Friday 3:34 AM

I still have a Magic 11, albeit not as srrong as the 4-7. But I lke the idea of playng defense with 4 different ranks instead of 3. Defense to the lead.

Friday 4:18 AM

Much like yesterday, we have Toss (7 7), although we could also consider Toss (9 J), or Toss (A 4), or even Toss (4 9). There, I considered each of these, and decided against all of them!

Let's Toss (7 7) today. After the King of Hearts Cut, we now have Four Points in our Hand, with prospects for a mediocre Crib.

During the pegging, we do have the two-card Magic Eleven of A-J, but we should be wary of getting 'stuck' with the Lone Ace; therefore, after an "X" Card Lead by Pone, we should probably jettison our Ace right away.

Aggressive peggers may wish to PAIR a Jack Lead, and while we wouldn't be thrilled about trading away Six Points in order to obtain just Four Points, the probability that Pone has a Second Jack is not very high; Pone will often lead a Solitary Jack simply to be rid of it, and avoid getting 'caught' later on the bad end of either a RUN or a Rattle Trap.

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Friday 5:11 AM

Two choices A-4 or 7-7 . Having some element of defense here with a chance of a sizable crib 7/7 for me. dec

Friday 5:21 AM

Ditto.

Friday 8:06 AM

To my eye, A477 9J seems a good way to split these six. Four points and a, "magic 11", in my hand. Close cards, one of which is a Jack, in the crib.

X(10)-7(17)-7(24/2)-7(31/8) would be nice.

Friday 8:30 AM

Tough call. Like keeping the sevens with the ace. 9J could get help from the somewhat common throws of 10K, QK or 10Q.

Friday 8:54 AM

What Dan and James said. I usually would want the A/4 in my crib, but what was left was not thrilling.

Friday 9:09 AM

A-4, 7-7, 9-J or even 4-J? I do not pitch A-4 when there are other reasonable choices. First hand suggests defensive pegging, so I will keep the spread. Close second choice is 9-J.

Friday 9:11 AM

I like this way with the guaranteed A,4 working for us in the crib. If an 8 gets cut ..... I look like a genius. The only other option I considered was the 9,J toss but I'm not a fan of that.

Friday 10:54 AM

I wasn’t sure whether to throw the 7s or 9 J. Not sure whether I did the right thing.

Friday 2:48 PM

At 0*-0 playing a Defense strategy for the pegging the dynamic expected averages and Win/Loss %s are:

_______________Pone's
Defense___Hand_Pegs____Crib_Total___W9 %____W10 %
A-4-9-J____4.76+(-1.96)+5.78=8.58____32.1____45.5
A-4-7-7____6.35+(-2.02)+3.99=8.32____30.8____44.5
7-7-9-J____4.28+(-2.13)+5.42=7.57____29.4____43.5
A-7-7-9____5.96+(-2.09)+3.65=7.52____28.9____43.3
A-7-7-J____5.63+(-2.13)+3.72=7.22____28.2____43.1

Defense______L9 %____L10 %
A-4-9-J_______26.0____27.9
A-4-7-7_______26.1____28.8
7-7-9-J_______25.3____29.2
A-7-7-9_______24.5____29.0
A-7-7-J_______24.4____29.3

A-4-9-J is best for expected averages by 0.26pt. and is slightly best for Win %s and a very close second best for Loss %s. So I'll select 7-7 to discard.

After the K cut I'll play Defense to the lead.

Friday 3:52 PM

Submitted these puzzles back-to-back, thinking that 100% would choose 7-7 this day. Only 39% did so. Yesterday with a 9-9 pair folks discarded 9-9 at a rate of 49%. Choosing defense as opening dealer, will play off the lead although would 15-2 a six if led. Dealer guaranteed peg, four points in hand, and 7-7 averages 5.873 (1,372) to own crib. Don't panic as dealer only needs 7 points to have 50/50 chance to win game. N/D needs 16 out of first hand to overcome dealer advantage. So, limit n/d movement down board is the best thing dealer can do on opening hand.

Friday 3:55 PM

Choosing defense and tossing 7-7 for many of the reasons listed above. Keep the magic 11 and keep the opponent from moving down the board. Not a glamorous hand but hopefully we are able to retain an advantage as we move to hand two!

Friday 6:57 PM

Looks like I'm wrong again for the same reason - I don't like pairs to my own crib