dealer if we look at a sufficient number of samples, although on any given pegging battle, we can get roughed up pretty badly. I don't think there is an Offensive or Defensive way to lead with such cards; we simply try to limit the risks by leading the 8 Card from the middle of our Run in order to minimize risk in the majority of situations. I think Michael Schell covers the different scenarios on Cribbage Forum somewhere, or maybe he quotes someone else. 🍣 ☕
dec

Joined: April 2008 (6583 votes)

Tuesday 4:21 AM
Seen this arrangements a few times over the years here. So unless its an ultra defensive position or even an end game situation I choose this. dec
Gougie00

Joined: March 2008 (5936 votes)

Tuesday 4:33 AM
I feel like one of those suicidal squirrels that dart in front of your car that you flatten about 1 of 10 times. Thinking I'll make it this time.
kal79

Joined: April 2024 (206 votes)

Tuesday 5:12 AM
If playing defense, 9-9 would be the right call. However, after thinking a bit more, today’s position isn’t one we should react to with full defense. I’ll admit my first reaction was 9-9 as I threw, but overcoming a 6 point starting sacrifice would be challenging. Not to mention, the double run hits 24 with a 7 or 8 cut. Going forward, I’d throw 5-5 and hold my breath unless we are down to the wire and need defense
Assman

Joined: May 2024 (193 votes)

Tuesday 5:34 AM
I never like throwing 5-5 to the enemy crib. But sometimes I have to.
HfxKen

Joined: February 2020 (1050 votes)

Tuesday 5:44 AM
Is this a "play your position puzzle"?
james500

Joined: June 2013 (4119 votes)

Tuesday 5:58 AM
What's the worst that could happen!?

Wordle 1,228 4/6

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Eolus619 says: Morning James500..in case you didn’t know..cribbage can be an odd happen stance game..of course cutting an X with 5/5 in the dealer crib doesn’t help..but what i find interesting is in the top ten most frequent dealer discards only #10…Q/K helps directly..it’s 11-20 that can cause the crib to go boom #13…5/K…#15…3/4…#14…5/J….#18…10/J ….#20…J/K
Eolus619 says: another odd occurrence..dealers toss an actual 5 only twice in the top 20.. 5/J #16 and 5/K #13..they also toss 2/3 #2 & A/4 #12
Eolus619 says: add J/Q above @ #11
hecklebush

Joined: February 2022 (295 votes)

Tuesday 6:08 AM
hecklebush

Joined: February 2022 (295 votes)

Tuesday 6:17 AM
One of the few (possibly only) hands I'll discard 5-5 in hopes of a favorable cut - anywhere from 14 to 20 points. Playout on CribPro resulted in (93-98), a net loss of 2 points. This is OK, since I was the pone and reluctantly tossed 5-5 to my opponent.
wasa

Joined: November 2014 (3182 votes)

Tuesday 7:01 AM
damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead!
guideontheside says: Hey, that's my line! (and how I played it)
Inushtuk1

Joined: July 2016 (1664 votes)

Tuesday 7:28 AM
On offense this is the way to go. On defense I would keep 5-5-8-9(7-9). But even (7-9) is dangerous and the Crib goes boom often. Lead the 8, *not* one of the 9's.
Eolus619 says: Hello Mike..the possible reasons 7/9 can go boom is dealer tosses these in top ten most frequent 7/8...6/9...6/7...6/8...8/9...7/9
Inushtuk1 says: Yeah. Might as well toss (5-5). Oh well.
Sgt Pegger

Joined: July 2017 (463 votes)

Tuesday 8:50 AM
This is the safest throw in my mind while still providing pegging and points in hand options. Probably lead the 8.
Ras2829

Joined: November 2008 (5349 votes)

