October 30, 2024
63% 63% | |||||
19% 19% | |||||
6% 6% | |||||
6% 6% | |||||
3% 3% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
0% 0% | |||||
Total votes: 249 |
Joined: February 2009 (1705 votes) Wednesday 3:14 AM
Full speed ahead here-66 percent of the cuts help us without demonstrably killing us in the crib-I’ll take those odds any day |
Joined: October 2008 (4526 votes) Wednesday 3:14 AM
Keep (2 3 J K) has Twenty-Two Cuts (As, 222, 333, 4s, 5555, JJJ, QQQQ, KKK) that yield Eight Points or more, while Keep (2 3 6 7) has only Three Cuts (666) that yield Eight Points or more. And so, we're done, right? If it were that simple, it wouldn't be a RAS Puzzle! 👻 🎃 💀
Toss (6 7) has a Crib Value of almost 6.5 Points, while Toss (J K) 'chimes in' closer to 4.75 Points, nearly Two Points LESS. With the Dealer back at Hole 100, it's very likely that we will survive to become Next Dealer regardless, when we shall enjoy the Pegging Advantage. Keep (2 3 6 7) also has a three-card Magic Eleven of 2-3-6, and a three-card Sweet Sixteen of 3-6-7! If we lead our Trey, both options remain wide open against a Dealer with "Nickels and Dimes" or 5 Card(s) and "X" Cards. This means we can likely prevail in more than one way after we Toss (J K), but if we Toss (6 7), we risk a large Crib and therefore we might only have one way to prevail. Let's Toss (J K) today, and play the Patient Pegging Game. After the King Cut, we have just Four Points, so we're very likely taking this to another deal, in which we'd like to start from Hole 118 or better. That means we want to peg Three Holes or more during this deal. And we have just the cards that can do it! 🥗 🍵 🍂 Let's lead our Trey and look for the Easy Fifteen, and also "play" both the Magic Eleven and the Sweet Sixteen. Wordle 1,229 3/6 🟨🟨🟨⬛⬛ ⬛🟩🟨🟨🟨 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 |
Joined: July 2017 (692 votes) Wednesday 3:39 AM
I agree with Robs' choice but lately I've been going this way with slightly more success. Might be wrong today but when a 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 gets cut .....it almost makes look smart...well almost. |
Joined: April 2008 (6867 votes) Wednesday 4:38 AM
Going for game hole this deal. Like the odds above. Plus add the 12 spades. Three lead this time. dec |
Joined: December 2021 (1177 votes) Wednesday 5:09 AM
If RAS posted this and it seems too cut-and-dried,I'm concerned that I made the wrong choice... |
Joined: April 2011 (4488 votes) Wednesday 6:11 AM
Need to go out or get close enough to peg out as dealer next hand |
Joined: November 2014 (3397 votes) Wednesday 6:23 AM
Playing to win |
Joined: May 2024 (450 votes) Wednesday 6:32 AM
I'm thinking this gives me the best chance to get to 118 or 119 so I can peg out on the next deal. I have the magic (non-dealer) 11 with 3 cards. I would have preferred to throw T-K to the crib but the J has to go. The K starter give me four in my hand so I need at least another 4 pegging. I'm leading with the 3 and hoping to at least get to 119. Another great Ras puzzle! |
Joined: June 2013 (4355 votes) Wednesday 6:36 AM
Tough spot to be in. 3-2-6 eleven. Plenty of cuts improve the hand. Safe-ish discard. |
Joined: March 2020 (1263 votes) Wednesday 7:25 AM
every cut helps, and better pegging cards.
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Joined: January 2024 (514 votes) Wednesday 8:23 AM
With Dealer in good position here and likely to go out next hand when I am dealing, I need a good cut or my pegging skills to shine. |
Joined: April 2024 (242 votes) Wednesday 9:28 AM
Tough call as we are close to going out, but are we close enough? I’m going to go for it here, tossing 6-7 still gives us all but four cuts (6789) where our hand improves, and a 2 or 3 cut gets us out with no pegs required. An 8 cut or discarded to the crib would sting here, as would 5-X from our opponent, but most cuts get us very close if not out, so I think we should try and get there on this hand. Lead the 3 |
Joined: July 2016 (1841 votes) Wednesday 9:39 AM
The best Offense isn't always keeping the most starting points in our hand. No need to start with only 4 and toss the (6-7). Lead the 3 and hope for 4 pegging points. |
Joined: January 2019 (1196 votes) Wednesday 10:10 AM
I’d much rather give my opponent J K than 6 7. |
Joined: November 2008 (5496 votes) Wednesday 6:03 PM
If choosing offense with dealer at hole 100, the 2-3-6-7 has the edge in combined value because of the good pegging potential with small cards and mid-cards that can peg well. This puzzle submitted because it falls outside any of the playing rules promulgated by self or others. If wanting to play X-pointers with the 2-3, only J-Q comes close. Ten pointers such as 10-K and 10-Q do even worse than the J-K as in his case. The crib average for 6-7 on the other side of the board is 6.175 and J-K averages 4.627. That huge crib difference favoring J-K discard compared to 6-7 and the much better offensive pegging potential more than off-set the greater hand score potential in holding 2-3-J-K. The 3 or 7 lead are very close in pegging potential. Slightly favor the trey since it often lures a 6 for count of 9. Many players assume if n/d held 3/6, would lead the 6. If paired, n/d scores 15-2. N/D does not need two pegs so lead the trey and pair that six for 15-4. With dealer 21 points out, n/d of this hand counts first this deal and has dealer pegging advantage on the next. Don't like the K cut as could result in 8 or more crib. Conversely if dealer discard A-3, 2-4, or a couple of those frequent mid card discards, crib score may be no more than 2-4 points. Don't despair as all one can do is make the best decision possible. So be it! And JQT started the day right on track. Inushtuk1 says: Hi Ras. So are you saying with 2-3-6-7-10-J we should still toss the (10-J)? Ras2829 says: Hi Inushtuk1: Tried this with all the X-pointers in simulated play with same results 75% of the time using all the X-point combinations. Then decided to run query on Cribbage Prof, and Prof showed all X-point discards resulted in higher combined value if choosing offense in this position. Here dealer needs 21 points; so, n/d has pretty good chance to win this game if getting close with dealer pegging advantage next deal. Might be a few holes on the board where it wouldn't work this way for n/d. And didn't simulate or query where a defense strategy seemed appropriate. |
Joined: January 2021 (1128 votes) Wednesday 6:04 PM
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