Wednesday 3:21 AM

5 Card in Crib.

Wednesday 3:37 AM

So many reasonable choices. I am keeping the 9 for defensive pegging, if necessary. This is the best melder and probably the best pegger. After this poor cut, I will hope the play goes X(10)-5(15-2)-5(20-2)-9(29)-Go-A(30)-A(31-4).

Wednesday 4:16 AM

I thought about throwing the 5,6 and I should have.

Wednesday 4:20 AM

I will go with the eleven count this way for pegging and crib potential. dec

Wednesday 5:14 AM

I kept my scant points.

Wednesday 6:32 AM

Ditto

Wednesday 6:33 AM

Congratulation to that 1% who kept A-A-3-9. I, on the other hand, joined forces with the 63% who kept A-A-5-9.

Wednesday 6:54 AM

3-6 is usually such a weak throw, I'll toss 3-5 looking for Xs in crib and still keeping the AA9 together for pegging.

Wednesday 7:26 AM

Do I want the five in the hand (with the A-A-9) or in the crib where often the pone will toss 10xs.I sensed it was a close call and kept the 5 in the hand. Not the best move per Liam but the delta is only 0.1 points.
I am firmly in the herd however I came very close to tossing the five.

Wednesday 7:33 AM

eh.....

Wednesday 7:37 AM

I thought of throwing myself 3 6 but a quick look at the discard tables changed my mind to 3 5

Wednesday 7:57 AM

Wednesday 7:59 AM

ALL cuts improve. Lead the 5

Wednesday 8:00 AM

Am loving being on an island yesterday, and got a lucky cut. 5/6 to mu crib is a favorite toss, esp when the hand is blah

Wednesday 8:15 AM

Hey what's so bad about A-A-5-9(3-6). The only cuts that miss are the 7, the 3, and the Deuce. The 7 cut means 6-7 touchers in the Crib. There's some potential there. The 3 puts a pair in the Crib, and the Deuce puts a 5(2-3) in the Crib. Speak of the Devil; we now have 6 in the hand and 2 in the Crib minimum. Defense to the lead; which for me means dumping my 9 on *any* X-Card lead; hoping Pone cannot score a run of three.

Wednesday 8:48 AM

I'll try 3-5, but 3-6 looks sensible.

Wednesday 11:45 AM

Choosing defense as dealer of hand one, A-A-6-9 because of the defensive escape with that A-A-9 "magic 11" and a crib average of 5.971 with some discard tables showing it slightly more than 6.0. If one considers only potential hand-size the A-5-9-9 wins by a wide margin. Much better to consider all potential points (pegs, hand score, and crib score). Since choosing defense strategy, pegs are deducted and those scored by opponent only. A-A-6-9 gives up fewer pegs. Would pair an Ace if led and score 15-2 on either a 6 or 9 lead. Otherwise, will play off the lead and avoid pegs.

Wednesday 2:52 PM

I think I'll look at A-A-5-9 (3-6), A-A-3-9 (5-6) and A-A-6-9 (3-5) or perhaps 3-5-6-9 (A-A):

A-A-5-9: 6pts + 4pts (Schell: 3.81) = 10pts

A-A-3-9: 2pts + 6½pts (Schell: 6.63) = 8½pts

A-A-6-9: 4pts + 6pts (Schell: 5.97) = 10pts

3-5-6-9: 2pts + 5¼pts (Schell: 5.38) = 7¼pts

Potential:

A-A-5-9: Improves with AA, 4444, 555, 666, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 35 cuts = 35/46 = 76.1% up to 12pts with AA, 555, 999 = 8 cuts.

A-A-3-9: Improves with AA, 2222, 333, 4444, 555, 666, 999 + 16xXs = 38 cuts = 82.6% up to 6/8/12pts with AA, 2222, 333, 555 = 12pts.

A-A-6-9: Improves with AA, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 = 23 cuts = 23/46 = 50.0% up to 8pts with AA, 555, 666, 8888, 999 = 15 cuts.

3-5-6-9: Improves with AA, 333, 4444, 555, 666, 7777, 8888, 999 + 16xXs = 42 cuts = 42/46 = 91.3% up to 6/7/8pts with 333, 4444, 666, 7777, 999 = 17 cuts.

Position:

As First Dealer positional hole is at 8pts so I'll play Defense but try to score the average 16pts or more.

Pegging:

I think the hands with A-A-9, a 3-card magic eleven with a pair of As will peg well.

Summary:

A-A-5-9 and A-A-6-9 start with 10pts but A-A-5-9 has more cuts for improvement and 8 cuts for 12pts compared to 15 cuts for 8pts with A-A-6-9. So I'll throw the 3-6.

Wednesday 2:52 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-A-6-9____5.65+(-2.26)+6.15=9.54____36.2____49.8
A-A-5-9____8.22+(-2.52)+3.54=9.24____36.0____49.0
A-A-3-9____4.78+(-2.48)+6.71=9.01____35.2____47.7
AH-5-6-9___6.78+(-2.04)+4.15=8.89____35.0____48.0

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
A-A-6-9_______25.9____24.5
A-A-5-9_______26.6____25.3
A-A-3-9_______27.2____26.5
AH-5-6-9______26.6____26.1

A-A-6-9 is best for expected averages by 0.30pt. over A-A-5-9 and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 3-5 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Wednesday 2:53 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-A-6-9____5.65+(-2.26)+6.15=9.54____36.2____49.8
A-A-5-9____8.22+(-2.52)+3.54=9.24____36.0____49.0
A-A-3-9____4.78+(-2.48)+6.71=9.01____35.2____47.7
AH-5-6-9___6.78+(-2.04)+4.15=8.89____35.0____48.0

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
A-A-6-9_______25.9____24.5
A-A-5-9_______26.6____25.3
A-A-3-9_______27.2____26.5
AH-5-6-9______26.6____26.1

A-A-6-9 is best for expected averages by 0.30pt. over A-A-5-9 and is slightly best for Win %s and lowest for Loss %s. So I'll select 3-5 to discard.

After the 2 cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Wednesday 7:16 PM

I remember somewhere that the 56 toss to one's own crib is a good thing to do... So that, and the only cut card that doesn't hit hand or crib is the 8. Lucky cuts seem to keep perpetuating my poor judgement.