Tuesday 11:19 AM
Two factors should shape today's decision. Dealer is ten holes short of 4th Street CPZ (95-99) and n/d needs 13 points to deal from that zone on upcoming deal. So, it's bye-bye to that pair of fives. And they average more than 9 points on that side of the board. Dealer could expect a crib of 4.8 on average with any of the 91 discards. Will lead the 8 as that will allow me to advance the count to 27 if dealer plays a X-pointer on my lead. Doesn't work that way if leading the 7. Very little pegging potential in such cards for n/d. Expect not much more than a point on average. N/D is likely to have the upcoming deal a couple of holes short of 4th street CPZ (95-99). It does seem that the seven ought to be the offensive lead with these cards although don't believe dealer will touch n/d lead in this position (pairing or taking a 15-2) if having a choice. Dealer is likely to be playing one or more X-point cards since n/d was dealt none in six.
Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. Why not the 9 lead. Is it similar to not leading the 6 from 6-6-7-8?
Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: The 9 lead encourages the play of the six for a low-risk 15-2. Often even pairing the 6 is passed up as it makes the count 21. Otherwise, am compelled to play 7 or 8 on a 6/9 combination. Dealer is not going to pair a 9 here - will try to play an advantageous card. Perhaps others have had other experience. Would lead a 9 if I knew of the presence of a six. Knowing of 3 sixes or nines would be necessary for me to open with the 9. Yes, works similar to leading a 6 from 6-6-7-8. In that case the 6 encourages the play of a 9.
RubyTuesday

Joined: January 2019 (1075 votes)

Tuesday 2:01 PM
5 5 to dealer’s crib, that should give a decent score to the crib, but keeps points in my hand.
Coeurdelion

Joined: October 2007 (5765 votes)

Tuesday 4:41 PM
I'll compare 7-8-9-9 (5-5), 5D-7-8-9 (5-9) and 5-5-7-8 (9-9):

7-8-9-9: 10pts - 9½pts (Schell: 9.37) = +½pt

5D-7-8-9: 5pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.15) = -1¼pts

5-5-7-8: 4pts - 6¼pts (Schell: 6.39) = -2¼pts

Potential:

7-8-9-9: Improves with 6666, 777, 888, 99, 10101010 = 16 cuts = 16/46 = 34.8% up to 16/17/20pts with 6666, 777, 888, 99 = 12 cuts.

5D-7-8-9: Improves with AAAA. 2222, 3333, 55, 6666, 777, 888, 99 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 9/10/12pts with 6666, 777, 888, 99 = 12 cuts.

5-5-7-8: Improves with 2222, 3333, 55, 6666, 777, 888, 99 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 38/46 = 82.6% up to 7/8/10/12pts with all cuts.

Position:

We need 14pts to reach 4th street positional hole for our next deal so I'll play Offense.

Pegging:

Playing Offense I think 5D-7-8-9 will peg best.

Summary:

7-8-9-9 is best for starting value but 5D-7-8-9 has the most cuts for improvement and 12 cuts for 9-12pts. 5-5-7-8 has slightly fewer cuts for improvement and 12 cuts for 7-12pts. I don't think I'll risk the 5-5 and throw the 5C-9.
HalscribCLX

Joined: February 2008 (5496 votes)

Tuesday 4:41 PM
At 82-85* playing an Offense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

________________Our
Offense___Hand__Pegs_Crib____Total___W2 %___W3 %
7-8-9-9____12.30+1.11+(-9.77)=3.64____9.1____39.3
5-7-8-9*____7.87+1.50+(-6.04)=3.33____1.8____28.6
5-5-7-8_____7.70+1.28+(-5.80)=3.18____1.5____26.0

Offense______L2 %____L3 %
7-8-9-9_______19.5____47.9
5-7-8-9*_______8.5____53.9
5-5-7-8________9.1____53.8

* unsuited 5-9

7-8-9-9 is best for expected averages by 0.31pt. and it is very much best for Win %s; although it is worse for Loss %s. So I'll select 5-5 to discard.

After the A cut I'll lead the 8 and play Offense;

Lead__________Our Pegging Points
8____________________1.19
7____________________1.17
9____________________1.16